NFL Week 12 Preview 2025: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans | Chris Simms Unbuttoned | NFL on NBC

The Buffalo Bills 7 and3 taking on the five and five Texans. Buffalo is favored by five and a half on the road with an overunder of 43 and a half. DraftKings has 87% of the spread money on Buffalo. You are 2 and8 against the spread versus the Bills. And this is desperation in different forms for both teams. The Bills desperately trying to catch the Patriots. The Texans desperately trying to pull their way into the wild card chase. Division title is going to be tough now. Even though they still have two games against the Colts, they’re behind by three games in the AFC South. Who do you like in this one? I I’m like I’m at a coin flip here with this football game here. First off, you know, you know my thoughts on the Texans defense, right? I do. I think they can shut down and slow down Josh Allen and company and that offense. Yes, I do. We saw that last year. I mean, they did it early on in the season last year. They have the kind of speed on the edge that can contain people like Josh Allen, right? So that kind of speed is where Josh Allen when he plays the Houston Texans, some of those magical plays we saw him make last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in company, I don’t think he’s going to be able to make that against the Houston Texans. Let alone their scheme on the back end is really special, too. And you know, my thoughts about Buffalo, they’re not all that special as far as their ability to throw the ball at will against whoever it is, especially a team as talented as the the Texans secondary. Now, can the Bills run the football? That’s going to be the big question of this one all, you know, alto together. And and I would say no. I don’t expect them to. The the the this is the the gifted part of the Texans defense is they’re so fast and so good. They can play run defense and still get out of there and play pass when you’re when they’re worried about the run. So with all that, I I think I look at that and go, “Oo, okay, I like that part of the Texans.” But then then there’s the side of do I trust the Texans offense to be able to move the ball consistently against the Bills defense, right? The Texans try to be balanced on that side of the ball. They’re not a real good running football team, but they try to stay patient with it. Right? So that’s where I’ve gone back and forth in this one. And I want to take the Texans, but I just don’t have the guts to do it. If it was CJ Strad, I would take the Texans in this game. Nobrainer. I’m gonna take the Bills 17 to 14. I know. I know. I I There’s a really There’s a part of me that wants to flip it and really go 1714 the other way. And you know what? Screw it. I’m gonna I’m going to go with the Texans. I’m going Texans 1714. I am I’m doing it. Yep. I may regret that come Thursday night. For me, the analysis is very simple. All due respect to Davis Mills, Josh Allen versus Davis Mills in prime time with postseason implications oozing from it. how can you go against Josh Allen even with that great Texans defense but it was enough to get me to find a number even though you know as you know I don’t look at the spreads but I had a feeling 2117 would give me that that needle that it was more than a four-point spread and it is it’s five and a half I think the Bills will do enough I think the Bills understand the stakes here they are desperately chasing the New England Patriots and I was talking about this earlier like you know the the Bills had their years before the Patriots got good again and now it’s like, “Oh the Patriots are good again.” Right? You gave us three years off. I mean, come on. Right. I want to I want to run something by you that I thought of earlier today. I I know we got to get on to the next game, but Keon Coleman reportedly will be a healthy scratch on Thursday night. And it originates from the same outlet that reported first last week, right, that Keon Coleman was going to be a healthy scratch. So that that outlook has an in with Keon Coleman’s camp, I assume. Is it possible that this Keon Coleman situation is kind of a a microcosm or a test case of the overriding question, is it the talent or is it the coaching? Because it’s the GM that drafted Keon Coleman early in round two last year. And it’s the coaching staff that is seeing fit to keep Kon Coleman out of uniform the past couple of weeks. And I always look for that when when pressure is applied and teams aren’t living up to the standard. Is there going to be that dysfunction, that disagreement where there’s a player who, you know, under the politics of football, hey, we got to play this guy. We got to justify this pick. This is a guy we put a lot into. We could have had Xavier Worthy. We traded down. We took Keon Coleman. Versus a coaching staff that’s like, screw this. I just got to win games and he’s not doing enough to help. And oh, by the way, if the owner wants to know why our high pick isn’t playing, I’m I didn’t pick him. Yeah, I got to coach the 53 guys I have. So, I just wonder whether there’s just some of that because the Bills clearly aren’t living up to what was expected of them this year. No, I I hear you. I I think to one, I think McDerman and Brandon be are on the same p page with a lot of things. And I think something like this wouldn’t happen without them all just going, “Yeah, forget it. Don’t play them.” Right. I think it’s gotten to a point where they’re like, both sides are willing to go, let’s not double down on a mistake and screw our offense over just because of that. Right. So, I’ll give them credit there. And yeah, just with my knowledge of them and how they operate, I I would think that was a conversation that goes down in totality with everybody there to make that type of move. But Pete will tell you, two weeks ago when they played Miami, I looked at that film and I came back on my podcast and went, man, Keon Coleman, I mean, I don’t know if he even cares about playing. He was the first read on a few plays. Josh Allen hits his back step. He’s ready to throw and Keon Coleman’s just kind of d jogging like 80%, not even where he needs to be. That was concerning. Let alone, we know he’s not that super explosive anyways. And yeah, it speaks to the problem of they just they’re a little scary with the playmakers there. Last thing I’ll say before this, Mike, and you tell me what you think here. The Texans, too. I worry about there’s such an emotional fly around, go crazy type of defense. Can they do that on a short week and rev it up again so quickly? That’s something I do worry about with these Thursday night games with a team like the Texans who are not real big and they’re all predicated on fly around and run through the wall and go crazy. It’s not easy to rev it up as we always talk about, you know, three, four days later. Well, and if you put too much into it, you overpursue and Josh Allen slips past you and buys enough time and he finds a guy 50 yards down the field wide open for a touchdown like we saw on Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So, so Josh Allen is a dangerous guy to be all revved up and hyped up and chasing around because he’s the guy that you have a hard time catching. All right. Yo yo yo. Thanks for watching, homies. We are now in the NFL season here on Chris Sims Unbutton. Hit subscribe to get our weekly picks, game recaps, film deep dives, and much, much more. Thanks again for watching. Subscribe, rate, review. Peace out. You know where to find us.

Mike Florio and Chris Simms preview Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 12 between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans. #NBCSports #NFL #ChrisSimmsUnbuttoned
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NFL Week 12 Preview 2025: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans | Chris Simms Unbuttoned | NFL on NBC
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23 comments

  1. Chris just fumbled the ball at the one yard line picking the Texans.

    Florio doesn’t seem to have his hand on the pulse of the AFC East. Buffalo is not desperate to chase NE. New England is desperate to beat Buffalo.

  6. Chris is the ultimate Bills hater this year! And Florio has been wrong about the Bills for three years. The they way they talk and rete the Bills you would think they were 4-7 or 2-8. SMH! They are freaking 7-3 and a half game back of the patriots. Come on guys!

  8. Allen's Undefeated TNF record vs Davis Mills + a HOU D that's less explosive/effective on short rest should be a no brainer, but Simms was already too committed by the time he considered it. Watching Simms bet the Bills is riveting. He's really chasing it. A bookie's dream.

  12. What is the over/under on fake first half penalties on the Bills? Like last year when they were in Houston.
    If the officiating is fair Bills will win. Go Bills‼️

  13. Josh Allen is a flawless 8–0 on Thursday nights, and Chris Simms is sitting at 2–8 against Buffalo. Those numbers already tell the whole story. The last time the Bills faced Mills, they steamrolled him 44–0. Expect more of the same. Buffalo rolls in a decisive 31–17 win.

  16. It is NOT the coaches keeping Keon out of these games, it's Keon keeping himself out of these games. Let's put the blame where it belongs. Keon has to do better, there's no give me's in this game, the PLAYERS make of it what they get out of it.

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