Colts WILL put Nick, Chiefs to bed 😤 Bills don’t deserve 2nd-best odds in AFC, Nick’s Picks

Colts WILL put Nick, Chiefs to bed 😤 Bills don’t deserve 2nd-best odds in AFC, Nick’s Picks

The Texans dropped Josh and the Bills dropped to 5th in the AFC playoff picture at 7 and 4. But according to the oddsmakers, they’ve actually got the second-best odds to win the AFC. Colts, Broncos, and the Bills tied. Then the Chiefs, then the Patriots tied with the Chiefs, and then Bruce Ravens. As far as teams that we picked, if Greg Jennings was here, perfect strategy by us. Do the Bills deserve to have the 2nd best odds? No. Uh, I don’t. I do not think. That they are better than the Patriots, who they currently have better odds than, and I do not think they have, they are so far ahead of the Chiefs in securing the postseason that we can overlook the fact that I think it would be foolish for anyone. To say confidently, well, this will be, this is the Bills team that is going to beat Kansas City. Uh, to be clear, I do believe at some point, Josh will beat Patrick in the playoffs, and it could happen. And I, I’m not acting like it’d be crazy to say, because this isn’t the best Chiefs team ever, that it could, I’m not acting like it couldn’t happen this year, but it is, the Bills are still afforded a benefit of the doubt that, They have not, in my opinion, earned this year or in previous years. The Chiefs one is simple. They have gone, they go to the Super Bowl every year. That’s why they, they are, the, the 7 straight years they played to go to the Super Bowl, and 5 of the last 6, they’ve been there. And it’s not as if every year they’ve been 14 and 3. They, you know, 2 years ago, they had a legitimate down year. They won 11 games, they had to go on the road. Last year, they won a bunch of games, they looked ugly. And they still found themselves in the Super Bowl. Just LeBron in the East, right? And we’re gonna be there. And so the, and that is, so the Chiefs, you, even if you think this year it’s not going to apply, you understand why it exists. The Bills, you don’t. The Bills have been to two conference championship games. That’s the same as Cincinnati. That’s one more than Baltimore. It’s, you know, they, they aren’t perennially on super deep playoff runs. They aren’t having a great season. They don’t. There isn’t one thing, Brew, they do right now that you’re like that they’re the best in the league at that. And so, no, I don’t think they deserve the second best odds. I hear you. Look, I don’t think the Bills will win the the AFC. I don’t think they’re going to, but I think they, it is justifiable and here’s why. Look at that list. The, let’s just say the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots, all inexperienced quarterbacks. Daniel Jones has experience but not winning experience. Inexperienced quarterbacks who have shown us nothing in the playoffs. Now we’ve talked about Lamar’s struggles, Justin Herbert’s struggles in the playoffs. Maybe Drake may, he might struggle his first time in the playoffs. So I think you look at that and you say, OK, I can justify taking the Bills over them, or at least right there with them. And then you look at the two experienced teams outside of Buffalo, the Chiefs and the Ravens, and the Bills beat them this year. So I, I think it’s justifiable again, I don’t think they’ll win the AFC, but I think it’s justifiable on those terms. Neither Baltimore nor Kansas City looks good, and Bills, the Bills beat them. So can I, you, you mentioned something you mentioned and something you mentioned. Can I show. The Bills ranks this season because you mentioned they don’t do anything exceptionally well. They run the ball well. They’re 2nd in total yards. Um, I think they were 1st for a little while or maybe Indy always had that. But, what I would like to, Josh Allen’s getting sacked a lot, but keep you here for a second, guys. They have a terrible rushing defense. And I know I’m, I’m gonna sound like a broken record here, but take Daniel Jones’ chances he goes pumpkin mode if they matched up in the playoffs. Jonathan Taylor will not go pumpkin mode against the 30th ranked rushing defense, but you can stack the if Daniel Jones isn’t gonna beat you. He’s not gonna be that, he’s not gonna be that bad. He could. I don’t. I, I think this bodes well for the Ravens. I think it bodes well for the Patriots. They’ve already beat them. And I know it’s like, well, we don’t know what Drake May is gonna do. Maybe Drake May would totally melt down, but it would be shocking for everyone if Josh McDaniel’s game plan would put Drake May in a spot where he would melt down in the playoffs. I, so I agree with that. And right now, the, it would be Bills Colts in round one of the playoffs. Like that is what we, and I think that would be a, I think that’s the team they would least like to play. Yeah, the, uh, Kansas City maybe, but Kansas City, Indy would least like, no, that Buffalo would least like to play in round one. They could get blown out the, the, just because of the Jonathan Taylor. But again, I’d stack the box and make Jones beat me. And, but I mean, by the way, teams have tried to stack the box already this year against Jonathan Taylor to some degree, and they don’t have the 30th ring rush defense, and he still beats them, you know, I mean, Jonathan Taylor is having a spectacular season. I am. We are in, can we throw that playoff graphic up again because this is such. Uh, bordering on unprecedented situation, and it’s why I am so bullish on your team, KW, because what it feels like we have is. Super flawed teams with superstars at quarterback in Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore. And then, and then, you know what, just because Danny might be watching, throw the Chargers in there as well, even though he’s not a superstar, but flawed team, but veteran, you know, we, the, we, we love him quarterback. And then there are these teams whose quarterbacks are total unknowns or known negatives previously that we love the roster. And now include Houston in that, where again, we don’t see it’s not a known negative, but he hasn’t played well this year and wasn’t great last year. But the Broncos fit that bill. The Colts fit that bill. Sadly, the Jags might fit that bill. Houston fits that bill, and it’s why I think, and Pittsburgh’s in such a weird spot because the quarterback’s the most known quantity, but he’s old and the defense is supposed to be good, but it’s not. I don’t know what to do with them. I also, people don’t think they’re gonna be there. They think Baltimore will be there instead. It’s why you guys are scary, KW because you have, there, I have, if you were to tell me, hey, not Patrick, Josh, or Lamar, there’s gonna be a quarterback in the AFC go on a a heater. And it’s not gonna be one of the guys who’s done it before. My money would be on Drake. And, you know, because I, I think he has the most talent of any of those other guys, and I think you guys are, and you guys have the path and all of that. It, it, you, you don’t look at quarterback as a deficit like you do with Denver, like I do with Indy, like fools do with the Jags. Um, and Indy game, I wonder, and if Greg was here, he would be. More vocal, obviously because he would be here. But I wonder when we’re going to, are we stop talking about Daniel Jones being the weak link of that team. It could be this weekend, but the, the flip side is this weekend could cement that he definitively is. He has 7 turnovers in the last 2 games. They lost 1. The other one went to overtime against a flailing Atlanta team. If they go to Arrowhead and get beat by 10, and every Chiefs win this year has been by 10 plus, you know, then, and Daniel Jones has a couple of turnovers. Yes, that’s right. Oh, it’s time now for the hottest segment in all of sports. It’s upset alert and this one. Is gonna get nuts, so hold on to your hats. Let’s take a look at the standings, yeah, which for some reason are controversial. I don’t know why they’re controversial. Brew, good job with your week 11 pick. I keep getting the point, but yeah, I’m trying to win. KW not great. They lost by 18, I think. It’s OK. Coaching Greg a little unlucky. Team was down 5 with the ball in the 4th quarter. They end up punting. Is there any ruling on my Texans pick last night? I’m, you know what, I thought you might ask. So let’s consult the easy to read, easy to understand, upset alert rules, and what you’ll see on there is. His pictures are made on Friday. They’re about that weekend’s games. We were willing to make an exception for you yesterday. You wanted to double dip instead of just go with the Texans and take what would be 9 points right now. You said I was going to lose a point. I was at risk of losing. No, this is no. I gave you two. I gave you two options. One was make it your pick, and it’s your only pick. The other one was we would let you have the double where you could only get 1 point from it, but also if they didn’t win, you lost a point and you said no. You turned us down on both just felt like a bad deal. Well, just odds wise, if your poker brain does not think that’s a good deal. Let’s, this is the 2nd time he’s flouted the rules. I know or attempted to. It’s really the rules are flawed. OK, well then, why do we all agree? I’m an agent for change. That’s why. Uh, oh, we, since Greg’s not here, he still mailed in his upset alert. We went to the post office again and picked it up. OK, so read it to us. Here it is. Take it. Oh, it’s a video. We didn’t put it. You put it on video. It’s time. Yes, I’m going with the obvious. I’ve circled this week 12 for the last few weeks. I’ve been waiting for it to get here and it’s here. The Indianapolis Colts will upset, which is really not an upset, the Kansas City Chiefs. Why? It’s really easy. They’re a better team. The stats tell you and suggest it. I know we wanna say Patrick Mahomes, oh my gosh, coming off a loss against the Denver Broncos. They’re the defending AFC champs. Their backs are against the wall. They’re gonna come out with everything to salvage their season, to save their season. No one cares. No one cares. Indianapolis, coming off a bye week, extra time to prepare for the best team in the AFC. We shall see who’s the best team on Sunday because with extra time, Lou Annaummo against that offense, he’s been pretty good and against the spread, when the Kansas City Chiefs have been great in years past when favored by 5 or fewer, I mean, it was almost a guaranteed lock for them to win. Not the case this year, not the case this year. Why? Because they’re just not that good. And the Indianapolis Colts, who understand if we run the ball behind our offensive line and Jonathan Taylor and allow Daniel Jones to then get the ball to our playmakers, we have the ingredients to beat this team and Nick. Deal with it because it’s happening. The season is on the line. This week, the Kansas City Chiefs are gonna be put to sleep, Steph Curry style by Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts. Bet Means. Here’s the shame of it. Means spirit, to be honest with you. It, it was, but it also was one of the reasons coach and Greg, I feel, have done so well in upset alert, better than with respect to you guys in your upset alerts and better than me and Nick’s picks. is they have been take agnostic on their upset alerts. Like at times, I’m sure you guys have seen an upset alert you like, but you’re like, ah, but it’s not what I’m rooting for. Or it kind of contradicts what, you know, is kind of the narrative that I believe in. So I’ll pick at everyone. Coach and Greg have just been finding value. Did that feel like somebody that was out there finding value, or does that feel like somebody that was out there trying to great analysis of a take? You are right. And so I just think that’s a mistake. Like, for instance, not to spoil Knicks’ picks, you know what’s not in there? Chiefs minus 3.5. You know why? I don’t like the hook. I don’t like the. I don’t like the hook. I don’t like, I don’t like laying the hook. Go ahead, brew. Well, I am also with you in that this week’s pick for. For me is very much take agnostic. Good for you. I have to take back some takes because I got Baker and company upsetting the LA Rams. I don’t mind this at all. 7, 6.5 points. I had to go big game, honey. I do have the Eagles beating the Cowboys, but that was only 3.5 points a bonus. No, do your thing. Uh, you guys know I’m a big believer in due dates. I didn’t know that. Due dates. Wait, what do you mean? Like, like pregnancy you’re due. The Eagles are due for a loss. Yes, I, I didn’t know you were. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I do. I mean, he always says it is for a loss. I just didn’t know, like, how’s, how’s Brew? He’s like he loves due dates. The Rams are due for a loss. They’ve lost. They’ve won 5 straight. They almost, it almost happened last weekend. If, if Seattle had gotten any type of competent quarterback play from Sam Darnold, not for interceptions, they win, they lost by 2 points. Baker will give them competent quarterback play in Tampa Bay. They know our season is slipping away. Carolina, whether you believe in them. Or not they’re coming and so we have got to get back on the right track. I think Baker and Ibuca are great and I think Tampa Bay, they’re, yes, and they’re good on the road. They’re 4 and 2 on the road. We know LA doesn’t have a huge home field advantage anyway, so I got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning this. I like that that. Makes me very happy. It’s shocks me, but it makes me very. I told you it was shocked, you see that, but look at the bar. Oh, make me pay for flirting. Does it really? I didn’t you flirt. They sent me flowers. That had nothing to do with me. It had nothing to do with me. KW buckle up. It’s time for the Puckittany Phil, who has been hot and is back to make his upset alert. Why do they call you the Puckittany Phil of football? Because I’m covered in fur, living in a log, eat like this when I get, go to lunch. No, it’s because I can see the future. Gianna, you might wanna clip this off for everyone in Tennessee. No, KW Titans over the Seahawks. Hear me out. I know on the doors doorstep of an upset. OK, I know it’s an insane pick. Yes. Luckily, I’ve got some facts to back it up. I can’t wait. Number one, this is a life lesson too, bonus. You know what they say when you’re going through hell. Keep going. You’ll get, you’ll get through it. Maybe not the actual, you know what I mean? It means a tough time. Last 4 games that Cam Ward has played against the scoring defense. Patriots were 5th, he lost. Colts were 9th, he lost. Chargers were 11th, but the 4th-best passing defense, lost. Texans, he lost. Oh, Seattle, they’ve got the 6th-best scoring defense. I’ve been here before. My hands are calloused, but he’s lost all of them. Yeah. Do you think he’s gonna lose the whole season of them close? Yes. Oh, it’s a great question. I’m glad you asked. The Texans were close. The Texans were close, but they were using like, oh, that was my pick last week. And we just saw what, how the Texans treated Josh Allen. Would you be shocked if Josh Allen had a bounce back game? This one’s a little strange. Don’t get me wrong. This is just time’s leading. This is just minutes leading in the last 4 games. Hey, hey, get, getting better. Get, we, we’ve had the lead. That’s it. Getting better. That’s all we’re saying. We’re moving forward. And I know the mighty Seahawks, who everyone believes in. How, is there a path for Cam Ward to go head to head and win? There are. If this, if Sam Darnold and the Seahawks give you one, who leads the league in giveaways? The Seahawks. Get this stat, Nick, you’ll love this. 17% of their drives end in a turnover. What? That really 17.3. Are you sure that’s what it says, Josh. That’s, that sounds incredibly high. Exactly. I mean, that makes sense. If they have 20 turnovers, 17% is 1 in 6, so 120 drives on the year in that many games. That sounds, that, uh, that checks out, but that is a crazy high number. But you could see it happening. No, not against the Titans. The Titans are one of the worst teams I’ve ever seen. They have one win this year, and it was because the Cardinals forgot how to play football. The, the one time they beat a team. It was so traumatic for the other team’s coach. He assaulted one of his own players. Like that’s final thing. Oh, you have more. I got lots of stuff. Wow. What about JSN? Well, Titans have gone 8 straight games without allowing a 100 yard receiver. That’s good. So JSN is not necessarily gonna. The teams get up big and they don’t is what it is. They’re used to keeping guys under 100. And finally, Sam Darnold, there’s more. I’m, I, because this is a guy, this is an epic. You gotta remember he’s your guy. Maybe Sam Darnold cooks. That’s on the board. But don’t forget there is no middle ground with Sam Darnold. Sam Darnold in his last two seasons has 19 games in passer rating in the hundreds. That’s class, that’s old. Oh my gosh, this guy’s amazing. 0 in the 90s, 2 in the 80s, and 7 in 70s or worse. You’re not getting a mediocre game. Seattle’s on the road. All of a sudden, what’s going on? Cam Ward’s about to beat us. They’re feeling good. Like, wow, this team’s not better than the Texans. Why are we afraid? Who gets a little bit nervous? Sam Darnold. Is he gonna be in the 100s or is he gonna be down underneath the 70s all a little bit though. Did you believe a little bit more? I, so I like those Nashville. You got good. I don’t believe you at all, but those are great numbers. What do you mean you don’t believe? You don’t believe the numbers are great. It’s something I, I do not’s something. Time now for a hot, it’s got you believe in due dates. We’ve got to get hot. You’re gonna get hot. You are gonna get hot. You are due. We just go 1 and 2 every week. You’re gonna get hot. 14 and 19. It’s mortifying. I’m not gonna lie. There’s no excuses. Did I get a little unlucky on the Tampa pick? Sure. Did the Chiefs have an extra point in the 4th quarter to go up 4 and have me covering? Sure, but you know what? I was on the wrong side of those games. Last week I went with quarterbacks I totally believe in. And KW loved the pics. I won’t want him to. This week, KW I’m telling you that I believe in. I said that I believe in and you loved the pics. I, this week, I’m telling you right now, you’re gonna make guttural sounds when you see some of these pics. You’re gonna hate them so much. Just show them, dust. I don’t even wanna say what they are. Show the first one, first pick, going back to the well with Caleb, very simple logic. I think playing a 41 year old quarterback who has a broken wrist is a bad idea. I think Chicago at home laying less than a field goal in a game that’s either going to feature Mason Rudolph or a hobbled Aaron Rodgers or both of them because Rodgers gets knocked out of the game. I like the Bears. I think the Bears are. Better than the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m laying less than a field goal with the home team, with the healthier team, even though a bunch of linebackers are out. I’ll take Pittsburgh or I’ll take Chicago. These are the ones you’re not. We’re in a bad spot. He doesn’t even know who’s I know who I’m taking. He said Pittsburgh. I misspoke for a moment. He’s frazzled. I’m frazzled because I know how much I like this one. I like this one right away. All right, I don’t like that one. Show me the next one, please, rude. You’re rooting for it though. I know it’d be good for you. I’m taking the Cardinals plus 3. Here’s the thing, here’s the thing that I know, having rooted for the Jags for 5 years. Do you know what they typically follow up great performances with? Uh, how the hell did that happen? Do? And I also know that if you are Jacoby Brissett, fresh off your 47 completions, and now all of a sudden, you’re facing a Jags team that’s probably a little too fat and happy with its performance last week beating the Chargers 35 to 6 and you’re at home. I think the Cardinals win this game. I’m getting 3 points again. KW, I told you I really like Jacoby Brissett. I don’t know if he also has a string of excellent games. Well, again, I mean, they got blown out when he had completed 47 seconds again, guys, I’m, I’m. I don’t hate that. I’m flailing all day. I like this one. I like you. All right, guys. I really, I really appreciate the encouragement because I’m taking the Browns plus 3.5 in Shadors against your Raiders. So here’s the logic, and it’s very simple. I don’t hate that. I don’t hate that. I watched. That Cleveland Browns defensive line all year dominate people. I watched the Raiders’ offensive line make the Cowboys’ defensive line look like the purple people leaders. You like that, Bro? Uh, I just think that. The Browns’ defense might outscore the Raiders’ offense. Now, is it possible the Raiders’ defense also outscores the Raiders’ offense because Shador gives them some, maybe, but I’m getting more than a field goal in what will be a defensive battle and Shador has to know, just don’t turn the ball over. Let Miles Garrett, Miles Garrett, he is 8 sacks away from the single-season record. Also 8 sacks is the single game record. I’m putting it on the board. He gets them both in this game. I’ll take the Browns plus 3.5. I hate these. You don’t. You have completely abandoned Geno. I, I’ve abandoned the offensive line. Caleb and the Bears minus 2.5. Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals plus 3 against the Prince, and the Browns plus 3.5 against Geno and the Raiders. Just, I know you don’t want to do it, but just for me, if one of these. You could only bet on one of them. Be like, Nick, I need a lock. The Browns. The Browns are the lock of the week. It’s gonna be worth double. It’s gonna be worth double. Get you right back into it.

Nick Wright, Chris Broussard and Kevin Wildes discuss whether the Buffalo Bills deserve the second-best odds in the AFC or not, then unveil who is on Upset Alert in Week 12, including Greg Jennings’ message to Nick ahead of Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Nick then shares his best Week 12 picks.

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Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, and Kevin Wildes team up on First Things First. The trio offers their take on a bevy of sports stories alongside special guests from across the sports world.

Colts WILL put Nick, Chiefs to bed 😤 Bills don’t deserve 2nd-best odds in AFC, Nick’s Picks
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