Could Dylan Cease Be the Astros’ New Ace? Free-Agent Shocker or Pass?

Could Dylan Cease Be the Astros’ New Ace? Free-Agent Shocker or Pass?

All right. Uh, John Morosei said there’s a good possibility that Dylan CE is an Astro. Here’s what John Morosei had to say. Dylan CE to the Astros probably has as much of a chance of happening as any other free agent prediction out there. What do you think about that, Joe? It feels like Dylan Cece to the Astros is essentially a done deal at this point with the way statement. No, it’s not because John Marusi is not the only one. Like the way that other people are talking about Dylan CE and the Astros, it feels like it’s everyone everyone’s all in on it. If if everyone is in the belief that this is a this is the match between Dylan CE and the Astros, just feels like there’s there’s something to it at this point. Did you say it’s a done deal? Is that what you said? Yeah. Just just bookmark that one for later, Brian. Let’s uh let’s save that one. I don’t believe that the Astros are going to play pay any of these projections. Like the the projections that are out there for Dylan Cece, you think Jim Crraer is paying this? This is my hangup, Joe, because I I agree that the Astros are obviously interested in Dylan CE. They try to trade for him at the deadline. There is proof in the pudding that the Astros sign guys that they failed to trade for at the deadline. See Josh her, but they didn’t sign Josh her until late in the offseason and that came after a Kindle Braveman injury. Was that, you know, acting out because of that or was that them wanting a guy that they wanted at the deadline? Would they have signed him if Kendall Greyman never got hurt? I tend to doubt it. Actually, my bach here, sorry for the pun. The projections we look at for Dylan CE is like six years, $175 million. You think Jim Crane’s paying that? I would like him to. Okay, that’s a very different than this is like a done deal. It’s if if you watch if you look how this last season played out and like you have to replace Farmer Valdez. You have to go get a starting pitcher of that is good that can contribute to this team and help you make a playoff coach that barely misses time with injury. He checks all those boxes. Jim Crane has seen all these other teams spend money and he has so much money coming off his books. You don’t have to pay Jose anymore. You don’t have to pay Raphael Montero anymore. You have money to spend. So now’s the time to spend it. So, if he was ever going to do it, it feels like now is the moment that you go get a starting pitcher to replace Rom Valdez to help this baseball team. And you tried your hardest to go get him at the deadline. You you were steadfast in what you wouldn’t give up, but he was nearly an Astro for a reason. So, I would like to think that now is the time to spend money and to fix your rotation because you can’t fix it with cheap options with what you have on your roster right now. You got to go get feel like you’re walking it back a bit. Why? Because you said it’s as good as a done deal and now you’re saying I think he should do it. Well, the way they’re reporting it sounds like a done deal. Do Do you think that Jim Crane would give him six years, 175 million? Yes. Okay. I I don’t that that’s where our impass is at. That’s why I don’t feel like it’s a done deal. That’s why I feel like it’s a radical stance to have that it that it’s a done deal because I don’t think that Jim Crane’s going to pay 6175. Do you know the most money that the Ashes have ever given to a starting pitcher? No. $85 million. Is that Lance? I think it was Javier. Okay. Right. It’s Christian Javier or Lance McCullik. I mean, the biggest contract they gave out is still with Josh Reic, isn’t it? Before Josh her if anything may maybe Josh her passed Josh Reic’s contract and Reic was with the Reic was with Crane, but he wasn’t. Maybe it was McCull’s because Javier was five years 64 million. Yeah. So Lance is above that. So his was the 80. So I get why they haven’t done it. And I know now per year they’ve spent that money on Justin Verlander but it wasn’t the length of contract right that we’re talking about with Dylan C’s. But this colors five years 85 but this is the opportunity to do it that you like you you need to solve your rotation and adding a $15 million Justin Verlander which also feels like it’s going to happen based on the way that Chandler Rome has talked about it. It’s just not enough. And you’re seeing these teams add to the spend money and add and try to win. You talk about the window always being open. Well, this keeps the window open or it reopens the window, I guess, for your championship if you add a pitcher of this caliber. So, the Astros, what what was they have like around 25 million under the CBT? I think that’s whenever we talked about it last. It’s about where it’s at. If if it’s a sixy year $175 million deal, that’s 29 million. A little north of 29 million. So that pushes you back into the CBT. Now, there are ways to get creative and shed salary. I mean, the Astros last year ate some of Ryan Presley’s salary in a trade because they wanted to offload his contract. Uh there’s ways to trade guys that they want to offload. Like they could get out of the Christian Walker contract, but they’re probably going to have to eat a decent amount of that. I don’t know how much. He’s scheduled to make 40 million over the next two years. They’re not I don’t think they’re offloading that for nothing. I think they would have to retain a good amount of salary there. Uh Jesus Sanchez is a guy that you can offload his contract. I think you could offload him pretty easy. I think he’s around what six and a half. Mishu Dubon, he’s I think arbitration estimates about seven. I think you could trade him. So there are ways to get salary. So like the even though that Dylan CE would currently push you over the the luxury tax into the luxury tax based on his projected salary and projected contract doesn’t mean there there aren’t ways for them to be creative to be able to fit it under the CBT. But that’s my hangup, Joe. Like I I don’t think that that Jim Crane is going to go $90 million more for a starting pitcher than he’s ever done before. That and it’s a it’s a fair concern. I just I don’t know how you continue to operate this way and start to fill some of these gaps in your roster if you’re not going to spend and and it’s more than obviously guys like what Christian Walker got and Jose Bra got but he has shown to spend money just hasn’t been super big. It always feels like to me the luxury tax is the thing that he doesn’t want to go over. So, if you can find a way to get under that and also bring in Dylan CE that feels like best of both worlds here that you remove a guy, you move Paradus to first base, you get a new starting pitcher to replace Romaldez and you’re cooking at that point and you solve your money problems and it’s not a 10-year contract. Like, it’s six. It’s six. Like, that’s fine. I wouldn’t do it. I wouldn’t sign Dylan Sees to a six-year $175 million deal. Personally, I would not. Um, if the if the Astro No, I don’t like signing starting pitchers in their 30s to big money. Like, you’re you’re investing $30 million for the next six years to a guy that, yes, has been durable, but is going to be in his 30s and is coming off one of the worst years he’s had in a long time. Yeah, but I I’ll always go back to the default. If the Astros sign him, I trust him at this point. That’s where the Astros have they’ve earned our earned my trust. If you acquire if they acquire a pitcher, they see stuff in him that they can fix and bring out the best in him. And maybe the Padres’s couldn’t do that, but you look at what they’ve done with Kikuchi and guys like that. I just if if they see the the stuff in in Dylan season, I mean, if they can do that with anybody, why spend 175 for six years on a guy? Well, you have to like the guy. The guy’s got to have the stuff. You can’t just fix anyone. They got to have something that the Astros like. He does have good stuff. Dylan Cece. And I mean, his his peak is very, very good. Uh, second in Sai Young a few years ago, fourth in Sai Young two years ago. Uh, I I personally wouldn’t give him 175 for six. Now, if the Astros sign him to $175 million six-year contract tomorrow, would I be excited? You’re darn right I’d be excited. Uh, but I personally wouldn’t. I wouldn’t do it. And I and again, I don’t I’m not as strong in thought that the Astros are going to sign Dylan CE. I’m not as strong in thought as you, as John Morose, as others. I think they’re second in the Vegas odds behind the Braves for some reason. I just my hesitation is Jim Crane giving out that big of a contract. I’ll believe it when I see it. That’s it’s a totally fair point and I can’t really counter it besides that you got to spend money at some point to replace these guys on this roster. Like what do you you can’t you’re going to trade Paradus instead for an arm, but that pitcher is most likely not going to be as good as Dylan Ces could be. So I just don’t think it it doesn’t raise your ceiling as much as you can if you go somewhere else. The Astros have had way better success trading for guys and developing guys than they’ve had signing guys. That’s true. Like all of their all of their pitchers like I mean just name the best pitchers in the golden era of Astros baseball. Like Justin Berlander you traded for him. Garrick Cole you traded for him. Rom you developed. Hunter Brown you developed. Lance McCulla you developed. Christian Javier you developed. Like the best free agent was probably Charlie Morton in the starting rotation. probably Charlie Morton and he was really good, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not those other guys. Wayade Miley maybe. Yeah, I’d say Morton’s the top one there of the guys that you signed, but you don’t have the farm system to go out and trade for a lot of guys right now. I don’t know how you go and make one of those acquisitions at this point. Yer, you could do Einer. I’m open to the Yiner conversation. I’m not opposed to trading Yiner. Bryce. Yeah, you can trade Bryce Matthews. That’s Jacob Melton. Like that’s I mean still it’s not probably not good enough like for a top arm but I mean you said that you like CE’s stuff right like the Astro you trust the Astros they find a guy with stuff that they like you trust them what if it’s what if it’s Sandy Alcantara and they want to get out of that contract great like what if it’s Joe Ryan like he would cost more obviously what if it’s that uh Mackenzie Gore guy like hey we love his stuff you know um my my plan would be more to trade for a guy that you like and then sign a starter that can fill out your back end of the rotation. I just don’t like giving huge money to pitchers in their 30s. Yeah. I mean, I know that’s that’s a long philosophy of yours that you just don’t believe in it, but it’s I just don’t know if you have the because I would also prefer them to go out and trade for a pitcher versus sign Dylan CE. I think the options on the trade market are better than him. I just don’t think they can do it. I don’t think they have the capital to go out and make those moves, especially when you’re going to see teams that have more loaded farm systems that are also in the same conversations and rumors around guys like Sandy Contra and Joe Ryan that the Astros can’t compete with like the Red Sox for Joe Ryan right now if they wanted to go get it. Yeah.

The Houston Astros have a glaring need for starting pitching — and Dylan Cease might just be their solution. MLB insiders like Jon Morosi say the fit between Cease and the Astros “probably has as much of a chance of happening as any other free-agent prediction out there.”
But here’s the catch: Cease is projected to command six years and up to $175 million, and the Astros have historically been very cautious with long-term pitching contracts.

In this video, we dig deep into:
🎯 Why Cease is suddenly linked to the Astros and how his pitching profile (200+ Ks for five straight seasons) makes him a tantalizing option.
💸 Whether Astros owner Jim Crane will move off past precedent (their largest SP guarantee was ~$85 million) and commit to a big deal.
🔍 How the Astros could “get creative” under the CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) to make this happen — and whether they should sign or trade for the arm.

📊 The risk-vs-reward: Cease is durable, elite in stuff, but recent ERA struggles. Can Houston bet big and come out ahead?
Just Baseball
👉 Comment below: Would you pull the trigger on Dylan Cease for the Astros right now? Or is the cost and risk too high?
👍 Like the video if you believe Houston should go all-in this offseason.
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