[OC] Which MLB teams overachieve and underachieve in the playoffs since 2015? (actual vs projected playoff wins)

31 comments

1. Who could have guessed Houston would have over performed.

2. So bad we’re not even on the chart 😭

3. Where’s the Phillies at? They should be at 21 playoff wins and 839 regular season wins, but I don’t see them at that point

4. Phillies completely missing?

5. 

6. this sucks

7. The mariners are missing? They have 8 wins and I don’t see any teams there.

8. Dodgers have more wins than anybody but are still under the line. Suckers!

9. This graph makes no sense. What the hell are “playoff wins?” It’s not possible to win games in the playoffs. Next you will be telling me that some teams have won a playoff *series,* which everyone knows has been illegal for the past 30 years.

10. What are the playoffs?

11. You should repost this with the Sea and Phi added one you replied to in the comment to me on DIB.

12. cool chart 👍

13. I don’t see how you could make a correlation here. Teams can suck for 7-8 years but make 2 playoffs during great seasons and have a good record, wouldn’t that show they “over performed” despite potentially underperforming in the playoffs to their W/L record that season?

14. The Astros being an outlier is such an easy data point to Mark and dismiss

15. Rocktober is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow

16. If this is the Mets overachieving I don’t even want to know what under achieving looks like

17. Any reasoning behind choosing a logistic model over a linear one, or any other type?

18. Dodgers are beasts

19. Never knew the Giants were in Minnesota, good to know.

20. 

21. Red Sox perform at the statistical norm you’ll never sing that.

22. If this model isn’t *trash*, *can* it really be possible for the Astros to have *banged* out so many wins above expectation?

23. Validates the cardinals recent post season viewing experience, do just well enough to make the post season then get smoked

24. Playoff stats are always pain and suffering.

25. Confirmed, Royals best legitimate non-cheating team in baseball.

    (Thank you for not doing this from 2016 onward.)

26. Clearly cheating works

27. 🙁

28. Fuckin’ loser Dodgers.

29. Remove the Astros 14 playoff wins from 2017 when they were cheating (and probably other years as well) and they are probably average or below average performers.

30. The Mariners aren’t on the chart, and neither are the Phillies. They should both be on here.

31. All I see are the white sox on curve baby 😎