Why a Tarik Skubal Trade is “Realistic” for #Mariners | #SeattleSports

Why a Tarik Skubal Trade is “Realistic” for #Mariners | #SeattleSports

Ryan Naylor reportedly signing with the Seahawks. What kind of money are the Mariners spending on him? Any idea? Uh I don’t know exactly. Uh kind of our reporting like people were talking to they don’t want to give the number until that it gets finalized. He’s taking the physical I think today at 5 years is what we’ve we’ve been told. I mean I think you’re looking at somewhere between 90 and 100 million. I don’t know that it’ll be over that. Usually when you go longer, the average annual value goes down a little bit. I know a lot of people kind of figured it’d be about four at four at 20 million and maybe it’s five at 20 million close to 100, but I don’t know that it’s more than that. I saw somebody people some people were saying like 130 million. I don’t think that’s the case to go the fifth year. I think the average annual value and the overall will go down a little bit. Um, and I’m sure there’s some uh incentives and stuff thrown in there as well, but you know, a lot of times for people, the extra year is is probably more um like it’s more of a obstacle in these negotiations than the the money itself because like you’re it just, you know, you’re you’re pushing that contract out longer and longer. So, uh, I think the Mariners knew they had to go above and beyond what people thought the market value was. And by giving him 5 years, I mean, that that definitely speaks to a little bit more than what we thought they were going to give him. Hey, Ryan, when we got the um the AL MVP votes, I was frustrated and I was like, man, why are we letting writers and journalists determine MVPs? And then I thought about you and immediately apologized and said, DD should be the only one. He took you out of who who could vote. Um, did you have conversations with any of your peers and and try to figure out, you know, why uh some people voted for Judge instead of Cal Raleigh? Yeah, I I talked to some of the voters and I mean, I think a lot of them basically just said that the sheer offensive numbers and the offensive force that Aaron Judge provided at the plate and then just being pretty solid in right field. I mean, he’s actually a pretty decent rightfielder when he plays. That all of that overtook any value that that Cal may have had from the defensive standpoint and from handling the staff. And and in a way, I mean, like a lot of Boers like they’re not going to see the dayto-day stuff that that I would have that I saw, you know, the value in terms of working with pitchers, the gametoame stuff. I mean, they’re not up there’s no all 22. They’re not watching film of this and you know they’re going off of the a lot of the empirical numbers and and a lot of the empirical numbers said that Judge had one of the best offensive seasons in probably 20ome years you know the best post steroid one of the best post steroid offensive seasons in that’s ever been put out there and that that meas that mattered more than what you can’t measure which is Cal’s value as a leader as a defensive player you know handling a pitching staff like you know you can look at framing metrics and some of the defensive metrics weren’t as kind to Cal this year as maybe they were a year ago but like you know those things people still kind of those things only paint one picture like I think we know that the value of Cal also is the leadership quotient handling the staff putting the staff ahead of him um calling pitches all those stuff that can’t be measured by data and can’t truly be appreciated appreciated by people that aren’t there every day. I think everybody knows the value of a catcher, but I think a lot of people felt like Judge’s leadership, he is kind of the voice of that Yankees team and his offensive presence alone outweighed that. To me, there was no wrong answer. You could vote for Judge, you could vote for Cal, and I didn’t have a problem with either of it because I thought I felt like Judge’s numbers were really ridiculous to the point that that yeah, he was worthy as well. I want to go back to your point about, you know, I think a lot of people understand the value of a catcher. I don’t know, man. Like, I feel like I learned so much more about the catching position this year just based on the sheer number of features that I was reading about it with with you guys obviously putting out so many amazing ones, but I look at how many people are pointing to those defensive stats and it’s like, how do you even I know you mentioned this with your answer, but like I don’t even know how you capture what a catcher does. it it it really kind of falls into that category of F4 is going to capture certain things. It in no way is going to fully encapsulate what a catcher does. And I think because of that, there are even people covering the game that don’t quite get it. And some someone’s catcher might have a different kind of role than than one like Cal or play less. Yeah. Ex No, exactly. That’s the thing is like there are very few catchers like Cal in Major League Baseball that catch as much as he does that kind of put I mean like I think all catchers want their pitchers to do well and and you know they say that’s the priority and this and that but to be honest like Cal truly puts the catchers ahead of him. Like if he has to sacrifice time to go hit in the cages or whatever because he’s still working on a game plan with a starter then he does it. you know, like during the the spring, he’s putting in 12-hour days to make sure he gets time with his pitchers, time for recovery, then his offensive stuff. You know, he’s logging in all these kinds of long days because that’s what’s more important to them. Not all catchers are like that. And I think you’re right in the sense that not even all writers can truly see what goes on. Not everybody’s as open about what they do like the Mariners are. Like lets us into the kind of the background of it. You know, a few years ago, I wrote that story where I I followed Cal around for an entire day. And that meant me getting there at 4:30 in the morning at spring training and not leaving till six at night, you know, following him around for an entire day. And like not everybody get can write that. Not everybody gets to see it. I guess for me, because as as a an infielder who ate his way into a catching position in college, I had to live it every day. And the beating that I took and I mean like I’m not even catching good pictures. Like Cal takes a beating every day, but you have to watch for it. You have to understand it. And I think I mean like I know a lot of people are mad at the writers, but like this wasn’t this wasn’t like a no-brainer decision. This wasn’t like voting for Otani in the National League. This was a hard one. And I think a lot of the writers I talked to really went back and forth on it. And you know, you you you see different numbers, you see different comparisons and and some of them went with judge, but I I know this much and you know, not to be all like overreaching, I think there the writers that made this decision, the 30 writers that had to vote on this took a little bit more time than the people doing a lot of more important decisions that they vote upon in their lives. So like it was uh there was a lot of thought that went into it and you know, a lot of people that voted wrote about it. You know, Tim Booth and I wrote about it. I know all the people at the Athletic who had votes on stuff wrote about it because we knew it was going to be controversial. This has been debated for a long time and then you’re using stats like batting average which have been debated as their their value. You’re using war, you’re using all this stuff and then you know you have the kind of old school thoughts about is like what does a keer catcher represent versus what an outfielder represents. To me a catcher represents everything. Probably because I’ve covered the Mariners for 20 years. I’ve seen a lot of bad catching in my life and to see somebody as good as Cal on a daily basis and put up the numbers he did, you know, it’s it’s truly amazing and and honestly, I don’t know that he’ll ever do something like this again. I don’t know that we’ll ever see an opportunity for a catcher to win the most valuable player award. Um, it hasn’t happened since Buster Buster only in 2012. I don’t know when it’ll happen again. And if it does, it will be Cal doing it because very few catchers play as much as he does, log as many at bats and play appearances and produce the way he does. And you know, it’ll be hard for him to do that again next year. I want to shift over to um just I mean Stacey touched on already just the signing of Naylor, right? And to me, Ryan, it makes me feel like, okay, this this uh the management is taking this seriously and they’re doing something that I’m not used to doing, which is just doing the obvious and getting getting talent, right? Or retaining some talent. Does that make you feel like there could be a shift in their approach or just was it just an easy decision? Yeah, I think there’s a shift in the approach simply because of the success of last season. You know, they have some money. you know, in the last few years, they haven’t had the dollars or they weren’t, you know, Dotto and Hollander weren’t given the budgetary dollars to go out and kind of make these sorts of moves. And and to be honest too, like it’s it’s not easy getting players to resign or to sign here. You know, all of this worked, you know, and texting with some people in the Mariners front office about this when, you know, the news started to break and getting confirmation everything like, you know, uh, one of the executives who talked really, really fast and is a big fan of Ohio State just said it had to get done. You know, this is a guy that wanted to be here. This is a guy they wanted to be here. And when you have that in common, then you can’t mess around. You get it done. You find a way to get it done. Even if you go out of your comfort level. And I I know on this show, I’ve been very critical of the Mariners about being unwilling to get out of their comfort level when it comes to signing guys or spending money on free agents. Well, they’ve done it. I mean, like five years is more than anybody thought Josh Maylor was going to get. They went out and gave him five years and that’s why they’re going to get him because that’s what they realize is look, this guy fits. He wants to be here. They want him here. Make it happen. you know that they just like it would have been a colossal failure this off seasonason if they couldn’t have made this work because of you know salary or whatever or they let it happen where the Mets came in and jumped in and gave him a whole bunch of money figure out how to get it done early offer a really good deal that makes him say no I’m going to take this because this is probably the best offer I’m going to get and it’s a place I want to be at and I think that’s what the Mariners did great hints about the executive um Andy McKay Tony Arnich and Christopher Negron are all leaving. What’s going on with uh some of the coaching turnover we’re seeing? Yeah, it’s, you know, it’s kind of when you when you have good when you have good seasons, people look at you and say, “Okay, well, they they must be doing something right.” For for Andy McKay, it’s different because he’s always wanted to be on the field and in the dugout, you know, on the big league level. He was going to get that chance in 22 and then uh one of the guy that was replacing him as director of player development decided to leave to help run a family business. So he went back to his old job and then never got that chance again to be on the big league staff. That’s what he’s always wanted and Steven Vote offered him that opportunity. I think you know I think he knew that if he didn’t take this now he might not get another chance for a while. And then with Arnoric and Negron going to bench coach positions that’s a promotion. You know you’re one step away from being a manager usually you know and that’s it comes with it’s a title bump. It comes with more money. You know, Tony was in the bullpen coach. That’s not really where he wanted to be. He liked the job, but you know, he’s a catcher. He’s a former catcher. He’s got that catching background. He wants to have more overarching kind of responsibilities. And Negro, I think everybody knows that that guy has a kind of charisma. He’s bilingual, everything else to be a future manager. You know, you’re not going to get that opportunity staying there and coaching first base when you can get a bench coaching job somewhere else. So, I think it’s like it represents more money, title bump, everything else. They had pretty much they had a lot of people looking at their staff this year. And the scary thing for them was the possibility of losing Trent Blank and Pete Woodworth, their two pitching guys, because both of their contracts were up. So like they were free to kind of look around, but the Mariners made sure to lock them up before anybody could take them because that would have been really bad. Those guys are super responsible for helping find and develop these pitchers and losing either of them would have been bad and they were able to keep both of them. What do you think the next move is? I mean, Stacey and I were saying pretty much is Palano. Palano kind of scares me, man. Like, I believe in him, obviously, cuz you can’t ignore his performance this year, but he’s like he’s one for two when it comes to performances. How do you feel about Palano and what do you think they should do? Yeah, I mean, I don’t think they should go like three years or anything. I think they should kind of give him the Mitch Garver deal, two years, 24 million. You know, maybe give him an option for a third if he’s got like a vesting option kind of like what he had this year where he performs. But other than that, no, I wouldn’t, you know, break the bank on him. And I think again that’s a guy that wants to It’s similar to Naylor. He’s a guy that wants to be in Seattle. He likes the team. He likes the familiarity. He doesn’t like change a lot. So I don’t think he’s out there like looking to ring every dollar out of the situation. So maybe that’s one that gets done. I I think they were hoping they could get it done right away as well. Um and then like the reliever market’s pretty busy or is pretty open right now. They want a left-handed reliever to help out Gabe Spire and they’ll probably want another right-handed reliever that can get some swing and miss. I mean, there’s a whole market of them out there. So, they’re going to take a look at those guys as well. I don’t know that they’ll be the big names, but they need one more leverage guy to go with that group because Bizardo, Fire, Munoz, you know, they all threw a ton and Brash is coming back off the injury. So, you need to add a few more pieces to the bullpen. So, that might be an easier sign because you’re looking at maybe a one or twoear deal that you don’t have to negotiate as much. So that may that may happen before Palano, but I would think Palanco is the next guy that position-wise that they could probably take care of. Is there a potential big trade that they could still make? And we’ve been talking a lot about Trick Scubble. Um, and I can’t tell if that’s just sports talk fodder, like it’s that time of the year, we’re just going to talk about potential things or with the number of pretty reputable names talking about it if there are it’s kind of like a where there’s smoke, there’s fire situation. Is it a realistic possibility? I think it’s a realistic possibility because they’ll always listen on anything and they’ll always like stick their nose in it to find out if there’s anything there, you know, that would be I think for them to want to do that they would have to have finished their roster a little bit more had some clarity with Palanco or what they’re going to do and the relievers. But yeah, I mean like they they have more talent than anybody probably overall farm system depth and you know the thing is like everybody thinks Scoo’s going to cost the world. He will and he won’t because it’s a one-year deal. You only get him for a rental. So, it’s not going to be as much as maybe you would think you’d have to give up. Uh like with Juan Sto, you had him for a year and a half, so it was different. But, I mean, it’s still going to cost a lot, but they they should listen. Why not? You know, take a look and listen. Maybe it’s not as painful as you think it’s going to be and and all of a sudden, you know, you add that horse to a rotation. And what it does honestly is like if you did want to make a move with one of your other pitchers to go out and supplement your team, maybe your position base a little bit, you could do that too. So they’ll definitely listen. I’m you know I don’t the starting pitching market’s so deep right now and there’s so many guys like the idea of trading Luis Castillo I just don’t think is going to happen and they I think they you know they know he’s still probably trending downward but they need him because he seems to make 30 starts every year. Not all the prettiest ones, but still the volume that he provides is important. But his no trade clause is gone. His no trade clause is gone now. So they could I mean like Catel Martes out there, maybe they look at a position player like that. You know, there’s there’s a lot of guys if if the Mar if the Tigers are willing to move TK Scoo and are they willing to move the Kirby killer Carrie Carpenter? Maybe they are. I mean like he would fit in really well with the Mariners in a lot of ways too. Left-handed bat with some pop that can play in other all over. I mean, like there there are trades out there and I think we know that with Jerry and Justin, they kind of they can kind of come up with stuff that nobody’s ever thought of and and use it to their advantage. So, I I expect there will be trades this off seasonason. They they can’t help themselves and not trade, I think. How are you feeling about third base? You feel like um Ben should be given a shot or you feel like another move should be made? I think, you know, it’s it’s interesting like with what I don’t if I don’t think they would get they would I think they would offer Suare as a one-year deal, you know, not for very for, you know, 8 to 10 million, maybe 10 to 12 and then because there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal, you can move on from it. But yeah, I think if they had to like if say they get Palanco and they’re just not finding anything out there in the third base market and it’s not a great third base market, then maybe they would look at, you know, using Ben Williamson there at third, you go out and find another lefty bat to comp to platoon with them for a little bit and then when Colt Emerson’s ready, maybe you move him there. I know he plays shortstop, but Bobby Wit Junior’s first year at the big league level is at third base. The Mariners are very comfortable with the idea that if Colt Emerson hits and hits well, they could use him at third base in a platoon with Ben Williamson and kind of break him in that way. And then, you know, next year he would probably be your starting shortstop if all goes right. But, um, yeah, that’s that’s the one spot where I think if they had to use internal pieces, they would feel comfortable. Like Palano doesn’t isn’t really their second baseman, but they need they need an impact hitter. you know, they don’t look at him as a position wise like, oh, he’s second base or, oh, he’s the age, you know, he can play either. They just need a hitter to go in that spot. I mean, he basically batted, you know, in the three, four, five spot all year and they need somebody behind Cal or Julio to to hit and they, you know, even bringing back Naylor, you still want one more guy. And the value of Palano is the switch hitter in him. So they they’ll they need to get another impact bat and where they where it plays at, you know, who knows? I mean, like I said, they can use some DHS and stuff like that as well. Ryan Divish kind enough to join us on the Emerald Queen Casino Sportsbook hotline. Check out the latest from Ryan at seattle times.com or the Seattle Times app. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks, Ryan. Thanks, guys.

Seattle Times Mariners beat writer Ryan Divish joins Michael Bumpus & Stacy Rost (Bump & Stacy) to recap the Josh Naylor extension and what it might cost, the turnover in Mariners coaches, and if Tarik Skubal could be a real option for the Mariners.

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0:00 – How much money did Josh Naylor sign for?
1:22 – AL MVP
4:00 – Value of the catching position
8:08 – Naylor’s extension signaling a shift in approach?
10:05 – Mariners coaching turnover
12:00 – Jorge Polanco
13:25 – Tarik Skubal potential trade?
15:45 – Mariners third base situation

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