Some interesting stats regarding Matthews’s deployment under Berube
November 13, 2025
From @Nylanderthews
33 comments
Turning Auston into a shutdown 3rd line center is great coaching
He is not a great defender. Leafs were bailed out by Stolarz’s 925+ save pct last year. It is basically the same games being played this year except the goalies are not saving the team. BRAAAAAAAAADDDDD sucks.
And Auston should not kill penalties, get him out there right after a solid kill to feed on 3rd and 4th liners and see his numbers rocket again.
do ya think we have come far enough for some folks within the fanbase to understand you dont get both top level defense and top level production at the same time?
like most folks can understand that you dont really get to have it both ways but some just have not gotten that message yet
1- it has been clear to anyone watching that Auston has played a much more defensive role under Berube. Here are some basic stats
2- the Panthers have ridiculous depth so there’s no need to have Barkov super high. I’m curious about guys like Eichel and Cirelli
3- I’d be curious about other guys who play 2C or with great linemates (Draisaitl, etc)
I have no actual evidence other than my eyes and memory but I have been more and more on the train of thought that Berube has lost the room.
The way they’ve been playing is very similar to how the Leafs played under Babcock before they fired him. Very (seemingly deliberate) uninspired play and something systemic is incredibly evident. I could be wrong but the eye test and the way he uses Matthews gives some clues.
You don’t always control who the other team has or who they send out against you. A 70-goal scorer is obviously going to draw a ton of attention, especially with roster construction like ours. Matthews also kills more penalties under Berube (which I admit I don’t like how often he’s doing it and who it’s against) which also drives up the time against elite competition.
You aren’t going to beat other teams’ elite players with mediocre ones. Is 48% a little high? Yes, but who else were we going to send out against top players? We had no depth. Matthews is advertised and paid as an elite player who can handle the other teams’ best at either end of the rink. The reality is our roster and salary cap are constructed for him to do that so we probably sink if he doesn’t.
So maybe we need to be more advantageous to lower that number a bit and catch teams sleeping or caught where they can’t change. But this trend isn’t going entirely away. Matthews will always be in the Barkov range as opposed to the MacKinnon range because of his skill set and our roster.
Edit: also, what metrics is this analysis using to measure “elite” competition? Seems a little subjective so while the directionality might be right, the magnitude probably isn’t.
I think it’s fine. Matthews needs this type of deployment to play against tough matchups in the playoffs. I don’t care about regular season stats at this point.
Well boys I can tell which way the winds are blowing, looks like we got ourselves a new scapegoat.
Who else should Berube have sent out against top opposition last season? Matthews and Marner were our best defensive forwards and had to take the brunt of it. Other lines would get their lunch fed to them playing against elite opposition.
No depth. Nobody else capable of shutting down elite scorers, so it fell to the best guys we had. It’d be nice if we did have prime ROR to cover that role as alluded to in the tweet. But we don’t. We have Max Domi.
I was saying this a few weeks ago, he’s playing against other teams best in a defensive role. By the time he gets on offense he’s exhausted.
I wonder what that looks like for Nylander given his scoring has gone through the roof.
He’s the best 200 ft star in hockey. That’s a wild stat
As soon as they have no choice to get away from Berube style (when they are getting crushed) , they instantly look faster. Berube is choking them to death.
Are these stats at 5vs5 or all situations? Matthews plays the PK so that likely inflates his stats a bit.
The year he scored 69 he was at 40%. So this stat means nothing?
Yeah i also like the point that hes out on every penalty kill and so on. Your playing the guy to death
Ok so he got 9+goals and a new career high with 10% increase against “elite opponents”…so the stat is bogus
40% deployment and he scored 69. So what are you trying to imply her exactly?
Can we see Marner’s numbers last year for comparison? Cause he didn’t seem to struggle in the reg season, despite also being on both sides.
There might be a significant correlation here and this might be one of the reasons why… but I’m tired of blaming everyone around for supposed superstar not performing.
other people have mentioned already, who else would you deploy against McDavid, MacKinnon, Kaprizov, etc?
Willy and JT’s offensive production has exploded due to not having these responsibilities, the biggest issue is our underperforming PP for 34 to make it back up
Also take him off the PK for fucks sake, blocked shots is a terrible stat for a central piece of the franchise whose health is already a point of concern
Causality could go the other way – when Matthews wasn’t able to score, they deployed him more defensively.
With his wrist injury or whatever I don’t see him as lethal as he used to be and his two way play is a way to compensate. I just don’t think he will ever be as a deadly as he was.
My problem here is that the only real difference between Auston Matthews the last 13 months and Auston before that is his shooting percentage – something that relies on a body part he went to see a specialist in Germany for. There’s been more decline in expected goal/shot attempt numbers this season, but it’s early enough into the season the sample is ultra noisy, he’s lost one of the five best wingers in the NHL, and the Leafs in general have had terrible underlying numbers since the last trade deadline, probably in part because they now play an AHL-level talent 20 minutes a night with Morgan Rielly.
Why have the best goalscorer on the planet when you can have a good two way centre? Goals aren’t important, you can score 30 less than normal to prevent 5 more.
He shouldn’t be playing on the PK and he should be taking as many FO as other star players. His ice time is also too high. Time to re-evaluate how they use him. They also need to start working on how to keep him healthy and productive
If I recall the Leafs did the best in the playoffs under Berube
I don’t know if the room isn’t listening, or if they need a new coach. I also don’t know how to fix them. I’m as frustrated as everybody else here, but I will say that I remember a few short years ago when they used to be fun to watch. They were probably the most skilled team in the league and we were debating if Matthews was better than McDavid.
Those days seem like so long ago. You wonder if they’ve misplayed the generational talent that landed in their laps. Marner is gone, Matthews isn’t who he once was, and Tavares is older.
Today, it’s depressing to turn the game on.
They’ve been trying to play the “right way” for ten fucking years. Let your players be what they are. Everyone always talked about how great Marner was defensively and how he was our best pker. Why though?? I wonder if things could have turned out differently if he wasn’t out there killing every penalty. Now that he’s gone is that what they want Matthews to be now? A shut down specialist?
I hate this team. I used to watch every game but the last few years I have to admit I’m losing the passion. I just don’t care anymore. The organization as a whole just seems to try so hard to fail. Their history of blunder after blunder after blunder is so ridiculous that I almost feel like I’m living in a simulation sometimes.
This obviously doesn’t include this seasons stats, so this is just eye test for me, but I don’t understand Berube’s unwillingness to play Nic Roy in this shutdown role that he’s using Matthews in. Getting someone like Roy is supposed to allow them to do that, and Roy is SUCH a Berube player, he’s huge, he’s a decent skater, he’s smart on the puck. He played close to or over 16 minutes a night in Vegas and played a hugely defensive role there, he’s at 14:27 for us and that’s including 75% dZS according to hockey reference. So he is using him defensively, but not in a way that helps him at all.
Sounds like excuses to me.
Bérubé is dogshit. Same oldschool Babcock style without Babcock. Keefe and the Devils are in 1st
Stop babying the superstars. I want a dog who says “put me up against anybody and I’ll roll over them”
You think Sid says “no wait coach, put me in only when I get some soft matchups, I need a reel for social media”
You’re gonna have to face a Datsyuk/Zetterberg combo and come out on top.
Yes finding good matchups is key but this level of deep diving is something I bet none of Berube nor Matthews give a shit about.
33 comments
Turning Auston into a shutdown 3rd line center is great coaching
He is not a great defender. Leafs were bailed out by Stolarz’s 925+ save pct last year. It is basically the same games being played this year except the goalies are not saving the team. BRAAAAAAAAADDDDD sucks.
And Auston should not kill penalties, get him out there right after a solid kill to feed on 3rd and 4th liners and see his numbers rocket again.
do ya think we have come far enough for some folks within the fanbase to understand you dont get both top level defense and top level production at the same time?
like most folks can understand that you dont really get to have it both ways but some just have not gotten that message yet
1- it has been clear to anyone watching that Auston has played a much more defensive role under Berube. Here are some basic stats
2- the Panthers have ridiculous depth so there’s no need to have Barkov super high. I’m curious about guys like Eichel and Cirelli
3- I’d be curious about other guys who play 2C or with great linemates (Draisaitl, etc)
I have no actual evidence other than my eyes and memory but I have been more and more on the train of thought that Berube has lost the room.
The way they’ve been playing is very similar to how the Leafs played under Babcock before they fired him. Very (seemingly deliberate) uninspired play and something systemic is incredibly evident. I could be wrong but the eye test and the way he uses Matthews gives some clues.
You don’t always control who the other team has or who they send out against you. A 70-goal scorer is obviously going to draw a ton of attention, especially with roster construction like ours. Matthews also kills more penalties under Berube (which I admit I don’t like how often he’s doing it and who it’s against) which also drives up the time against elite competition.
You aren’t going to beat other teams’ elite players with mediocre ones. Is 48% a little high? Yes, but who else were we going to send out against top players? We had no depth. Matthews is advertised and paid as an elite player who can handle the other teams’ best at either end of the rink. The reality is our roster and salary cap are constructed for him to do that so we probably sink if he doesn’t.
So maybe we need to be more advantageous to lower that number a bit and catch teams sleeping or caught where they can’t change. But this trend isn’t going entirely away. Matthews will always be in the Barkov range as opposed to the MacKinnon range because of his skill set and our roster.
Edit: also, what metrics is this analysis using to measure “elite” competition? Seems a little subjective so while the directionality might be right, the magnitude probably isn’t.
I think it’s fine. Matthews needs this type of deployment to play against tough matchups in the playoffs. I don’t care about regular season stats at this point.
Well boys I can tell which way the winds are blowing, looks like we got ourselves a new scapegoat.
Who else should Berube have sent out against top opposition last season? Matthews and Marner were our best defensive forwards and had to take the brunt of it. Other lines would get their lunch fed to them playing against elite opposition.
No depth. Nobody else capable of shutting down elite scorers, so it fell to the best guys we had. It’d be nice if we did have prime ROR to cover that role as alluded to in the tweet. But we don’t. We have Max Domi.
I was saying this a few weeks ago, he’s playing against other teams best in a defensive role. By the time he gets on offense he’s exhausted.
I wonder what that looks like for Nylander given his scoring has gone through the roof.
He’s the best 200 ft star in hockey. That’s a wild stat
As soon as they have no choice to get away from Berube style (when they are getting crushed) , they instantly look faster. Berube is choking them to death.
OMG, Finally someone is pointing this out https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/s/PObSjhsIqf
Are these stats at 5vs5 or all situations? Matthews plays the PK so that likely inflates his stats a bit.
The year he scored 69 he was at 40%. So this stat means nothing?
Yeah i also like the point that hes out on every penalty kill and so on. Your playing the guy to death
Ok so he got 9+goals and a new career high with 10% increase against “elite opponents”…so the stat is bogus
40% deployment and he scored 69. So what are you trying to imply her exactly?
Can we see Marner’s numbers last year for comparison? Cause he didn’t seem to struggle in the reg season, despite also being on both sides.
There might be a significant correlation here and this might be one of the reasons why… but I’m tired of blaming everyone around for supposed superstar not performing.
other people have mentioned already, who else would you deploy against McDavid, MacKinnon, Kaprizov, etc?
Willy and JT’s offensive production has exploded due to not having these responsibilities, the biggest issue is our underperforming PP for 34 to make it back up
Also take him off the PK for fucks sake, blocked shots is a terrible stat for a central piece of the franchise whose health is already a point of concern
Causality could go the other way – when Matthews wasn’t able to score, they deployed him more defensively.
With his wrist injury or whatever I don’t see him as lethal as he used to be and his two way play is a way to compensate. I just don’t think he will ever be as a deadly as he was.
My problem here is that the only real difference between Auston Matthews the last 13 months and Auston before that is his shooting percentage – something that relies on a body part he went to see a specialist in Germany for. There’s been more decline in expected goal/shot attempt numbers this season, but it’s early enough into the season the sample is ultra noisy, he’s lost one of the five best wingers in the NHL, and the Leafs in general have had terrible underlying numbers since the last trade deadline, probably in part because they now play an AHL-level talent 20 minutes a night with Morgan Rielly.
Why have the best goalscorer on the planet when you can have a good two way centre? Goals aren’t important, you can score 30 less than normal to prevent 5 more.
He shouldn’t be playing on the PK and he should be taking as many FO as other star players. His ice time is also too high. Time to re-evaluate how they use him. They also need to start working on how to keep him healthy and productive
If I recall the Leafs did the best in the playoffs under Berube
I don’t know if the room isn’t listening, or if they need a new coach. I also don’t know how to fix them. I’m as frustrated as everybody else here, but I will say that I remember a few short years ago when they used to be fun to watch. They were probably the most skilled team in the league and we were debating if Matthews was better than McDavid.
Those days seem like so long ago. You wonder if they’ve misplayed the generational talent that landed in their laps. Marner is gone, Matthews isn’t who he once was, and Tavares is older.
Today, it’s depressing to turn the game on.
They’ve been trying to play the “right way” for ten fucking years. Let your players be what they are. Everyone always talked about how great Marner was defensively and how he was our best pker. Why though?? I wonder if things could have turned out differently if he wasn’t out there killing every penalty. Now that he’s gone is that what they want Matthews to be now? A shut down specialist?
I hate this team. I used to watch every game but the last few years I have to admit I’m losing the passion. I just don’t care anymore. The organization as a whole just seems to try so hard to fail. Their history of blunder after blunder after blunder is so ridiculous that I almost feel like I’m living in a simulation sometimes.
This obviously doesn’t include this seasons stats, so this is just eye test for me, but I don’t understand Berube’s unwillingness to play Nic Roy in this shutdown role that he’s using Matthews in. Getting someone like Roy is supposed to allow them to do that, and Roy is SUCH a Berube player, he’s huge, he’s a decent skater, he’s smart on the puck. He played close to or over 16 minutes a night in Vegas and played a hugely defensive role there, he’s at 14:27 for us and that’s including 75% dZS according to hockey reference. So he is using him defensively, but not in a way that helps him at all.
Sounds like excuses to me.
Bérubé is dogshit. Same oldschool Babcock style without Babcock. Keefe and the Devils are in 1st
Stop babying the superstars. I want a dog who says “put me up against anybody and I’ll roll over them”
You think Sid says “no wait coach, put me in only when I get some soft matchups, I need a reel for social media”
You’re gonna have to face a Datsyuk/Zetterberg combo and come out on top.
Yes finding good matchups is key but this level of deep diving is something I bet none of Berube nor Matthews give a shit about.
What app are you reading that off of?