Hi everyone

This is Mark Simon from Sports Info Solutions. Just wrote something and I thought there would be interest here.

We have our own version of "expected stats" that are a little different from MLB's expected stats and I took a look at those … turned out there were a couple of Mets whose numbers were a good amount lower than their expected numbers (Jeff McNeil and Tyrone Taylor) … and that Marcus Semien was on that list too!

If you have any questions after taking a look at the article, please ask … No one is saying these numbers are perfect or absolute but I do think they're interesting.

Thank you and happy Thanksgiving!

11 comments

  3. Who the hell was expecting Jeff McNeil to have an .890 OPS last season?! That’s .100 above his career average and he only reached that once 6 years ago.

    This is a ridiculous article.

    Edit: not sure why I was downvoted. The article says McNeil’s expected OPS last season was .890 which is why he ended up the most disappointing hitter according to the article and I’m asking how that number was reached based on his career stats and trajectory.

  4. McNeil hits line drives in the same spot every at bat. Outfielder adjust and play slightly in and off the line, cutting off balls that would be hits if there was no adjustment made. 

  5. Love Jeff. He had a pretty good bounce-back season and I think there were stretches of him hitting into bad luck on top of that. He was hovering around an .800 OPS all year before playing through injury in September. But…

    https://preview.redd.it/ehv7nxswqf3g1.jpeg?width=1072&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c8b246bab31207d0707ffbdc0e8e14362e609b3

    there’s no fucking way this is right lol. His OPS wasn’t even that high when he won the batting title. Only time it was higher was in 2019 when the balls were juiced. I know he’s changed his approach since then, but there’s just no way.

  6. Hey Mark, thanks for sharing. I’m a former BIS scout, so I’m probably a little familiar with the data and methods that went into this.

    I don’t understand why the first clip of McNeil was a batted ball with 71% probability of being a hit. It didn’t look like the right fielder had to make an above average effort to get to that ball or that they were positioned perfectly to cheat to take away a sure hit. It was a hard hit ball, but it was a fliner sort of right at a fielder.

    Could you share a little bit about why a batted ball like that should be a hit nearly 3/4 of the time?

  7. BTW- McNeil was one of 16 hitters in MLB that defenses recorded at least 10 Runs Saved against (he was 12 runs saved against)- so defenses had something to do with this

  8. Honestly McNeil should have just shut it down in August. He would have been at roughly. 800 OPS.  Then everyone could just complain about him being oft injured. 

     .890 was a pipe dream. But after listening to Stearns presser yesterday, sounds like he’s definitely going to be in the mix. 120 games seems to be the sweet spot for him. And part of Cohen having deep pockets means you get a premium utility guy that can hit well above league average and sub in anywhere outside the pitching battery. 

  9. Thanks Mark. I love this line.

    > Perhaps McNeil will take solace in knowing that his constant frustration was justified.

  10. Funny enough 4 of these too 5 were/will be Mets. Very Mets thing to not live up to expectations.

  11. I wonder what the correlation is to his Batting Title year when it seemed like teams were always shifting against him and he was constantly going the other way. Did teams figure out how to align against him? Or was this just pure bad luck?

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