I’m Ben Clemens of FanGraphs – AMA

33 comments

1. Who is most likely to be overpaid and wind up with an albatross of a contract?

2. You (and I think also Meg Rowley) had some background in finance before making the switch to analytical sportswriting, and in your big projects like the trade value and free agent lists you often make reference to that earlier era of your life.

   So I guess I’m curious about what tools you got from that finance work that have helped most in your baseball writing? And also, what do you miss least about that prior career?

3. Will the Yankees have significant competition for Bellinger’s services given his poor road splits and underlying numbers?

   He’s a fascinating player to me compensation wise because it seems like he will easily be an above average player playing with the short porch, but has significant risks if he signs elsewhere.

4. In this AMA, I will call you Ben, and Ben Lindbergh will be Other Ben

   Anyway, spin me a yarn. Which, if any, free agents will the Yankees get? Is it just like, Bellinger and then nobody? Or Grisham if he counts?

   Do they actually have a chance for Imai and/or Okamoto? I feel like the Yankees COULD pitch Okamoto on a LeMahieu style “You will play every day, just not at the same place every day” type deal, but is he going to want to do that while also acclimating to a new league, culture, and lifestyle? Or will he just go to a team that has an open 1B/3B/Corner OF/DH spot for him to just play every day and not worry about playing time/being platooned?

5. Hi Ben, thank you for your coverage. I’m wondering what are your top 3 major league ballparks to visit and why. Thank You in advance!

6. Ben, I’m granting you the powers of becoming the Nationals GM for one day, and one day only. Acknowledging their limited spending and the last year of Strasburg’s contract, which of these contracts would make the most sense for them to pursue?

   I look at their roster and really don’t know what they focus on and what they do. They’re in a really precarious spot, even if they get a good haul from Gore, so I was curious if you saw any natural fits for them at SP, 1B, whatever.

7. Thanks for doing the ama!

   Is imanaga/gallen and okamoto a reasonable ask for the angels or am I delusional?

8. Do you believe the “Tucker to the Dodgers” noise or do you think it is more of an attempt to drive up his market?

9. What the heck is up with Gallen, and is there a chance he is still a great pitcher?

10. Back in August, the Orioles extended Samuel Basallo. I remember at the time a lot of chirping about this signaling an impending trade of Adley, or at least that the Orioles would entertain offers. I haven’t heard much about this since. Have you? Do you think there’s any truth to the idea that Baltimore would move Adley? Or was that all hokum?

    Not an FA question of course, but thanks anyway for your time Ben 🙂 love your work!

11. Are the Orioles still in the market for an outfielder after signing Taveras? Currently they have Cowser, O’Neill, and Beavers starting. Which FA would you recommend?

12. Not a great question for you, probably, but this has bugged me for so long:

    When looking at the leaders pages, you can use a positional split for hitters. Go there now and filter on this season, American League, Positional Split: as OF.

    Cody Bellinger is listed as 168 games, because he has some games where he played multiple OF positions I guess. His player page, under fielding for OF shows 178 games. I don’t really get why one says 168 and another says 178.

    Can you suggest to someone an option to fix that with an extra checkbox like “combine split games” or however it should be worded so it just shows how many games they played instead of crediting them for multiple games played because they switched positions?

13. In the Effectively Wild bold predictions game this year, both of your correct predictions involved Rangers starting pitchers (deGrom with more than 150 IP and less than 4 WAR, Corbin with more than 100 IP). Where did you get your insider information on the Texas rotation??

14. Any major changes coming to how any Fangraph’s stats are calculated? How often are subjective stat calculation formulas (eg fWAR) tinkered with or reconsidered? Thanks Ben!

15. Ben, love your work, longtime FG reader.

    If I show up to Josh Naylor’s house with a boombox in the pouring rain, do you think that will make it more likely that he comes back to Seattle? The song I was going to play on repeat is “Stan” by Eminem (his walk-up song)

16. Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed for 12/325 a couple of years ago. Knowing what we know now, what do you think he should have gotten? Obviously his playoff performance was context dependent, but just knowing what we do now about how his game has translated.

    Basically, if you could go back in time and be a GM two offseasons ago, what would you be willing to offer him? What would a long term contract for a 25 year old pitcher who we know can be an MLB ace look like?

17. How do you use FIP in relation to other pitching stats when evaluating pitchers in your role?  I like the stat but sometimes am not sure if I or others are leaning on it too little or too much when it comes to judging performance and projecting performance.

18. Uhhhh . . . you got any more of those yoshinobu yamamotos ?

19. How do you think fans of small market, generally low spending teams – who have virtually never seen their teams even mentioned in the discussion regarding signing any top FA ever – should feel about a salary cap and floor situation, and the potential lock out to get there?

    Blame their owner for being poor/cheap? Blame the system? Just accept that the system as it exists is better for the players, and cheering for a small market team means cheering for an underdog? Actually be in favor of implementing a cap and floor system even though it’s likely anti-labor? Some other option?

20. How much weight do you give to Kyle Tucker’s injury history and ineffectiveness in the second half this year? In other words, would you want your team to go over the top of your $300ish million to sign him? 

    -An Eager Cubs Fan

21. How much will the contract Diaz receives affect the rest of the reliever market? Would it be likely that if Diaz crosses the $20m Aav that other high end relievers like Suarez and Williams might receive an offer within a couple mill aav of that?

22. You are going on a four mile walk on the beach. What is the best dog breed to take with you to maximize how much fun you have?

23. The Cubs in their focus on “intelligent spending” have, I will grudgingly say, sometimes found very good value in reclamation projects (a la Matthew Boyd). What players do you see as potentially delivering that kind of value who are either lower on this list or perhaps off of it entirely?

24. Hi Ben, love your work on the site and on podcasts. RIP to the Fangraphs podcast.

    I know you’re not particularly focused on prospects, but as we approach another CBA I wonder if you can reflect on how much has changed in recent years in terms of competitive balance vs prospect capital, because the two seem to be moving apart. Five years ago it seemed that building up a great farm system was highly likely to lead to competitiveness, and now I cannot even name the top farm systems. The Dodgers? That doesn’t feel right.

    I guess I’m a little nostalgic for the promise of a team like the 2015 Cubs or the Padres system at its height. Do you feel we’ve lost something in terms of dreaming on prospects?

25. How many games have you covered in person, and is there one you remember the most fondly or vividly?

26. What areas of defensive value analysis do you think are the most solid and the most shakey?

27. Could any shortstop with good range and above average sprint speed be an average or above average centre fielder?

28. Hey Ben! Big fan of your and the crews work over at FanGraphs.

    Gotta ask as a Jays supporter: Do you think of Shota Imanaga as fixable, or is he what he is- a solid pitcher who fills the strike zone but also gives up tanks. Ask because he seems right in the Jays bucket, but he may command a multi-year contract that they might not be into.

    Thanks in advance!

29. Which of the top 50 free agents do you think would win in a 50 man chess tournament?

30. Any pitchers who are on a one to two year prove it deal trajectory you like?

31. Hey Ben which under 23 year old player in the NPB/KBO are you most excited to see in the future that you think most MLB fans aren’t aware of yet.

    I’m personally excited to see more of Kim Do-yeong KBO 3B, Hiroto Takahashi NPB P, and Shion Matsuo NPB C

32. Most people seem to think that someone will sign Kyle Tucker to a megadeal approaching $400 million, but the projections are significantly down on him. What is your take on how he will age, and would you want your team to be the one paying him a 10+ year, $400 million deal?

33. The Cardinals will next make the playoffs in _____?