[Sabremetrix] Looks like the Sabres have a pretty clear #1 and #2 in net right now
November 18, 2025
[Sabremetrix] Looks like the Sabres have a pretty clear #1 and #2 in net right now
13 comments
This completely matches the eye test as well. It’s a very small sample size for Colten Ellis but that’s also why they should keep giving him games. See how long he can keep it up.
Ellis is ridiculously good
Trade UPL yesterday
Shhhh… we need UPL to look better so we get more for him when we trade him.
Then he goes on to win the Stanley cup.
Duh.
With the way their goaltenders are currently playing, STL has got to feel pretty dumb putting Ellis on waivers.
Time to move on from UPL
Literally did not need the statistics to make this prediction. Even at the beginning of the season
Maybe just constantly giving guys contracts they don’t deserve isn’t the best way to finally get back to being a playoff team.
Ellis has been good but once a rookie goalie has 10-15 NHL games there’s enough tape on them that NHL shooters can start finding weak spots and going for them
So if he comes back down in a month he’s not getting shittier he’s just on the usual trajectory
Love the random Mika Noronen profile pic from this account lol
Ellis and UPL have only played 4 games this year, not a big enough sample size for this statistic to be accurate. I think all 3 goalies have played good for the most part. Upl had one rough start his first game back, but can you blame him for that? or the GM who only gave him one game on his conditioning stint in Rochester? Upl stole a game for us in his 2nd game back, and then relieved Lyon after a poor start a few games ago. The reality is they’re probably not going to overreact and trade UPL after 4 good games from an unproven goalie. The only thing adams could do that would be bad is not trade any of them and create a log jam where Levi doesn’t have a clear path if he earns it.
I’m all for using analytics but it’s easy to be fooled if you aren’t using it with context and ideally more than 4 games as a sample size.
Ellis may just be your #1 goalie. If that is true, not only is UPL expendable, but Levi becomes expendable as well. Ellis is still going to have growing pains though. We can’t jump overboard the minute he has a tough game and gives up a lot of goals or gets pulled. That is part of the process of developing a #1 starter.. But based on everything he has done so far, both his success in the AHL and so far in the NHL, I think KA just might have fallen back asswards into the future goalie of the Buffalo Sabres for the next 7 years. However, this is not something that we can take a “watch and see” approach. The decision has to be made on UPL now, probably in the next couple of weeks and Levi we probably would need to move by the trade deadline this year if you want to go with Ellis
A goalie that played 4 games and a career backup XD
![[Sabremetrix] Looks like the Sabres have a pretty clear #1 and #2 in net right now](https://www.rawchili.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/7rsclg48812g1-1179x1024.jpeg)
13 comments
This completely matches the eye test as well. It’s a very small sample size for Colten Ellis but that’s also why they should keep giving him games. See how long he can keep it up.
Ellis is ridiculously good
Trade UPL yesterday
Shhhh… we need UPL to look better so we get more for him when we trade him.
Then he goes on to win the Stanley cup.
Duh.
With the way their goaltenders are currently playing, STL has got to feel pretty dumb putting Ellis on waivers.
Time to move on from UPL
Literally did not need the statistics to make this prediction. Even at the beginning of the season
Maybe just constantly giving guys contracts they don’t deserve isn’t the best way to finally get back to being a playoff team.
Ellis has been good but once a rookie goalie has 10-15 NHL games there’s enough tape on them that NHL shooters can start finding weak spots and going for them
So if he comes back down in a month he’s not getting shittier he’s just on the usual trajectory
Love the random Mika Noronen profile pic from this account lol
Ellis and UPL have only played 4 games this year, not a big enough sample size for this statistic to be accurate. I think all 3 goalies have played good for the most part. Upl had one rough start his first game back, but can you blame him for that? or the GM who only gave him one game on his conditioning stint in Rochester? Upl stole a game for us in his 2nd game back, and then relieved Lyon after a poor start a few games ago. The reality is they’re probably not going to overreact and trade UPL after 4 good games from an unproven goalie. The only thing adams could do that would be bad is not trade any of them and create a log jam where Levi doesn’t have a clear path if he earns it.
I’m all for using analytics but it’s easy to be fooled if you aren’t using it with context and ideally more than 4 games as a sample size.
Ellis may just be your #1 goalie. If that is true, not only is UPL expendable, but Levi becomes expendable as well. Ellis is still going to have growing pains though. We can’t jump overboard the minute he has a tough game and gives up a lot of goals or gets pulled. That is part of the process of developing a #1 starter.. But based on everything he has done so far, both his success in the AHL and so far in the NHL, I think KA just might have fallen back asswards into the future goalie of the Buffalo Sabres for the next 7 years. However, this is not something that we can take a “watch and see” approach. The decision has to be made on UPL now, probably in the next couple of weeks and Levi we probably would need to move by the trade deadline this year if you want to go with Ellis
A goalie that played 4 games and a career backup XD