The Matt Savoie for Ryan McLeod trade looks like a big win for the Buffalo Sabres

The Matt Savoie for Ryan McLeod trade looks like a big win for the Buffalo Sabres

As the Oilers head to Buffalo, a look back on what is probably Kevin Adams best trade as Sabres GM. Where do we stand on Ryan Mloud for Matthew Seavoy? Coming up here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. [Music] You’re Locked on Sabers, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabers, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. What is up everybody and welcome in to this Monday edition of the Locked on Sabers podcast. Thanks for making us your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcast. You can watch the show on YouTube. You can listen wherever you get your podcast. You could be a part of our lockdown sabers text club if you’re looking for breaking news alerts from practice from games, injuries, trades, all the above. Your reaction as well on the text club, your comments and questions. Join subtext.com/lockdowns is the place to sign up for that if you are looking for it. Sneaky Joe Debbiosi here on the Lockdowns podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, now the number one sports podcast network. Today’s episode is presented by FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app now by visiting FanDuel.com. Win $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Savers and Oilers. And we will get to the game. We will get to a very interesting decision which is that Colton Ellis is expected to start in goal again for the third time in the last four games. They are giving him some run here. Lindy Ruff is despite the fact that he has allowed four goals and five goals in his previous two starts, but yet Lindy is going back to him and I kind of like it. But we’ll get to that a little bit later on. What’s going on with the Oilers also on the docket today. But main subject matter for today that I’m really looking to dive into. I love revisiting a good trade. You don’t get a lot of them around here. We’ve had a couple. The biggest one that you had, not this last off seasonason, but the previous offseason was a deal that was struck between the Buffalo Sabres and the Edmonton Oilers. And as these two teams meet and both players are now in the lineup, as Matt Seavoy is now a regular in the Edmonton lineup, we can start to more properly look at the results of this trade for both sides and how it’s going. So, that’s coming up on today’s show. you want to get a comment in about that, feel free to reach out because I do think I said it in the intro here that I think this is the best trade that Kevin Adams has ever made. It it was pretty straightforward. Mloud to Buffalo, Tyler Tulio if you want it as well, which was basically a minor league throwin that I don’t think they had any intention on becoming an NHL player. and he didn’t really even play for Rochester last year. 30 games for Tulio who was a fifth round pick of Edmonton’s a years back and he got 30 games in one goal, six assists and he has moved on uh this year playing with the Tucson Road Runners uh in the Utah organization. So you uh don’t have to worry about him anymore. It’s Mloud for Seavoi is the trade and Sabres are into their second year of getting results and Edmonton just starting to get a look at Seavoi on a more consistent basis. So, as we look at this deal again, before I actually move do that, I was looking at the the um the trade history of Kevin Adams and it’s better than the Cousins for Norris steel, I think. No doubt right now. It’s better than Middle Stat for Bo Byum because even though Colorado has already punted on Middle, Bram has been a better player than what Middle showed, but he’s not great and he’s not everything you were hoping he would be. So, it’s not as good as that deal. Um, other deals you look back on, Jordan Greenway for a second round pick, like, eh, definitely not Beck Malenstein for a second round pick. And then when you go early on in Adams tenure, it’s a lot of selloff trades and those are kind of tough to compare. I mean Eel for Tuck Krebs Olland and a second round pick. Um that second round pick actually became Greenway. Like you would not put the Eel trade as his number one deal at all. You would not put Reinhardt for Devin Levi in the pick that becomes Yuri Koulique as number one. Um there’s really no Marcus Johansson for Eric Stalls. The first trade he ever makes, it’s this one. It’s getting Ryan Mloud, a good middle six, two-way center, penalty killer, can play in all situations, super fast, can give you some offense, great defensively. He’s everything the Sabres were hoping when they acquired him. You, it’s a home run. Home run. A guy they’ve already extended. They like four-year extension. $5 million per year is a solid deal. And it really was telling of how much they liked him in year number one. And you know, it’s been a good second year for Ryan Mloud. He’s being thrust into duties that he probably should not have to play. He’s been in there as the Sabres number one center in recent days because of Josh Norris’s injury and Yuri Koulique going through his blood clotting issue. Um there’s a lot, but so far in 18 games, Mloud is scoring four goals, five assists, nine points. That is a 41 point pace. And again, it’s not a superstar player, but if he’s going to be a guy for the Sabres that scores between 40 and 50 points on a yearly basis, that is a win. His faceoff percentage has come way down this year. You’d like that to go back up. In fact, it’s come down by 11%. So, faceoffs bit of an issue for Ryan Mloud. He’s never going to be the most physical player, but you kind of know what he is. And at 26 years old, um, I think you should have more and many more years of him being this level of player. Should see through the the length of that extension. Meanwhile, on the Edmonton side, Edmonton still trying to find out what they’ve got. Now, part of why they moved on from Mloud was not just the player. Remember, he was a healthy scratch for Edmonton in that Stanley Cup final, the first of which that they played the Florida Panthers. They had a very deep lineup, a very deep forward group, and somebody had to come out. And even though he had only missed one game that regular season, he did not play all the playoff games. He was a healthy scratch at the very, very end. And with a contract on the horizon and a team that’s paying Conor McDavid and is paying Leon Dry idol and was going to be paying Evan Bousard and big money deals all over the place, they did not have the room to throw another extension at a guy that was better than the role they had for him, which was a fourthline winger at many times in that final year in Edmonton. It’s part of why he only gets 12 goals and 30 points. He’s only playing 14 minutes a night. It’s they didn’t have room for him to play any higher in the lineup. So why pay him here? 1650 last year per night and$,755 per night this year. A more expanded role, more minutes. So Edmonton, part of their motivation was we can’t keep this guy anyway. We got to clear some room moneywise. They also get cheap labor. It’s why they wanted Matthew Seavoy. Top level prospect in the Sabres organization. One of them. He was a top 10 pick. I really liked the prospect. I remember referring to uh Danny Brriier as the comp that I always thought of for Seavoi just in terms of how he plays the game. He’s a lot smaller, 5’10”, 175 lbs. He’s got a really nice shot and he always seemed to me to be kind of a goal scorer even though he was playing from the middle of the ice and was smaller. Um the way he skated too always kind of reminded me of Briier. That has not come to fruition by the way at all. him being a Briier like player. Uh but it’s very early in his career and even with Briier remember it took years for him to uh get going. I mean the Coyotes waved him at one point. So um maybe that comparison ends up happening. I would probably bet against it at this point uh for sure. So they wanted cheap labor. They wanted a guy that could come up and develop young piece that could grow into their system because in a lot of these Stanley Cup contending teams sometimes it’s all deadline acquisitions. 30-year-old veterans, guys that are past their prime, you got to bring some youth to the equation. And when you look at this Edmonton lineup, like other guys in the lineup that are growing, really isn’t anybody. I mean, Zack Heyman is not that, Jack Rosavik is not that. Adam Henrique is the furthest thing from that. Um, they are littered with veterans. Um, the blue line even like Buchard is kind of grown into this great player. A couple years ago, he was maybe figuring it out. Um, it’s kind of it like players that are developing in the lineup. It’s just Seavoy and every team needs a guy or two like that. So, he is what Edmonton was looking for. Now, the problem is he’s not producing or even really showing a lot of signs that he’s turning into this home run threat up at the top of the lineup. And the Oilers are giving Seavoi every opportunity to be a standout player at the top of their lineup. He’s been playing a lot with Conor McDavid and even Leon Dry idol on the season when looking at his most common linemates uh Matt Seavoy. He has played the most minutes with Adam Henrique at 71 minutes and 16 seconds. This is all at five on five. Second, his second most common linemate this season is Conor McDavid. 7048. This guy is getting the opportunity to play with the best player in the world and the to get to play with the best player in the world a lot. If you go a little bit further down the list, then it’s Trent Frederick, then it’s Andrew Mapane, Isaac Howard, and then you get to Leandre Settle and Ryan Nent Hopkins who he’s played 34 and 30 minutes with those two. Not bad either, but McDavid is more of the point here. You’re getting chances with McDavid and it’s not really happening for you. And that would be an alarm bell for sure. So far on the year, 20 games played, two goals, three assists, five total points. The advanced numbers don’t look good. Goals above replacement. He’s in the 39th percentile for forwards in the NHL this season. Um he’s not playing on the number one power play unit. So they they’ve been putting Jack Rosovich, a player I really wanted before the season. Instead, so been on the second unit. He’s just not popping. And if I were Edmonton, I wouldn’t want to go too long just continue to plan with McDavid, continue to try to make this work, to make this happen. From the little that I’ve seen, and I’ll be interested to get a a more shift to shift look at Seavoy tonight, is I see him as a player that kind of gets lost in shifts where there he’ll go a whole shift without getting involved in either touching the puck or defensively. He’s certainly not going to do it physically, forcing turnovers on the for check. Like, it just kind of gets lost a little bit out there. So, young player, you know, it’s still possible that he turns into a great great player, but he’s done nothing. To put it frank, so far, 24 games for the Edmonton Oilers, Matsvoy’s done nothing at all. And I kind of can’t believe they’re still putting him on the top line. So, no doubt Brian Mloud’s a better player right now. And every game that passes that Seavoi at 22 years old, right, he’s about to be 22 years old. He’s 22 in January. So this is his age 22 season. Every game that passes where he’s not making an impact, I think it’s a little less and less likely that he’ll ever be as good of a player even as Ryan Mloud is. So Sabres won that trade. No doubt. Until further notice, that’s a win for Kevin Adams. And they took a lot of heat for it. I thought at the time they way overpaid for the player. I understood why they did it. I didn’t want to crush them for it. If you go back and listen to our episodes from when they made that deal. I could not have imagined it would go this well though. And it has gone as well as you could think. Win for the Sabres on that trade. When we come back, Colton Ellis getting a look for the Buffalo Sabres. Again, interesting goalie maneuvering here by Lindy Ruff. that when we come back here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. Today’s episode of Locked On Sabers is presented by Game Time tonight. You got a chance to go watch the best player in the world or just go watch your home hockey team. Hockeyy’s here. Nothing beats being in the arena for these opening games. Let’s be real, getting tickets can be a total headache, though. Whether you’re waiting in cues, surprise fees, prices that’ll jump right before checkout, easy to get frustrated when all you want to do is just cheer on your team. That’s where Game Time comes in. The app that gives fans the advantage. It’s your ultimate hack for scoring amazing NHL tickets easy and stressfree. 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What we’re looking for in tonight’s game. And we’re going to start in goal for the Buffalo Sabres because I was not thinking at all that the Sabres would be running out there with Colton Ellis between the pipes. But sure enough, it appears as though he is going to be the Buffalo Sabres goalender on the night. Had his own net at practice. Um so he’s getting the nod. It’s Steuart Skinner for Edmonton. Three out of the last four games are Ellis games. And I didn’t love the total 60-minute efforts in both Detroit and in Utah. I thought in Detroit there was a some questionable play I thought in the beginning of the game, but I thought he played really well in the third period to give the Sabres an opportunity to get back in it. In you against Utah, I thought he started really well and then finished really poorly in the third period. So, you’ve kind of had these up and down games. I think it’s part of though the Sabres are wanting to see him in a rhythm to get a better look. I think they see the potential. I think I see the potential. He’s got athleticism. He’s making great side to side saves. It’s just a little off at times. And that to me is something that is worth exploring. And I’m glad that they are really giving him a chance before making a decision on what they want to do in goal. And I think part of it’s got to be they like him enough. So if Ellis plays well tonight and he continues to be this much a part of the rotation, um then we’re going to have to really talk about Lukan in trades. The other thing that’s kind of happened here is that Alex Lion has suddenly fallen out of the rotation after being the guy. I mean, how polar opposite from October when Lion got the first six starts of the season and he has actually only started one of the last five, right? So, um not well actually, excuse me, he would have got two of the last five. No, it was one of the last five and they got pulled against Carolina early on. I’m mixing all the games up now, but he’s played very little for the Buffalo Sabres as of late. Um, no, he did play the whole uh Carolina game. So, I am confusing games, but whatever. It’s it’s Ellis. This is an Ellis Knight, and he’s getting a really tough challenge. I think the Sabres are wanting to get a look at him, and maybe there is a decision on the horizon, whether that is a Lucadin trade, whether that’s Ellis being waved. Um, that I feel like is not as likely right now because I do think he’s looking just good enough to where they shouldn’t want to do that. So, otherwise, Sabres lineup in this game, I kind of like the changes that Lindy Ruff is throwing around. Thompson back to center. Thompson back to center and he’s with Don and Tuck. A little bit more of a spread out lineup. I think Don going from the third line to the top line is warranted. Thought he was really strong in their last game. Mloud now will go down to the second line center and he’ll center Isac Roseanne and Jack Quinn taking Noah Osceland spot. And then Tyson Kak, Pton Krabs, Jordan Greenway checking line, defense line. And then Oscelin goes to the fourth line with Dunn Malenstein, which is kind of a it’s kind of a line that doesn’t make a ton of sense, but it’s kind of what you got left, throw it together, and it doesn’t have to not work. I mean, Oceland I’ve liked so far in uh this season for the Sabres. And Malenstein had done and have been giving them good shifts in recent games. So, that line could work, but it doesn’t really make a lot of sense on paper. Blue line, no Michael Kessler. And that’s tough because uh they were just about to get the look a look at the blue line totally healthy which has not happened yet this season. Castle ring goes out um still like the look of the blue line. Samson and Dene Power and Bryson Byum and Timonss is what you’re going to be looking at. And then really quick, not on tonight’s game, but injury updates that are positive. I was not waking up this morning thinking that Jason Zucker and Josh Norris were going to be returning to practice. Now they’re not going to play tonight, but they’re getting closer. And Lindy said Zucker could play this weekend. He’s got to put some weight back on, right? He’s got to get his legs back under him after dealing with that virus. So maybe we see Zucker this weekend. Sounds like Norris going to be a little bit longer. Maybe next week at some point. Maybe late next week is the the most likely outcome. Um but we’ll keep you updated on those two as the Sabres start to get a little bit healthier uh one by one here. So that’s what you’re looking at for tonight’s game. I feel pretty optimistic about the Sabres chances just having Dene back in the lineup. I think simply put why I would feel optimistic at all tonight is I think the Sabres are at their best when Taige Thompson is playing center. Just simply put, when Thompson’s playing center, I think their lineup is better. And the other reason is Edmonton is not the dominant power so far this year that you are accustomed to. Um this year so far they have a record of 97 and4. So they’ve lost 11 of their 20 games. They have a minus 8 goal differential at this point in time. They are not in a playoff spot. Um I can’t really tell you why that’s all happening, but the results are not there so far for McDavid and the Oilers. McDavid, of course, who signed a uh an extension, a two-year extension right before the season. If you look at some of their advanced numbers at five on five on the year in terms of shot attempts, um Edmonton’s 17th by percentage in the NHL. If you go on shots, they’re a little bit better. They have outshot teams 443 to 403. That’s ninth best in the National Hockey League. However, the goals are not coming. They’ve been outscored 50-36 at five on five on the year. And expected goals for percentage. Um, you got to scroll down to find Edmonton at. Where are they? Or did I pass them? Are they higher? Where is Edmonton? Uh, no. They are 23rd. How about that? 23rd in expected goals for percentage. The Sabres are uh at 20th on the year. So, actually better in that department. Special teams for Edmonton so far this year. Third best power play. That’s the one thing that is so solid about them is even when they might be having a down year at five on five, you just know their power play automatically with McDavid and Dry idol are always and Buchard are always going to be one of the best units in the league. It’s hard for them to ever miss the playoffs when you just lock in a top five power play unit every single year. Um, penalty kill, by the way, they haven’t been so bad either. They’re in ninth. So, you have the third best power play in the league this year in Edmonton going up against the best penalty kill in the league in Buffalo. So, little bit of a clash of the Titans there. Um, so that’s what you’re getting for tonight in the opponent Steuart Skinner starting in goal. I’m talking like I like Sabres money line for tonight and the Sabres are an underdog. Um, so I do I do like the Sabres money line, but I got to bet I like even more for tonight’s game. We’ll take a look at some of the lines when we return here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. All right, lines are coming up and uh when we do, we’ll be talking about FanDuel Sportsbook. Um FanDuel Sportsbook. If you go to FanDuel right now and check out the lines for tonight’s game between Buffalo and Edmonton, and maybe you’ll like someone to score a goal, maybe like a Ryan Mloud revenge goal in this game, and you want to take a look at that. There’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, special official sports betting partner of the NBA. You could do a parlay tonight where you got NBA action, Sabres action, and Monday Night Football action all in the same thing. Pick a couple of winners, put them all together. If you miss a start of a game or you want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel’s live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. Keeps every game more exciting, especially when your team is making that late push. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanuel.com, sign up, play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. All right, back here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast, we’ve got a look at tonight’s game from a betting perspective. The Sabres are an underdog going into this game, which is not too stunning. Edmonton minus 160 in this one. The Sabres at plus 132. The overunder is at 6 and a half goals. Minus 122 on the over. So an expectation of a lot of goals in this game. Under is even money at plus 100. I do kind of like the Sabres to win this game. Again, five on five numbers this year. Edmonton not so hot. Buffalo fine. Ellis in goal doesn’t scare me off. I like them with Thompson in the lineup. I don’t think Seavoy is a number one line player and they continue to try to make this work. Um so at plus 132 you’re the home team. I like the Sabres um so far this year at home and they are winning at home a little bit. Um 53 and two at home. Their bigger pro biggest problem has been more on the road. So I like the Sabres money line but that is not going to be my bet of the night. Now, our last game, we just went straight Sabres money line against the Red Wings. If you’re on our text club, then you got that alert. Plus 140. That cashed crazy comeback. Wasn’t looking good. We got there. So, now we are back up into the double digits in the plus category. Plus 10.8. Um, so if you had started with $10 on the year, you’d be at 108 right now. Uh, with our bets of the night for tonight’s game, I’m going with Josh Don. Josh Don playing on the number one line with Tae Thompson and with Alex Tuck. I’m going Josh Don three plus shots on goal and that is at plus 172. Here’s why I like it a lot. Don on the top line should get good minutes. He will play 16, 17, 18 minutes minimum. He might play more than that honestly. Playing on the top line. When Don is playing a lot of minutes, he’s getting a lot of shot attempts and he’s getting a lot of them through. In games where Josh Don has played at least 16 minutes this season. Four shots on goal on four attempts. Three shots on goal on five attempts. Four shots on four attempts. One shot on one attempt. Five on six attempts. One on seven. Four on six attempts. And three on three attempts. So in eight games where Josh Don has played 16 minutes a night, he has had at least three shots on goal in six of those eight games. And in one of them that he didn’t, he had one shot on seven attempts. He’s getting the chances. There’s really only one game in there, the the one game in the middle where he had one shot on a goal on one attempt where there was really never a chance. Every other game he’s playing minutes, he’s firing it at the net and he’s doing it from everywhere. He’s a he’s a shooter Dome and he’s maybe always going to be one of these guys that, you know, he scores goals and his shot percentage isn’t that high because he does take so many shots. Um, but that’s good for props, right? It’s good for shooting props. So, three plus. I get it way in the plus money at plus 172. It’s basically a bet on Don’s going to play a lot of minutes because as you again, as that lays out, he plays a lot of minutes. He’s probably going to cash that bet. So, I like Josh Dome. Three plus shots plus 172 over at FanDuel Sportsbook. Again, check out that promo you get if you’re a first time um at FanDuel. New customers, $300 of bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, anything else you’re looking at for tonight? I was curious to see that Matt Seavoy and Ryan Mloud were almost identical in terms of anytime goal bet. Mloud at plus 330, Seavoy at plus 350. And when I first saw that, I thought I Mloud is such a better bet than Seavoi to score a goal tonight. But when Seavoy is playing with McDavid, it is tough to just automatically say that, right? Because I mean with MC McDavid has six assists in a night and he has a game like that and how do you how do you not think Seavoy gets at least one? So um anytime goal bats, you know, I would go Mloud over Seavoy, but might want to steer clear of both of them. I think the revenge game factor is kind of baked in to both numbers at plus 330 and plus 350. And I honestly would rather not go with either one of them if I were you. All right, that’s going to do it for us today here on the Locked On Sabers podcast. If you are looking for uh more hockey talk, be sure to check out Locked on NHL game night, they are available wherever you get your podcast. So be sure to check them out on YouTube as well. And we will talk to you tomorrow here in the Lockdown Savers podcast. After Savers and Oilers, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. [Music]

The Buffalo Sabres and Edmonton Oilers made a big trade last year in which Ryan McLeod was sent to Buffalo for Matthew Savoie, who has not done much in 24 games with the Oilers so far. A look at what has happened so far shows the Sabres are getting everything they wanted when they acquired McLeod, and the Oilers are trying everything to get something out of Savoie, including playing him a lot with Connor McDavid.

Is Savoie ever going to become an impact NHL player? Some of the numbers show he’s not flashing that type of potential yet. Plus, Colten Ellis is getting a third start in the Sabres last four games. Is Lindy Ruff trying to get the most information possible before deciding on a roster move at goalie?

And why the Sabres lineup looks at it’s best with Tage Thompson at center.
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