Atlanta Braves SHOULD Be in on Tatsuya Imai

Atlanta Braves SHOULD Be in on Tatsuya Imai

The Atlanta Braves don’t usually take a chance on Japanese players, but in this case, they should. I’m going to tell you why they need to be all over Tatsuya in today’s episode of Locked on Braves. So, let’s get into it. You are Locked on Braves, your daily Atlanta Braves podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. your team every day. Hey, welcome back to Lockdown Braves, part of Lockdown Sports Atlanta, where we cover your favorite Atlanta sports teams each and every day. Also part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, which is now the number one sports podcast network. I am your host, Jake Mastriani. You can follow me on social media at shortstop.bball. Check out the podcast there at lockdown_raves onx, lockdown braves on Instagram, or wherever you get on the socials. You can help us out on YouTube as well. Just hit that subscribe button, that thumbs up button, leave us a comment down below. And on the audio side, please leave a fivestar review on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcast. Thanks so much making Lockdown Braves your first listen of each and every day. Big shout out to all my everydayers out there. On today’s episode, we’re going to talk about Tatsuya Amayi. The Atlanta Braves don’t usually go after Japanese international free agents, but I’m going to tell you why I think they should on this one. So, we’ll get into all that today, which on today’s episode, which is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. So download the FanDuel app today. Now you can count the number of Japanese players who have played for the Braves on one hand. Even if somehow you lost three fingers on that hand, they don’t go after Japanese players in especially in the international free agent market. The last time they did was in 2009 when they signed Kenshin Kawakami to a three-year deal worth $23 million. Those were for his age 34 through 36 seasons. And yeah, even if you don’t remember, you can probably guess it didn’t work out very well. Although the first season, Makami was okay. Got off to a rough start, but after that it was pretty much a disaster. And the Braves haven’t gone back since. So to say that the odds of the Atlanta Braves signing Tatsuya and Mai are extremely low is probably an understatement. It is not generally considered that the Braves are going to be one of the teams that he is looking at this offseason that the Braves are going to show him much interest. But that would be a mistake. And I’m going to try to tell you why on today’s episode. But Tatsuya Amay is a right-handed pitcher, 5 foot 11, 154 pounds, 27 years old, doesn’t turn 28 till May. So, you’re getting somebody in the prime of their career. Has already played eight seasons in Japanese baseball league. The MPB over there, a 3.15 erra, a 1.27 whip is very high. 4.4 walk per nine also very high, but we’ll talk about that more in a minute. And an 8.5k per nine. Now, couple of things, and I am not a Japanese baseball league expert by any means, but offense very suppressed over there. So, you’ll see some ridiculous erra numbers over there, but you won’t see ridiculously high strikeout rates either because Japanese players do typically put the ball in play and there’s more contact, but just keep that in mind when looking at some of these numbers. Now, the past three seasons, he’s thrown 163, 173 and a third, and 158 innings. And for the past five seasons, he’s been very, very durable pitcher. So, you love to see that. Another note on the Japanese league, it’s generally for starters, you’re pitching once a week. It’s a six-man rotation. You’re pitching once a week. You’re making, you know, 26, 27, 28 starts a year. Now, since being posted, and Ami’s already been posted, he has until January 2nd to sign with the team. One big advantage to signing Ami and others from Japan is that it doesn’t come with a qualifying offer, so you won’t lose that that PPI pick that you get for Drake Ballwin winning rookie of the year and the bonus pool money that comes with that. However, you will have to pay a pretty penny for a posting fee in order to get him. But I’d rather pay that than give up the bonus pull money and that pick in the draft. Looking at the pitch mix for Tatsuya Amay, mid to upper 90s fast ball sits kind of 95, but can get up to, you know, 98, 99 even. And it has some run on it. It’s not big induced vertical break numbers, but he throws from a lower arm slot and it does have some armside run on it. So, it’s a very good fast ball and like I said, can get it into the upper 90s, but mainly sits mid 90s. So, that’s really good velocity, especially for his size and that arm slot. A wipeout slider. It’s his best pitch by far. Devastating on right-handed pitchers, especially a 53% whiff rate for righties against that slider this past season, and it was effective against lefties as well with a 36% whiff rate on that slider for lefties. So can use it against both but both but obviously very good against right-handed hitters. And then has three different types of change ups. Obviously coming from Japan you have to have the splitter but also throws regular change up and a Vulcan change. And those three pitches are very important for how he gets out left-handed hitters. Mentioned that slider more so for righties. He throws the slider and the fast ball to righties around 93% of the time. So it’s primarily a two- pitch pitcher two righties. Those two pitches are really really good. But for lefties, he will throw the slider in there. But it’s very important, especially coming over to the big leagues, to have that change up to go to go against lefties as well. So important that he’s able to develop one at least one of those change ups. Throw the curveball as well. But primarily for Amaya, it’s that fastball slider combination. Now, I’m going to give you some talking points here. I got these from Yuri Kerasawa, who is on who runs the Yaku Cosmopolitan. Uh that’s y a k y u cosmo on social media. You want to go check him out, but follows the Japanese baseball league. He was recently on the fantasy baseball today podcast that I listened to which led me to really wanting to buy in to Tatsua Amayi. So I’m going to give you some of the talking points from that podcast that Kurasawa pointed out and said that he’s more Amaya is more in the Kodasa range in terms of upside not quite to the level of Yamamoto. So somewhere kind of in between there should be considered one of the top three free agents this offseason along with Dylan CE and framer Valdez. So puts him in that range of pitcher that would definitely be the top of this free agent market. They talked about the walk rate that has gone down each of the past five seasons going all the way from nearly 14% walk rate which is just awful all the way down to a 7% walk rate this past year. So that’s been a huge improvement for him. And Chris said you can buy into that because he did make some mechanical adjustments to simplify the the delivery, change that arm slot. And so you can buy into the walk rate going down because of those adjustments and something that was tangibly done to fix that. He said it is still more control over command but able to throw more strikes. And you have to consider the adjustment to Major League Baseball. They Major League Baseball uses a different baseball that Japan does. And you hear it all the time with Japanese pitchers coming over that sometimes it can take months for them to get used to throwing the baseball that we use here in the States. So, that’s something that you have to consider, especially for a guy that’s had command and control issues in the past and also might benefit from a six-man rotation, which we’ll talk about more in the second segment because I think that that is a I think that’s something that the Atlanta Braves could potentially offer for Amay. And then maybe the best thing and what I put in the thumbnail here to drive a lot of you in is that Amaya had a comment recently saying that he he would rather beat the Dodgers than join them. This is a quote from Amay himself on a podcast called the Hodto Station who said, “Of course, I’d enjoy playing alongside Otani Yamamoto and Sasaki. Uh, but winning against a team like that and becoming a world champion would be the most valuable thing in my life. If anything, I’d rather take them down.” So, you heard that here first, Tatsua, you didn’t hear here first, but he wants to take on Otani. He wants to take on the Dodgers. Now, we’ll see how much he actually means that if the Dodgers come carrying a big bag of cash, I’m sure he’s not going to want to turn that down. But it’s definitely, I think, refreshing to hear uh for especially for one of these Japanese players coming over that maybe just all of them won’t join the Dodgers and maybe you have somebody that actually views Otani and the rest of those guys on the Dodgers as I don’t want to say enemies, but at least has that competitive edge that hey, I don’t want to join these guys. I want to take them down. I want to beat them. So, I think if you can convince him that the Braves are the team to do that and you know, the Braves did it in 2021. That’s been a while from now and these last couple years may not help with convincing him that the Braves are the team to take on and rival the Dodgers, but I do just personally and biasly think that the Braves can do that. But it’s just nice to hear. And again, hopefully he won’t sign the Dodgers. hopefully they don’t just wipe the floor with all these big Japanese free agents that are here this off season. But I I think that’s a you know a point in the Braves favor cuz I think many people will consider them along with the Mets and the Phillies as one of the teams that could compete with the Dodgers. And so maybe that’s a point in their favor for hopefully landing the big time free agent coming over from Japan. Next we’ll talk about what it will cost to get Amaya. Obviously, it’s not going to come cheap, but it is going to depend on how evaluators view him and what you think the ultimate outcome for him will be. We’ll talk about all that here next. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even missed the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. You got NFL action coming up this Thanksgiving weekend. The Lions are a two and a half point favorite over the Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs are a three-point favorite over the Cowboys and the Ravens are a seven-point favorite over the Bengals on Thanksgiving. So, you can check all those odds there at FanDuel.com. Also, make sure you visit fandle.com/playsafe for tools and resources to help you stay in control of the way that you play. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Thank you as always for making Lockdown Braves your first listen of the day. Go check out Locked on MLB for your second listen of the day. slowly getting caught up on everything happening around Major League Baseball like teams that might actually sign Tatsua MI. You can hear all that over on Locked on MLB. But make sure you’re subscribed right here to Locked On Braves as well. Got a special episode coming your way on Wednesday as you travel for the Thanksgiving holidays. Me and Lindsay will be on the podcast tomorrow breaking down everything that’s happened so far in the Braves off season and what’s to come. So, make sure you got your notification bell turned on and all that so you know when that episode gets posted. Then on Friday, we’ll have our mailbag episode. So look for a post for me on lockdown braids onx asking for your question. Submit your question to that post to be answered on Friday’s live mailbag episode. So hope you all have a great Thanksgiving and a good Black Friday coming up this week. But again, we’ll keep you covered here at Locked on Braves. Getting back into our discussion here of Tatsua Imi and why I think the Braves should sign him and it makes a lot of sense. But let’s talk about how much it’s going to cost. is not going to be cheap. And this is going to be Alexandos and the Braves taking a chance here and a big chance. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to get six years, $150 million. So that’s $25 million a year. And right there, it’s over that $22 million a year mark. So you know, that’s going to be a hard sell for Alex and I’ve even seen other projections out there at 8 years, 200 million. So it could get even more. It really just depends on how evaluators see him. In that MLB trade rumors projections article, there’s one evaluator saying that there’s too much reliever risk. They see him becoming a reliever. And as I said earlier, listening to um Kurasawa of of Yuku Cosmopolitan talk about how he could be a Tyler rotation arm that he has that much upside. So I think there’s a a varying range of possibilities for Tatsua in May and it’s just going to depend on how you view him as to what how much and what team is going to go out on that limb that views him highly that’s going to go on that limb and give him that money. Now you look at the framework for some recent, you know, top Japanese starting pitchers that came over. Uh Yamamoto got 12 years, 325 million from the Dodgers, which is just an insane amount, but it just won them a World Series. So, it’s already paying dividends. And then Kodai Singa signed a 5year $75 million deal. So, you see two opposite ends of the spectrum here. With Ami, you are signing a guy, like I said, that is 27, you know, going to turn 28 in May. So, you’re getting a guy that’s very young who’s capable of getting a a six, sevenyear deal. I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibility. So, again, it just as with all these things, it’s going to depend on what the price point is. Plus, you are going to have to pay a significant posting fee of about 25 million in order to get him. So, you got to consider that as well. And look, if we’re just going to sit back and say the Raids aren’t spending any money, we can’t we just won’t talk about any of these top free agents. But, you know, as I keep saying, at some point, you got to take some risk. And yes, this is a risky move, but I think there is a lot of upside to it. And I think there’s a lot of benefits for both the Braves and for Tatsua Mi if he were to sign here. And one is that I think the Braves are set up maybe as well as anyone to go with a six-man rotation, at least to start the year. Obviously, things happen and you have to shift and adjust. But let’s let’s pretend that they are able to sign Tatsula Amay and you could go with a six-man rotation of Chris Sales, Spencer Schwelenbach, Amay, Strider, Elder, and Walter to begin the season. You know, that could be your six-man rotation with J.R. Richie, Lucas Braun knocking on the doors, prospects, Joey Wentz in there. You could, you know, even throw Jose Suarez in there if you had to. there are options for the Atlanta Braves in this rotation in order to appease him a little bit and give him a six-man rotation. Now, to kind of tease the episode between me and Lindsay a little bit more, we talk about the idea of going to a six-man rotation and how that is difficult, and I agree. I don’t think you can stick with a six-man rotation the entire season, but I do think the Braves are set up as well as anyone other than the Dodgers to have the ability to at times throughout the year go to a six-man rotation. Even at times when you don’t, you can play around with off days to still make sure that a might only pitches once a week. And so I think the Braves could sell him on that that they are a team with enough depth in the rotation to allow him to still pitch once a week and stay on that, you know, six-man type of rotation that he’s used to in Japan for the most part. Now you get down to it, you need your best starters, you know, elders, first half elder last year and not second half elder. You know, maybe Waldrip takes a step back. like you might have to adjust some things, but I think the Braves could at least offer that to him and at least have the ability to do that for him. So, that is one thing that I think would benefit both teams. Now, there’s also the argument against this that the Braves will need to already be very careful with Chris Sale, with Spencer Swellenbach, with Spencer Strider, and can they really afford to have another starter that they kind of have to baby a little bit? And maybe that’s not the right word for it, but that you have to to manage their workload a little bit. And do you want another starter like that? Or would it be more beneficial for the Braves to go out and get, you know, kind of what I have been pushing for is a veteran innings eater that you know can give you 170 innings and it’s going to go every fifth day and give you quality five, six innings pitched. Would that be more beneficial for the Braves than taking an upside shot on a guy like Amay who could be top of the rotation arm? But you might have to manage his his workload in his innings a little bit when you’re already doing that for some other guys. So I understand both sides of the argument on that. But with Amay, you’ll be getting a guy who, like I said, depends on what evaluators you want to look at. But just from the words of the guy that I know follows that league very closely and watches all of their games, thinks he has, you know, top of the rotation type of potential, at least number three starter potential and is going into his age 27 season. Has been very durable in the NPB. I think that’s just a tremendous opportunity for the Atlanta Braves. You don’t have to risk losing that qualifying offer like you would if you were going to go after um you know, even a Ranger Suarez, Dylan CE, Framber, all those guys. you wouldn’t have to worry about losing that qualifying offer. And it’s somebody who is motivated to take down Otani and the Dodgers and not join them. Like I said, we’ll see what happens if the Dodgers show up with a big pile of money. But at least somebody that is is not afraid to say that and put that on record, I think is is very cool just quite honestly and would love to have that type of attitude on this team. uh you’ll be deepening the top of your rotation and that you know you get Amai and all of a sudden you got Cell, Schwenbach, Strider and Amay. Four guys that you feel pretty confident in at the top of your rotation and hopefully you get at least two or three of them to the postseason assuming you get to the postseason healthy enough to be part of your rotation. So it just deep deepens the top of your rotation a little bit assuming that Amaya comes over and is a a top of the rotation type of arm. Now, there’s obviously risk. There’s always risk when you’re signing a free agent starting pitcher. You know, he perhaps he struggles with the transition over uh the control issues come back, especially when have to to deal with a a new type of baseball, a baseball that’s a little bit different, and you’re potentially stuck with a guy that’s a fastball slider reliever who’s making 25 million a year. Now, I I do think there’s a chance with that fast ball, you know, being upper 90s, a slider being as devastating as it is, that there is a fallback option of Amai being perhaps even a shutdown closer, but still, that’s a a lot of money, assuming the projections are correct and he’s getting around 25 to 28 million a year. That’s a lot to pay a guy to be a closer, but I think he does at least have that that floor, right? So, it’s kind of what you look for in top prospects. I talked about it with Hen Waldrip, you know, a guy that has a ceiling, as a a top the rotation starter, but a floor even as a, you know, top setup man, potentially reliever. That’s kind of what you look for in your prospects. And I think that same is is true here for Amaya. I think he has the upside to be a top rotation guy. you know, if those control issues get even better and the improvements that he’s made in Japan carry over to Major League Baseball with the the fast slider combination that he has and those other pitches develop, I think he has top the rotation potential. But even if he doesn’t, I still think he has setup closer type potential. It’s just at that point, you’ve already committed to paying this guy top of the rotation type of of money. So definitely risk as there are with all of these moves, but at some point you got to take a calculated risk if you’re Alexanopoulos and the Braves. I’m not sitting here trying to say that Tatsua Amay is that guy? But I definitely think he should be in consideration. If he’s not going to go to the Dodgers, why not the Braves? Of course, but not the Braves. And it’s probably the it’s probably the Padres’s. That would be really fun after the comments that he made. It’s probably the Yankees. It’s probably the Mets. It’s probably, you know, some of these teams that the Japanese players normally go to go towards. But wouldn’t it be cool for the Braves to actually go out and take a shot like this on a guy like Tatsua Amay? A guy we know they won’t be taking a shot on anymore is Sunonny Gray as he got traded on this Tuesday. We’ll talk about that more here next. So, one pitcher that we know is off the market right now for the Atlanta Braves is Sunny Gray. It was reported on Tuesday that the Red Sox shipped him off to or not the it was that the Cardinals shipped him off to the Red Sox for a pair of prospects. The Cardinals sent $20 million in the deal. I thought it was a fair deal. I talked about a lot. I know many of you have speculated on the Braves perhaps making this type of move. And I said the Cardinals would have to eat at least $15 million for me to even consider it and not take much of a prospect hall back. They end up eating $20 million. They do get the Red Sox top five or number number five overall prospect and a guy in Richard Fitz that’s you know back of the rotation swingman type of of stuff. I I said the equivalent for the Braves would have been like a Bryce Elder Garrett Bowman you know a young starter with some upside and then a guy that you could you know use in the back of your rotation right now. I think Lindsay kind of uh made the equivalent of Bryce Selder and Owen Murphy. I think that’s you know pretty pretty comparable right there. Uh, but that’s that’s likely what the price would have been for the Braves. And again, I wouldn’t have hated doing that. I was never as big on Sunny Gray as others were, so I’m not that upset that they didn’t make that trade happen. But that is another name that is off the board for the Atlanta Braves as you’re looking for a potential fit for them in the starting pitcher market because I do think it is I do think it is important. And I I asked Lindsay this too on uh on the podcast that will come out on on Wednesday before Thanksgiving. I I still think it’s imperative for the Braves to find a starting pitcher. Now, as I said, it doesn’t have to be Tatsua Amay. I would love for that to happen for for them to get a potential top the rotation arm, but they do have to find some sort of veteran to lengthen out the depth. And if you have to go to a six-man rotation at least to start, you know, there’s going to be attrition at some point. So, go ahead and get that depth now while you you can instead of having to search for it during the season instead of having to call up a prospect before they’re ready. Now, as I said on the episode yesterday with J.R. Richie, I think the guy’s ready and he’s proven, but we don’t know what that transition is going to look like. You know, we don’t know if it’s it’s going to be a Kyle Wright who really struggled to make that transition for a while or we don’t know if it’s going to be a Spencer Swellowach who came up and immediately was one of the better pitchers in baseball. You just never know with some of these prospects where they are mentally and how they’re going to handle that transition. So while JR Richie maybe even a Lucas Braun, you know, look ready like they’re knocking on the door. Blake Burke Halter if he’s able to stay around in the system, you just never truly know. Dier Fuentes, that’s a great example of a guy that big- time stuff, maybe some of the best stuff in the system, but just clearly wasn’t ready to make that transition. So, you just never know. But right now, you have the chance to go out and get somebody that you are at least a little bit more confident in. And that’s why I think it is still imperative that the Braves find that starting pitcher of some level this off seasonason to go ahead and deepen that depth while you have the chance instead of getting into the season, somebody get somebody or two gets hurt and you’re having to call up some some prospects you’re not sure of. you’re having to, you know, throw Joey Wentz and and Carlos Carrasco’s of the world in there where you really don’t feel too confident in those guys. So, I hope the Braves are continuing to look for starting pitcher and we know at least AA has said that they are. But we’ll see. Maybe it is Tatu Amay. What do you think? Let me know down in the comments section below. What do you think the chances are the Braves ever sign anybody from Japan again? Let me know down below. Uh, and then the Rays signed Jake Freilley. So, Jake Freley continuing to get him passed around. I think it’s the second time he’s been with the Rays this off season. Um so I I didn’t know the Braves might take another shot on him. Uh but he’s uh getting a guaranteed 3 million Mark Topkin reports and can earn an additional 400K. So pretty good deal there for Jake Frillley. He was rejected to get around 3.6 million in free agency. So uh gets you know three with a possibility of 3.4 does Jake Frilly this off seasonason to go to the Rays. All right, that will do it for this episode of Locked on Braves. Hope you all have a great Thanksgiving. Again, have a podcast coming out on Wednesday as well. Me and Lindsay talking about Cody Bellinger, the need for a big bat. Do they need to go after Hassan Kim since they have Mauricio Don? Is it worth the price to pay for Hassan Kim since you already have Dubon? Do you need a big pitcher this off seasonason or just any type of pitcher this off seasonason? And me and Lindsay discuss all that on Wednesday’s episode, which you can listen to while you’re traveling to your Thanksgiving destination. Hope you all have safe travels. Hope you all have a great Thanksgiving. I’ll be back on Friday for our mailbag episode. So, get your questions ready for that. And then we’ll be gearing up for the winter meetings. We usually see a lot of moves happen in that first couple of weeks of December. So, I think we’re going to see a lot more action happening here very, very soon. And if you haven’t already, hit that subscribe button. Hit that thumbs up button. Leave us a comment down below. Love hearing from you. Love reading all of those comments. Even if I don’t get a chance to respond to them, I do love going through them and reading them when I get the chance. So, thank you so much for your support there. Again, make sure that you rate, review, and subscribe to the Lockdown Breeze podcast wherever you get your podcast. And we will talk to you next

Atlanta Braves urged to pursue top Japanese pitching talent as Tatsuya Imai eyes MLB. Can the Braves break tradition and land a rotation-changing ace to rival the Dodgers?

Jake Mastroianni breaks down Tatsuya Imai’s profile, from his mid-90s fastball and devastating slider to his improving command and competitive fire against Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers. Discussion centers on Imai’s posted free agency, contract projections, and the Braves’ rare history with Japanese players. Key topics include the strategy of a six-man rotation, the risks and upside of big-money international signings, and how Atlanta’s pitching depth shapes their offseason priorities. Also covered: Sonny Gray’s move off the market and why adding a proven veteran starter remains crucial for Atlanta’s postseason ambitions.

Is this the risk the Braves need to boost their World Series hopes?

Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…
🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-braves/

Locked On MLB League-Wide: Every Team, Prospects & More
🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/leagues/mlb/

#Braves #AtlantaBraves #mlb

Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!
Gametime
Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.

FanDuel
Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA and NFL seasons are here, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.

FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

00:00 — Braves and Tatsuya Imai Discussion
10:02 — Tatsuya Imai Contract & Braves Fit
20:43 — Sonny Gray Trade & Braves’ Pitcher Search