What the Sonny Gray Trade TELLS US About the Seattle Mariners’ Ability to Deal Luis Castillo

What the Sonny Gray Trade TELLS US About the Seattle Mariners’ Ability to Deal Luis Castillo

Coming up on today’s Locked On Mariners, we’ll discuss what the sunny gray trade might tell us about Luis Castillo’s value. Colobby, hit it. [Music] You are Locked On Mariners, your daily Seattle Mariners podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. Ohoy sailors. It is Wednesday, November 26th, 2025. You’re listening to the Locked On Maris podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, now the number one sports podcast network. My name is Todd Gonzalez and I’m joined as always by my co-host Colobby Patnode. We’re two lifelong Maris fans who’ve been covering the team for over half a decade. And today we’re going to look at yesterday’s trade between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals, which of course sent veteran starting pitcher Sunny Great Boston, and discuss what it might tell us about Luis Casio’s trade value. Then we’ll also weigh the pros and cons of trading not just Castillo, but each member of the Mara’s rotation. Before we do though, I want to shout out our title sponsor today, FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. So, Sunny Gay has been shipped off to Boston to $35 million in 2026. uh and also has a $5 million buyout uh in 2027 on a $30 million mutual option. So that’s $40 million guaranteed for a very good starting pitcher, but not an elite starting pitcher. Uh the Cardinals, however, sent the Red Sox $20 million in cash. And for that, they got a pretty decent return here. You got Brandon Clark, left-handed pitcher, who’s getting some top 100 buzz going into 2026. And and Richard Fitz, who can pitch in the big leagues tomorrow. So, pretty good return again for a guy that, you know, last week when we were doing our NL Central trade preview, I I saw his salary and I was like, whoa, that that’s a lot of money. Uh, and I think this is the closest deal we’ll see all winter. uh that will inform us maybe of what Luis Castillo’s value might be. Now, it’s not a perfect one for one comp cuz obviously like Castillo in 2026 is only making $24.1 million and you know the mayors could obviously chip in some money there and make it make him even less expensive than Gray is going to be for Boston. Uh but his guarantees throughout the rest of his contract are greater than Sunny Gray’s guarantees. It’s about $48 million in guarantees for Castillo. Plus, there’s also the whole vesting option thing for 2028 as well. And also, like if you want to go by F4, uh Castillo has been worse than Gray the last couple years. Uh if you want to go by B, they’ve been basically the same pitcher. Uh Gray has got more strikeouts. He’s better on the road than than Castillo. So, like there there’s all those factors that that come into play here. But again, I feel like this is the closest we’ll get to potentially informing us on what Castillo’s value might be. So, what what do you think this tells us, if anything, about Castillo’s value? Yeah, it’s tough to say because Gray is the better pitcher. Uh, but it’s not a significant difference between him and and Castillo. It’s just really not in terms of the actual onfield value they provide. They’re roughly in the same in the same boat. You know, if if Gray is better, he’s like half a grade better, not a full grade better uh than Luis right now. So, it’s a little bit tough to say. Uh because again, like Gray had more of a a hit in year one. Uh whereas Castillo has a second year of club control, which usually would on the trade market be worth more than a rental. But in Castillo’s case, because of the trends and because of the the money that he’s due, it might actually be, you know, a negative uh on on his trade value. So, you’re kind of in this weird zone where does the extra year of club control actually help you or hurt you if you’re looking to make a Sunny Gray type of trade? Uh because again, you could also eat enough money to make Luis Castillo and honestly, you don’t have to eat all that much money to make Luis Castillo cheaper than Sunny Gay. and Sunny Gay again and Luis Castile are near the same tier. Um, so it it really is an interesting, you know, conversation to have. I don’t know how much this tells us, um, just because, you know, the splits is is a big thing. The home road splits for Luis, uh, is is a big thing that doesn’t really exist with Sunny Gray. But I think if you’re Mariners and you’re looking at this trade, you’re going, “Okay, well, that’s what we want because we want somebody who is, you know, like a legitimate asset and then we want a guy that we can plug into our rotation to replace Castillo right away.” And obviously, you know, a guy like Fitz probably not going to be as good as Luis uh this year, but he’s at least major league ready and he’s better than Logan Evans. So yeah, the Cardinals don’t really have to worry about that all that much because they’re rebuilding and and they’re okay having a, you know, a true number five starter being their number three guy because they don’t care. It’s not about wins and losses for them this year. We’re so Seattle’s going to want a little bit more impactful help. So I I think overall when you kind of combine all these things, I think this trade his trade cost is like the most the Mariners could hope for from Luis Casio. this is the ceiling of a Casio trade. I don’t think they’re doing this. Uh I don’t know if they can do as good as this. Uh but it it is, you know, honestly I don’t know if it’s all that much different than the trade we came up with in our offseason plan. Uh because, you know, Bird Song and and and uh Fitz are kind of similar in terms of like where they’re at big league wise and they got big league seasoning. They both had a little bit of big league success, but ultimately they haven’t stuck yet. Uh the big difference here is the prospect quality that they got. So yeah, um I I don’t know. I It’s tough to say again because of the road the home road splits. Boston is also a team that in theory would have had interest in Luis Castillo that no longer would. So the market might have shrunk a little bit. But then again, also one of the pitchers that might be traded this winter is now off the market as well. So it’s a little tough to say. It’s a little tough to nail down. I would say ultimately this trade tells us what the ceiling of any Luis Cap is. Uh and I think that’s about it. Like if you thought you could get more for Luis than what the Red Sox got for Sunny Gray, you’re disappointed by this return. Um but I I think this is the ceiling. And I I think if they were to trade Luis, they would look be they would be lucky to get something I don’t know 80% of this maybe something like that. So yeah, I don’t know if it tells us a ton, but it it does give us some idea to shoot for. I I think just the the issues that are presented with a Casio deal with a potential Casio deal um are too different from Sunny Gay situation that this could be like a one forone type of comparison here. Um like the the home road splits specifically. I mean that this just while the money uh aspect of Gray is a you know a bigger hurdle for or was in theory a bigger hurdle for teams to overcome. There’s just more options there. I I think I think there would just be more teams interested in Gray and there would be more willingness in putting Gray in in their home ballpark for half a season because of just the the great difference in in home road splits between these two guys. I mean Sunny Gray last year opponents hit 247 272 429 against him on the road. Luis Castillio opponents hit 302 342 491 against on the road. like we’ve talked about, you know, over the past few weeks, the teams that are probably going to be interested in uh Castillo are teams that have, you know, pitcher friendly ballparks or, you know, ballparks that at least skew towards being pitcher friendly. Um, now none of them are going to be as extreme as T-Mobile Park, but you know, it’s it’s the Giants, it’s the Padres’s, but there’s only a handful of teams that both make sense to actually go out and acquire Luis Casio, who also have the ballpark that they might feel comfortable bringing Castillo into the fold in. So I think from that perspective just because there’s there’s just going to be fewer options probably there’s going to be fewer teams interested in Castillo than there were on Sunny Gray potentially for that reason. Um I think that the the path to getting a return similar to what the Cardinals got is a lot more narrow. Mhm. So, yeah, maybe this is the the ceiling on on a Casio deal, but again, because there probably aren’t going to be as many teams in on Casio, I don’t know. I don’t know if they I don’t know if the Mariners can get that price that high in negotiations. Yeah, it’s also possible the Mariners might just end up if they do trade Castillo, which I mean I I don’t think we have a lot of indication that they’re going to, but if they did, uh they might be looking at an entirely different type of deal. It might be a contract swap type of situation, which, you know, the the the Cardinals, they don’t want. The whole point is to get rid of the money. Uh and and so they could save $20 million on Sunny Gray and get that package. That’s a win for them. Uh the Mariners might not be all that interested in that type of deal because they still want to compete. And so if they can trade, and this isn’t going to happen, but again, just hypothetically, like a Luis Castillo for Jeff McNeel thing, it’s like, okay, they save money and they get a utility guy slash second baseman slash whatever, right? Like, so they save a little bit of money on Castillo and they get a player who can help them uh this year. I think that is more likely the deal that the Mariners would try and make. uh down finding that deal as Ty and I discovered on the two weeks we worked on the offseason plan. That’s the hard part because there’s really not a ton of options there but some kind of you know I Jake Croninworth, Jeff McNeel, you know, um what Jeff Hoffman, I don’t know, uh trade is is like maybe the way that the Mariners go. But yeah, I think all in all, you look at the Sunny Grey trade, you look at how that impacts the Mariners and Luis Castillo, I think you say, well, that’s the ceiling. Like that’s the best they can do. If they want a like pure prospect package, dump a lot of the money type of trade, like that’s the best they can do. And by the way, to get that, the Mars are still going to have to eat some Luis Castillo’s money. So again, you know, I do feel like if we are going if we are going to hear anything about a Luis Castillo trade, it’s probably going to be like just sprung on us and it’ll probably be shortly after the new year when the no trade uh clause officially expires. So let’s weigh the pros and cons of not just trading Castillo, but every pitcher in the Mars rotation. We’ll do that in just a moment, but first a reminder, this episode of the Locked Mars podcast is brought to you by FanDuel and Doer. 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Go now to shopder.com/lockedon seattle. You’ll get 15% off your first order. That’s shopd.com/lockedon seattle for 15% off. Shopdoer.com/lockedon seattle. And you’re listening to the locked mirrors podcast part of the locked on podcast network. Your team every day. Thank you so much for making us your first listen. And also, thank you for making Locked On the number one sports podcast network. A quick programming note for tomorrow for Thanksgiving. We’re going to be taking the day off, unless the Mariners decide to do something. You know, they did trade for Jean Seagura and Mitch Haniger um the night before Thanksgiving. So, maybe if something like that happens either tonight or tomorrow, we’ll we’ll do another show. Uh but if not, we’ll be back on Friday for probably Fanfiction Friday. So, keep an eye out for that. All right. So, we just talked about, you know, what the Sunny Gay trade might say about Luis Castillo’s market. Now, let’s just talk about trading Castillo and trading any of these other pitchers and air’s rotation. Uh, and and just what the pros and cons are would be of doing that. So, let’s start with Castillo. The pros and cons should obvious should be obvious because we’ve talked about them already so much over the last few weeks. We talked about him a lot last year as well. Uh but to you, what are the clear pros and cons of trading Luis Castio? Uh the pro is is I mean the pro might be that you get out from some of this contract and and you have more money to spend than you currently do. Yeah. That’s really the pro. Um, it would also possibly clear up an opening in your rotation for 2027 when we are anticipating Kate Anderson, Darangelo Sanger, maybe Ryan Sloan to be ready to compete for for that opening. Um, so those are kind of the pros. Uh, the con is is that you don’t have the Luis Castile replacement ready in house. uh you’re going to give up your uh probably, you know, safest pitcher in terms of, you know, giving you innings on a year-to-year basis. So, you’re going to have a lot of innings to cover uh without the ability to cover them inhouse. And you’re going to have to uh you know, whatever money you save on Castillo in a trade, you’re probably going to have to put right back into the rotation to get a pitcher who probably isn’t going to be quite as good as Luis Castillo. uh you kind of lose the veteran presence in your rotation. Although Kirby and and Logan are certainly veterans now. Um but you do kind of lose that veteran presence and you lose a big game pitcher. Luis Castillo for all his, you know, flaws and whatnot really does shine when when the game is is more important. He does seem to dial it in and get sharper and significantly better. And he just really is a gamer. So you kind of lose that edge in your rotation. you lose the uh the value of the bulk innings that he gives you. You lose the relative uh safety of his health. Uh and that’s important when you look around this rotation and you see all the guys who missed time last year. Luis Castillo the only guy who didn’t. So there certainly a lot of cons uh to trading Luis Castillo. Brian Woo with four years left of club control. The only pro that I could find here is that, you know, you would get a hall for him, but also wouldn’t teams just go, “Well, that’s just too expensive. We’re just going to go target X, Y, and Z instead.” Right. Well, I think the idea here is that like if a team is willing to give you what you think that player is worth, what are the pros and cons to trading him? The con is is you’re trading your best pitcher. Yeah. And again, maybe you get his replacement in the trade, but you don’t have that. Like the the con for all these guys is Logan Evans is the next man up. Like that’s the con uh to to trading all these guys. Uh so that’s just a blanket statement there. But the pro is is that Woo gets you the most I think. uh he uh would be the guy and also you know the pro is that Brian Woo is probably the one with the longest injury history of any of these guys. So that could be a way you know you sidestep it before all the wear and tear of pitching over the next four years hits him and then you have to decide do we sign him to an extension or not. But I think the pro for Woo is that he would net you the most because the the price for Brian Woo who just finished fifth in Sai Young voting. Uh who has gotten kind of better every year he’s been in the big leagues. Uh and we don’t even know if he’s reached his ceiling yet. He doesn’t walk guys. He misses enough bats. Uh he basically dominates with two pitches and and he’s shown a a real knack for for you know finding that slider at times. And if you can get that more consistent, you might have a legit number one on your hands. So, yeah, the pro is that he nets you the most. Uh the con is a the depth aspect of it and b you might honestly be selling a little low on him because the difference between three years of Brian Woo and four years of Brian Woo on the trade market, it’s really probably not going to be that significant. But if Brian Woo goes out there and does what he did this year again and now he’s got like, you know, the the track record of being a top five, six, seven pitcher in the American League, you’re probably going to end up getting more back for him if you just wait a year than if you don’t. Uh but yeah, the I I think ultimately I I find it hard to believe that you can be a better team in 2026 trading Brian Woo uh than you would be because kept him. You’re listening to the Locked Oners podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, if you want to hear from me and Colobby even more and help support the show, we have a Patreon. It’s called Control the Zone and on there we talk Mariners, Seahawks, all that good stuff. For more information, go to patreon.com/control thezone link in the description. We are weighing the pros and cons of trading all the pitchers in the Mars rotation, not just Luis Castillo. just talked about Casio and Brian Woo. I kind of want to put Logan Gilbert and George Kirby kind of in the same category here. Even though that Kirby has one extra year of club control, I feel like the cons are basically the same of trading both of these guys that you’re probably selling low on either of them coming off of the years that they’re coming off of. Uh now Kirby really started to lock in there uh in the second half of the year and and in the postseason uh for the most part. He had a pretty good postseason uh but obviously started the year hurt and just had a down year statistically. Uh and then obviously we know the deal with Logan uh the elbow thing just not being able to get through uh starts that efficiently. Um you know really struggling to put guys away in a timely manner all that. uh then had a very poor ALCS on top of that as well. Uh so I just feel like you’re selling low on both of those guys that it just really doesn’t make sense to trade either one of those guys this winter. Yeah. I think the thing with Logan though is that like this is your last chance to get something significant for him because once he becomes a rental a one-year rental that’s going to severe like the biggest gap in terms of trade value is going from two years of club control to one year. There’s a steep gap because look at what, you know, Corbin Burns for one year got. He got a couple, you know, a former back of the top 100 prospect who didn’t really find his footing with the Orioles and he got a back end of the top 100 prospect and Joey Ortiz who’s really a defense first guy and they got a draft pick. Well, you know, Logan isn’t as good as Corbin Burns right now. I mean, could Burn could he have a year where he becomes like the Corbin Burns level pitcher in 2026? Sure. But that’s probably the ceiling of what you’re getting. Whereas if you trade him right now, even coming off of the year that he is, you’re probably going to get more than that. So the pro is is that like this is your last shot to really, you know, cash in on Logan Gilbert as a club controlled young top of the rotation starter because after this year, you could still trade him, but you’re just going to get significantly less. If you’re going to trade a star, you want to do it with two years left, not three or not one. Um, so honestly, that might be the pro to trading Logan. Uh I think one of the cons to trading Logan is obviously that well it just me personally I don’t know this for sure. It does feel like Logan is uh significantly more likely to sign an extension here than George Kirby. And I don’t think you want to be in a position where you’re trading both of these guys in backto-back years because you couldn’t get an extension done. Uh, so yeah, I think that’s probably and I think Logan has the highest ceiling of anybody in the in the rotation as well. So, uh, yeah, I think you know the whole you’re selling low on him. Yeah, I just think maybe. But it’s again, he has two years of club control left. Which is why, by the way, when we talk about George Kirby, I think it makes sense to wait on Kirby, not trade him this year, because if he bounces back and he has a pretty good year, or even if he has a breakout year, which would be nice. Uh George has kind of plateaued a little bit uh recently. If he has a breakout year, well, then I have two years left of that guy, I can still cash in on his dominance, and I’m not selling low on him. Uh, so I I think the con is is that you would be selling low on Kirby without a reason to. Uh, and I don’t know if there really is a pro to trading George Kirby because I think you’d still get a good haul for him, but you’re not going to get, you know, what you would have gotten if Kirby had come out and had a a better year. Uh, and you’re probably not going to get significantly less than if you just wait a year. hope Kirby breaks out or or you know stays healthy uh this year and and you get probably more than you would even with less club control because he’s broken out and he’s proven it and he’s coming off of a good year. So I actually think the you know the argument for trading Logan is that this is probably the most you’re going to get for him if you ever trade him. The argument against trading Kirby is that well if you wait a year you’ll probably get more. So, it’s kind of a weird thing where it’s like the club control matters here. And also, I think, you know, the pro to trading Kirby in general is that I think Kirby is the least likely of these four to sign an extension. And again, that’s guessing on my end. Uh, so, but I do think I I have found that that to be fairly consensus, like the idea that, hey, which one of these guys is the least likely to sign an extension with the Mariners? I think Kirby would be the the winner there. if you asked a hundred like content creators and reporters and and all that like and they were honest with you, they’d probably I think Kirby would be the overwhelming favorite there. So, yeah, some interesting uh pros and cons with both Logan and and George. I think ultimately, again, I wouldn’t trade Logan. I would try to extend him and I wouldn’t trade George this winter because I think you’re selling low on on him and and I don’t think that there’s a significant difference between trading him this winter and trading him next winter. I guess we could also package Bryce Miller into this conversation into that same conversation because is there a pro of trading Bryce Miller coming off the year that he’s coming off of? Um, well, let’s see. He’s got the most club control. Or does he and Woo have the same? I think he and Woo have the same. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, but he’s not as good as Woo. Or he doesn’t have the track record of Woo. He’s also you’d also be selling low on him. I guess the pro is is that like you just went through most of last year without Price Miller and it really didn’t cost you much because you still went to the ALCS. you were eight outs away and and Miller really didn’t contribute in the regular season at all. So, I think that’s probably the pro is that like you kind of already seen what life is like having to use Logan Evans and Emerson Hancock to to try and fill in for Bryce Miller and you already thrived as a team under that condition. Would it have been better if they had Bryce Miller all year? Yeah, of course. Absolutely. But like it still didn’t prevent you from from getting where you went. So, and I Bryce was obviously a huge part in the playoffs, but again, for the regular season, the Bryce Miller injury really didn’t cost you that much in the grand scheme of things. And so, you kind of seen that you can survive without this guy. Uh, so I think that’s probably the only pro of trading Bryce. And also that you’d probably get something pretty interesting for him. But I don’t know if you’re going to get again, it’s just wait a year, have him be healthy, and you’ll probably get more next winter if you just wait one more year. Yeah. Like the only thing that I would be interested in trading Bryce for right now would be, you know, a position player that’s basically Bryce Miller. Right. Right. And can I do that right now? I don’t know. Like would you trade any of these guys for Jiren Durant? three years of Jiren Durant because that’s a guy who is like a three four- win player. He’s got three years of club control left. It’s sounds like he’s almost certainly getting traded this winter. So, uh the Red Sox obviously they just acquired Sunny Gray, so maybe this doesn’t matter at all, but just in theory, like would you trade him for would you trade any of these guys for Durant or a player exactly like Durant on another team? I think Bryce. Yeah, I don’t think I would. So, the other thing too that I’m, you know, I say you would, but like take Luis out of here. Yeah. Yeah. But just to to to clarify on like what I mean when I say trading for a position player that’s like Bryce, I’m talking like that’s like Bryce before 2025, like how we view Bryce and 2023, 2024. Yeah. Yeah. Um I just don’t I don’t know if that’s possible. I I would consider I would heavily consider the the Jiren Durant thing. Yeah, I don’t think I would. It wouldn’t be bad if they did it, but like also you got to keep in mind Bryce is making league minimum. Mhm. Durant’s making 78 million bucks. So, sure. Uh yeah, you’d almost want the player to be also, you know, roughly the same. Like you’re looking for essentially Michael Paneda for Jesus Montero. You just hope this time around you get the better end of it. uh than the last time you tried to trade like that. But that’s essentially what you’re looking for. You’re looking for, you know, a young all-star quality pitcher for a young all-star quality hitter. Yeah. The the the the most popular one has been Westber. You know, Jordan, Bryce Miller for Jordan Westber, right? Which I think I would do that. Yes. But I would do that. Yeah. Yes. I wouldn’t do Woo. And I think that’s kind of where the Orioles would be. So, uh, in terms of like how I would rank them as my trade preference, if I were like I wouldn’t trade any of them, just to be clear. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, I think you’re just better off just keeping the rotation as is and and you know, maybe adding around the fringes, which they kind of already have with with Will Cox and and Dock. Uh, you know, they kind of added to that that pile of starters that they could stash in AAA potential starters. Um, but like if I had to rank them in terms of like who I’d feel most comfortable trading, Luis Castillo is one, but you almost have to take him out in his own separate category. Uh, of the the four young homegrown guys, I would say I would say Bryce won. I guess Kirby 2 almost by default. Logan three. Woo four. The Gilbert Kirby one is is tough. Uh big part of that for me is that I think you can get an extension done with Logan. Yeah. Yeah. But also, what’s the elbow looking like? Sure. But obviously that would be factored into the extension. Yeah. And if the elbow’s bad enough for you not to want to assign him to an extension, the elbow’s going to be bad enough that nobody’s going to want to trade for him. Yeah. I I think in general though I probably have the same list as you. Miller one, Kirby 2, Gilbert 3, Woo 4. That’s going to do it for our show. Thank you so much for joining us here on the Lockdown Maris podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. For Colobby Patnode, I’m Titan Gazales. Be sure to give us a follow on Twitter at l_is. You can follow me at Titangales and Colby at CPAD1. That’s CPAT11. We’re also on Blue Sky. You can follow me at TDG, Colby at MLB Colby, and the show at Lockdown Mariners. You can also find us on Instagram at Lockdown Mariners. Have yourself a beautiful baseball day and we’ll see you next time. Peace.

Sonny Gray was successfully traded from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, despite the guaranteed $40 million Gray is set to make by the end of 2026. Does that deal suggest anything about the Seattle Mariners’ ability to trade Luis Castillo and what they could get in return for their veteran righty this winter?

Ty and Colby discuss that, then weigh the pros and cons of trading not just Castillo, but each of Seattle’s five main starting pitchers.

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Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Seattle Mariners, Mariners podcast, Mariners trade rumors, Mariners news, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, MLB trade rumors, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Jaren Duran, Jordan Westburg, Mariners rotation, Locked On Mariners, Mariners offseason, MLB news, Mariners pitching, Mariners prospects