Lindy Ruff treating Colten Ellis like his #1 goalie going into must-win vs. Calgary

Lindy Ruff treating Colten Ellis like his #1 goalie going into must-win vs. Calgary

a must-win. The Sabres play the worst team in the NHL. We’ll get to it. And the Sabres have, I think, a new starting goalie. That’s coming up here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. [Music] You’re Locked on Sabres, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What is up everybody? Welcome in to this Wednesday edition of the Locked on Sabers podcast. Thanks for tuning in here on a game day. We are free and available wherever you listen to your podcast. You can watch the show on YouTube. Be sure to hit the like and subscribe button and you of course can always be a part of our Locked On Savers text club. You want to get some updates on practice, starting goalies throughout the game, scores, you want to ask a comment or a question, you can do that. Joins subtext.com/lockedonsabers. Sneaky Jody biosi on a game day part of the lockdown podcast network. Now the number one sports podcast network. And today’s episode is presented by FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app right now. Visit FanDuel.com. Win $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Sabres and Flames on Wednesday night at Key Bank Center. We will get into all that comes with this matchup, including the fact the Sabres, I believe, have a number one goalie, or at least they are treating him as such. Colton Ellis is going to be between the pipes yet again. And again, Lindy Ruff, how do you act when you have a number one go or a guy that you trust more than your other options? You play him four out of every five starts. Well, Colt Nellis has played four out of the last five games if you include his game coming up here against the Flames. It is expected that he will be between the pipes. While not official yet when he’s in the starting crease at practice, you know, 99.9% of the time that’s going to be the guy that gets the game. I’ll tell you why I believe tonight is a must-win and why the Flames are truly confusing to me. On paper, you look at this game and you say this has to be a win. a must win. There is no excuse for the worst team in the league, 32nd, Calgary, by a good margin, too. Coming into your building, they’re on the road. Cross country trip for them. They played the night before last night, a loss to Chicago. Gave up three in the third period. They end up falling. So, they’re on a backto back. Chicago to Buffalo, by the way, is not the quickest trip. It’s not Buffalo to Toronto or whatever. So, Chicago last night and you get their backup goalie tonight, Devin Culie. So, when I just lay it out like that, worst team in the league on the road, played last night, backup goalie, you cannot lose when you have those four things all going for you. You just simply cannot. However, the Flames, as I mentioned, are a truly confusing team to me. The little bit that I’ve seen of them this year that I’ve watched, they don’t look impressive at all. There is nobody on that team that I would say strikes me as, man, I really wish I had a guy like that. Nazam Kadri is still a pretty useful player. He’s 35 years old. Um, he’s probably not even having the season that you would that he would expect. Beyond that, like you look at their top scorers on the year, Nasam Codri, Michael Backland, Morgan Frost, Matthew Coronado, and Jonathan Hubedo. All those guys are either one past their prime or two, not that high level of a player. Coronado, Frost would be that I remember talking about wanting Frost for the Sabres is like a third line center. He’s second on the team in scoring so far this year. Um, the blue line, I have really liked Rasmus Anderson at times in the past. Maybe he’s not the same player that he once was. Um, McKenzie Weaguer definitely not playing at the same level that he has in the past. Like him too, but you’re not getting results from any of these guys. Dustin Wolf, he won’t play tonight against the Sabres. It’ll be Devin Culie. Dustin Wolf been one of the worst starting goalies in the NHL so far this season. a young guy. They threw him in. He leads the NHL in games played in minutes, but also he has the most losses. He has the most goals allowed. So, that’s not even working. The young stud goalie that they were hoping would be the number one for a really long time. Nothing looks impressive in Calgary. And yet, I go to look up, as I normally do, what do their stats look like as a team on the season? What is the story of Calgary by the numbers as we go into this game? And I’m fully expecting them to be dead last and everything. Bad team scoring, bad team in stopping goals, goalending, power play, penalty kill. I expected it all to be horrible. And then to my surprise, I was stunned to go look at what the numbers are and see the Flames are maybe way worse than they should be. And again, I would not make that defense of them just by looking at their team, by looking at their lines, by looking at their roster. There’s not a lot on that roster that I’d like. I mean, if they’re going to blow it up and they want to pick it apart, Kadri at 35 years old, you know, middle six guy. Um, toughness and grit and scoring and defense and attitude, right? Like I versatility, center wing, you know, I’d like that guy on my team. I’ve liked the idea of Anderson and Weaguer in the past. Like, we could pick it apart, but I just wouldn’t look at their team and look say, “Oh, that should be a top 10 team in the league.” the numbers on them. Corsy4 percentage percentage of shot attempts that they get compared to their opponent. Fourth best in the National Hockey League. Fourth best. How is that possible? How are they third in the league in shot attempts at five on five so far this year? These are all going to be five on five numbers. How are they in shot share sixth? How is that possible? How are they third in the NHL in shots generated so far this year? And in terms of shots against, they are 14th best. That’s not bad either. How is that possible? How is it that their expected goals for percentage, which typically is something that could kind of include everything and try to put it into one number? Why are they sixth best? How are they sixth best? Colorado’s number one, Washington two, Carolina three, Tampa four. These are good teams. How is Calgary this high? It doesn’t make any sense to me at all because they’re dead last and they are by a good margin. I mean, when you look at their goals for all of those numbers are meaningless when you’re not getting the results. They’ve been outscored 40 to 32 so far this year at five on five. That’s fourth worst in the NHL. So, the expected numbers look good. They’re generating shots. They’re generating shot attempts, but it’s not going to the back of the net. That could be a talent problem. That could be, hey, the system’s good. The effort’s good. The guys are getting into their opportunities, but the puck’s not going in the net. That could be talent. Could be talent. And their lineup looks like a team that that could be true of still. Does that explain all of it being dead last? Well, no. Surely, surely there must be some bad special teams numbers. And there are. That was the one area where, okay, power play. They are dead last and uh not by a wide margin, but they are dead last. 32nd in the NHL, 12.7% for comparison. We watch the Sabres power play on a night innight basis. And I don’t think many Sabre fans are impressed by the the Buffalo power play unit. The Sabres power play unit is almost 5% more efficient, is 5% better on the year than Calgary’s is. So as bad as you think the Sabres are, Calgary’s worse, and they are by a good margin. So that’s a big problem. penalty kill. They’re not as bad. 19th in the NHL, that’s fine. You can get away with that. Um 18th in the NHL, excuse me, but not like they’re great at that either. The other part is the goalending. And we’ll get to this on hey, it’s a backup goalie tonight. Well, is that a good thing? Because Matthew Wolf’s been terrible all year long and has maybe, you know, started to make Calgary fans think that he’s not the guy going forward. Save percentage on the year as a team. While he’s one of the worst in the league, they are 13th in the NHL in save percentage. And a big reason for that, even though it’s only a few games, it’s only five games played and 239 minutes out of 1,200. Devin Culie has actually been very good so far. Former Saber prospect, Rochester American. He was traded a seventh round pick the Sabres got for him from San Jose a couple of years ago. He wasn’t really a part of the rotation. Levi had jumped him and he wasn’t a very highly thought of prospect in the first place. I mean, he’s 28 years old even now and he’s only played 11 games in the NHL. Six two years ago for San Jose, five this year for Calgary. So, he’s never really been an NHL goalie. But hey, in those five games, 935 save percentage given them some results. So, I don’t know. Is it a good thing that Kulie is starting? He’s not a goalie that terrifies me. While he’s got some good numbers, it’s only five games. It’s only three starts and I would say that I shouldn’t you shouldn’t be too afraid of a guy that has barely played in the NHL. And I’ll even say this because what you might say is well isn’t that Colton Ellis? Sure. Ellis though three years younger is a big deal. I think when you make the NHL at 25 years old as a little bit more of a highly thought of prospect prospect like Colton Ellis was there’s potential there. you are open. I’m open to that being a starting level goalie. When you’re 28 and you weren’t highly thought of before you made the NHL, passed over time and time again and then you start to crack it. Like that’s when I started think that might not be real. So maybe they’re not super different, but I do think it’s a little different. Maybe even a good amount different between the two. So Ellis tonight for Buffalo, for Calgary. So at the end of the day, what do I expect? Because man, they’re not getting results, but they got some good underlying numbers. I want to trust in this case the real results and say it’s not always so black and white that the team with a good expected goals for number is a good hockey team. Sometimes you’re a team that’s really good trying hard and you know playing the game you know minuteto minute shift to shift but you just don’t have the talent to score goals. that happens and that’s why you get them scoring below expectation. Um they’ve scored 20 goals below expectation this season. That’s not a that’s not totally a lux stat. I think that’s a talent stat as much as it is a lux stat. So I expect the Sabres to win this game tonight and I think they absolutely should. They and really more than any of this like we could debate until we’re blue in the face are the Flames as bad as their record. They’re playing the second of a backto-back. You play a team that’s maybe not that good on a second of a backto-back, you should win that game every time, especially when you’re at home. All right, when we come back, Coltton Ellis back between the pipes, what we know about the Sabres lineup for tonight, and then we get to my bet of the night. All ahead here in the Lockdown Sabres podcast. Today’s episode of Locked On Sabres, presented by Rugette. Let’s be real, making excuses doesn’t solve anything. You’ve heard it before. or it’s just stress, you’re tired, or it happens to everybody sometimes. But when it comes to performance, sometimes your body just needs a little extra support. That’s where Rugette comes in. Ruggiette.com offers fast acting doctor prescribed treatments for ED designed to help you stop making excuses and start making moves. Rugiet makes uh gets you started. You just connect with a board-certified doctor, 100% online, no awkward waiting rooms, no inerson appointments if prescribed. Your treatment ships dreetly to your door and the process fast, simple, and private. It’s all handled by real doctors about confidence, connection, and getting back to the moments that matter. Visit rugat.com/lockton NHL. Ruggie T. Get your 15% off your first order. rugat.com/lockdown NHL. Don’t forget to use our code lockdown. NHL so they know that we sent you. Rugiet. Stop making excuses. Start making moves. All right, back here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. It’s game night, Sabres and Flames coming your way at Key Bank Center a little bit later on. Thanks for making us your first listen, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your number one sports podcast network. The Buffalo Sabres are going back with Colton Ellis. I am not surprised by this decision. I thought that Ellis would get the nod for the Sabres. So far this year, he has been fairly strong. 914 save percentage on the year is a very good number. Um, and when you look at some of the total numbers, uh, 1.87 goals saved above expected so far this year, that is good. That is 40th in the NHL out of 73. So, it is actually about middle of the pack, although it’s not really a fair number because that’s the total. If I were to do it by 60 minutes, you know, per amount you play, then a little higher. 35th out of 73. So, slightly above average so far this year in all of his games for Colton Ellis. Um, and he’s been the best of the Saber goalies. Um, or actually right around Alex Lion. He’s definitely been better than UPPL. So, another game for him. You’re gathering more information and you’re getting him in a rhythm, right? Um, I’m very supportive of this move and this idea to continue to play him and play him as the number one. Give Lion already got his opportunity. What that what does that look like as a number one? You’re in the lineup almost every game. And that looked really good. I think you could trust Lion if he has to get into a rhythm. Ellis, you’re not as sure. Let’s get that information. Putting him in four out of five, what does it look like? You know what the answer is for UPL? The answer for UPPL is it’s going to be inconsistent. If you are playing him two out of three, every three, four out of every five, you have no idea what you’re going to get on a nighttoight basis. That’s been UPL’s entire career, basically. So, if Ellis pulls through this stretch and looks like a number one goalie, I’m just going to continue to say it. They got to find a move for UPL. They got to find a way to move that contract off your roster. Give somebody a a late round pick if you have to just to clear the cap space. and you know, ideally do something with it, but we know with this team that’s not always the case. So, I like that Ellis is going back between the pipes and uh I hope that he continues. I mean, if he does continue, that means it’s probably going pretty well. So, otherwise, the lineup is the same. Don stays with Thompson and Tuck. Roseanne stays with Mloud and Quinn. Uh Oseland on the fourth line. Nobody’s yet ready to return. We’re getting closer on Zucker. We’re getting closer on Josh Norris. Also, we had a little bit of an update today on Zack Benson, who was seen in a walking boot in uh recent days. He was on the ice today rejoining the team for practice and Lindy said it shouldn’t be long for him to return to game action. Uh and also that Zucker would be available on Friday. So Zucker, Benson, bet you they’re both playing by the weekend and then probably another week and then maybe you’ll see Josh Norris back on the ice when we return. Bet of the night. We did lose our last bet of the night. Don did not get three shots on goal. But I got a good one for you tonight here on the Lockdown Savers podcast. When we look at some of the betting lines, they’ll be at FanDuel. FanDuel sports book. The NHL’s back. The NBA is back. No better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of a game or you want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel’s live bets on everything from who’s going to score next to those third period comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout for tonight’s game. Stay tuned. I got a good one for tonight. Or maybe you want to look yourself on maybe you like someone to score a hat-tick in this game. You know, you’re just let’s take a shot. He sacked Roseanne to score a hat-tick. You want to just throw that in and um bet 10 to win 1500. You could do that or you could throw it on uh throw it on anybody really. So, FanDuel.com right now. New customers get $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com, sign up, and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. All right, back here on the Locked On Sabres podcast, the Sabres and the Flames tonight. And my bet of the night is going to go right in line with the expectation that I’ve been talking about for this game, which is this has got to be a win. You can’t You’re trying to make the playoffs. You’re trying to stay in a race or even get back in a race. Back-to-back game against the worst team in the league playing with their backup goalender. I know there’s more to it and we went through that. You got to win that hockey game. You got to win that hockey game. I think they will win this hockey game. I’ve liked what they’ve looked like in each of these previous two games. Edmonton was their best game of the year and I think they do look rejuvenated with Rasmus Dalene back in the lineup. Having their captain, having their star player, I think is critical. I mean, his impact on the ice obviously beyond just what it helps his teammates with. Um, so I think they’re going to win this game and I do think the line is too low. Minus 162 for the Sabres to win, plus 134 for Calgary. I don’t think it should be that close. Now, I’m going to juice it up and go for the money. Go for the puck line. Minus one and a half goals. I’m going to bet the Sabres to win by two or more goals in this game. So, maybe you get the empty neter. Um or I think really I just think they’re going to win by two or more goals straight up. I don’t think they’ll need the empty netters. Plus 148. You get that bet into plus money. And that’s going to be my bet of the night uh for tonight’s game. Overunder is 6 and a half goals. Plus 108 is on the over. Minus 130 on the under. I would probably steer clear of the overunder in this game. Although in part because I do like the under, but I don’t want to pay 130 for it. Uh minus 130 anytime. Goal bets if you’re looking around for that. Isak Roseanne is is up there. He’s the fourth Saber. I mean, by the odds, Rosanne the fourth likeliest Saber to score a goal tonight. That’s some respect, but he’s looked good. And he’s getting power play minutes, too, which obviously helps for that as well. the Oseland goal bats. Remember I had that as one of my bets of the night a week ago. It didn’t hit, but Osen was like plus 700 to score a goal and I said if he keeps playing that’s gonna change. Uh it has. He’s plus 350 now. So you’re only getting half on an Osceland goal that you would have been before. And that’s with him centering the fourth line by the way. Again, part of it is he’s on the number one power play unit. But how about your fourth line center being plus 350 to score a goal? If I were to go with a gold bat in this one, I would probably go with, man, I really like Josh Dunn lately, but score little tougher. Um, I would probably go with Josh Dome plus 250 playing on the top line. Give me the best bet of the topline players that I could get. He gets number one power play as well. Uh, he’d be the guy I would go with. Um, anything else? Goalie props for tonight’s game. game. They’re not actually up yet, so we don’t need to tell you that. So, Sabres are favored and I expect them to win by two or more goals. Plus, minus one and a half at plus 148. That is our bet of the night. And that’s going to do it for us. Enjoy the game. Reminder, it’s a 7, not even 7:30, it’s a 740 puck drop tonight. Crazy crazy late. Um, so enjoy the game. We will talk tomorrow. Hopefully after a Sabres win and after a if we could talk about a three-game win streak, that would be ideal. If the Sabres were to win tonight, the best it could look like, it could be two points out. Other teams play tonight, but if they win and some other teams around the league lose, they’re currently four back of Tampa for a playoff spot. You win and suddenly you’re two points back. you get to even Toronto and Washington and it could be looking a lot better. Calgary by the way they are 10 points out already. All right, that’s going to do it for us today here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. We’ll talk tomorrow. Be sure to check out Lockdown NHL game night every game all season long till a champion is crowned. That’s available wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube. Talk to you on Thursday here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

The Buffalo Sabres have been searching for a #1 goalie since Ryan Miller was traded over a decade ago. Is it possible they have one in Colten Ellis? Lindy Ruff is presently treating Ellis like a #1, as he gets his fourth start in five games against the Calgary Flames. The matchup with Calgary is a must-win, as the Sabres get the worst team in the NHL, at home, against a backup goalie, with Calgary on the second of a back to back. Cannot lose.

Sneaky Joe previews the matchup against the Flames, who have way better underlying numbers then you would expect for the worst team in the league. Why have the Flames been so bad this year?

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