Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview & Prediction | PFF

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview & Prediction | PFF

the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to Jacksonville to take on the Jags. Uh Jags coming off of a historic collapse. Uh one of the worst in franchise history, I think the worst in franchise history when it comes to fourth quarter comebacks and leads blown in that last quarter of the game. So, you know that they’re looking to get revenge. The Chargers looking to keep things rolling, right? Even with the struggles along the offensive line, they are still a team that um has has played well. Justin Herbert obviously has played incredibly well and their seven and three record and speaks to that with them winning three in a row here. So, you want to talk about the Chargers, you want to talk about the Jags? I’m going to go with the Jaguars defense and I I think we’re enough weeks into this that we have significant concern about this secondary and their inability to cover anyone over the last few weeks. This looks a lot more like last year’s unit than it did the first five weeks of the year. The first five weeks they led the n uh they led the NFL led the nation. I’m used to college. They led the they left the NFL. That’s the college lingo coming out for you. I know. I know. I had I had the 10 college. Technically, you are still correct. Yeah. I mean, it’s not like it’s incorrect. You know, we just we never use that. We always say leads the league, leads the NFL. You could still say leads the nation and you’re correct there. I mean I mean that that is true. So e either way you want to go about it. They’re leading something. They are leading everybody. We’ll just go with everybody. They were leading everybody the first five weeks in coverage grade and with 10 interceptions. the last five weeks 29th in coverage grade and only two interceptions and I find it I don’t know if this is the reason and obviously Travis Hunter getting hurt and any contributions he would make on defense would play into this but that’s also the cut off of you know when they beat Kansas City but then a couple days later they traded Tyson Campbell to Cleveland for Greg Newsome and Newsome has not played particularly well in Jacksonville and I believe Tyson Campbell has an 80 coverage grade right now for the Browns maybe getting to a better fit there and Jim Schwarz’s defense has helped him but this Jags team has not been able to cover over the last five weeks. Again, this looks a lot more like last year’s unit. Jordan Lewis got hurt, but Jerion Jones looks pretty good in the slot. That’s his natural position. It’s to me more on the outside with Greg Newsome and with Montaic Brown really struggling out there at corner. You wonder if maybe early returns on that trade. They’re regretting it a little bit. They were hoping to get Newsome to a new environment and have him play well. Hasn’t been the case so far. But this team’s got to get better in coverage because even with the Chargers offensive line issues, Justin Herbert’s still playing really well and he’s got a lot of weapons he can hurt you with. Yeah. No, it’s true. They they definitely have to play a lot better coverage than they have um over the last couple weeks. I think they’ve just got to run the ball on the offensive side of the ball. I I think there’s a ton of conversation about Trevor Lawrence, you know, like is he the guy? Can you rely on him in clutch situations? You know, can he can he lead the offense the way that he needs to? The answer is both yes and no. I think I think that’s that’s the truth of it. And and where we are currently with Trevor Lawrence, not that he can’t play better, but where we are currently with the Jags offense, you can’t have a game where it’s all on him. And when you look at how the Jags have run the ball this season, Dalton, it’s as simple as this. The four lowest team rushing grade games that they have this season, four losses. The five highest, five wins. when they run the ball well, when they run the ball efficiently, they win the game because they are really, really tough to stop, when they are balanced, and obviously the defensive side of the ball has to hold up their end of the bargain as well. But they have to run the ball, plain and simple, from an EPA per rush perspective, an overall PFF grade perspective. Obviously, those things are sort of baked into the performance that you have there. Even on the games where, okay, maybe Trevor ETN or Travis ETN doesn’t have, you know, a ton of yards. Is he efficient? Are they able to run the ball on third and two? and pick up those three yards on the ground, get a first down. Like, those are the things that I’m talking about. You don’t have to rush for 120 yards every single week. You don’t have to have a yards per carry average of like nine and a half. You just have to be really consistent and effective when you hand the ball off. The games that they are, they win. The games they aren’t, they lose. Because when you put too much on Trevor Lawrence’s plate right now, he has not been able to overcome a lack of a run game like that. He just is not at that point. You could say everything that you want about, hey, they don’t have Travis Hunter. They they don’t have Brian Thomas Jr. like all that. And I’m not I’m not saying that like those aren’t valid things to bring up. This is just the fact of the matter is when they don’t run the ball, they don’t win. They don’t succeed. Now, the Chargers, they’re 12th in run defense grade as a team this season, but they’re 18th in EPA per rush allowed. So, this is a game where Jacksonville could bounce back here and we could get a much more consistent and efficient running game, especially at home. I think the Jags really need this one. I think they’re going to get Liam Cohen’s best and I’m going to take the Jags to win 27 to 24 here. Tough game to pick because it is a long trip for uh the Chargers here. And I think the one issue I I think you look at Jacksonville’s offense and to me I think they have a lot of the same issues we talked about earlier with Carolina. They can run the football. The underneath passing game works, but Trevor Lawrence has had a hard time getting vertical. And his accuracy vertically downfield hasn’t been great. He’s only completed 45% of his passes uh targeted 10 or more air yards down the field. And this Charger defense is not going to make that any easier on you. So, it’s going to have to be a conservative game plan when it comes to the Jags. They’re going to have to run the football, Will, because you do not well you don’t you do not want to throw into the teeth of this Charger defense in this secondary that’s so good at preventing those explosives. And I think Justin Herbert really does. As long as he’s got enough pass protection in this game, which is going to be a question every single week, and of course this week against Josh Hines Allen and Trayvon Walker and those guys up front, long as he’s protected enough this week, I think he’s going to have opportunities to win downfield with all those receivers he has. I think Lad Macy really getting hot last week against Pittsburgh helps him out a lot. I’m gonna take the Chargers. Going to be a defensive battle, but I think Herbert makes enough plays again.

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema preview the matchup between The Los Angeles Chargers and The Jacksonville Jaguars.

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