Eagles vs Packers MNF Predictions and Analysis – Week 10 with Kyle Kirms

Eagles vs Packers MNF Predictions and Analysis – Week 10 with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the Swiss NFL Week 10. We’re on to Monday night. We got a good one here. Eagles, Packers in Lambo. Uh, as far as Sunday, I had a good one. I’m actually 5-0 right now. So, if I get Chargers minus 2 and a half, it’ll be a nice 6 and0 sweep. You love to see it. Uh, a nice college football Saturday, too. This is a good weekend for me. So, hopefully the positivity continues. Eagles Packers in Green Bay. Let’s talk about it. I mean, it’s Cooper Russ two and a half points. I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they had a one good game against Kansas at home. When Toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some earth is flat Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very ugly. This is going to be ugly. Hey, get this. So, Pinnacle actually did have this one at a full three briefly. Uh, we’ve been pretty much seeing consistent Philadelphia money. It’s now down to one. Uh, so Green Bay minus one at Pinnacle at the time of recording. All right, Eagles, Packers, let’s talk about it. Uh, Green Bay coming off a home loss to the Carolina Panthers, 1613. And I mean, I got to say, looking back at at the Packers body of work so far this year, they started off the season looking so dominant with a big win over the Lions in the opener. Uh well it was really a dominant first half. The second half they didn’t really do much. Um then a real dominant win over Washington which at the time we thought was awesome. Looking back now, I mean the command the commanders don’t look very good. So it certainly looks less impressive now. Look at what the Packers have done since then. Since week three, I got to say Green Bay’s body of work isn’t that impressive. And I’m not trying to trigger you if you’re a Packers fan. I’m just saying look at what the Packers have done since week three. They lost to Cleveland. They tied Dallas in Dallas. Now, I mean, the offense certainly looked fine, but everyone offense looks excellent against the Cowboys. We just saw the the Cardinals go in there and beat them. Then they had a by-week. They come out of the buy at home against Cincinnati. 2718 was the final score. The Bengals were able to hang around. They needed to come from behind to beat the Cardinals in week seven. They needed to come from behind to beat the Steelers, although they did look dominant in the second half of that Steelers game. Let’s give them some credit. and then they lose a home game to Carolina. So, I’m not trying to say the Packers aren’t a good team, nothing like that. I’m just saying if you take out the first two games of the season and just look at this Packers team since week three, it hasn’t been all that impressive. So, this is a Packers team that could really use a statement win like this over Philadelphia. A win like this would kind of silence all of those all those rumblings that, hey, maybe the Packers aren’t very good. That would silence it with a win over Philadelphia on Monday Night Football. Huge NFC matchup here. We actually get to see the rematch of the Brazil game from last year. Remember Jordan Love got hurt on the weird grass. It was It was actually week one last year. The Eagles won 34-29 in what was a very strange football game to watch. You would think 34-29 Eagles Packers. It was It’s a weird game on a on a weird field there at Brazil. So, we get the rematch of that one. So, let’s match these two teams up on the field. And right off the bat, we know these two teams are going to be battling to see who can establish the run cuz both these teams are similar in a sense that they both like to run the football a lot. They’re first in uh the Eagles are first in rushing frequency. The Packers are fourth. They both move move at a slow pace. The Eagles are 30th, the Packers are 24th. Both teams love to control the game by holding on to the ball, running the ball, controlling the clock. Both teams are similar in that respect. So, we got kind of a battle to see who is going to be in control of this game. Uh, so I guess let’s start. Do we think Green Bay’s defense can stop the Eagles on the ground? Now, the year-long numbers, the Eagles offensively are 12th in success rate per rush, fourth in EPA per rush. Packers defense 19th and 17th. Packers actually, their defense against the run trending in the wrong direction. We’ll talk about it in a second. Philadelphia’s run game, it hasn’t been great this year. I know the seasonl long numbers make it look great. They’re a little bit padded. I mean, they went nuts last week. Well, not last week. Two weeks ago against the Giants. 9.3 yards per carry, 278 yards on the ground, 60% success rate per rush. That one game is skewing the Eagles offensive numbers on the ground. In the four games before that, they were really struggling to get the run going. Just 3.1 yards per carry, 64.3 rushing yards per game, 32.4% success rate per rush. So, I don’t know if one home game against the worst run defense in the NFL is enough to just make us forget all the problems Philadelphia has been having on the ground. Not to mention, they’re going to be missing Cam Jurgens again in this one. Their starting center, he’s been ruled out. Now, he didn’t play in the Giants game. Didn’t seem to matter. As we just saw, they rush for about 500 yards in that game. A home game against the Giants, though. Now, they’re going into Lambo. And here’s the thing. I don’t really know what I think about this Packers defensive front. this Packers defense against the run. Through the first three games, they were looking like they might be the best defense in the NFL. They were allowing less than 65 rushing yards per game, under 3.3 yards per carry, under 29% success rate per rush. They were looking like the most elite defensive front in the NFL. In the five games since then, it has not looked nearly as good. 48.3% success rate per rush is not good at all. Teams have been handing the ball off and moving the chains against this Packers defense. and look specifically at their last two games. They allowed 128 rushing yards per game, over 5 yards per carry, 47.7% success rate per rush. So, this Packers run defense, after looking so strong through the first few games, it hasn’t looked that great in the last five games, and it seems to be trending in the wrong direction here. I mean, is it crazy to think that the weakness of this Green Bay defense might be stopping the run? Remember, they acquired Micah Parsons, but they traded Kenny Clark in that deal. So, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that stopping the run might be a problem for this Packers defense, and we’ve certainly seen that over the last few games. Whether or not the Eagles are going to be able to run the ball in this game, I can kind of see both sides of the argument. I mean, on one hand, it’s looking like the weakness of the Packers defense, like we just said, the Eagles are a run first offense with one of the most talented RBs in the NFL in Saquon Barkley. But on the other hand, the Eagles run game, the numbers are skewed from one explosive game against the Giants. It’s been pretty inconsistent all year and Green Bay just lost a home game against Carolina where the Panthers went into Lambeau Field and were running the ball. So, I would imagine that stopping the run is going to be a point of emphasis for this Packers defense after seeing Carolina come into your home field and run the ball and beat you outright. Now, you got Saquon Barkley coming in on prime time. I would imagine taking the runaway is going to be a point of emphasis here for Green Bay. So, I can see both sides of the argument there. I honestly think the more important question is, can Green Bay stop Herz from throwing the ball? Because Jaylen Herz has been on a rampage recently in his last four games. 267 passing yards per game, 1241 pass rating. He’s handling pressure well. He’s even seen some pressure. He’s handled it extremely well. Jaylen Herz is playing arguably the best football of his entire career right now in terms of throwing the football. Now, we know the Packers defense is definitely capable of generating pressure off the edge, but Philadelphia has two of the best offensive tackles in the NFL, and Jaylen Herz has been excellent under pressure so far this year. And look, Bryce Young didn’t do a ton through the air last week against Green Bay. I mean, it was windy as hell. They were mostly running the ball. It was a low-scoring game. So, they did they did a good job against the pass against Bryce Young, but in their four games before that, I mean, the Packers defensive numbers against the pass don’t look all that great. Pittsburgh, Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas. They allow 259 passing yards per game. Success rate per drop back over 51%. An average opponent pass rating of 108. So the Packers defense against the pass hasn’t been that great either. I think Philadelphia is going to move the ball in this game. Jaylen Herz looks excellent. Think they might be able to run the ball a little bit. I think Philadelphia is going to be able to sustain drives in this game. The question comes on the other side of the ball. Can we trust the Eagles defense to make stops here? Green Bay’s offense. it it. Yes, it’s been a little streaky at times, but when Jordan Lo’s got clean pockets to throw from, when that run game’s working, it’s one of the more unstoppable offenses in the NFL. So, I do think the Eagles are going to be able to sustain drives offensively, but are they capable of making stops? The Eagles defense on the season 18th in success rate, 17th in EPA per play, the Packers offense third and third. But we do know the recipe for stopping this Green Bay offense. Put pressure on Jordan Love. He’s got a 42-1 passer rating under pressure so far this year. So, the blueprint’s there. You know how to beat Green Bay. Get pressure on Jordan Love. When he’s got a clean pocket, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He will destroy you from a clean pocket, but you get some pressure on him. You can slow down this Packers offense. Here’s the problem. Green Bay’s offensive line is excellent in pass protection. Looks like Zack Tom’s going to play. Aaron Banks missed a few games. He’s not even on the injury report here. So, the Packers offensive line has done a great job in pass protection and they’re they should be completely healthy, which is not which has not been the case for most of this season. The problem with the Packers offense injury-wise are the receiving weapons. Obviously, there’s no Tucker Craft. There’s no Jaden Reed. Uh Dantavian Wixs is also listed as questionable. Uh the rookie Golden that they got, he’s listed as questionable as well. And we don’t really know the impact of not having Tucker Craft out there. He just got hurt in the Carolina game. And Jordan Love played what might have been his worst game of the year. An 81 passer 80.1 passer rating in the game. So, and he had clean boxes to throw from in that game as well. He was only pressured on 28.9% of his drop backs. Look, I don’t think it’s fair to point at this performance and say, “Hey, Jordan Love sucks without Tucker Craft.” I don’t think that’s I don’t think that’s accurate, but he’s been a huge part of the offense. And I think if you’re a Packers fan, you got to be a little bit concerned moving forward. your receiving weapons. Uh, you’re dealing with injuries in terms of receiving weapons here. And I really think we’re about to see this Eagles defense turn it up a bit. Maybe not in this game. This is a tough one. Monday Night Football and Lambo. Maybe not in this game, but I think down the stretch we’re going to see the Eagles defense look a lot stronger. Remember, earlier in the season, they were dealing with some injuries. Uh, Nico Dean, one of their edge rushers, Quinan Mitchell got hurt, Jaylen Carter got hurt. So, they were dealing with some injuries earlier in the season. They’re now healthier. And in addition to that, what was the glaring weakness with this Eagles defense coming into the season and through the first month of the season? Lack of a pass rush on the edge. They have the pass rush up the middle, but lack of edge rushers. Well, one, they added Jaylen Phillips, the guy from the Dolphins. He’s very talented, very good edge rusher. They also brought Brandon Graham back, who’s expected to play. So, they may have addressed their biggest weakness here, the Eagles defense. Now, the Eagles do like to run some man coverage from time to time, over 29%. It’s actually ninth most in the NFL. Jordan Love has cooked on man coverage this year, but with the Eagles secondary fully healthy and no Jaden Reed, no Craft, it’s tough to say. And in terms of running the ball, which is probably what we should be talking about. Green Bay wants to run the ball. Philadelphia seems to really be shoring things up. In their last two games, they’re allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, 79 rushing yards per game. So, it looks like the Eagles run defense is coming around as well. Oh, they had that uh that Thursday night loss to the Giants where Scataboo was running on them. Since then, the Eagles defense really looks strong. Now, does that mean they could go into Lambeau Field and stop the Packers from running the ball? Stop Josh Jacobs from having an efficient game? I’d say probably not. In their last five games, the Packers are averaging 4.4 yards per carry as a team, over 45% success rate per rush. So, just because the Eagles uh defense is playing better against the run, doesn’t mean they can stop the Packers from from running the ball. I personally think both offenses are going to be able to sustain long drives in this one. I think both offenses are going to have successful games. So, I guess I would point towards an over at 44 and a half. The problem is both these offenses run the ball. They both move so slowly that I just can’t count on a high-scoring game in a in in a football game like that. I can’t count on a ton of points. So, I couldn’t get there with that. I did take the Eagles at plus two and a half uh for the simple fact of that number seemed off to me. These are the reigning Super Bowl champions. And based on what we’ve seen this year, how do we downgrade the Eagles and upgrade the Packers? I mean, if the Eagles are catching two and a half points in Lambo, that means it would be Packers minus a half a point on a neutral where the market is now telling me the Packers are better than the Eagles. That was off. So, I took the Eagles at plus 2 and 1/2. The line now looks more how I think it should be. On a neutral, I’d say Eagles by 1 and a half, two points. So in Lambo it should be about Green Bay minus a half. Green Bay minus one. So the line is probably where it should be now. I am on the Eagles though plus 2 and a half. Go Birds. Thanks for watching live streams at midnight Eastern time as always. If you’re able to make it, would love to see you in the comments. To have ourselves a uh a good Monday Night Football. Should be a great game. responsibly. He

Kyle Kirms goes through the Monday Night Football games between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. Week 10 – Monday, November 10th.

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