Panthers vs 49ers Picks – NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Panthers vs 49ers Picks – NFL Week 12 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the Swiss. Uh, we’re still in week 12 here. We’re on to Monday Night Football. Having a nice Sunday right now. I’m actually recording this a bit earlier than I normally do. So, I’m actually recording this. Cowboys Browns are still going on. If I get one of these two, I’ve clinched a profitable day and the Browns are up 21 with it’s in the fourth quarter. They’re up three touchdowns. So, yeah, had a nice Sunday. I did bet this game, this Monday Night Football game. I I did place a bet on it. I got a good number, though. So, Panthers, 49ers, and San Francisco. Let’s talk about it. I mean, is Cooper Russ 2 and a half points? I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they had the one good game against Kansas at home. When toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some earth is flat [ __ ] Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very ugly. Dog buzzaw. like this is going to be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, Carolina’s on the road in San Francisco. Uh last week we got our first look at the fully well not fully healthy, kind of fully healthy. Iayuk is still out, but based on what what’s been coming out the last couple weeks, it doesn’t look like I It looks like I may have played his last game as a 49er. That’s speculation. There’s just some stuff coming out. Anyway, we got our first look at a fully healthy 49ers offense minus Iuke last week. Brock Perie was back. Ben Bart was back, the left guard. Ricky Piolaw was back. So, this is the healthiest the 49ers offense had been all year. And it was a success. Offense looked great. Final score was 4122 on the road in Arizona. And it’s not just the last game. This 49ers offense has been clicking the last few games, even even before Brock Birdie came back. If you look at the San Francisco offensive numbers from their last three games, this includes two M. Jones games, they’re averaging 33.7 points per game, 6.4 yards per play, over 57% success rate. So, this 49ers offense seems to be peaking right now. And like I said, they’re also healthier. So, based on the full season numbers here, you got the 49ers offense matched up against the Panthers defense. If you look at the full season numbers, it looks like a close matchup. 49ers are third in success rate, ninth in PPA per play. Panthers defense eighth and 24th. So, it looks like a close matchup based on the full season numbers, but it’s really not. I mean, San Francisco, like I said, their offense seems to be peaking right now. And the Carolina defense seems to be doing the exact opposite of that. I mean, you look at their last four games, 6 1/2 yards per play allowed. 51% success rate is definitely not good. They’re allowing over 24 points per game. You compare that to the previous three games. They had that little stretch there against the Dolphins, the Cowboys, and the Jets. They’re allowing just 19 points per game. success rate was down close to 39%, 5.3 yards per play. So, Carolina’s defense was looking strong there for a little stretch, but last four games they seem to be crashing back down to earth. And on top of that, they’re missing both of their inside linebackers. This is crazy. I mean, this is two of their leading tacklers. These are the guys that are supposed to be tracking and tackling Christian McCaffrey in the open field. Trevan Wallace and Christian Roseboom, both been ruled out. Those are two of their main tacklers in the middle of the field. So, uh, even though you look at the full season numbers, it kind of looks like an even matchup here between the 49ers offense and the Panthers defense. I don’t think it is. At home, the weather’s supposed to be fine. I mean, we just saw this Panthers defense struggling to disrupt Tyler Shuck. Now, Tyler Shuck, that Saints offense had looked terrible. He just set the Saints the Saints franchise record, 282 passing yards in the game. That’s most uh that’s the most ever by a rookie quarterback in Saints franchise history. a 1289 pass rating in the game. So, if Carolina’s struggling to disrupt Tyler Shuck and the Saints offense with that battered offensive line, how are they supposed to go on the road to San Francisco and disrupt Kyle Shanahan’s offense with a healthy Brock party? Keep in mind, Brock Party’s always had nicel looking splits when given a clean pocket. I mean, that hasn’t changed this year. Obviously, we’re not dealing with a huge sample size when it comes to these numbers here, a 1245 passer rating when given a clean pocket. But, like I said, he always has nice splits when given a clean pocket. So, if Carolina was struggling to disrupt Tyler Shuck, how is he supposed to stop this 49? How are they supposed to stop this 49ers offense on the road in San Francisco? Like I said, the weather’s supposed to be fine here. Supposed to be perfect football weather, mid-40s, nice night in San Francisco. Not too windy. I don’t see any reason the 49ers offense doesn’t have a successful game here. So, I think we’ll see San Francisco moving the ball pretty fluently in this one. The question comes on the other side of the ball. Can we trust the 49ers defense to make stops? Because these are some ugly looking numbers here. 49ers on the year, 30th in success rate, 25th in EPA per play. The Panthers offense has certainly had its ups and downs. They’re 15th and 25th. Carolina’s missing a couple starters on the offensive line, but this isn’t really a reason to panic here. Robert Hunt’s been out all year. I don’t think he’s taken a sing I don’t think he’s seen a single snap this season, so that’s not new. and Cade Mazize. He has been starting at center, but they also have Austin Corbett, who actually was supposed to be the starter at center coming into the year, but he dealt with some injuries and I think lost his starting job. I actually think Austin Corbett’s been starting at guard if I’m not mistaken. So, Carolina’s pretty deep here on the offensive line. I don’t think this is much of a deal breakaker missing these these two pieces. And I mean, when we’re talking injuries, we got to flip it over to the other side. Obviously, San Francisco missing Fred Warner, Nick Bosa. That’s not new. They’re out for the season. and they’ve been out for the season, but they just lost another linebacker, Bthoon. He’s actually second on the team in tackles. So, in addition to missing Fred Warner, they just lost another that that just happened, by the way, in the Arizona game. They just lost another one of their main linebackers. This is actually a pretty interesting matchup on this side of the ball. Check this out. So, what have the 49ers struggled with this year? I’m sure you’ve heard people talking about it. San Francisco has struggled to generate pressure. They really need Bosa back. Uh they’re one of the worst pass rushers in the NFL. Now, they do have Bryce Huffback who was injured, but this is still a bottom five pass rush. So, that’s what we know San Francisco struggles with. They can’t generate pressure. We know Bryce Young is most likely going to have clean pockets to throw from in this game. What makes this matchup interesting is Bryce Young does not have efficient numbers throwing the ball from a clean pocket. An 865 passer rating. That’s not good. He actually has his pass rating when pressured is almost the same. A lot of Bryce Young’s big throws this year have come when scrambling. So, I don’t know if Bryce Young’s necessarily the quarterback to exploit a bad pass rush. And on top of that, it gets even more interesting. Want to know what the 49ers defense does a ton of? They run a lot of cover three. Bryce Young cover three is not a friend of Bryce Young’s on the season. He’s 63 of 100, 680 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, a 738 passer rating. He’s one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL against cover three. He’s taken 10 sacks. He’s indecisive. Puts the ball in harm’s way. So I look, he’s probably gonna have clean pockets to throw from in this game because the 49ers can’t generate pressure. Do you trust Bryce Young on the road in San Francisco to pick apart this cover three? It’s an interesting question. Now, we know Carolina is not trying to go on the road to San Francisco and drop Bryce Young back to pass 40 times in this game. They’re not trying to get in a pass happy shootout with Bryce Young against Brock Birdie against Kyle Shanahan’s offense on the road in San Francisco. That’s not the football game that the Carolina Panthers want to play. We know Carolina’s going to try to run the ball in this game and 49ers the 49ers defense has struggled a little bit with the run. So, I’m sure they’ll have some success on the ground, but remember when the Panthers are just carving it up with with Rico Dowel, 200 rushing yards per game. That seems to be a thing of the past. I mean, in the last five games, they’re averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Success rate per rush down at 34%. That’s terrible. So that physical downhill rushing attack we were seeing from the Panthers earlier in the year. I mean rewind back a month, month and a half hasn’t really been there. Again, San Francisco, they’re missing linebackers. They have struggled against the run. So I do think the Panthers are able to move the chains on the ground. But the question is, can they keep up? Because I think the 49ers can have a big game offensively. Uh so when it comes to betting this game, I personally don’t think the Panthers can keep up. I’m on San Francisco, but it’s kind of a moot point. I got in early. I’m on minus 6 and 1/2. So, I’m on a great number in this one. At the current number, if you can get a seven, maybe I’d still do it at 7 and a half. I think it’s a pass. Uh, my pick would still be San Francisco. I wouldn’t take the Panthers at 7 and a half, but crossing over a key number. So, yeah, I’m on San Francisco. I also don’t hate an over. I think the 49ers can get north of 35 in this game. So, yeah, San Francisco – 6 and a half is what I’m on. My pick at the current number would be San Francisco – 7 and a half and over.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdown and picks for the Week 12 Monday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers.

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