What the numbers tell us about the Buffalo Sabres so far this season

What the numbers tell us about the Buffalo Sabres so far this season

We are through 15 games of the regular season. How do the numbers look so far for the Sabres? And what does that story tell us? Coming up here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. [Music] Your Locked On Sabres, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What is up everybody and welcome in to this Tuesday edition of the Locked On Sabers podcast. Thanks for making us your first listen every day. Part of the Locked On podcast network, now the number one sports podcast network. You can also watch the show on YouTube. Like and subscribe us there. You can get it wherever you might listen. And if you want to become a part of our lockdown sabers text club, you want to get practice updates, line combinations, injury stuff, we talked with Lindy Ruff this morning a little bit on that in our text club, you can head over to joinsubttex.com/lockdownsabers to sign up if you are interested. Sneaky Joe DBassi here on a Tuesday. Today’s episode is presented by FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app now by visiting fanduel.com. win $300 in bonus bets if your first $ five bet wins. We got an off day today. Game against Utah tomorrow on the road. Skeleton squad lineup. Hopefully the Sabres are able to pull out a point or two as they are not out of it yet in the race. Today on the show, we’ll get into a lot of the numbers. Was really diving in on their team totals. Five on five, power play, penalty kill, what some of their individuals are on pace for. I know it’s early, 15 games and there are only so many guys that have even played a full season so far this year. That’s maybe the most telling stat of today is that in a lineup that features on a nightly basis 20 players between goalender, defense, and forward, the there are only eight players that have played in every game so far this year. It’s not 50 games where only eight guys have played. It is 15. So, a lot of injuries as we know. What we can learn about the numbers so far. Some of them are good. Some of them are not so good. Some of them are in the middle. We’ll get to that coming up on today’s episode of the Locked On Savers podcast. Before we do that, very quick update. Got a little bit more detail-wise from Lindy Ruff when he was on with me and Jeremy White on WGR this morning. If you missed that, you could find that. Um, anywhere you get your podcast, Odyssey F, for that as well. YouTube, too. Talking to Lindy, he gave us some detail about Jason Zucker and what he’s currently going through, which is pretty incredible that Zucker, they’re doing all these tests over the last couple of weeks. And he kind of made it sound like they don’t fully know what’s wrong with Zucker, which is scary, but it’s a viral illness of some sort. And Zucker has not had solid food in nine days. That’s insane. No solid food in nine days. And that obviously because of that he has lost a considerable amount of weight. So what that means, I mean, one is you hope for Jason Zucker that he, you know, gets through this healthy and there’s no lingering effects, whatever it might be. Um, and that he’s able to kick it as soon as he possibly can because I’m sure his day-to-day life right now has got to suck. I mean, I probably can’t leave bed at all. He can’t eat. I I don’t know. This sounds like a nightmare. What Lindy did say on the hockey side is whenever Zucker is able to kick this and you know get back to eating honestly that it’s going to take some time for him to build his strength back up that let’s say in a week and that’s just a total speculation. It’s just a an example. Let’s say in a week he were to kick this thing. Then how long does it take from there to put the weight back on, you know, you know, by eating and strength conditioning? He He It’s almost kind of like he’s got to go through a whole another training camp again. Um, and even maybe a tougher one because of where his starting point is. He might be 20, 30 pounds lower than than he already was. I don’t know. So, it’s going to be a while. And he’s got to get back skating and then he’s got to practice a few times. Like I feel like Zucker is going to be out for a while given the details of what Lindy shared with today and that’s obviously a big loss because he’s a good player for them. Yuri Kik meanwhile the further detail we got from Lindy about him today is that with this blood clot issue they were actually evaluating him for another injury when they found it. So it’s actually he’s probably lucky that they caught it as early as they did. Um so they’ll deal with it now. he’ll go on medication and he’ll get through that at some point. And Lindy throughout the one to three month timeline. And he did also say that while the timeline can really be fluid, you know, with this blood clot stuff, it’s it’s tough to predict. Lindy did say he does expect him back this year. This should not be something it should not be so severe catching it at this stage that what you see in the league sometimes. I mentioned the Chris Bosch situation from the NBA on yesterday’s show that made him retire. It doesn’t sound like it’s that serious with Koulique and maybe that’s because they found it and luckily that they did. So that’s where we’re at practice today. Matias Samson is back on the ice. No Zack Benson. He’s really the only name to be watching here. Um otherwise all the lines were the same and everything was pretty much the same as the Sabres practicing in Utah in sight of tomorrow night’s game. To the numbers. Let’s go through what the numbers tell us so far through 15 games of the regular season. and the Sabres with 14 points in that which obviously is about a 40 about an 80 point pace on the year which is not playoff caliber but four points back of a playoff spot is where they currently sit. We’ll look at the five on five numbers first then look through some of the special teams and then look through some of what the individual players are on pace for and try to kind of put together the puzzle of what this team has been and what you can trust them to be going forward. Let’s start with five on five. And a lot of these are going to be some of those advanced numbers that I think can give you a better story. Shot attempts so far on the season for the Sabres. They are 57.7 per 60 minutes of hockey. All these are going to be per 60 of hockey because some teams have played, you know, 15 games, some teams played 14 games, some teams have played 16 games, so on and so forth. 57 shots per game, shot attempts per game at five on five. 17th best in the National Hockey League. Shot attempts given up. Little surprising. When I saw this, I thought, okay, and this is where, again, further context will come in. Sabres feel like they’ve been better defensively this year, more responsible. And then you pull up the numbers and go, oh, wait a minute. They are fourth from the bottom in shot attempts allowed, 29th, giving up 62 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That’s not solid. But the next stat I’m going to give you again little bit of a sto telling a story here. They are ninth in the league in gaining in getting shots. So they are getting more of their shots through. Again we look at shots against seventh from the bottom. Not a whole lot better but you go okay little bit better preventing those shots from getting through blocking shots etc. Expected goals on the season. The Sabres are giving up 2.63 per 60 minutes at five on five. So what does that mean? That is 21st in the National Hockey League. So while they are giving up a lot of these shot attempts and shots in general, there numbers tell that they should they’re a little bit better than that. That is they’re keeping shots to the outside. So far this year, what do the numbers show us is the Sabres are keeping shots to the outside. That while teams are getting some time in their zone and putting some pucks around the net, that those high danger areas right in front of whoever the goalender is, low faceoff circle, one-timers, Sabres are doing a pretty good job of preventing that. So those I think are good things. 21st is not great for expected goals against. 26th in shots against is not great either. And obviously 29th in shot attempts against is not great. But I think when you add it all up together, it’s not as bad as it could be given some of their injuries. And you would much rather have it this way than oh they don’t give up a lot of shots but man they’re all right in front of the goalender and the goalie’s job is a really really hard one. I think they are making it a little bit easier on Alex Lion, Ukapeka Lucin, and in his one game, Colton Ellis. So far this year, the system I think to some extent defensively is working. And while the personnel has been a little bit in and out so far this year, I think the system they’re being tougher to play against, the forwards kind of being folded into all of that. It does appear to me that it is working to some extent. It’s not great right now, but if you were healthy, maybe you would hope that it would be offensively. This one’s a little bit tougher, but it shows they’re better offensively than they might be defensively, which is stunning. Second year in a row where I could not believe that. Um, and last year this was the case. And so far this year, they ranked 17th in the league in shot attempts at five on five. They’re ninth in the league in shots. 27.9 shots per 60 minutes at five on five so far this year. in the top 10. They are 15th in goals scored per 60 minutes. 2.47 expected goals. They’re 12th, 2.65. Decent. It’s a pretty good offensive team, especially that’s the position where they’ve had a lot of injuries so far this year. So, better maybe at producing than they are at limiting so far this season, but a little bit of improvement on that back end. So, when I’m looking at all of these numbers, I guess what is my overall takeaway? It is that they’re a better offensive team than I than I probably give them credit for. At least the numbers are showing that so far this year. The thing that might be lacking a little bit, why are they top 10 in shots and why are they outside the top 10 in expected goals? I still feel like what this team is lacking a little bit of is scoring when they are getting those prime opportunities. Sabres ranked 17th in shooting percentage so far this year, 8.8%. And when you go through some of their individuals, Tage is a little bit lower than he normally is. 9.8% shooting percentage so far this year for TA Thompson. Josh Don is below 10% on the year. And in the games that Rasmus Dene played, as someone that is third on the team in shots, 2.6% shooting percentage for Rasmus Dene. He’s a defenseman. He’s not often going to have a very high percentage in that. Taage sometimes will get you to 17 18%. Den’s careerhigh is 8.5, which is the exact number he’s had in each of the last two years, 8.5. This year it’s at 2.6. Now, he exits the lineup and we don’t know for how long, but folding in him to these numbers could be a little bit of a story as to why they’re not scoring on as many of their shots as you would hope. And it’s Tage, it’s Dene, and it’s Don to a lesser extent, but Tage and Dene. And those are the two guys that we’ve kind of been saying the same thing all year that they’re good players. They’re the Sabres best two players. probably just falling short of the bar that you expect for them and shooting percentage might be u a part of that. So that’s where we’re at with the forwards and the defenseman. Save percentage if you’re interested. It’s going well. 11th in the NHL. Kind of interesting to look at this by the way that in save percentage on the season. This is where kind where we’re at. The NHL does not have many teams that are above a 90% safe percentage, which years ago, not that many years ago, it was common place that every team or a lot of teams in the league were going to be above 90%. The Sabres are at 89.6% save percentage and that’s 11th. Um there are only believe it is eight teams. Yeah, eight teams in the NHL that are above 90%. Seven teams actually, excuse me. So, um that’s a good that’s a good mark. They’re getting good goalending. If I had told you before the year, hey, they’re going to be 11th in save percentage, you would 100% take that and run with it. So, those are some of the numbers on the Buffalo Sabers so far as here. Really, it’s a lot of the middle of the pack, right? Like their best number is ninth and that’s shots four. Their worst number I guess they have a couple of bad ones, right? Like shots allowed is 26th and shot attempts against is 29th. Those are their worst numbers. Everything else is kind of around the middle. Um so that’s kind of what we’re seeing so far this year at five on five. What about on special teams? Power play and penalty kill where we are there. And I want to get into a little bit of the personnel and why I think the power play is starting to fall apart a little bit and I think it’s an it’s a defendable reason for the Sabres and from their standpoint that when we return here on the Locked on Sabres podcast. Today’s episode of the Locked OnS podcast is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. Already looking at some of the odds for tomorrow’s game against Utah. So stay tuned to tomorrow’s episode as we’ll dive in a little bit further on that if you want some action on the game. Maybe you want to bet on your own team. Maybe you want an emotional hedge. 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Stinky Jody Biosi back here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast looking through some of the numbers from the Sabres so far this year and what it might tell us if anything. So, five on five. My overall takeaway, Sabres are a middle-of the road team. I didn’t even give you the kind of the the all-encompassing five on five stat, which is expected goals for percentage, and they’re 14th, 50.2%. Smack dab middle of the league team. Um, so maybe they’re not getting results as well as they maybe deserve so far this year. Well, what about on the penalty kill and on the power play? So, power play started really, really poorly, then it got really, really hot, and then it’s dropped back off again. Penalty kill has just been steady all year long. And we’ll start with that. The penalty kill for the Buffalo Sabres, number one in the NHL still. Now, they’re tied technically with Tampa Bay. I think by a hundth of a percentage they might be above Tampa, but it’s 89.6 for both of those teams. Um, so good start, right? Keep going with that. Jordan Greenway being implemented into the penalty kill a little bit as he was their best penalty killer last year. Looking at Ryan Mloud, Alex Tuck, I love those two on the penalty kill because they cover so much space. They are great skaters. They have long sticks. They are just threatening to get into passing lanes and they’re really, really tough to defend against. And those are two guys that they did have last year and they finished 23rd in penalty kill last year. But I think some of the the new Connor the new guys Connor Timonss for this a little bit. I think Samuelson has had a really strong year. I know he’s not a new guy for the penalty kill, but I’ve liked a lot of their individuals um so far this year. And they’re very good at keeping chances to the outside, not allowing a lot of chaos in front of their net, which is often what a power play is looking to create. And I think the Sabres are pretty good at preventing a lot of that. So, penalty kill, no complaints. Number one, power play, Jackal and Hyde so far this year. And at the end of the day, it’s 17.4% on the power play, which ranks 25th in the National Hockey League so far. Now, they have had power play struggles in the past. this year. I guess my biggest disappointment is it seemed like they had started to turn a corner. And while they lost Josh Norris in game number one and he was supposed to be a big part of the power play this year playing on that right flank really whoever they mixed in there and once they got Josh Don involved and they had the power play unit of Jason Zucker in front of the net, Josh Don kind of in that high slot area. He’d also go below the net and dig out pucks. And then your umbrella, Dene, Tage, and Benson, who are all much more mobile, dynamic than you’ve seen in the past. In the past, it’s been Dian stands at the top, Tae stands at the left, and whoever Dylan Cousins or someone else stands on the right, and they stay in those spots. This year, it was Benson, Tage, Tuck, or excuse me, Benson, Tage, Thompson, all moving around, all in different spots. Sometimes Benson ends up at the point, sometimes Tage does, sometimes Benson’s on the right or the left. like everybody’s moving around and it was running through Benson a lot. Well, he exits, then Dene exits and then Zucker exits and at the moment it’s kind of Tage and Don on their own getting Koulique involved until he goes out. Now he’s out and you look at their power play and this is I think one of those units that is suffering the most from all the injuries and illnesses and you know personal um leaves Diene in that case. So now you’re looking at a unit that has Jack Quinn on it and I’ve liked Jack Quinn’s season but Jack Quinn shouldn’t be on the number one power play unit and it cost him a goal a couple of nights ago against St. Louis. Alex Tuck is on the number one unit. I think Alex Tuck can be okay on the top unit, but it’s not he’s not M not’s best skill set, I would say, as a player. Bo Byum is currently practicing on the number one unit, and I do not believe he is the same level of player on the man advantage that Rasmus Dalene is. Kind of surprising that no Owen Power there. And the other thing that happens while your number one unit is going to play the majority of the minutes is when you’re taking from your second unit to your first now your second unit it’s really taking a hit right now practicing Oseland Roseanne Mloud up front and that’s where you’re at. Your Rochester guys who are in top six roles are going to have to play that second power play unit. the back end having Payton Krebs on it is that’s a sign of where you’re at. Pton Krebs playing on the power play at this stage in his career when we know what he is. I mean, you’re just you’re just left without options. Jordan Greenway would be your alternative. I don’t need to see him on the power play. Uh Tyson Kak, no thanks. Josh Dunn, Beck Menstein, no thanks with that either. Honestly, the mistake that I think Lindy could be making here in having Krebs on the second unit is assuming that another forward is your next best offensive player. I would throw a second defenseman on there. If power is going to be at the top and who are your shooters on that line? Rosanne, Oscelin, and Mloud are more playmakers to me. Krebs doesn’t have a great shot. Power doesn’t have a great shot. You have no good shooters on that second unit. You got Michael Kessler in the off seasonason in part in part because he’s got a banger of a shot. He can shoot at a 100 miles an hour. Is he accurate with it? Not to the extent that you would want or else he would be a starle defenseman. But try that out. Try the big shot with Michael Kessler on the power play and see if he can give you anything. That’s would be the one guy that I would argue they should have on that unit. So, at the moment, they’re 25th in percentage. By the way, scoring chances, 49 per 60 minutes when they’re out there, and that is 28th in the NHL. So, they they deserve every bit of that 25th. This is not all these advanced numbers that you can look at. There’s nothing that tells you, oh no, they’re just getting unlucky and they are generating. They are not getting as many chances as they should be. So, castle ring, I guess, or cross your fingers. that some of these guys get back healthy when we come back. What about some paces of individual players, including Alex Tuck, who is in a contract year and is on pace for some really good numbers. That when we return here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. Today’s episode of the Lockdown Sabers podcast presented by Drip Drop. When you’re hydrated, everything just works better. Your focus, your energy, mood, even your skin. That’s why you got to use Drip Drop. It’s doctordeveloped hydration that keeps you running at full power no matter what your day looks like. Drip Drop isn’t your average sports drink. It delivers three times the electrolytes and half the sugar of leading brands using a sciencebacked formula trusted by medical professionals, firefighters, and over 90% of top college and pro teams. Hydration becomes non should be non-negotiable for you. Drip drop helps you feeling sharper, calmer, honestly just better overall. Got to be a part of your daily routine. Mix a packet in the morning before the gym or during that midday slump. Right now, DripDrop’s offering podcast listeners for this show 20% of your first order. Go to dripdrop.com. Use the promo code locked on NHL. It’s dripdrop.com promo code locked on NHL for 20% off. Stock up now before the heat hits hard and keep your body and mind performing at their best with Drip Drop. Sneaky Jody Biosi back here on the locked on Sabres podcast. Heat’s not coming by the way unless you mean the heater. Uh it’s snowing in Buffalo a lot right now. Um, so individuals what they are on pace for so far this season and there are again only eight players that have played every game and we’ll take a look at six of them so far this year and what they’re on pace for. Starting at the top, the leading scorer on the Buffalo Sabres so far this year is Alex Tuck. In a contract year, there haven’t been a lot of rumors about his extension in the last week or so. Six goals, eight assists, that’s 14 points in 15 games. has a 33 goal pace and a 76 point pace. That will earn him a massive contract in the offseason were he to make it to the open market cuz it would be consistency in his last four years since he has played full seasons for the Buffalo Sabres. 2022 23 and on 36 goals and 79 points, 22 goals and 59 points, 36 goals, 67 points, and this year be 33 goals and 76 points. I mean, 30 plus goals, 70 or so points is what you’re getting from Alex Tuck on almost a year in and yearout basis at this stage in his career. How much longer is that stage in his career? We don’t know, but that’s what you would expect or hope for from Tuck. So, he’s meeting his level of expectation. Tage, I said before the year, if he gets his goal, which was his goal before the year, he said it in the preseason, 50 goals and 100 points, the Sabres would make the playoffs if he were able to do that. He is falling short of that. And not only is he falling short of that, I’m wondering if Team USA is going to pull some BS again and treat a little bit of a slow start from him as a reason to leave him off the team come February. From the Sabres perspective, you’d like more. It’s just what where you’re at. He’s your best player. You’re a team that isn’t loaded with offensive firepower. And to be to be fair, you need Taage. It’s not his fault he’s the only guy, but they can’t afford him to score 33 goals and have 33 assists, 66 points, which is currently what he’s on pace for. 33 is not a bad year. It’s when your bad down year is 33, you’re one of the best goal scorers in the National Hockey League, and that’s what is. But Sabres need more than 33 goals this year from him. Especially, it’s going to be hard for him to do it because I mean, he’s playing with different linemates every night. He was playing with some rookies a couple of nights ago. He’s playing wing. He’s playing center. It’s all over the place with him. He’s got new teammates on the power play every other game. So, there’s a lot going on around him. Um, but I would love to see him get into the 40 range or even a little bit more. And again, his shooting percentage being below 10% is a part of this. He’s gotten chances, it’s just not always going in. uh Josh Don so far this year, 21 goal pace, 27 assist pace, that would be 48 points on the year. That would be a win from Josh Don so far this year. That’s going well. And even though he doesn’t have a lot of points in his last couple of games, in fact, his last point came against Washington um on the first day of the month, 10 days ago. Last goal came on October 30th against Boston. Um, you’d like to see a more consistent level of production, but you’re getting more than you should have expected from him. I mean, he already is more than half or not more. He’s about halfway to his point total from last year in 51 games. This year, nine points in 15 games. Um, he should cruise past what he had last year and which was his careerhigh. Who else? Three other players to go look at real quick. Ryan Mloud. He was an interesting one. I thought there’d be regression from him from last year to this year. He’s around what he was at last year. Last year was a 20 goal season for him. This year he’s on pace for 16 goals and 43 points. You get that year to year from Ryan Mloud. Um that’s a good player. Um little streaky with some of that production, but again, this is what he is. He’s not a guy who’s going to score every single night. He did go through a four game stretch where he didn’t record a point. Um he did get an assist against Carolina. So, Mloud, you get around 20 goals, around 40 points, and I’m good with that. Jack Quinn, it’s kind of funny that I’ve liked his game this year, and he’s not on pace for more. 16 goal pace, 38 points. I mean, it’s exactly what he was last year. 15 goals and 39 points is what he was last season. So, I guess my eyes maybe are lying to me a little bit. Um, but that is not to the standard of what you should hope for him. He was a first round pick, a top 10 pick, and if he’s just going to get 16 goals, 15 goals, and under 40 points every single year, then that wasn’t a very good draft pick, which I think a lot of us have settled on anyway. And then finally, the last guy I want to look at, cuz no one else played enough games, Zack Benson. Zero goals, eight assists in eight games. It’s funny. Um, Bo Byum. He’s got two years on his deal. Future’s a little bit in doubt for him. What kind of year is he having? on pace for five goals and 27 points, which is around where he’s been. Like, listen, if Bo Byum is ever actually going to be, because I always think of him as an offensive defenseman, got in a shot, good skating skills, he looks like he’s pretty skilled. Um, he’s cracked 30 points once in his career. This is his sixth season. If he’s ever going to be like a real good offensive defenseman, fourth overall pick, you would hope for that. Um, let’s let’s go. No, Dene in the lineup, but I mean, as many would point out, he’s not actually that good. He’s not actually that great at the very least. So, him being a 30ish point guy is probably not surprising to a lot of people. Um, but if he’s ever going to take that step forward, I mean, 24 years old, it’s not happening now. Probably never will. All right, that’s that’s all we got. Lot of numbers thrown at you. Um, hopefully you learned something or you came away with a certain takeaway. If I didn’t mention a certain takeaway from all these numbers that you’re uh you’re yelling into your car radio or your headphones, um give us a shout. Text Club’s always a great way to do that. Joins subtext.com/lockdownsabers if you are not already there. If you want more hockey talk, be sure to check out Locked on NHL game night every game, every night throughout the entire season. You can find them wherever you get your podcast. Locked on fantasy hockey, a great listen as well. And we’ll talk to you tomorrow where we will be previewing Sabres and Mamemoth in Utah. The Savers with a road trip coming up here out west Utah in Colorado at the very least. Talk to you then here in the Lockdown Savers podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day. [Music]

Through 15 games of the regular season, the Buffalo Sabres are in last place, but some of the numbers show that they are a middle of the road hockey team, especially offensively. Sneaky Joe looks at the story of what the numbers say this year, including that Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin have let the team down a bit offensively, while the team has actually allowed more defensively this season than you might expect. Is Lindy Ruff’s system working defensively? Can they keep it going with Rasmus Dahlin?

Plus, why the powerplay is struggling again, as Jason Zucker, Zach Benson, and Dahlin are all missing. And why the penalty kill continues to be the best unit in the NHL so far this year, as Jordan Greenway rejoins the mix.

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