Going 5-3 at any stretch of the season is difficult, the last half of the season has some tough matchups but 5 wins is definitely doable. I’ve been going over this the past 2 days. The remaining schedule is Min, Pit, Philly, pack x2, Cle, SF, and Det.

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  2. I feel like if we split the next two, and win the Cleveland game we just need to win 1 or 2 more. Definitely do able

  4. > I’ve been going over this the past 2 days

    I see even our subreddit has upped its standards to Ben Johnson level

  5. It’s really hard to say what’s going to happen. Because the reality of the NFL is that logical analysis doesn’t seem to ever win out. Take our Bears. 4 plays are the difference between being 6-3 and 2-7. The comebacks against the Giants, the Commanders, the Raiders, and the Bengals are not something that’s sustainable. Logic suggests that we won’t be able to sustain it and will probably only win 2 more games. But that’s the thing, this Bears team is defying logic. And I absolutely love it.

  7. IMO the 49ers is the most important game. Beat the 49ers then and the odds are pretty good we finish above them (or at least, winning the tie breaker with them), and I just don’t see any of the other teams currently behind us in the standings making the playoffs. Even if we lost to the Vikings I wouldn’t bet the Vikings to make the playoffs in the end.

    Lions/Packers games are obviously important for higher ambitions than getting the 7th seed but I don’t think they have to win those to get a wild card.

  8. That 49ers game will be the deciding factor for the Bears. I took a look at their schedule and here is how it looks, they are currently 6-4:

    Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, Titans, Colts, Bears, Seahawks

    I think that they will win their next 4. The best team they play is the Panthers in the next 4 weeks and they aren’t that good either, they’ll have a good game here and there but they’re too inconsistent.

    This will put the 49ers at 10-4 before they play the Colts, Bears, and Seahawks. I’m gonna say they lose to the Colts and Seahawks, meaning the game against us determines if they finish 10-7 or 11-6. If we beat them, I assume we will be around 10-7, so we’d get the spot over them. If we lose to them, they get that spot

  10. If we won 11 games and missed the playoffs I’d be absolutely shocked. This isn’t exactly groundbreaking analysis.

  11. Since the playoff change to 3 wildcard teams (not counting division winners),

    * 8 of 10 (80%) ten win teams have made it (4-4)
    * 6 of 17 (35%) nine win teams have made it (3-5)

  12. nah i think realistic goals 3-5 / 4-4. if we go 4-4 we’re also likely in a wildcard. The bears have improved for sure but expecting a 5-3 record in the remaining games especially with our defensive injuries is a bit much I think. Maybe they prove me wrong idk

  15. Reminder this is a simulation.

    Also reminder: the Falcons had over 99% chance to win that Super Bowl.

     >99% is NOT the same as a guarantee.

  18. There’s a good chance that the 49ers game will determine who gets the final playoff spot, provided we don’t completely collapse before then

  23. Win Vs Minnesota -1
    Sweep Packers -2
    Win vs Steelers-1
    Win vs Lions -1
    Win vs Cleveland -1
    Loss vs Broncos
    Loss vs Eagles

  28. I think you would have to beat Min, Pit, split with GB, CLE, and SF. That honestly is tough but I wouldn’t say insane or out of reach. Keep in mind, we should have beat GB twice last year

  29. Here’s the ones we’ll win: Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Packers, Browns, Packers, 49ers, & Lions ✊️

  30. It would honestly be hilarious if the Bears pulled off an actual playoff run on just winning in the craziest ways in the fourth quarter. With the way games have ended, it would be *chef’s kiss* if somehow a team loses to us in the playoffs by double doinking and the Bears winning a playoff game lol.

  31. It took two days to figure out that 11 wins will most likely result in a playoff berth?

  32. Honestly knowing all of this I’m gonna be more stressed for this Vikings game more than any so far

  33. The Niners game likely determines who the 7 seed will be

    Philly, Tampa, Detroit, Seattle, LA Rams, Packers. All of them feel like locks. The next ones left are us and the Niners.

  36. I’m sorry… but winning 11 games to give us a 99% chance for a playoff spot is not some profound insight. It’s obvious.

    Bear down all day, but come on guys… we don’t need a predictive model or OP to tell us this

  40. I mean, sure, but I still don’t really see that happening. 

    The Browns are the only truly *bad* team during the rest of the season.

    You take the wins where you can get them and all that, but we probably should have lost at least 3 of the games we won. We are not a dominant 6-3.

  42. All the meatballs making these posts better not be the same ones melting down if things go south. 

  43. The key to the playoffs is beating the Vikings on Sunday and at least splitting with the Packers. You don’t want Minny or the Pack to hold the head to head tiebreaker. I’m fairly confident they will win at least one and probably two out of the Browns, Steelers and 49ers (injuries are killing them). If they can steal a win at Philly they’d actually sweep the NFC East which I don’t even remember the last time they’ve done.

    They win Sunday, I see them at 9-10 wins which is usually enough to make the playoffs. If they lose it’s 8-9 and the outside looking in.

  45. Can we just pause for a moment and relish in the fact that we get to talk playoff scenarios in mid-November?

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