Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Thursday Night Football Preview

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Thursday Night Football Preview

What’s the one big number that drives my TNF winner and score the most? Maybe I should say my 1.04 big number. This is the numbers game. I’m Cynthia Freeland and let’s break down Bills at Texans. Our Thursday night football matchup for week 12 [Music] if you missed the midseason playoff show. episode predictions for the rest of the season based on being just over the halfway point. Check it out. It’s on this channel and still very relevant, maybe even more relevant in certain regards after the way week 11’s games played out, which is a good reminder to subscribe here on YouTube and everywhere you get your pods so you never miss out. Speaking of the way week 11 games played out, of the 15 total games, my model went 11 and four straight up, 410, and one against the spread. woof and 5-10 against the spread. So very good straight up. Got a little work to do against the spread. However, it brings my season to 64% straight up, 50.3 against the spread, and 54.3 on totals. Week 11 begins in Houston. The Bills are 5 1/2 point road favorites. The total in this one 43 and a half points. My model says Buffalo wins it by six points, 26-20. I feel more confident in more points being scored than 43 and a half than I do about Buffalo winning by more than five and a half points. So, interesting note on this one. And by the way, this does include no CJ Strad, no Jaylen Petri, who have already been ruled out. So, more points than expected in this matchup. Before we get into the game breakdown, let’s talk about the playoffs for a second. Right now, Houston is the first team out, meaning the eight seed. And they do have an edge over Kansas City. That’s based on their win percentage in conference play. That last part, conference play, adds some extra juice to their side of the equation here in week 12. Buffalo occupies the five seed at the moment, and my model projects them to be and stay in that slot come January, with their most likely first round game being a trip to Baltimore for a rematch of week 1’s action. Should Buffalo lose this game, then their chances of having their first playoff game in Indianapolis, meaning their chances of ending up as the six seed, increase five percentage points. Let’s start the game breakdown where we always do. That’s the away team’s offense against the home team’s defense. The Bills run game by running backs last week against the Bucks was not what we’ve been used to this season. James Cook was limited to 48 yards on 16 carries. That’s a three- yard per carry average. What did Tampa do? Well, they limited his impact on outside rushes. He was stuffed four times behind the line of scrimmage on outside attempts to the left. This is partly a second order impact of Daltton Concincaid being out and partly Todd Bulls devoting resources to stopping Cook, especially on the outside. On the season though, Cook’s attempts and production have been pretty balanced with 524 yards, 11 explosive runs, and four touchdowns on inside attempts and 444 yards, 12 explosive runs, and four touchdowns to the outside. The Texans run defense ranks fifth best at limiting rushing yards over expected. there at -35 yards and their eighth best in EPA per rush allowed to the inside at.12 and tied for allowing the ninth lowest yards per rushing attempt to outside runs at 4 and a half. It is worth noting that one of their key runs stoppers linebacker Aziz Alsha is limited in practice as of this recording. As for the Veil’s passing potential since their buy, which was in week seven, Josh Allen has completed seven of 14 passes of 20 plus air yards for 209 yards. That’s the fifth most yards. And by the way, has four touchdowns on them, which is tied for the most. In weeks 1 through six, he completed just seven of 21 deep throws for 197 yards and three interceptions. The Texans defense, though, has allowed just 20% of opponent deep throws to be completed this season. That’s tied for the lowest mark in the league. And also, they’re averaging a league low seven yards per attempt allowed. As a reminder, they have 10 interceptions, which are tied for third most. and they’ve only allowed 10 passing touchdowns, which was tied for the fourth fewest. Flipping it over to the other side, as in Houston’s offense against Buffalo’s defense. Well, over their past three games, the Texans have used motion on 67% of their snaps. That’s the 12th highest rate in the league. This is a big increase from their first 8-week average of 56%. Why am I talking about this? Well, especially in the run game, this comes at a great time because Buffalo has some splits against motion versus non-motion snaps in the run game. Overall, the Bills have allowed 5.4 yards per carry, two running backs this season. That’s third most in the league. But when they’re facing run plays with motion, the Bills have allowed a league high 5.9 yards per carry, and a 17% explosive run rate. When they don’t use motion, as in when opponents don’t use motion, the Bills have allowed just 4.1 yards per carry. that’s 17th and just a 10% explosive run rate that ranks 13th. My projection of course with Davis Mills under center for the Texans is really to talk a little bit about Nico Collins who’s caught nine of his 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown in week 11, including five of six targets over 10 airs for 63 yards and a touchdown. While Buffalo is one of the defenses who are tied with the Texans for only allowing 10 passing touchdowns. Again, remember that’s fourth fewest. Only four of them have been on downfield passes. That is tied for the fewest in the league. To compare, Houston has surrendered seven of their 10 passing touchdowns to downfield passes. So 10 plus airers. Bottom line, and here’s where that big number comes in. I have a six-point win for the Bills, 26 to 20. But again, I feel more confident in the point total exceeding 43 and a half points. The big advantage for the Bills, which drives their six-point win, here it is, the number Josh Allen’s scrambling ability. The Texans defense has so many great aspects, but they are tied with the Jets with a 1.04 EPA per scramble average allowed. That is the most in the NFL. And um unless you’ve been living under a rock or not watching ever, Josh Allen, you know what he can do with his legs. Let’s round this TNF preview out with good for six. Six stats to track for the first game of week 12. Number one, Josh Allen to earn at least 34 rushing yards. Number two, Josh Allen to score a touchdown just anytime. For both one and two, the vulnerability Houston’s defense has to scrambles against a scrambling superhero equates to yards and per just a fun note here, it would be the first touchdown Houston has allowed on scrambles or sneaks yet this season. Number three, Davis Mills to earn at least eight rushing yards. The Bills forecast to get pressure on Mills, which drives my total for him on the ground over 14 yards in my median, which means moderate projection. Number four, James Cook anytime touchdown. I like him to surpass 74 rushing yards as well. So there you go. It’s a two for one in point4 here. Number five, Nico Collins to catch at least five passes. While Buffalo has shown strength against the air attack, Collins should continue to see volume from Davis Smells. Number six, Khalil Shakir to haul in at least five passes. This one is riskiest because of how great the Texans pass defense is. And last week against the Bucks, Shakir had one reception for negative3 yards, but he had at least six receptions in the three games prior to that in each of the three games prior to that. If you want an alternate here, go to the other side of this matchup and look at Jaden Higgins to have at least three receptions. The rest of week 12’s game breakdowns and fantasy notes will be posted soon, which is another reason why you should be subscribed here on YouTube or anywhere you get your pods. Make sure, of course, to leave a comment if you have any questions about any of the remaining games for week 12. I love to hear it. I will answer it. If you have any playoff questions, those are fair game as well. Remember, on Wednesday, all of my numbers get posted on numbers. Nu mbers.me. You can download my whole spreadsheet right from that website. And most of all, thank you so much for hanging out. We have a good one on Thursday Night Football. So enjoy the football. [Music]

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Thursday Night Football Preview. We breakdown Cynthia’s predictions for this matchup and we’ll go over player projections for James Cook, Josh Allen, Nico Collins and many more!

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