Why Early Offseason Signings Will Help #Mariners in ’26 | #SeattleSports

Why Early Offseason Signings Will Help #Mariners in ’26 | #SeattleSports

days. I wanted to start by asking about Josh Naylor. Um, he’s been a very obvious topic of conversation in the offseason, but there was that sound uh the other day on SiriusXM of Justin Hollander saying, “Hey, I’m make no bones about it. Josh Naylor is our top priority.” Uh, how confident are you that they have a good chance to resign him or might uh and how important would that signing be? I think they certainly have a chance uh to keep him. There’s money there. Josh Naylor not phased by by hitting in Seattle. Um, but there are 29 other teams in Major League Baseball. So, uh, you know, there’s a chance, but, you know, it’s it’s not like he’s from here. It’s not like there’s any allegiance to to this particular area of the country or even this team, even though, you know, he he had a chance to go pretty darn far in in October. And, you know, players bond, you know, that that’s a thing. But once free agency comes, you know, just about every player out there, it’s it’s first and foremost about dollars. And one of the things that that isn’t really being talked about enough right now is the effect on the CBA situation with this year’s free agent class. I don’t really expect as many big contracts uh to be handed out as are being projected. that I think there are going to be teams that are just going to be they’re just going to sit back and wait and think that, you know, the next CBA is going to be better for them and that’s going to help keep numbers down. uh you know, some of these guys are going to get big money, but I think if if it’s down a little bit, if it’s if it’s your typical uh free agent crop in terms of spending over the last 3 to 5 years and and isn’t an outlier, that might play into Seattle’s hands here a little bit and and help them keep a Josh Naylor or extend the player that’s already on their roster. Uh it with the with first base and DH being a little bit interchangeable. Uh there there are a lot of teams out there, like I said, there’s 29 other teams out there. The vast majority of them have a spot for Josh Naylor because he’s not a 3540 million player. Just about every team out there can go out there and have a chance to to sign him and offer him the kind of money that he’s probably looking for and he’ll probably command. I think it’s huge for Seattle to get something done early in in in free agency if they’re going to to make a move in free agency to get it done early because hitters are still really not going to want to come sign in Seattle. Nothing has changed about that. Their run into the postseason doesn’t change how difficult it is to hit there. Players are not going to want to come here and have their offense oppressed. Uh so that’s certainly part of this conversation and and so there’s a lot of backup plans that if you’re thinking about first base for the Seattle Mariners, Josh Naylor is not a done deal. And until it is, you got to think about other players. You got to think even about a petal. You got to think about uh O’Harn. Uh you know, and even the Japanese players that are that are coming over. One of them is being posted today, I believe. Um until it’s done, it’s it’s not done. And it might be just as unlikely as it feels likely considering the run they went on and how big Josh Naylor was for that. You might have uh well you kind of touched on my question but didn’t provide any specifics. Do you think there’s a team that other than the Mariners that is zeroed in on Josh Naylor saying look we need a first baseman um he would fit here. Who who’s uh who’s the main contender I guess I should say when it comes to uh trying to sway Josh away from Seattle. Yeah. you know, there there’s probably a lot of them. You know, if I’m the Nationals, I’m in. You know, I’m trying to I’m trying to take a step forward next year. I’m in on a guy who who has a high floor, isn’t going to cost me, you know, superstar money, and I probably don’t need to give five, six plus years to. Um, that’s the kind of that’s the kind of player I want. The Mets who need to go spend on a bunch of pitching, may want to spend a little bit less at first base, but still get pretty good production. Maybe they let Pete Alonso walk and zero in on on a guy like Josh Naylor. Um there are a lot of teams out there and I think the um the biggest contender, you know, to Seattle, and I’m not even sure if Seattle’s number one on the list, but the biggest contender is the team that’s going to be willing to spend the most money on him. And there’s a lot of projections out there right now. I’ve seen five years and and $130 million. I’ve seen four years and 100. I’ve seen three and and 60. I I just don’t know what kind of a market we’re going to see because of the the situation with the collective bargaining agreement. If it’s the big market, Seattle’s going to have to go four years, maybe even uh maybe even a fifth to get him, which is a little steep for me, but I think this is one of those cases where if you overspend just a little bit to keep Josh Naylor, it goes a long way. I I think he’s extremely important to uh to to the Mariners situation because it’s it’s unlikely they’re going to go out and get Pete Alonzo and it’s unlikely they’re going to go out and get anyone else uh to play any position on a daily basis really really early in the process unless it’s Josh Naylor. Yeah. Uh Jason, I think, and I’m sure you know this, that what a lot of Mariners fans were worried about or most heartbroken about when they lost game seven wasn’t just the heartbreak and shock of the suddenenness of that ending, but also the fear that wow, what if they never get back here again? What if so many things had to go right? What if there was so much luck um or a historic season from Cal involved? Um, so I wanted to ask you, I guess, how close are they really based on like talent and what they have and what are some important pieces to add? Yeah, I I think once the season ended and and Naylor and Aohinio Suarez uh hit free agency, uh, all of a sudden you’re starting with you’re starting back where you were in July, right? Uh, and Jorge Palanco as well. So, you’re kind of back, you know, in that spot. And if you think about Randy Rosena, he’s only got a year left on his deal. So now you’re thinking, “Wow, okay, this core just shrunk by almost half because of of free agency.” So that’s why getting someone back pretty early in the process really helps plan the rest of the the winter and give them a shot to to execute. I think trades are going to be a big part of this off season. Um, but obviously you look at at third base, obvious first base is is obviously near the top of that list. uh whether it’s Naylor or someone else. Third base, they have to figure out something at third base, you know, and and I’m not sure if Suarez makes a whole lot of sense to bring back. Uh I I certainly wouldn’t be comfortable giving him, you know, three years or anything of that nature, but they need to find something this winter and not head into next year with multiple spots in that batting order where they’re starting an unproven player. And that’s something they’ve done quite a bit the last three, four, five years. Well, the last, you know, 20 years really. And you know, if if you’re telling me you have an opportunity to acquire a player and start a Cole Young at second base and and your new player at third base or you bring back Soros for you and you start him at third base, I think you’re okay doing that. But what do you do at DH without Palanco, you know, around is that can zone and you’re running with Robless in right field. Not feeling as confident about that situation as as it looked this year. But if you go out and you add, you know, uh, your DH or you add your second basement or you add your third baseman and you don’t add to those other two spots to fill the holes created by free agency, including bringing those players back that were here a year ago, you know, now you’re in a hole and now you’re you’re down in that uh that fringy range again where, you know, the club looks like an 85 win team and they have an opportunity to just put that sort of roster building and position and status completely behind them. And it, you know, that’s why I keep talking about getting something done early because it just gives you so many more opportunities to go out and say, “Okay, we have our first basement or we have our third basement or we know exactly who the second basement is going to be. We got a proven guy to do that, whatever that might be to focus on like two other spots in that lineup. Yes, they need some relief help. They need to go out and get probably a really good middle guy and another backend, you know, arm to help out Munoz and Spire and Brash back there. But if they don’t fix this lineup again, they’re again they’re right back where they’ve been the last couple of years where Julio and Cal and Rosa’s, you know, due back and and you know, Crawford’s, you know, fairly steady and but they just need more impact and and when those guys hit free agency, those three players, they just look like a pretty bad offensive club right now. It looked like a like a five uh hitter deep lineup when you know they spent the the majority of the the second half of 2025 look finally looking like a complete lineup and we saw the difference that makes having essentially nine hitters in the lineup that can do some damage. Who’s a young guy in the miners right now that um you’re excited to see and you feel like is going to be a contributor next year? Maybe it’s a guy that we’ve already seen. Yeah, I I think Kate Anderson needs like five minutes in the minors, you know. So So that’s a that’s a pretty easy one. I mean, legitimately, if the scheduling and workload weren’t really as big of a thing and you know, from college to pro ball as it is, um Kate Anderson could have helped the Mariners in October. Like there’s no zero question about it. Um so I’m not sure how much time, you know, Seattle’s going to, you know, keep him down in the minors. A little more fun one for me is Colt Emerson. Had such a good year last year. Started off a little bit slow. Um just a young kid, 20 years old, can play shortstop, could play second for you if you needed him to, and could play third for you if you needed him to. Uh he moved really quickly and obviously ended the year in Tacoma and did some things there. I think he starts the year in the minors again, but you know, his performance and how he handles, you know, certain things, it, you know, is going to dictate how quickly he gets to the big leagues. And I wouldn’t rule out something in in June or so, you know, getting him to the big leagues. But if you’re the Mariners, you really can’t go into this season leaning on uh, you know, a Colt Emerson to to to start the season for you, you know, at at at third base or shortstop or second base, whatever it is. You have to let him force the issue. He’s too young. It’s too big of a risk. And you’re a team that should head into the the regular season as one of the five or six World Series favorites. If that doesn’t happen, something went wrong this off season. Is there leaning into that conversation? I’ve been wondering whether they do that. Like, do they just roll with Ben Williamson at third and roll with Young at second and roll with a couple really young guys as regular starters? Are you anticipating they they will do that or or are you more confident that they add veteran help and then kind of leave a runway for those guys? Yeah, I don’t think they’re going to do that. I think it’s acceptable and and they’re probably thinking something along these lines too. If we do that at one spot, let’s say they bring back Josh Naylor or something, you know, close to that and then maybe they’re deciding, okay, do we feel a little bit better about Ben Williamson at third or do we feel a little bit better about Cole Young at third at second, not both. Go out and get a proven guy for that other spot. Then go find somebody who can play, you know, you know, DH for you. You know, maybe he’s an outfielder and a DH and you run with two or three DH’s. did a really good job this year um handling Jorge Palano and him getting DH time and Cal getting DH time and mixing in Garver and and Canzone and especially earlier in the year and kind of mixing that up and then Robless went down and and you know some things had to change but I think they did a really good job with that and I think that that’s the kind of a situation they want at DH. So, it kind of really comes down to can we find, you know, two veteran guys to fill those three spots and then we could go with a with a younger player uh at that other spot and be okay because you can address things during the season. I just think if you start the year and your your lineup is missing, you know, two key guys and you’re going with unproven players, you’re you’re just asking to struggle offensively. You’re asking for inconsistency. you’re asking to to lose a lot of games, you know, four to two, three to two, 3-1. And I think Mariners fans here have seen that enough. And I think the front office has seen that enough. I don’t want to go back there. So, I think their opportunity with what’s available, you know, in with the payroll, which isn’t necessarily going to be about free agency as much, but it gives them so much more flexibility to make trades to go get that guy who maybe is already making some money. Maybe he’s already making $15 million and they swipe a couple of minor leaguers for him and keep him in the lineup for a year or two. Um, there’s a lot of names out there that make tons of sense that fans aren’t necessarily going to be excited about. not a name that’s come up before in the past in Alec Bowman in Philadelphia. Philadelphia is probably going to move on there. They tried to last year and he’s a very steady player and if you added him to the lineup and resign Josh Naylor, you still have a lot of money left over and a lot of prospects left over to go out and add another impact player or two uh to the roster, including another hitter, and and still have money left to go do other things. And so you you you’d even be able to play in that kind of a scenario at the top of the reliever market in free agency if that’s what you wanted to do. Um you know, we don’t really know exactly where the payroll is going to be, but we have a pretty decent idea because they told us and there’s room there’s room to make moves and make deals without this is the point I keep making. Yeah. Don’t have to go out and create space this this winter. Don’t have to go out and trade Luis Castillo’s $24 million. don’t have to go out and and move Randy Rosarena’s projected ARB salary around 171 18. They don’t have to go do any of that. They could just keep those guys as is and then go use the payroll they have available and still end up as good or better a team than they ended 2025. And that has to be the goal if you’re that front office right now. How different will and should this bullpen look next year? A little bit. I think generally there’s turnover in bullpens um pretty much every year. I think the guys at the back end, um, you know, we always talk about how relief pitching is volatile, but with the Matt Brashes and the Andres Munoz, uh, even Gabe Spire from a performance standpoint, you know, those guys are fairly predictable from year to year. Uh, everybody else pretty unpredictable. I’m not sure if Bizardo belongs in that conversation yet. So, we’ll throw him in the other bucket. Yeah, I think they need to go out and add a guy that’s that’s Matt Brashlike um, in terms of performance and reliability. um whether that’s just a one-year guy or they go get a younger guy that can handle that spot for two, three, four years and then then go out and get some more middle guys that are uh uh reliable. I think they were really starting to get out of Trent Thornton what they expected to get out of him right before he got hurt, but I don’t think you can enter the offseason thinking, “All right, well, Thornton’s just going to be Thornton because again, he’s he’s among that that volatile bunch where you just don’t really know what you’re going to get from year to year.” I think there are two arms missing in that bullpen and I think they’re they’re both external. I think I think they’re acquisitions. They’re free agent signings or uh or trade acquisitions. So I I look for a lot of deals um being talked about this winter where Seattle adds a bat and a reliever or um you know they go and get that first basement or that reliever or that third baseman and get a reliever. Um I don’t we haven’t seen this team really spend money on that bullpen. I’m really curious in this position because they haven’t been in this position before where winning the World Series is literally right there in front of them. Will they actually spend uh in free agency on a reliever because there’s some pretty good ones out there. Ryan Helley, formerly the the Cardinals. Uh that’s been a guy I’ve had my eye on for a couple years. He was traded at the deadline. He’s a free agent, but it’s 10 plus million dollars to go get him. Are they going to be interested in doing something like that? I’m really curious to see how they handle that. But they’re a couple of arms away uh in that bolt. I think just about everybody else is going to be a part of it that was this year. Uh, you know, depending on, you know, whether they’re healthy or not. I think the wild card here is can can Santos be healthy and and bring them good middle relief at at the very least. They had a really good year with Chicago before they traded for him and he hasn’t given him anything in two years.

Baseball insider Jason Churchill joins hosts Michael Bumpus and Stacy Rost (Bump & Stacy) to discuss where the focus should be for the Mariners this offseason and why there’s one MAJOR piece of the puzzle that is being largely overlooked.

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0:00 – Josh Naylor future?
1:00 – CBA contract holdups
3:10 – Josh Naylor contract contenders
5:00 – Biggest needs – make a move early
8:40 – Minor leaguer ready for big leagues?
10:15 – Anticipating veteran help?
13:10 – M’s bullpen outlook

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Listen to The Bump & Stacy Show weekdays from 10 a.m. – 2 p.m. on Seattle Sports 710 AM or on-demand wherever you listen to podcasts.
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