As for the position players, I wrote up Grisham for our Top 50 Free Agents list, and wasn’t sure what to make of him. Because he was really good for the Yankees in 2025, and he accomplished this by being a completely different player than he was early in his career. A speed-and-defense guy for years, Grisham hit 34 home runs and was barely passable in center.
All of our contract predictions for Grisham came in somewhere around three years and $54 million, which is the neighborhood of contract where the QO makes a difference. You’re already outbidding the market for a guy with some serious questions; do you want to lose two high draft picks and $1 million in international bonus pool money too?
Discretion is probably the better part of valor here for Grisham. He can continue to play for a winning team, in a park that could not be a better fit for his swing, and score a million runs hitting in front of Aaron Judge. And as one of the younger players in this free agent class, Grisham can afford to take a do-over. If he does all this again next year, he’ll make that $18 million AAV look like peanuts, especially if the Gold Glove-quality center field defense comes back. If not, well, there was serious downside possibility for a player like this in what might be a bear market.
So while it’s unusual for anyone to accept a qualifying offer, and unprecedented for four players to do it on the same day, I get it. Every one of them has a reason to take $22 million now, rather than risk it on the open market, especially given the upcoming labor uncertainty. And double-especially, considering that each of them had been saddled with the millstone of draft pick and international bonus pool compensation.
More than that, I think it’s a product of teams being a little looser with the QO. It’s not just a formality for stars, it’s a legitimate market-rate offer for players who are either merely above average or have a history of injury. If you’re going to sign a one-year prove-it deal anyway, why waste the whole offseason waiting for it to come?
5 comments
As long as they dont use this to justify not doing something elsewhere. If their outfield is say Judge, belli, Tucker and a healthy stanton who cares if we have an expensive 1 year backup.
But if they don’t make a run at someone because of this, shame!
Trent must know that the strike is going to wipe out 2027, take as much money now and see it as 11 million for two years.
The lockout should be considered as well here. If Belli or Tucker don’t come here however, the OF market is not very good. I would argue this is worth it as at worst we have an overpaid 4th OF.
His advanced stats don’t seem to indicate this is a fluke but we will see
It’s a smart investment and it’s only 1 year.
I’m just unhappy that Jasson isn’t going to be seeing more time