Week 12 Recap

The Texans bested the Bills in Week 12, opening up a much more viable route to make it into the 2025 NFL Playoffs.

Elsewhere, the Colts lost to the Chiefs, making the wildcard race more difficult, but at the same time carving the path for a shakeup in the AFC South division race.

The Jaguars managed a win in OT against the Cardinals, and therefore remain firmly in the playoff picture both for a wildcard spot and the AFC South title.

For some fun scenario building, the ESPN Playoff Machine is live! You can use this to play around with all sorts of game result scenarios and see what the playoff matchups and seeds can look like.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

1. New England Patriots (10-2)
2. Denver Broncos (9-2)
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)

7. Buffalo Bills (7-4)

8. Houston Texans (6-5)

The Texans are currently one game back from a wildcard spot, and 2 games back from the division lead.

Best possible position by end of week:

• 5th Seed

Worst possible position by end of week:

• 9th in AFC

According to the NYT Playoff Calculator, if everything goes the Texans way this week, they would end the week with a 70% chance to make playoffs.

If everything goes against the Texans this week, they would end the week with a 19% chance to make playoffs.

So yeah, this is an important week y’all.

Key Games:

Texans @ Colts

• Desired Winner: Texans

This is our most important matchup of the year, straight up. Momentum is on the Texans side in a huge way if they walk out of Indy with a win, as they’ll be half a game out from the division title.

Jaguars @ Titans

• Desired Winner: Titans

The Jaguars have managed to keep their record on the winning side and remain a game ahead of the Texans. Anything can happen in a division game, so let’s hope the Titans who hold the worst record in the league can manage the upset here.

Chiefs @ Cowboys

• Desired Winner: Cowboys

Yes, yes I know how many of you just cannot find it in yourself to root for the Cowboys. But if you are looking for the Texans success, a Cowboys win is pretty big here, as they’ll Chiefs have been surprisingly middling, and are right alongside the Texans in the AFC Wildcard hunt. The Cowboys as an NFC team have no impact on the Texans playoff picture, so a Kansas City loss would be ideal here.

Bengals @ Ravens

• Desired Winner: Bengals

The Bengals are near the bottom of the AFC and not currently a threat to any playoff scenario, whereas the Ravens are right alongside the Texans in positioning. A Bengals win would clear even more space in the wildcard area for Houston. It’s also a division game, so anything can happen.

Raiders @ Chargers

• Desired Winner: Raiders

Same exact scenario as the Bengals/Ravens game.

Other Relevant Games

Broncos @ Commanders

• Desired Winner: Commanders

Broncos are near the top of the AFC, and we will benefit from any AFC team taking a loss to an NFC team.

Bills @ Steelers

• Desired winner: Toss-Up, lean Steelers

This game will have huge playoff race implications, but it’s too early to tell what would be a more beneficial result. Both teams are within reach of their division, and both are right around the Texans for the wildcard spot. For now, a Bills loss paired with a Texans win would give the Texans positioning over the Bills due to their win last week.

Saints @ Dolphins

• Desired Winner: Saints

Miami somehow remains in the AFC playoff hunt. Hope the Saints kick them pretty much out of it.

Recommended Viewing Schedule

• Thursday Afternoon Game: Chiefs @ Cowboys (CBS/Paramount+)
• Thursday Evening Game: Bengals @ Ravens (NBC/Peacock)

• Sunday Early Game: Texans @ Colts (CBS)

• Sunday Afternoon Game: Bills @ Steelers (CBS)

• Sunday Night Game: Broncos @ Commanders (NBC/Peacock)

• Monday Night Game: Giants @ Patriots (ESPN)

tl;dr, Who do we want to win?

• Texans over Colts
• Cowboys over Chiefs
• Bengals over Ravens
• Titans over Jaguars
• Saints over Dolphins
• Raiders over Chargers
• Commanders over Broncos