Shota Imanaga’s return may LIMIT big moves for Chicago Cubs

Shota Imanaga’s return may LIMIT big moves for Chicago Cubs

Shoda accepted the qualifying offer. What does it mean? You are Locked On Cubs, your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. You are Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On Network, now the number one sports podcast network. We are your team every day. alongside Samber. I’m Matt Cozy. Sam and I are lifelong fans taking our passion into a discussion with you. Man, it took me a while on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. Later, we go through the official unofficial shopping list for the Cubs. That’s uh based on the implications and limitations really of Shota Imanaga accepting the qualifying offer on Tuesday. He’ll play the 2026 season for $22 million before becoming an unrestricted free agent. All players who accept the qualifying offer do have a no trade clause until June 15th. The Cubs declined a three-year club option on Shota earlier this month. Then Shota declined his player option. Then the Cubs gave Shota the qualifying offer. Sam, you were, as you always are in this Cubs content game, the leading voice on this. Uh, not only were you correct, but you analyzed it, I I think properly as well. We all, most of us thought that he was going to decline and and I have no idea why anybody thought that and this chess game was going to end, but he did indeed accept the QO like you thought. First of all, and take a compliment once in a while. Thank you. First of first of all, can we acknowledge that from now until June 15th, the Cubs have three guys on a no trade clause and not one of them is good enough to have that? Well, they have four cuz Tyion has a partial no trade. Oh, they have five because Danby has a full one. Okay, you’re right. I forgot. I forgot about Dansby. I didn’t realize. Tyion, can we stop? Do do we M&M’s at Halloween? What are we doing with the no trade clauses, guys? I get it. In this sense, they don’t have a choice, right? It’s a rule. Yeah. Yeah. If you’re going to have five no trade clauses, you better have five. You better have five team. You better have five perennial Allstars, man. Yeah. I don’t think that’s a bad uh expectation for NTC. When I think no trade clauses, I think about LeBron James. Think about those caliber of players. Joic, uh, Otani, Judge, Sodto. I I I don’t think about, and happy birthday to him. He was unbelievable in the postseason. I don’t think about Tyion. Anyway, um, as far as Shota goes, yeah. Um, not surprised like like you said, not like overly joyed by this. I I was hoping that I was wrong just because we know how, you know, how how strict they’re going to be with the budget and the finances and 22 million. At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself, do you believe this? This is a simple exercise. We really don’t have to get into too much depth with this. Is this pitcher a $22 million pitcher? Will he be that in 2026? And it’s hard to answer yes wi-i with the way it finished. Um I still think he’s going to be a fine pitcher. I think we’re we’re picking at straws here and it shouldn’t matter because this is the Chicago Cubs. My guess is he’ll pitch like a 15 to$17 million pitcher. Should that really matter? No. Will it? Yes. Why, Tom? Um, but you know, I just I I I would have the more flexibility the better for me. Uh, but at the same time, especially at our age, but but but I Oh, we got to go see that Carson exhibit. Um, we really do. It’s right across from the Oakley train station. Can I just tell a really quick anecdote? Um, I was I was watching some old home movies with my family. Um Oh, wow. That’s nice. my mom’s side of the family um from like the mid 80s and my grandfather who who I was really close to passed away when I was 16. Uh they were doing a talent show and his talent was he did a Carson impersonation and unreal man and it was pretty good. It’s unbelievable. Yeah, I’d like to see it. Yeah. You won’t be able to see it because my great aunt has it and I don’t see how you two would ever cross paths. Yeah, I don’t see a path to that. Um but um yeah, I just wish the Cubs had more flexibility, but I also love the player. Um, and I trust the player and I think he’ll produce and it’ll be fine and this won’t be that big of a deal. Yeah, it it at least poses the question if it’s going to limit their off season. I wouldn’t exaggerate this at all and and say it it ruins anything or puts a damper on it, but it certainly poses some some questions that I would have throughout the rest of the episode. uh him returning just on its own. I never mind that. Uh I would like to be a fly on the wall though when he when that in decision got faxed in. It’s probably not a fax anymore, but I I just have to think the Cubs thought he would decline it and then they would and then they would try to work out a two or threeear pact. Um and and and and the reason why is because they didn’t want to just let him walk for nothing. So they said, “Here’s the qualifying offer and when you decline it, we’re going to get our our much heralded draft compensation because that’s really important to the Cubs.” Yep. Uh although they have drafted well um really well. But so when that fax comes in or the email, what was their reaction? Because now their flexibility of money, which is important to them, went down from 73 million to 51, which is a lot, tons. But now you enter the the real off season with seven highly capable starting pitchers. Uh and and it offers security for the team. And he’s a veteran. He’s a veteran that could bring upside. He had at times in 25. He had upside all the time in 24, but 25 was just so up and down for him. Hamstring injury put him out of action. Sam, he had an RA higher than I thought in September. Six six and a half. Yeah, the Mets game was rough. And and in the playoffs gave us a bad taste as well. He wasn’t even in the mix in the the division series. But now you enter the the true off season with with Steel, Horton, Boyd, Tyion, Immanaga, Ray, and Assad. Fan graph says now with Shota back in the fold, their rotation is now the 14th best in baseball. And uh you you try to remain optimistic that they’ll still add someone in between that Steel and Horton spot. Yeah. And if they do that, in the numbers game situation. Top 10 rotation. Well, maybe somebody goes, too. I mean, I I don’t know. It’s the They got They got five plus. So, you know, unless there’s injuries or they really take it slow with steel. Um, who knows? They might do they might do that. Yeah, that that absolutely. I I I think with with with Imanaga to me it just came down to do you trust yourself? You trust yourself to be if you have any trust in yourself, you take this deal. Um the the only the only side part of it would be do you want to be secure through the CBA or do you want to have flexibility if there’s no CBA because he can go pitch in Japan right an individual right? Yeah. Uh uh with that that’s the only thing I don’t know. Would you rather be locked in because you know eventually you get that money for two years 40 or would you rather be a free agent heading into the CBA stuff? I I don’t know the answer to that at all. I’m not an agent but I think it’s involved because four guys took it. Yeah. Yeah. You know, it wasn’t like SHA was the only one. It was a year where a lot of guys took took their teams up on the offer. Well, maybe maybe because it gives you the opportunity to go play professionally while you wait for the season to start and get paid that way. Makes some extra do. I don’t know. I don’t know. Doesn’t make sense to me. All right. Let’s keep breaking down the the current group of guys and what they could do moving forward and and does it limit them uh in theory or or in practice? So, we talk about that next. This episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you could even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. Folks, the Bears come back to the lakefront on Sunday going up against one of the great franchises in the history of the league. It looks like it’ll be no Aaron Rodgers and the Bears are three point favorites at Soldier. Uh, what a weird year it’s been, but what a blast it’s been to watch this team find a way to win football games. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers 300 bucks in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Thank you for making Lockdown Cubs your first listen of the day. Thank you for making Locked On the number one sports podcast network. And you could check out after Bears games, Locked On Bears, where Joe George is and and and company uh as they look to improve on their seven and three record this weekend. All right. Uh Shota returning Sam could have implications, limitations. Uh, I don’t think it takes them out of the market for a top of the rotation starter, but it’s very difficult for me now to see a path to adding one via free agency. Uh, they’re not going to I I already was skeptical of them going 100 plus M’s for a pitcher. It’s not happening now. I mean, do you disagree? 100% agree. So then I have eight names for you and they better get one of these eight names. Granted that this these are the eight names I know about uh thanks to Jeff Passen his piece today ESPN.com. I’m I since I’m on a roll, I’ll tell you who it’s going to be before you even mention it. Uh it be one of these a McKenzie Gore is probably the guy. Wow. And that would be a great pickup and uh Hope Bennett’s okay. Yes, that’s coming through on the air, huh? Ju just for a second. You’re good. So, the eight Hey, maybe he doesn’t want Gore. Maybe that’s a sign. No gore. Too many lefties. Yeah, he doesn’t want that. So, I think Joe Ryan is on the list. Absolutely. So, here are the three big names in my opinion. Joe Ryan, Edward Cabrera, McKenzie Gore. The tier that tier stops. Yeah. Tier two is Sandy Alcantra. H Pablo Lopez, Mitch Keller, Kodi Sanga, and Chris Bubich. Um I I would put Sanga and Bouic in in in a t in a tier above the rest of those names. Well, you could do that. Sure. Uh Sanga just can’t stay healthy. But when he when he pitches, he could pitch. Wow. You you really think low of Alcantra especially. Well, it’s just he I mean he had an ERA of like seven. You really don’t like this guy. What What was his RA last year? About seven. Well, it was at one point. He finished the year really well. I know that he won the Sai Young in 2022. Well, in 2022, I was doing a show from a different house. I mean, you know, we were doing a show for that no one listened to. No, you’re he did finish with a 536. You’re right. Um yeah, his his amazing September that he No, here’s Oh, he finished great. His RA was 371 in September. Like that’s great. He had a great finish to his season. Well, it was he he had a 371. This is off the rails now. Well, I mean, is is that a I I get it. I get it. He he he’s got he’s got tremendous upside. I get it. I get it. I’m fine with it. Well, I have no interest. I mean, I have no interest in Pablo Lopez. I have a question. Mitch Keller weirds me out for a trade. No, no, no. Keller. The Pirates wanted Owen Casey last summer. Well, that’s crazy. Well, why is it okay to have a surplus of pitchers? We’re talking about Steel, Horton, Imminaga, Tyion, Boyd, Assad, and one of these dudes and Ray. And Ry, but we can’t talk about adding to the lineup. That’s already a foregone conclusion. I don’t understand that side of it. So, I’m going to answer it. I think it’s because of finances. I think it’s because there are guys on the market like this that fit the budget like Tucker fit the budget last year. And at some point, you’re not going to be able to just trade top prospects every year to get one to two-year rentals. You’re going to have to go out on the market and spend big dollars. Maybe they do that with Bregman. Um, time will tell. One reason they would try to trade for one of these dudes is so then they could sign a position player. Well, they better if they if all they do is trade for one, they better sign one and a position player. Yeah. No, I’m I’m with you. I remember you being intrigued by Bouic in the summer. I I He was my Cabrera was one. Bubic was two for me. I think that they really want Cabrera still. Yeah. Um but but they were there was some some rumblings even the deadline day itself with Gore about Gore. Yeah 100%. And I think a trade for for a trade is more likely over the winter meetings than maybe C signing or Amay or Valdez or Suarez. So I’ll put it to you like I think for the interest of the show too I think we’re going to get we’ll probably get a move. I mean, that’s not that’s only a few weeks away. I’ll put it to you like this. If they add one of the those three guys, Cabrera, Gore, or um uh uh Ryan or Joe Ryan, No, it’s great. It’s great. Yeah, it’s a top five rotation in baseball and a rotation that can win a World Championship. No. And that gets you really excited. Not not not a team that could win one, but that rotate that’s that’s one that group that group is World Series good. Do you have a conviction like I do that it should unless it’s someone I don’t again I don’t that I don’t know about it really should be one of these eight names like they shouldn’t be trading for um like a Soka type. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. If they’re going to make a trade it should be for one of these eight and really one of the five that and you could go six-man rotation too. Well, I’ve always been an advocate of that. Not to do for 162, but you at times to do it. Well, you you got Steel coming off an injury. Tyone’s been hurt. Boyd’s pitched pitched a lot last year. Show right. You might baby Horton. Every Yeah. Hort. It works for everybody. I You know what? Yeah. I’m going to make I’m going to go This is a two-parter. I think the Cubs trade for one of the three guys you mentioned. I’ll go Gore. And I think they have a six-man rotation for a large part of 25. Mark. Great. I’m on board. Excuse me. 26 for 26. Yeah, we got to get used to that. Yeah. Uh, by the way, 20 the first So, 2026 baseball, real baseball, February 20th is the first spring training game, which is so early. March 5th, WBC. March 26, real opening day against McKenzie Gore’s uh former team. Well, if they don’t trade for him, they’ll be facing him opening day for sure. And against our nation’s capital, Wrigley Field. Yeah. Woof. It’s It could be really, really cold then. Well, 26 in this market. Well, the Cubs better sweep. Do you have any ideas or trying to think how to put this trivia? Well, for McKen for McKenzie Gore, Casey or Bisteros or Shaw is going the other way. Yeah. Do you care about that? Do you have ideas of what what’s uh might be better? Yeah, let’s just use Gore as the example. What’s his contract situation like again? So, he would be under contract through 26 and 27. So, you’re getting two years of him. Do you have an issue with your eyes? No, I’m thinking. Okay. So, two years of Gore. Uh, Bisteros doesn’t go in that deal. No shot. Not for two years of Gore. Um, I’d love to do it without Shaw, too. Casey’s gone in that deal. Forget that. He’s gone, right? Jackson Wiggins might be gone, too. I think that’s where I’d go. Yeah. I think I I think I think could Casey and Wiggins get that deal done maybe with a You throw in a You throw in like a major league guy like a Ben Brown. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Or Jordan Wix or both. Or both would be totally fine. Um so if you could if you could do uh Yeah. So So let’s do that. Casey Wiggins Brown. I think that’s Yeah. Two years isn’t a lot. So I don’t Yeah. I I I think I think we’re in the right ballpark there. No, no to Bayisteros and no to Shaw. Not for two years. If it was five years, that’s a different story. Well, the Tucker package we basically nailed. So, I’ll I’ll make sure to tip put this episode in my notes. I basically I feel like we got it right. Yeah. Including you name dropping Weski’s name. Yeah. So, coming up next, we’re going to go over a little payroll numbers with Shota in the fold and then who are the position guys that may be more realistic than others? What What is the Cubs shopping list given this payroll number? Could they even could they even do it? Find out next. Shout out to the Everydayers. You can become a locked down cubs every day by joining us for every episode throughout the week. $51 million to the first luxury tax threshold. Cubs need one more starting pitcher. They need uh I mean to be to be conservative, four plus relievers. uh two bench players I would say and then the positional starting uh uh impactful position player who could start at either third right or DH is very very TBD but I do want to start there because they’re unlikely to go beyond a total value of 200 million for for a player but That still should put you in a convo with Bregman. An outside chance of reunions with Schwarber and Bellinger. I get that. But then it should put you in a room with Bregman who is going to have a deal that starts with a one, albeit 100 plus million. It should put you in a convo with Au Heno Suarez. The Athletic projects Suarez three for 70. I don’t want him. It should put you in a convo with Morakami and Akamoto. They could if you don’t want to go 200 plus for Bette for Tucker. Okay. But Bett’s getting 200 plus. I think he is. Yeah, you could still reunite with Schwarber. You could reunite with Bellinger. You could get Bregman. I was encouraged. I was by Jeff Passen’s report Tuesday that the Cubs will be in the mix again for Bregman. I of course because it’s going to be a short-term high AV deal they don’t have a ton of commitment for, right? McKenzie Gore is going to get paid $6 million the next two years. So, let me ask you this. Who can afford Alex Bregman? Dude, no. I I I like what I’m hearing. I just I’m not a huge Bregman guy. I I would love to see them. You know, I I again, that just seems like you’re making the move based off of positional fit versus the best guy, which I get. You have to do. Yeah. I’d love to get Schwarber back in here. Uh that’s why you do it for 145 over five for Schwarber. Yeah. What’s Breggman’s What’s What What’s his What’s his look like? Four. That’s his projection. Yeah. I uh I gotta pull that up. All right. Five for 145. Uh so that’s what that’s what like 28 29 a year. It’s 29 on the on the job. Uh yeah, I’d do it. I just I think there’s more reward than there is risk. Yeah, I’d do that. I would do that. Um, they’re not gonna, but I do that. Um, Bregman courting the Athletics six for 171. No, that’s a no for me. That’s a no. Yeah, I just don’t see why would he get that many years if he didn’t last year. So essentially the Cubs have the Cubs right now with everything arbitration all that stuff they’re what about like you said a buck 90 buck 91 for next year. They are. Yeah. 191ish. Yep. Okay. So let’s say that let’s say they want to get to 240. Uh but if they want to get Yeah, that would be great. But if they want to get to 240, they’re probably going to get to 234, 233, so they could leave room for the trade deadline. They shouldn’t because the trade deadline’s too hard to make trades now. Yes. All right, let’s say let’s let’s put pressure on him to get to 240. I think we should. So that So like you said, that says that’s that’s about 50 mil. So you you you you trade for Gore. Yeah, it’ be about 47. So So 47. So you trade for Gore, that’s six. Let’s say you go get a big bat. Let’s highball. Let’s say it’s 30 for the big bat. That’s 30 takes you down. So that’s 11 million and you’re going to have to fill a lot of relievers for 11 million. Um well yeah, you know, you you’d have to do you’d probably have to get you’d have to get some good deals there. Yeah, it would have to be mix of minor league deals, maybe one mid-tier guy. Could there be some sort of salary dump they could do in order to clear up more space in order have to be with Boyd or Tyion? Man, I I hate to say that. That’s where the surplus is, man. Yeah, Hap, but uh Yeah, you’re right. Um Well, or Hap. Sure. No, no, they can’t. I can’t. Right. Because he has a full no trade. Yeah, his whole team does. Um, yeah, it have to be Boyd or Tyion, man. I I don’t I wouldn’t like enjoy to see either of them go. I wouldn’t. How much is Kelly making this year? I think it’s around nine. No, they won’t get rid of him. Wow. You think they’d move on from the catching position? I don’t I don’t Just ask the question. It’s all Wow, he’s only making five M’s. And don’t forget, they got to add to their bench a little bit. Yeah, they do. So, so, so we just talked about the the implications. I mean, this it’s hard to see them adding a $30 million a year type offensive player with with everything that’s going on. It just is because of how hamstrung they are if it’s 240. And that’s why they’ve been previewing and leaking out to local reporters, hey, we want to see Casey and Baseros get a shot, which is code for we don’t want to pay a position player 30 million. We We just solved it. Yeah. Right. Right. So, yeah, it’s a shame that they can’t get the 250 million. It’s a shame. I think they’ll get Rob Rev Snider to uh He could hit lefties stabilize the bench. He could hit lefties. Ref Snider. Yeah, he can. All right. Well, that’s pretty much the show and I would like to propose something to you. So, uh, every day know we’re we’re together Monday, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays. I’m solo Thursday, you’re solo Friday. The next two episodes of this show, of which we’re both solo, do we propose our own? to either propose, it’d have to be your own interpretation. Propose or predict offseason moves based on the 51 million available. No. Is that would that be interesting? I think for you. Okay. You could do that. I I got a guest coming uh Thursday. Yeah, I believe. So, for Friday. Oh, is it is it uh is it Ken Rosenthal? No, it’s not Justin Steel either. Okay. That’s the only guest I’ve ever really had. All right, there is a tender deadline Friday. Could be some more 40man action. Obviously, Shota was added back to the 40man Tuesday. So was James Triantos, Pedro Ramirez, and Riley Martin. So the 40man’s up to 32 players. They don’t have anybody in the bullpen making money that they could get rid of. We’ll continue the offseason discussion. No, no, they don’t have anyone making money. All right. Everyone’s Everyone’s the pre-arbitration. Oh boy. All right. That’s He’s Sam Olber. I have quite a show. He’s Sam Olber. I’m Matt Cozy. This is Locked on Cubs, your team every day. Bennett doesn’t walk away. I really enjoy that. Um

The Cubs face a pivotal offseason after Shota Imanaga accepts the qualifying offer, shaking up the team’s roster strategy. Could payroll leave the Cubs vulnerable? Matt and Sam dissect the financial and roster implications, discussing whether securing Imanaga will limit the ability to pursue big-name free agents or a trade for a top target like Mackenzie Gore, Joe Ryan, and Edward Cabrera.

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