Seattle Mariners re-sign Josh Naylor: Quick Analysis

Seattle Mariners re-sign Josh Naylor: Quick Analysis

Well, well, well, well. That was quick. And I’m not surprised. A little birdie told me that the Seattle Mariners were going to be incredibly aggressive in getting Josh Naylor done as soon as possible. And they did just that. Jeff Pan Passan Jeffy P reports that the Seahawks, Nope, not the Seahawks. I’ve had the Seahawks on the mine because I just recorded a video for them. devastating loss, but I’m feeling a lot better that the Seattle Mariners have resigned Josh Naylor to a five-year deal. I don’t know the financial terms. I’m just going to be flatout honest with you. I don’t care. I am not concerned at all about what John Stanton spends on things. It’s I’m concerned when he doesn’t spend stuff on things, but I I think he’ll be okay. And I think the Mariners will be okay because they are bringing back a guy who was awfully important for the Seattle Mariners. And I think, you know, Anders brought this up to me right after we stopped recording. Andrew Hurst, you know, my locked on Mariner compadre, my KJR compadre, just my compadre overall. He brought up a good point that I think it’s the message this sends. the message that this is important. The message that what happened in 202025, did I say too many 2020s? The whatever happened in 2025 wasn’t good enough. It’s not good enough. And also that hey, we believe that this is sustainable. We believe that we are on the precipice of creating something special. You came really close to being special last year. You came eight outs from it, but you didn’t do it. But you’d be taking a massive step backwards if you don’t bring back Josh Naylor. Let’s take a look at Josh Naylor’s numbers. I’m going to pull them up right now because I literally as soon as I stopped recording on locked on Seahawks, I started recording this one. So, I’m going to pull up what Josh Naylor did in 2025 and a little bit of what he did in the past as well. We talked a lot about this when they did the Josh Naylor trade, but hey, let’s go over some of it again. Josh Naylor is a former first ground first round pick. A fourth round pick. He was not forced to be drafted by anyone, but you know, a guy who came out of Canada, was considered one of the better offensive prospects in that draft and scuffled with the Padres’s. Well, first he gets traded from the Marlins to the Padres’s, Padres’s to the Guardians, Guardians to the Diamondbacks, Dimebacks to the Mariners. I think he’s gonna be happy that he’s not bouncing around a little bit. He has his home and it is Seattle Washington for at least six months. In his career, he’s a 269 329 447 hitter. That’s a 777 OPS. That is an OPS plus of 116. That’s not really indicative of what Josh Naylor has been since basically 2022. Actually, as a 771 OPS, so we’ll say it’s more the last three years. Over the last three years with the Guardians, with the Diamondbacks, and the Mariners, he has been a hitter who has hit .280, 341, 468. That’s an 809 OPS. It’s an OPS plus of 125. That’s 68 homers, 297 RBI if you’re into that thing. 46 stolen bases. We’ll talk about that in a second. And he was been worth 6.8 wins above replacement according to the good people of baseball reference. More importantly, let’s talk about what he did in 2025. In 93 games with the Guardians, he hit .292, 360, 447. That’s pretty good. 11 homers, 11 stolen bases. It wasn’t just Seattle where the stolen bases started happening. But then he gets traded to Seattle and he plays in 54 games, 210 played appearances. He hits 299, 341, 490. The slugging percentage goes up nearly 50 points, 43 to be exact. Nine homers, drives in those 33 runs and he steals 19 bases without getting caught. 11 walks, 34 strikeouts, gets hit twice. Um, let’s take a look at the Savant page before we just talk about we’ll just get it all out of the way. We’ll get it all out of the way, right? Josh Naylor expected batting average was in the 82nd percentile. He squares up the baseball 31.2% 2% time 31.2% of the time. He only strikes out in 13.7% of his plate appearances. Those are the obvious positives. Now, his expected slugging was in the 58th percentile. I think some of that has to do with the fact that I don’t know if he loved hitting in Arizona. And I think Josh Naylor might be a creature of comfort because he’s clearly comfortable in Seattle. We’ll talk about that in a second, of course. Um, average exit velocity of 89.2. only barrels the baseball 6.7% of the time. Hard hit percent percentage 41.9. I’m going to apologize for the dog snoring right now. Of course, she falls asleep. She’s just not interested in Josh Naylor’s advanced stats. Um Josh Naylor’s a good baseball player. Is he a great baseball player? I don’t think so. But you don’t need him to be a great baseball player. You have two objectively great baseball players in Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh. Now you supplement them with a very good maybe even very very good player in Josh Naylor and Ward doesn’t really tell his story. It first baseman get a tough rap just like designated hitters. I get it. I understand why people like to talk about um how they don’t add as much value, but you know, I gotta pause real quick because I’m also doing a fantasy draft for Lindy Sports right now. Totally forgotten what I was talking about. Probably something about Josh Naylor, but Josh Naylor doesn’t have to be a 900 OPS guy. He doesn’t have to be a guy who hits 40 homers. doesn’t have to be the type of guy who, you know, you think of as a 115, 120 RBI guy. He’s capable of doing that. Maybe 40 homers is asking a little bit too much, but he’s capable of being that type of player, but you don’t need him to be. Not even close. You need him to be basically what he gave you in 2025. And if he gives you that, Josh Naylor is going to help you a lot. Let me tell you the two, and they’re not negatives. They’re just two things that you have to point out with Josh Naylor. Number one, Josh Naylor is 28 years old. He will turn 29 on June 22nd. Happy early birthday, Josh. Um, there is a chance that this contract will not age well. There is a history of players that are of Josh Naylor’s build. And again, I’m not insulting the guy. Look at this body and tell me that I should insult anyone’s body. But there is a history that suggests that players of that build are not necessarily the players that have their contracts aged the best. The really fast guys and the really slow guys. And let’s just keep it 100. Josh Naylor, for all the stolen bases he has, is still one of the slowest players in baseball. He has a sprint speed of 24.4. Okay. However, I think it’s a little different with Naylor because I think this guy is a really hard worker. The body is what the body is. There’s no doubt that this guy works hard. There’s just simply no denying it. He has improved so much. Now, the other thing is the stolen bases, and it was a lot of fun. There were a couple of big base running mistakes Josh Naylor made um in situations that didn’t matter a ton. One of them a playoff game, so yeah, it mattered a little bit, but um I would be surprised if we see that again. But 15 to 20 stolen bases are with are well within reach because this guy reads pitchers so well. He’s such a smart baseball player. I would do anything to have a 15minute conversation with Josh Naylor. Anything. Because I would just love to pick his brain. He’s such a, you know, he’s standoffish, you know, when he’s a guy who doesn’t um show a ton of emotion at times and then a lot of emotion at others. It’s very fun. It’s a very fun experience with Josh Naylor. He’s also a good defensive player. We’ll see how well that ages as well. There’s a chance he’s a DH in a couple of years. But what matters the most is 2026. And what matters the most is that anything but getting to a World Series next year is going to be a massive disappointment for me. Your mileage may vary. You may feel completely different. I don’t care. All I care about is this team going to the World Series next year. It’s literally almost the only thing I care about. Family, God, um, not in that order. Sorry, family. um my health a little bit, but mostly the only thing I give a crap about, and I want to use a different word than crap, is getting to the World Series. Seeing that team play in the World Series for me and my grandma while we’re still here. So, that’s all I care about in the long term. Could this be a contract that is considered an albatross? Yeah. Do I care? No. Should you care? That’s totally up to you. But in my personal opinion, heavens no. Nope. Every team will have contracts that you say, “Oop, I don’t love that one.” I’m thrilled that Josh Naylor is going to play for the Mariners next year. I’m thrilled. And I hope they’re not done. I know they’re probably not done. I said that last year and they only made the one move. I don’t think that a first baseman is the only move the Mariners will make in 2026. For 2026, in 2025. Are you excited? Do you have any concerns? Are you just happy that Maya Y is doing stuff again? Do you love me? I hope you love me. Josh Naylor back in Seattle. And I I think it’s great. And I just got rid of that uh alien in the background at the very last second. Talk to you guys soon. Bye.

The Mariners re-signed Josh Naylor according to Jeff Passan of ESPN
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