DK’s Daily Shot of Pirates: ‘More flexibility’ on payroll?

DK’s Daily Shot of Pirates: ‘More flexibility’ on payroll?

[Music] [Applause] Do not get your hopes up. I’m not saying that to be negative. I’m not saying that to be a downer. I’m not saying that for any reason other than you deserve to not get your hopes up as it relates to anything about this franchise as currently constituted. Good morning to you. Good Wednesday morning. I’m Don Kvachovich of DK Pittsburgh Sports. This is Daily Shot of Pirates. It comes your way bright and early every weekday. If you’re into football andor hockey, I also offer daily shots of Steelers and Penguins that I hope you’ll additionally check out. Ben Cherington along with the other 29 general managers in Major League Baseball are attending their annual meetings in Las Vegas. Cherington spoke out there briefly and although this technically wasn’t news because he has spoken something similar to this effect before, maybe it’ll be taken as news by some because they wouldn’t have known that he has said it before. He stated, and I quote directly, that the Pirates will have more flexibility than we’ve had,” end quote in previous off seasons under his tenure. That means almost nothing. It’s not nothing. It does strongly suggest that there won’t be a cut in payroll. But I’ve been sharing with you for a while on this program that payroll is not expected to go up in any significant way for the 2026 season. And I’m here to explain today how that dovetales with what Cherington said because it sounds like, oh yeah, payroll is going up. No. When he says that there’s more flexibility than there’s been in previous seasons, it’s infinitely more likely that he’s referring to the flexibility that was created by trading both David Bednar and Kabrian Hayes. And while I’m at it, I can actually throw Bailey Falter in there since Falter was going to be an arbitration guy. And from there, I’ll pile on top of that Mitch Keller, the subject of this particular program all week long. Mitch is due to make close to 17 million this year, would be the Pirates highest paid player. But even with Mitch in the fold, if you look at all of the Pirates current payroll commitments toward 2026, meaning guys who are either signed or the salaries that they’re likely to have either through arbitration or as 0ero to3 guys, meaning the first three years in the league. And what you have according to spot track as a projected total payroll based on that roster, the one that’s here right now is $61.2 million. Which means that if you look at last year’s final payroll where the season ended, this again according to spot track 84.4 million. So you’ve got a gap there of about 22 million. So, does Cherington have more flexibility than he’s had in other recent seasons? Yes. Flexibility also can mean the green light to trade people out, to trade pitchers out, to trade Mitch out. So now, if you trade Mitch, your payroll commitment goes from 62 to 45. That leaves an obvious gap of 39 million from what the Pirates spent last season to what they’d be able to allocate if Mitch was traded for no payroll coming back. I mean, obviously that’s not super plausible, but I’m trying to keep the math as clean as I can here. So, it’s not about payroll going up. It’s not about some revived commitment on the part of ownership. It’s not anything of the kind. Everything that I’ve heard is this thing is staying. This payroll lid is staying where it was. So, all that happened was that the GM found a convenient slice of terminology to make it sound like, “Hey, we’re going to be able to do this because our ownership believes in blah blah blah.” Uh-uh. Uh-uh. In fact, I’ll take this further. If Mitch is traded and you’re talking about a gap of $39 million or a quote flexibility, end quote, of $39 million. This GM doesn’t have it in his DNA to be capable of spending that kind of money. And I’m not sure that I would either if I was him because then I would know that I can’t identify hitting to save my life and I need hitters and I’d be petrified to be putting that kind of money out there because I’d be positive that I’m going to blow it. So yeah, anyway, don’t take that too far. In fact, don’t take it anywhere. We come back J1Q. [Music] If you’re looking for a great dining experience, look no further than Northshore Tavern. Located directly across Federal Street from PNC Park, next door to Mike’s Beer Bar, Northshore Tavern is Pittsburgh’s home for steak on a stone. Enjoy your steak finished on a hot lava stone in front of you, where you ensure each piece is cooked to exactly your liking. or try their rotating selection of entre, hot sandwiches, salads, and burgers, all while enjoying the ambiance dedicated to the great players and history of the Pittsburgh Pirates all around you. Come see why everyone’s talking about Northshore Tavern and Steak on a Stone. 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Use promo code hit at checkout. That’s hit. The only way to get 20% off is to go to jointdeme.com/hit and enter hit at checkout. That’s jointdeme.com/hitcodeh hit. [Music] Today’s J1Q comes from Barry who says, “Will we get much from Mitch Keller? I know he’ll be traded because ownership wants to cut costs, but I don’t think other owners around Major League Baseball have an appetite to deal with the lockout looming. Now, Barry, I know you know better than this, but just to clarify for everyone else who will hear that second part of what you said, players don’t get paid in a work stoppage, whether it’s a lockout or a strike. Players don’t get paid. So, it’s not like you’re worried about what you’ll be spending while the game is shut down. What you’re referring to, I’m sure, is what happens after the stoppage, after there’s a new agreement, after ideally there’s a salary cap system installed. But to go to your base question there, there’s two ways to answer it. One is the Pirates should get a really healthy return for Mitch. Mitch is a good pitcher. He’s still in his prime. He’s got the one thing that executives value more than anything else in this particular sport, and that’s durability. He will get you the innings you want your starter to get you. He will be tough enough to take the ball when he’s not feeling it. He will come with a live arm year after year. If you think I’m oversimplifying it with that answer, I could round up probably within a handful of days a handful of executives to support me on this count. They feel that strongly about it. The worst usage of any team’s payroll, whether it’s really high or you know where the Pirates are, is on the IIL by a zillion miles. There’s nothing worse than that because it’s doing nothing for you. Now, add to that that Mitch is signed through the 2028 season at what I confident most people would consider to be a reasonable rate for a starting pitcher of his durability and performance. He’ll make in the next three seasons 16.9 18.4 4 and 20.4. And once you factor into it that in the event of a salary cap system, although you’re going to see the teams that are the biggest spenders constricted, you’re also going to see because of the nature of the way the system works, way more teams looking to spend. No, no, no. required to spend way way way more than they currently do. But even all of that begs a very different and separate question, which is, is this GM capable of making an intelligent trade that involves hitting? There isn’t precedent for that. It does not exist. So, I don’t have anything upon which to say, “Hey, yeah, but he did it this one time.” I don’t have it. I don’t have it. I could be the biggest Ben Cherington supporter in the history of Ben Cherington supporters and I still wouldn’t be able to come up with this because it doesn’t exist. In fact, if you go back to some of these programs, the Daily Shots of Pirates around the time of the most recent trade deadline in July, you’ll hear that I wanted nothing to do with him trading Keller. Not because I didn’t think it was the right thing to do. I do believe that you have to do this in order to bring in hitting. I just didn’t want him doing it. I was going to be all in favor of saying that the new GM should do this. But hey, that’s when everybody at the top of this corporate structure exposed themselves all over again is not really caring all that much about winning versus losing. I appreciate the question. I appreciate everybody listening to Daily Shot of Pirates. We’ll be back with another one of these tomorrow. [Music]

Ben Cherington says he’ll have ‘more flexibility,’ but will he really?

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