The NBA Has an Oklahoma City Thunder Problem…

The NBA Has an Oklahoma City Thunder Problem…

Did you know that Jaylen Williams is actually a pretty decent NBA player? He only gave the Thunder 21 points per game last season, had a 40 ball in the NBA finals, and was the second best player on their championship team. He’s kind of important to what the Thunder do, which makes this weird because Oklahoma City hasn’t had him for a single second this season. And yet somehow the Thunder are 12-1, the best record in basketball. They also have the best defense in basketball. And they’re beating contenders like the Warriors, the Lakers, and the Rockets, all like it’s a formality, doing all of this without their second best player without multiple alldefensive wings. And they’ve played seven out of their first 12 games on the road, enduring the toughest start out of any team, and yet they have the best record. None of this is normal, but the reason it’s all happening has nothing to do with luck. It all starts with the guy who actually might be the best player on planet Earth right now. She Gilgis Alexander appears to be playing basketball on rookie mode right now. Even by superstar standards, what he’s doing is completely absurd. Routinely scoring 30 points in three quarters, then sitting the fourth because the Thunder have already ended the game. He’s playing just 34 minutes a night, far less than other elite players in the league. And yet, he’s still averaging 32.5 points per game on 64% true shooting. One of the most efficient high volume scoring seasons we’ve ever seen. And yet, he does it in just three quarters. The crazy part is that Oklahoma City are just so good around him that it feels like Shay is inevitable. His personal seven nothing runs feel like a cheat code. Just ask the Lakers who just watched him flip the entire game in a matter of possessions. This is superstar momentum control at the highest level. The staff only a handful of players in the league have ever been able to do. And right now SGA is doing it more consistently than ever. Jay is still getting to the rim at an elite level, absorbing contact in a way that looks like foul baiting, but really is just part of basketball. His footwork is strange, offbeat, and absolutely impossible to time. And on top of that, you’re not able to speed him up. He gets to the spots and shots he wants to take, and there really isn’t much a defense can do to stop him from scoring at an elite clip. But what’s made him almost impossible to guard this season is the new layer he’s added to his game, a real pull-up jump shot. Even if he’s not firing threes like a volume sniper, he’s still hitting 36% on pull-up threes this season, which completely changes how defenses now have to guard him. You’re not able to just duck under the screens anymore. You have to pick him up higher because he’s making the three-point shot. Because of that, you’ve got to bite on the pump fakes, giving him more opportunities to get to the free throw stripe. And now that defenders are pressing higher up on him, the driving lanes have been more open than ever. That’s how he’s been able to average over 30 points a game while sitting the fourth quarter more often than he’s had to play in it this season. The playmaking leap, though, has been just as important. Last year, he was good enough to get the Thunder through tough playoff moments, but he was still largely a reactive passer. This season, he’s manipulating defenses, seeing rotations before they even happen, throwing live dribble skips, bounce reads, and timing windows that simply weren’t in his bag a year ago. All of this has completely reshaped Oklahoma City’s offense, and you can see it immediately once he exits the game. the Thunder structure collapse. The shot creation completely dries up and the offensive flow disappears. He’s just irreplaceable, especially without Jaylen Williams. Last season, he pretty much had to play the majority of fourth quarters and the Thunder still won 68 games. This year, he’s sitting more fourth quarters than he’s actually played. And somehow, Oklahoma City have been better. This only happens when your superstar is giving you true MVP level dominance early enough to pretty much end games before they even get to begin. SGA has been that dude this season. The constant, the stabilizer, and the NBA’s most reliable superstar right now. And this season, something else has changed. Oklahoma City don’t just have the best guard on the planet. They also now have a big man who suddenly looks like a three-level scorer. Jet Homegrren was already one of the better defensive players alive last season. And none of that has changed. The numbers say he’s been the third most impactful defender on the best defense in the NBA this season as Oklahoma City hold their opponents to 6.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when homegrowns in the game. But the late this year has come on the offensive side of the floor. The mid-range is real. Being able to pump fake into that soft mid-range floater is very real. The confidence, hunting mismatches, drawing fouls, and cutting behind the defense. It’s all absolutely real. Last season, the Thunder could get a little predictable late in games with a lot of their offense pretty much just being ran through SGA. But now, Chet has become a legitimate release valve, turning tough possessions into easy looks. He’s burying pick and pop threes, punishing switches, and doing all of this while averaging 18.7 points per game on a mindbending 71% true shooting. One of the most efficient scoring seasons from a big. And this truly matters because it unlocks something Oklahoma City has never had before. SGA does not have to go nuclear every night. The bench doesn’t have to shoot 50% from three. The Thunder have a builtin offensive structure because Chad can walk out there and casually give you 25 to cover up for an off night from everybody else. And while his offense is exploding at a new level, what Oklahoma City is doing on the other end is starting to look historic again. Let me remind you that Oklahoma City has played the entire season without Jaylen Williams. They’ve already missed six games from Lou Dort, four from Alex Caruso, and four from Chad Holgrren. Four of their top five defenders. And despite all of that, they still own the number one defense in the NBA, posting a 103.8 defensive rating. And if you don’t know about defensive rating, that’s an incredible number. Last season, the Thunder already had an all-time great defense. But somehow, even while injured, they’ve improved upon that number by a full four points. That’s incredible. Against Luca Donuch, one of the best offensive engines over the past decade, the Thunder held him to just 19 points on 20 shots, 14% from three, a minus 31 plus minus, and seven free throw attempts because he simply could not get to the paint. This is Luca Donuch, the guy who’s averaging 34.9 points on 61% true shooting this season. Literally a walking mismatch for any team. He destroys blitzes, drop coverage, switches, hedges. He has an answer for everything. And yet Oklahoma City made it look like he was dribbling into a maze with every exit sealed. Because every defender on the Thunder is so mobile, they were able to blitz him, hedge him, switch on him, then funnel him straight into Hongrren, forcing ultra deep stepbacks and taking away basically every shot he could usually generate. And they did this without their best Luca defender, Lou Dort. Kase Wallace had to step into that role. And even though he’s a little undersized to be defending Donuch, he did an incredible job looking like a reincarnated version of Dort, fighting through screens and absorbing contact like he’s been defending superstars for years. Luca is arguably the toughest cover in the NBA right now. Strong enough to bully a smaller defender, tall enough to pass straight over you, and skilled enough to score from literally anywhere. And yet, OKC still took away almost every normal look he gets. That’s absurd. And what makes all of this even more terrifying is that the defense isn’t just elite. It’s being really repeatable. Every guy knows exactly where to be and when to be there, and it works no matter who’s missing. Defense like this can win you games, but it’s depth that wins you seasons. And speaking of that depth, the Thunder just uncovered something they did not have last season. And that guy’s AJ Mitchell. A year ago, he was the 38th overall pick, a rookie who barely played and did not crack the playoff rotation. If you asked most fans who he was coming into this season, they probably wouldn’t have had a clue. But all of that’s about to change if it hasn’t already. AJ Mitchell is averaging 16.9 points per game on solid efficiency. and he suddenly looks like a real most improved player of the year candidate on the best team in basketball. He doesn’t play fast, he plays smart. Every move has a setup. Every hesitation has a purpose. Every drive feels like he’s reading the floor one frame ahead of everybody else. When I watch him, I can’t help but feel like I’m watching a mini version of Brunson. the same calm pace, the same patience, and the same I know exactly what I’m about to do kind of rhythm. Against the Lakers, he scored 10 points in just 9 minutes, including a four-point play on a deep catch and shoot three. But the numbers don’t actually capture what made him so special. He knows how to use his body, bait defenders, sell pump fakes, rotate on defense, and keep the ball moving. doing all of this with the composure of a seven-year vet, not a second-year guard who barely saw the floor last season. And by the numbers, he’s actually been their best defensive player for onoff impact with Oklahoma City allowing 10.1 points per 100 possessions when AJ Mitchell was in the game. That’s unbelievable. Being the top onoff defender on the number one defense in basketball is incredible, but that’s exactly what he’s doing. No, he’s not their best pure defender by any means, but he just fits in seamlessly within their ecosystem. And because he’s such a smart, composed player, his rotations off the ball are always on point, pretty much making any lineup he’s a part of better. Some people have even started saying that he could force his way into the starting five. Personally, I don’t really see it. I mean, this team just won a championship with the current starting five. As when Jaylen Williams and Lou Dort return to the lineup, they’ll be right back into the starting five. But Mitchell’s ability to handle the ball, create his own look, and keep their defense suffocating is exactly the kind of asset you’d love from an offbench guard. And if Oklahoma City are going to have this level of production from a secondyear eighth man on the rotation, imagine what they’re going to look like when they’re actually fully healthy. Oklahoma City is now 12-1. Jaylen Williams hasn’t played a minute, and their only loss this season came to the Blazers, a night where they were missing three starters and six rotation players. This team has been blowing everybody out. So, the big question becomes, what does this team look like when everybody’s back? A fully healthy Oklahoma City lineup gives you the best guard in basketball with Shay Gilis Alexander, a top five defensive center with Isaiah Hartenstein, four elite perimeter defenders, three secondary creators, a bench that puts up starter level production, and a young core that seems to improve by the week. It feels like the team has no weakness. There’s no matchup where you would say, “Oh yeah, this team has an answer to the Thunder scheme.” I don’t think you’re going to be able to just load up on SGA and completely break their offense anymore. Not with this new offensive leap from homegrren and not when Jaylen Williams returns. This team doesn’t feel like just a contender. They almost feel like a complete team that you would make on NBA 2K. Last season, they were young, inconsistent, and had real offensive flaws. And yet, that was still good enough to win 68 games and a championship despite being banged up for half the year and not having their playoff starting five until well after the All-Star break. And look, I know what I’m about to say sounds ridiculous, but 70 wins is still on the table. Only two teams in NBA history have ever done it. But after a 12-1 start with the hardest opening schedule in the league and with that schedule now softening to the Hornets, Jazz, and Pelicans in the upcoming stretch, is it really crazy to think Oklahoma City could close out November without a loss? I personally don’t think so. They just won 68 games. And this year, I believe they’re better. is better. Kasem Wallace looks better. The bench is far better. And SGA somehow got better as well. So, is two more wins possible? Absolutely. Will they push for it? Probably not. I believe this Thunder group is firmly focused on April, May, and June. They have arguably the best player in the world, one of the best defensive systems we’ve ever seen, a top six offense that looked sharper than last season, and a young core that now has the experience of winning it all, on top of not even hitting the primes of their career yet. But even with all of that, there is one team in the NBA that I genuinely believe has a real chance to beat Oklahoma City once the playoffs begin. And if you want to know who that team is and where every team in the NBA stands in the current title picture, then you can check out that full breakdown video right now.

The NBA Has an Oklahoma City Thunder Problem…

Did you know Jalen Williams is actually a pretty decent NBA player? Sure — 21.6 points per game last season, a 40-point game in the Finals, the second-best player on a championship team… nothing major. He’s kind of important to what the Thunder do. Which makes it weird, because Oklahoma City hasn’t had him for a single minute this season. And yet somehow, the Thunder are 12–1. They have the best record in basketball. They have the best defense in basketball. And they’re beating contenders — the Warriors, the Lakers and the Rockets — like it’s a formality. All without their second-best player, without multiple All-Defense wings and seven road games in their first twelve enduring the tough schedule out of any team so far.

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// TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 12-1 Without J Dub
1:05 SGA: Best Player in Basketball?
4:56 Chet Holmgren’s Offensive Leap
6:36 OKC’s Defense Is All-Time Great AGAIN
9:15 The Thunder’s Hidden Weapon
11:52 What Happens When They’re Actually Healthy?

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