Time to BUY Stock in Red Sox?
Let’s talk a little bit about the Red Sox. Uh, you know, we we like to identify teams at the beginning of the hot stove season that have payroll canvas that have needs that might be on an uptick. Boston exceeded expectations last year. You feel like they’re primed to make an even bigger move in 2026. Why? Yeah, because if I if I’m buying stock, I’m buying Red Sox stock right now. They’ve got financial flexibility after moving Raphael Devers. And with Bregman now coming off the books, sure they’ve got a hole to fill there, but they could sign Bregman and sign Petonzo and still be within the money of what they had on their budget this year for Bregman Endeavors. And so they’re in a great spot. They’ve got money to spend. They’ve got major league depth and surplus in the outfield that if they want to trade, people covet their outfielders. And they’ve got a terrific farm system as well. any deal that’s out there. Free agent, they could sign the guy. They could be the highest bidder. Trade deal, they’ve got major league players. If that’s what you want, you want prospects, they’ve got that, too. They can be on everybody. I love where the Red Sox are positioned right now. Uh, and they’re like a playoff team in 2025, and I think they could be really good in 26. Steve Phillips, he’s buying stock on the Socks. He’s saying big spenders, big off season, big splashes, get in now at the floor level because this elevator’s going up. There’s two dangerous things he said there. And it’s that whole term flying financial flexibility from the Denver’s trade because they have to spend if you’re believing in financial flexibility and they have not done that yet. And signing back Bregman. You already had Bregman. You don’t get credit for signing him back. I don’t give them credit. He was already here. So, you don’t get a double bonus for bringing back a player that was already here. Like, you effed up that deal then, allowing the allowing the uh him to uh walk out on it. So, you don’t get credit for that. You don’t get credit for financial flexibility if you don’t go out and spend. And I don’t factor in Bregman to that financial flexibility because you’re already paying him, don’t you? Or do you like, well, he opted out. You give him credit for signing back. They took that money and spent it. He was already on the books, but he opted out. You’re putting him back on the books. I don’t give him credit. contract, right? I I get that. Yeah. But I’m looking at this year. I don’t give a crap about the down down the road. See, the the whole point is you need something plus Bregman. When Craig Resell goes out there and says, “We’re looking to add a number two starting pitcher in a power bat.” Cool. You need that with Bregman included. If you were to add Bregman in right now, let’s call it including Bregman. Pet Alonzo for 30 million. You’d be right around 264 million. I think 284 million is the number where they should be operating right around because at that point if they get cautious and they want to go sign a guy with the QO that would be the second and fifth round pick. If you go over 284 million your first round pick gets docked back 10 spots. So if that’s the line they are looking to draw. Okay, I can understand that. But you better get close to that 284 million cuz this is your window right now. Yep. Yep. And it would be Alonzo. Like I give them credit for signing him like going to get him. Yeah, Breman would be dumb because you have to bring him back and uh yeah, go get another arm and it depends or else that financial flexibility doesn’t mean jack to you. Don’t beat him. Here’s the thing that I think I I sort of push back on and that is the idea that the Red Sox have financial flexibility is uh I’m not sure necessarily true. That’s what they’re selling you on. Um all of them. Well, no, they sold that trade on that and we called them liars. So, I didn’t believe them when they did it. I just believed it was a contract. It’s just us calling them bluff, right? guaranteed money left on it that they ultimately didn’t want to pay and they regretted committing to one particular player. They regretted giving that deal to Devs and so they gave up Devs. Yet this coming season will be a year that the Red Sox will pay Trevor Story $25 million. It’s hard for you to tell me that you’re a team, and I’m not telling you that they are saying this at this moment in time. I think we’re just responding to that clip that you’re talking about. Jordan Hicks is gonna have 12.5 million dollars coming his way this year. He’s effing useless. Masataka Yoshida is on the books for this coming year for $18.6 million. Can’t happen. I just gave you $30 million in useless players, right? And so that’s why I would tell you like the financial flexibility, is it really there? Is that a team that is put together the right way? No. Or spent the right way? They still can have the team they need to next year though without significant impacts to their draft situation or whatever it is. And to me that is enough room to work with. I do think the Jordan Hicks thing when you save that 12.5 million it does mean a lot for this year and the following year. But long term that that number de was making of 25 a.5 million year after year. You don’t have to worry about that now. So to stretch some money on to those years that’s where you should be at this point in time. Like we can draw it up where you get those two bats and you trade for a pitcher and you’re all around 280 million and that’s all plausible and people would be penciling them in as one of the main World Series contenders next year. Well, to get to what they can spend, let’s go to Alex Spear who actually wrote about this yesterday. The lead to his column for the Globe was how much can the Red Sox spend? And he’s done all the math based on a Globe analysis. When he writes that, I have to pause for a moment because when I read that line, I thought, do they all do they all get in the room? Do they they go into the boardroom and sit around the table and crunch the numbers? Do they have a full nerd team or is it Alex Spear looking at a spreadsheet? I don’t think so. I guess it’s Alex Spear. They may have one nerd. They may have like Neil Neil Collins, the the emailer. No, it’s Alex Spear. He’s the He’s the guy. He’s the assistant sliding a piece of paper across the table. Oh, yeah. If you want the numbers, Red Sox payroll. It is one of the best accounts on Twitter to use if you’re trying to put this stuff together. Listen, I’m reading a column here from Alex Spear. Would you show some respect for Korean? I have a ton, but no offense. All these numbers have been outlined. You can find them whenever you need them. I like to watch you and play catch. I like to watch Alex play together. I love Alex. You’re over yanking some Twitter account. I’m over here trying to talk about some We used to shout out Red Sox stats. I think he’s of the same quality. What? You your little boyfriend’s follow that other account? Good lord. nerd in his basement with a spreadsheet. Can I get back to the stories later on? Based on the Globe analysis, the Red Sox payroll commitments as calculated for luxury tax purposes with about 10 million earmarked for inseason moves sit at roughly $24 million, about 40 million below the luxury tax threshold for 2026. And as he writes, the threshold isn’t a cap on spending. Instead, it comes with a tax. The Red Sox were willing to incur that tax last season. They spent 5 million on payroll beyond the 241 that was the luxury tax line, and it resulted in a penalty of about $1 million. Spending into luxury tax land, he writes, comes with other roster building impediments. Specifically, a team that spends beyond the threshold suffers a greater draft pick and international bonus pool penalty if it signs a free agent who receives the qualifying offer than a team that doesn’t. So, for example, we’ve talked about Schwarber versus Alonzo. That’s where that comes into play. You go for Alonzo doesn’t have the qualifying offer attached to him. It makes it a much cleaner transaction and there are less penalties involved. That’s all I’m going to say on that. He says, “Notably, spending4 million beyond the threshold carries an additional draft pick penalty with a team having its top pick move back 10 spots. Only once since the introduction of that penalty in 2018 have the Red Sox broached that level of spending.” But what you’re saying is to stay below that second threshold, you could see them spending somewhere in the range of $280 million on payroll next season, which means they’ve got about $80 million to spend. Do I have that right? That’s the number we’ll settle on. 80 it is. Then they’ve got 80 million bucks to spend. Can they get what they want, which as they have established is another bat, which to me is in my mind beyond Bregman. So, it’s Bregman plus a bat plus a number two. If you’re going to spend 80 million bucks, you should be able to get it done. You add 30 and 30, right? Let’s just take Allonzo and Bregman. That’s going to be the highest those AAVs are going to be. 264, you got 20 million. If, let’s paint this picture, you’re trading for Freddy Peralta or you’re trading for Hunter Green or Joe Ryan, all of that can fit. I can even say, you know what, I’ll give this to you, Beetle. Terooel 17 million projected in ARB next year. So, that would be 281. They still need a left-handed reliever somewhere, but you figure it out as you go. Okay, you could always attach a prospect that does exist, you know, to Masataki Yoshida and just get maybe eight more million off the books. That is possible. I know the Red Sox have been scared to do it for such a long time, but that is a pathway for you. I love that. I love that for them to give up the prospect to dump that 18.5 million over the next It’s 18 and a half this year and 18 and a half next year. My sinister thoughts, they got to do it again next year with that player. Yes. And the reason I kind of point to this is there’s been a lot of talk about Pete Lonzo potentially getting time at DH and could that work? the Mets, they’re already kind of leaning away from him because they want to improve their defense and he’s so hard at first. But if you wanted a pathway for say there too. Yeah. For Tristan Kasus or maybe you like Okamoto or one of these guys, you could chase after one of them as well and make this all work.
Are the Boston Red Sox poised to spend big during the #MLB offseason? Zolak and Bertrand discuss…
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