Week 13 Picks, Best Bets: Texans upset again? | Chris Simms Unbuttoned (FULL Ep. 794) | NFL on NBC

Week 13 Picks, Best Bets: Texans upset again? | Chris Simms Unbuttoned (FULL Ep. 794) | NFL on NBC

[Music] I wonder what Pete would do if we just gave him nothing. We should conspire to show up for one of these and just be straight by the book. So, you and I are not capable of doing that. You got to be crazy to pick Arizona in any shape, way, fashion, form, whatever the the saying is. I think that’s the saying. [Music] That was last week on the Joint Mega Pick podcast. Chris Sims unbutton at PFTPM. It is week 13. We have a separate edition that is available to you if you are seeing this and I don’t think you will see it before the Thursday games regardless. If you’re curious about what we thought about the Thanksgiving games and the Black Friday game, that’s a separate podcast episode. This is the Sunday and Monday games only for week 13. We had to work overtime on the Pix podcast this week and I’m sure our paychecks will not reflect that fact. Chris, no. No, they definitely won’t. But I don’t care. You know, it it’s worth it. It’s it’s it’s the greatest weekend maybe of the year right here. I love this weekend. You know, one it’s the Thanksgiving games. Now, we got a game on Black Friday. We got a lot of good games of college football Friday. You got Saturday big time college games. And of course, another NFL Sunday where it’s my favorite holiday and there’s lots of good football. I love this weekend. Is this your last college football weekend? It is. Yes, it is. I will actually have a day off next week, which is what’ll be very much welcomed because uh yeah, it’s it’s you know, it gets a little bit of a grind with with my schedule here and once college is off, at least I have Saturdays to myself. Does that mean next week you’re back to three days a week on PFT Live or do you need like an adjustment week or something like that? Well, since you’re kind of being a sarcastic about it, I think I’ll take an adjustment week, you know, now that you’re kind of acting and giving me that attitude. So, go yourself. All right. Thank you. Happy Thanksgiving. Uh, okay. Uh, by the way, every week this season, you can play along with us. DraftKings has set up the free $1,000 Florio and Sims pick them pool. Pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pool every week. Download the DraftKings app. Click on the pools tab and enter the Florio Sims free $1,000 pick to make your picks. And no Thanksgiving or Black Friday games in the pool. You have until Sunday at 1:00 Eastern to get your picks in. All right, week 13. No buys but four games played not on Sunday or Monday. We’re going to go straight to 1:00 Eastern on Sunday and that is when the 9 and2 juggernaut LA Rams head to Carolina. Carolina the short week flying back from Santa Clara. Lost opportunity against the 49ers to really put everyone on notice. The Panthers are a team to be reckoned with. The Rams are favored by 10 in this one with an overunder of 44.5. It’s a reunion of what once upon a time, not for very long, from 1995 through 2001, they were in the same division and played twice per year. That’s crazy. Who do you like in this in this unofficial NFC West reunion? Yeah. Right. There’s, you know, the defensive coordinator for the Carolina Panthers, Euro Evero, right? He’s he’s from the Rams and all that. So, it’s a similar defensive scheme. So, there’s a little crossover there of knowledge, right? But all in all, I mean, first off, the Rams are clearly the best team in football right now. I I that’s not even a discussion. They’re playing the best and they’re also one of the most talented. So, it’s all meeting up. I mean, they’re number one in your power rankings. You said it, right? I mean, there’s nobody you could you can put in their class right now. They could very easily be undefeated as we know. The Panthers D and all that zone they run, right? I mean, are you kidding me? I mean, McVey and Stafford and company are going to pick that apart. You saw Brock Pery, what they have six different drives of, you know, 10 plus plays the other night and chewing up the clock. Oh, five yards here, five yards here. Oh, run up the middle for four. Oh, seven yards here, six yards here. I mean, that that’s a disaster against the Rams. That’s a disaster. The Rams will pick it apart and make big plays against that. So yeah, I don’t trust the Carolina defense and anything there with that. I mean, the the 49ers again, Brock Party threw three interceptions and they still moved the ball and controlled the game like there was never a doubt. And Carolina’s offense, yeah, I just can’t buy if Carolina can’t dominate in the run game, they just they you can’t trust Bryce Young to carry the load. Bryce Young’s done a good job, but he’s not a guy here that I in any way look at as to be a top tier quarterback and capable of carrying a team in a shootout if his if his if his team is not running the ball well or if a team has to way overplay the run and now he has all these favorable matchups. So, yeah, I’m going Rams here 31 to 17. Amazing when you think about this. It is a battle of two former number one overall picks, 14 years apart. That’s funny. Stafford in 2009 and Bryce Young in 2023. One of the issues on Monday night, the Panthers just got away from the run. Rico Dowel tweeted some sort of emoji that suggests confusion. Yeah, Dave Canales told reporters yesterday hadn’t talked to him about it. What’s to say? Six carries for 38 yards. He was averaging 6.3 yards per carry. They got away from it. They got away from it. And this is the kind of game where, hey, slow the game down. Keep Stafford on the sideline. have long controlled drives and hope for the best. I don’t see him pulling it off. We almost had a bingo bango bongo. 30 to7 is the score that I have. The Rams get the win. The Rams get to 10 and two and they inch closer to the number one seed. The NFC too. What you were saying there is just they they don’t trust Bryce Young to just throw like you know just just just carry the football team in a lot of ways. I don’t, you know, again, like they they got to they need to stay patient with the runner. I should say I wouldn’t trust Bryce Young again to win the football game. I would beat to death the run game like you’re talking about, right? Teams like the 49ers, they play an eight-man front, but they’re really ready to get out of there and play pass defense because they’re like, “Oh, they’re going to see an eight-man front and they’ll they’ll check to a pass, but we’re going to play pass defense even though we look like we’re playing run defense.” The Rams will do some of those same things. Carolina has to stay patient with the run game like you’re talking about. The San Francisco 49ers also short week flying across the country going to Cleveland to take on the 3 and8 Browns. The 49ers are favored by only four and a half with an over under of 36.5. That’s the lowest of the week. Sher Sanders gets his second start. Can the Browns at home and they beat the Packers in Cleveland and they’ve played pretty well in Cleveland. Can they take out the 49ers? They beat the 49ers there just two years ago when the 49ers went to the Super Bowl. Remember? I mean, that’s where playing in Cleveland’s scary because you get a little wind. It’s a grass field and that crazying defense and all of a sudden you look up and you go, “Man, we made one mistake and we’re in a dog fight here.” Now, this is one of those games where if I talked to my buddy Kyle Shanahan, I’d go, “Hey, if you kneel on the ball the whole game, you still might win the game, right? That that’s what I would say. Like, be willing to win the game 13-6, 17-10, something like that. Don’t let Cleveland’s defense win the game. Don’t let their special teams win the game. I mean, that’s what you got to be worried about, right? the Browns offense with Shador Sanders and everything he does there. It is beyond simple. He made a few plays escaping to his right and doing that. But I think if you look at last week’s film, you can glean a little bit to why Dylan Gabriel started over Shador Sanders. Because when Dylan Gabriel took over, the system, the offense wasn’t this simple. I mean, we’re talking like it’s three guys just run a curl route or it’s just two guys run a curl route, everybody else block, right? So, that kind of shows you where it’s at. And I think the 49ers will be all over their offense. Uh, and I don’t think Shador will get out of the pocket much. I’m going to go 49ers 17 to9 here. I’ve got 49ers 24-20, which gives the Browns the cover. The rain is in the forecast for Sunday, but it’s early. It should clear out by 6:00 a.m. according to the current forecast, which we know is often wrong. Many times, especially the app on my phone, like the only weather it gets right was yesterday’s. It seems like they’re spraying the wind. So, we don’t know when it’s going to rain. The the the winds the wind speeds are 13 to 19 mph with gusts up to 34. And it looks like during the game we could see some wind gust up in the 30s. I still like the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey is a differencemaker. He’s on pace to have 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards for the second time in his career. He should be in the MVP conversation and he’s the reason why they’ve overcome all the injuries. Last year when they had injury issues, they didn’t have him. He was one of the injuries. In 2020 when they had injury issues, they didn’t have him. He was on the Panthers. He’s going strong and I think that fuels the 49ers to win number nine. All right, next up for the first of two times down the stretch, the Houston Texans at 6 and5 take on the 8 and3 Colts in Indianapolis. It’s just one of two games on Sunday where both teams are over 500. Bill Steelers is the other one. India is favored by 4 and a half with an overunder of 44.5. That overunder seems high when you consider, as someone says, the Texans defense is good enough to win games by itself. And sometimes it seems like it does. Is the Texans defense good enough to beat the Colts by itself? I I think I It’s close. It’s close. And I think we’re seeing the Texans offense has turned the corner, I think, into at least respectable area, right? I think that’s the the big thing, too. And I think it’ll even go beyond that with CJ Strad playing. Again, Davis Mills did some good things last week, but I mean, he missed a number of throws, especially early on in the football game where you’re like, “Oh my god, people are wide open. He’s not CJ Strad.” But they’ve shown now that they’re healthy at receiver with Christian Kirk and Nico Collins being totally healthy. Some of the young receivers are starting to show up. They’re starting to be able to run the ball just a little bit and protect the passer where I you’ve heard me say if Houston gets in the playoffs, they can go to the Super Bowl cuz they have a defense like the 2015 Broncos or the 2013 Seahawks or the 2000 Ravens. It’s like that for me for my money there. Okay. The other thing I just question, you know, the Colts offense is really good, but you know, when I was sitting here kind of studying, think about the game, I I do come to the conclusion a little bit that the Colts offense kind of feasts on the poor when it’s a really good defense. It it it seems like it’s struggle for them. They can’t seem to to have their way and still be the same offense when they’re playing the same quality opponent on the other side of the ball, right? Can the Colts get anything down the field throwing the ball against the Texans? I think that’s going to be hard, right? So, I worry about that. Do the Colts have enough dudes up front on the D line to pressure CJ Strad and stop the run game? Those are things I worry about. I think the Texans can move the ball. I’m going to take the Texans on the road 23-20. I think they’re hot. I’m going to take them right now. Wow. Wow. Hey, look, this is not an easy one. The Colts, the fact that they lost this past weekend, that’s going to give them an extra kick. Jonathan Taylor had an off game. They need to get him going. It is not going to be easy. I’ve got 1713 Colts, but this one could go either way. I guess I need to start believing in the Houston Texans because they did look very good on Thursday night against the Bills. They get a little extra time to get ready and they are trying to chase down the Colts and they have a chance to catch the Colts. If they keep winning, they’ll catch the Colts. They’re in third place now. A game behind the Jaguars, two behind the Colts, but they can catch them. It’s all in their control. I just think the Colts find a way. 173 and I’m really I’m really thinking about the under on the 44 and a half. I really am. You’ve got it under too. And I when you said 23-20 I thought, man, it’s a lot of points for these two teams given the Texans defense. Maybe the under is going to be a best bet. All right, the Saints at the Dolphins. Saints are two and nine. The Dolphins four-7 coming off of their buy. Miami is a six-point favorite. I have yet to pick the Saints to win all year. And I can tell you right now, I’m not going to be doing it again today. Yeah. Tell me what the final score is with the Dolphins winning. 24-6 Dolphins. You know, on the by-week, let’s The Dolphins kind of had it going before the by-week. Let’s not forget that the offense has been That’s a bad time for the by-week. I know. You got momentum like, “Oh my god, you usually want your bye-week.” No, let’s keep playing. I know you’re you’re right. I I did think about that as I was sitting here writing my notes last night about this game. But I’m going to ride that the Dolphins can keep it going on the offensive side of the ball. And I think even more impressive than that is their defense has been damn good the last five or six weeks. They’re still playing. They’re still fighting. So yeah, I just don’t trust the Saints that way. And I don’t think the Saints are going to be able to move the ball on a consistent basis. Right. The Dolphins, like I’ve said, has been really good the whole year except for two games. And it was against kind of elite defenses where I just go, the Saints aren’t that. That’s for sure. One was Cleveland. The other one was the Ravens game where they kind of messed it up and had bad turnovers. Right. I don’t think the Saints got enough here. I I’m going Dolphins all the way. Yeah, I’ve got the Dolphins in this one by the score of 27-13. And look, the Dolphins have a long way to go to even have a remote shot at the postseason. But this is about saving Mike McDaniel and bringing back two two they got to pay two 54 million next year. I think he’s going to be there one way or the other. The question is, will he have a new coach? So far so good for Mike McDaniel. All right, the 4-7 Falcons are at the 2-9 Jets. Atlanta is favored on the road by two and a half with an overunder of 39 a.5. 83% of the spread money is on the Falcons. And Chris, they are 0 and6 when you pick them to win. So they would prefer that you not pick them to win ever again. Yep. Don’t worry, I’m not going to I’m not gonna I don’t feel any better about the Falcons after last week. I’m not sitting here going, “Oh, wow.” I mean, the Saints, they they were there. I mean, they made some mistakes. You heard me laughing about it today. They had 11 plays from the one yard line and one time they got no points when they haded about seven plays at the one and then the next time they got down there and had four plays at the one and then eventually kicked a field goal. So, you know, that that’s where I don’t look at Atlanta and just go, “Oh, man. They’re they’re back on the right track here.” This is what I will say. The Jets defense is good. You’ve seen it. You saw it last week. Baltimore, they couldn’t do anything. They couldn’t do they had a hard time. And if the Jets don’t go for the ball, go for it on fourth down on their own 35 yd line. I mean, that game I feel like would have been a nailbiter, right? And with Tyrod Taylor, the Jets actually have an offense now. They do. And the Jets can really run the ball. And Atlanta can’t run the ball. So, I’m going Jets 20 to7 at home to win this one. Last week I like it at Kirk Cousins. This week I don’t like it at Kirk Cousins. I’m with you. Like I looked at this thinking, “All right, the Falcons are going to be favored.” But but why? But why? They beat the Saints in New Orleans. That’s a place they play every single year. It’s an arch rivalry and it wasn’t impressive. The Saints should have won that game. I I shouldn’t have picked the Falcons last week. I got lucky. Shamrock up. But this time around, you’re right. I think the Jets, they don’t have many opportunities to win games the rest of the way. This is an opportunity for them to win. And they played the Ravens much more close than than anybody would have thought. I like them in this one. 28-23. The Jets pick up win number three. And I want to make sure I got the score right. Yes. 28-23. the Falcons move closer to what I think is going to be a reset button when the season ends with new coach and new GM and maybe new everything in Atlanta because this quarterback strategy has become a complete and total disaster. All right, Cardinals at the Buccaneers. Arizona 3-8, Bucks 6 and5. Bucks favored only by three in this one with an overunder of 44 and a half. We’ve got the the left shoulder injury to Baker Mayfield. I assume he’ll he’ll find a way to play, get a little visit from Dr. needle and the pain will go away and he’ll go out and throw the ball and keep running like he does. The guy’s indestructible. The guy keeps going. Who do you like in this one? Yeah, I I like I mean you you how how can you pick the Cardinals? I mean, didn’t I say I mean, how can you pick them? I I I can’t pick them. I mean, I just can’t. They’re kind of like a beaten down puppy at this point. Do I think they can keep it close? Yes. But that’s like the typical week for the Cardinals mostly other than a few games here and there. But I I you know, one I I expect the Bucks with Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irvin back and all that, I think they’re going to move the ball in the Cardinals. Yes. You know, the Cardinals have again, they’ve kind of built a decent meat and potatoes football team, but they have no differencemaker or playmaker on the defensive side of the ball. And then you could say the same exact thing on the offensive side of the ball where I go, “Yeah, they’re going to make some plays in the pass game. Jacobe Purset will, but I just don’t think they’re talented enough to totally take advantage or expose the Buccaneers uh in that aspect. So, because of that, yeah, I’m going Bucks 28-24. I have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning this one 31-20. This is a reestablisher week for the Buccaneers after what happened to them last Sunday night in LA. The Cardinals traveling across the country Thanksgiving week, it’s over for them at 3 and8. It’s done. and they’re just playing out the string and the only question is does their head coach make it to the end of the season. That’s it. That’s really the only mystery left for the Arizona Cardinals. So, I think the Bucks win 31 to 20. The last game in the early window, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Nashville to take on the Titans. Jags are 7-4. Titans are 1-10 and the Jaguars are favored by six and a half after they tried to give the game to the Cardinals last week with four Trevor Lawrence turnovers. And the Titans I I’m impressed that they haven’t quit. They were down big. They fought back against the Seahawks. Mike McCoy, even though he’s not going to be the long-term coach, he has gotten these guys in a mindset where they aren’t giving up. Do you think the Titans can keep it close enough within that six and a half point number against the Jaguars? I don’t really think so. I don’t. Now, I mean, the the thing with the Jaguars is I mean, I feel like we say it every week, right? I mean, let’s You want to say it together on three? One, two, three. Will Trevor Lawrence do dump? Trevor Lawrence is going to screw something up, right? Exactly. Close enough. we were right in sync there just like our clothing. Um, but yeah, it’s it’s it’s I you know, I that’s the only aspect I question, right? I I think that the the the Jaguars offense will be able to make enough plays to to move the ball and do that. The big thing is is I I’m going to go with this is the Jaguars week that they cause a few turnovers with the rookie quarterback who, you know, ain’t afraid to throw some lasers into some tight windows. And of course, the Jaguars can pressure the quarterback a little bit and do that, too. To where that’s where I think this is a few turnovers and Cam Ward gets a little crazy with the ball. I’m going to say the Jaguars 3114. Um, I don’t feel great about that 17-point victory there, but but I I do think they’ll win the game regardless. I got Jaguars 20 to 17. I like the Titans to cover. I like Trevor Lawrence to do one or two or three or four things that he shouldn’t do that will make it harder for them to win. But they’ll get the win and move to eight and four and put more pressure on the Chiefs to avoid the tiebreaker. That would mean the Trevor Lawrence fall down twice play is what keeps the Chiefs out of the playoffs. All right, the game that I wait Oh, we’re we’re done. We’re done for this segment. I was I’m so excited to talk about the next game that I forgot we should take a break. It’s Chris Sims Unbutton and PFTPM. We’ll do the late afternoon Sunday games next. Chris Sims Unbutton PFTPM joint mega picks podcast week 13 lucky 13 or unlucky depending upon how the game goes. Why did 13 become unlucky? Right. What what was it about 13 that became unlucky? Is there an origin to that? like what what what happened there that 13 got on and just became bad luck. Pete’s gonna look it up and he’ll put it in the sheets. So, oh the 13th guest at the last supper was Judas. Oh, so that’s where 13 he ruined the number 13 forever. Must be fact then. The date was September 29, 2002. It was a Sunday night game on ESPN four years before NBC took over that package. Vikings at the Seahawks. Sean Alexander had five touchdowns that night in a 48 to23 victory. And I quit the website the next day. I quit. I’m done. That was the final straw. The Vikings suck. Post Denny Green. And this website’s never going to be anything. I’m never going to make any money off of it. I’m just wasting my time. I’m going to spend my free time doing something else. yada yada yada. Two days later, I was back. 23 years later, the Vikings are back in Seattle. They’ve been there before. They were there last year with Sam Darnold as the quarterback. And it was one of the most exciting regular season games of the year for the Vikings thanks to Sam Darnold’s late touchdown pass to Justin Jefferson. This time, Darnold is playing for the Seahawks. And Max Bromer, the undrafted rookie out of Michigan or Minnesota, excuse me, by way of New Hampshire, will get the start because JJ McCarthy is in the concussion protocol. And I’ve seen some reports this morning that Bromer is likely to start. No he’s likely to start. The moment they put J.J. McCarthy in the concussion protocol. He’s not going to play this week. I don’t He’s He’s not going to be able to practice in full and that’s a prerequisite to him playing. They’re not going to throw him to the Wolves against Sam Darnold. That’s the one game you don’t want him playing based on the way he’s been playing so far. So, it’s Bromer, it’s Darnold. It’s an 11 and a half point spread with an overunder of 41.5. It’s the biggest spread of the week. Do the Seahawks cover? Yes. Yes. And yes. Um, there’s no way the Vikings run the ball on the Seahawks, right? The Vikings pass game, as you know, is below average. I mean, with JJ McCarthy, I think it just drops down another level with M bromer, right? You know, I think the Hawks defense is the real deal Holy Field. And then I think, you know, I think the Seahawks will be able to run on the Vikings a little bit here. I think this is a tough matchup for Flores and what they do on the defensive side of the ball because the Seahawks can run the ball and they will be patient and if you don’t show it the due respect, Kenneth Walker can rip up big plays and do that and then I think with their play action pass game and you want to load the box and get in there and oh no, now Jackson Smith and Jiga is behind us or behind our linebackers to the second level. That’s where I think it kind of works against all the things that the Vikings and Flores do. I I got a 2813. I I feel like I probably should have picked it more. I’ll say 30 to 13 just to make myself feel better. Seahawks win. I got 3420. Garbage time touchdown by the Vikings to make it 14 as opposed to 21. I this look, you know how I feel about where the Vikings currently are. Is there a chance Max Bromer is going to come in and light it up? Yeah, I guess so. But even then, the Seahawks are too good right now. They’re good on both sides of the ball. The Vikings don’t commit to the run. Maybe they will a little bit more on Sunday. It just it feels like an impossible spot for the Vikings. Another loss 4-8 and they’re already done as a practical matter. And they’re closing in on being mathematically eliminated. The question is how many games is Brosma gonna get the rest of the year versus McCarthy? And then what are they going to do in 2026 to clean up their mess at quarterback? But Darnold has been great. Jackson Smith and Jigba on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards. Also, he’s at a historic percentage of the production in the passing game. It’s almost 50% Jackson Smith and Jigba. I’m surprised it’s not higher. He should be forcing his way into the MVP conversation. If they should pick off the Rams and take the one seat in the NFC, I’d be more inclined to vote for JSN than I would Sam Darnold. He has been incredible. And the Seahawks, they they are just moving in the right direction and they are not gonna stop. Especially because last year, you know, they’re going to remember some of last year and now they got Darnold and the Vikings rejected Darnold. I think Darnold’s going to have a big day. It’s going to be a long day for the Vikings and I may quit the next day. Stay tuned. If it’s 48-23, I may quit PFT the next day. Oh man. Okay. Well, I’ll hope for it. That’d be great. That’d be great to see. I’ll be back in two days. Okay. I’ll be back in two days, but I may quit the next day. Oh, okay. just for a day. All right. Either way, but yeah, listen, I hear you a lot of what you said there and I don’t think there’s any doubt. Like, I mean, I think JSN has played himself into the MVP combo to a degree. I mean, he’s played himself into where you go, wait, okay, Matthew Stafford wins the MVP. I’m not sure JSN or Jir Gibbs haven’t passed up Jonathan Taylor for offensive player of the year, too. That that’s what I think is going to be an interesting conversation as we go down the stretch here. All right, the other before we get to the big one late afternoon game that we have to check the box on, the Raiders at the Chargers. Raiders two and nine, Chargers 7 and4. Chargers were off last week after getting blown the f out by the Jaguars. They’re 10-point favorites with an overunder of 41.5. Do the Chargers get off the Schneide and get back on the right track and move to eight and four? Well, yeah. I mean that you know you know why they’ll get off the Schneider? Um because the Raiders suck. Oh, that’s right. Damn. I forgot to say that. Yeah, they’re the worst team in football. So, yeah, they’ll get off the Schneider. Now, they get a little improvement or I do think a bump with Greg Olsen taking over as the offensive coordinator there. I mean, Greg Olsen’s got more to his offense than than Chip Kelly did. So, there might be a few new wrinkles there. But, you know what I come back to a little bit with the Chargers? One, I do think they’re, you know, their offense will back bounce back after that bad showing in Jacksonville. Okay, Herbert didn’t play well. They didn’t protect well, right? They they made mistakes all over the place. And I don’t think the Raiders are talented enough, even though well coached, that they can really slow them down. And then the other side of it is, you always hear me say this, if you can’t run the ball on the Chargers, and you think you’re going to throw to win the game against the Chargers defense in that secondary, you’re you’re mistaken. You’re in trouble. And the Raiders can’t run the ball. So, I’m going Chargers 30 to 17. Okay, Pete, one thing I would like you to do, all that stuff he was saying about the Raiders sucking and being the worst team in football, clip that off and use that as the rejoin when Max Crosby is with us at the Super Bowl. Please lead off with that. But the whole Chip Kelly, Pete Carroll thing felt like an awkward arranged marriage. I had been saying for weeks, there’s no way that they’re both going to be back next year. I was surprised they fired him now. Like, why fire him now? What’s the point in firing him now? It almost felt like it was personal. Like, let’s just finish the season here. But I think Pete Carol concerned about his own status for 2026. And if I’m Pete Carol, I’m I’m too old for this I don’t want to be part of this. I thought I was coming to a competitive team. This team sucks. So, uh, it’s going to continue. 31. Wait, I got 3127. What the hell was I smoking? Yeah, I’m I I’ll go 3127. I did I get Did I bunch the wrong number? Did I not What was your pick? Mine was 30 to 17 Chargers. Did you mean to go 317? I got 3127. I think I meant 3117. Let me go 3117. There’s no way I meant 3127. There is no way in hell I meant 3127. And I wasn’t even drinking last night. Okay. Uh the last game for Sunday afternoon, the Buffalo Bills taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Buffalo’s favored by three and a half at the field formerly known as Hines with an overunder of 47.5. I have picked the Steelers to lose just once this season. And that was against the Colts. And of course, they won that day. This is a big one for both teams. If the Bills lose, they’re almost if the Steelers lose, they are. Sorry, Kristen. Yeah, but what do we got? Yeah, I I I hear you. I mean, this this is big. There’s no question about that. Um I I look at it, right? I mean, I know it’s in Pittsburgh. We got that. But I I’m I’m still don’t think Pittsburgh’s defense is any good. I mean, you saw that last week, right? So, yeah. I mean, this is an offense that again is not superstar power, but got enough of a system, can run the ball good, and also on top of that, when there’s people open, which there will be against the Steelers, the quarterback’s going to hit it and then some on some of the plays. So, I I I look at that and go, “Yeah, advantage Buffalo.” And then I still don’t look, you know, again, Pittsburgh, the way they play offense. I think this is a game that sets up. This is nice for McDermott because there’s no one area he looks at to go, “Oh, no. I have to defend this such a way or they’ll destroy me.” You know, I know I know that the the Steelers ran the ball pretty well last week. They had a few good wrinkles with Kenneth Gainwell and some the fake tush push and all of that. Yeah, that was cool. But I I gotta see more to me sit here and believe that, oh yeah, the Steelers have a real run game now. I’m I’m not going to buy into that. So because of that, uh I’m gonna go Bills 2720 in Pittsburgh. 30-20 Bills over the Steelers. And you know, since Aaron Rogers left the Packers, the Bills have been his complete and total kryptonite. They did win the game in overtime where he exited on the fourth play from scrimmage with a torn Achilles tendon, but that was against the Bills. And then last year got swept by the Bills, including the notorious Monday night Mike Williams redline game. I think the Bills will be able the Bills are desperate here. And I think the Steelers I think last week’s game against the Bears was the old Indiana Jones remove your heart and show it to you. I think that the Steelers believed they were going to oma they were going to win that game and Ben Johnson said she and I think that broke the Steelers. I really do. Now Rogers will be back but you know we’ve got these weird Aaron Rogers facial expressions and demeanors. I think it’s going to be the return of all right this ain’t my day, this ain’t my year and it’s time to go home Aaron Rogers. I think we’re going to be seeing that under the lights by the time this game gets very deep into the first quarter. The lights will probably be on from the start cuz it starts at 4:25 p.m. Eastern. Okay, that’s it for the Sunday afternoon games. When we return, prime time for Sunday night and Monday night with both the Broncos and the Patriots continuing their chase for the one seed in the AFC. That’s next on Chris Sims Unbutton and PFTPM. [Music] DraftKings Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of the NFL and new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins. Download the app and use promo code cornerback when you sign up. DraftK Sportsbook, the crown is yours. Week 13, Sunday Night Football. The Denver Broncos at the Washington Commanders. a reunion of Super Bowl 22. 22. You’re right. 42 to 10. Doug Williams up 10 10 nothing after one quarter. In those days, if you were up 10 points in the Super Bowl, it was over. Washington woke up and took the game away from the Denver Broncos. That’s a year the Vikings should have been playing the Broncos because the Vikings should have beaten Washington in the NFC Championship. But no, it didn’t happen. All right, Denver’s favored by six and a half with an over under 43.5. The Broncos were off last week as were the Commanders. Who do you like in this one? Well, I I mean, of course, I like the Broncos. That that’s not like up for debate. I mean, one, we know Washington’s defense stinks, so that’s one problem there. And then the other side is the Washington offense is really falling off. I mean, yeah, they shown signs of being able to run the ball here and there, but man, they they can’t make any many plays. they they don’t put any consistency together. They’re certainly not going to do it this week against the Broncos. I don’t expect that. So, yeah, I’m taking the Denver Broncos. Uh 30 30 to 14 in this one. You know, I don’t know why I put down 20 to 16, but I’m going to stick with it. I could see the Broncos who have been playing with their food and basically around with lesser opponents, sleepwalking their way out of the buy because they see this as a game that they should just show up and win. And we’ve seen them in these games where the vibe is we should show up and win. They still win, but it takes a lot more than showing up. So, and maybe I’m just rooting for a for a close game. Like we had Washington on SNF a few weeks ago against the Seahawks. That was bad. I know. How did we get them two out of three Sunday night was bad, right? Hey, the NFL makes the decisions and the Broncos are one of the top teams in the AFC. The Broncos have played their way into prime time. You know, it’s kind of like the Globe Charters and the Washington Generals. Think of it that way. We get to watch one of the best teams in the in the NFL do its thing on Sunday night. Okay, Monday night, the New York Giants taking on the New England Patriots. Rematches of Super Bowl 42 and 46 and also that classic week 17 2007 game that that allowed the Patriots to finish the season undefeated. The Patriots are favored by seven at home with an overunder of 46 and a half. You have not picked the Giants straight up or against the spread since week one. Yeah. And that ain’t happening now. It ain’t going to change. I’m not going to do that now. I mean, one, we we fire the defensive coordinator. I mean, yeah, I get it, but I mean, I don’t what’s it going to do, right? It’s a Patriots offense that we know can make big plays and the Giants can let up big plays. The Patriots have balance on that side of the ball. I think the Patriots are going to be a little more motivated because I think they were a little sloppy on the offensive side of the ball last week. I referenced earlier in the show all the plays they had at the goal line. They couldn’t punch it in for touchdowns and really put the Bengals away. They let them hang around. And yeah, at home Monday Night Football, 10 and two, it’s the Giants coming to town. All of that Giants in total spiral dysfunction. I think last week is just crushing to them. Uh yeah, I’m going New England here 38-20. I uh I picked this one right on the line. 34-27. So, I got to go one way or the other. And I’ll probably just go 3424. Um it’s more likely to meet the Patriots cover. Yeah. Defensive coordinator was fired. I mean, it’s a prime time game and Jameus Winston is going to be exciting and fun and entertaining. Patriots are just too good. And Mike Vrabel probably got after him for for screwing around with the Bengals last week. and making that game closer than it needed to be. It’s just amazing how good the Patriots are. And they are right in the hunt for that number one seed. And if they get the number one seed and teams got to go to New England in the postseason, God, it would be stunning if the Patriots end up in the Super Bowl. But they’re one of the teams that we have to take seriously. And I think they’ll they’ll do what they have to do against the New York Giants. They’ve got a rematch coming up with the Bills that should be interesting. They have a Ravens game coming up as well. So, we’ll see how the rest of the season goes. Let’s take a break. When we return, our best bets and Fulsome Prison Blues pick for week 13. It’s next on Chris Sims Unbutton at PFTPM. Best bets for week 13 on the Chris Sims Unbutton PFDPM joint mega picks podcast. We each take three. I’m thinking about that under and Colts Texans. I don’t know what I’m going to do. Chris, give me your first one. Okay. Well, um I’m gonna go with the 49ers first one, right? I’m a little scared here. I I don’t know if I have three that I love this week alto together, but I’m gonna go 49ers. I just feel like yeah, that Browns offense will not have enough, right? I think Shadur makes a few turnovers in this one and I think that the the 49ers offense will be just good enough to make a few plays against this Browns defense. I’m going with the Buccaneers giving three to the Cardinals. I think it should be more than that. I think the Buccaneers will win this one handily. I think the Cardinals are in fold the tents mode and the Bucks are in in nutting time as we said earlier today on PFT Live. Give me the Bucks. Damn. Yeah, you don’t want to be there. I mean, damn. When your nuts are on the chopping block, that’s a tough one there. So, okay. I think that uh I’m going to go with the Texans here. I am. You know, I’ve been riding the Texans. I wanted to make them a best bet last week on Thursday night, but kind of chickened out cuz it was a Thursday night game. I don’t If they do lose the game, they don’t lose by more than four and a half. I think they’re going to win the football game. So, I’m going to go Houston as my second best bet. You know, my second best bet is basically my protest vote regarding the current state of the Minnesota Vikings. Give me the Seahawks covering easily the 11 12 point spread. I’ll say that as well. The Seahawks are my third one. I’m I’m going to go that as well. I I got them 30-13. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s worse than that. And given the fact that you are so convinced that the Raiders suck and are the worst team in the NFL, I’ll take the Chargers giving 10 to the Las Vegas Raiders. All right. So, you’re going some you’re going some heavy hitters there a little bit with the the big point spreads this week. Uh I I’ve tried to do that in a lot of weeks and last week it bit me in the ass, right, with the Seahawks, which we’re doing again, and the Patriots game. So, uh, I hope you’re wrong on all of them except the Seahawks. Good, but good luck to you. All right, Falsson Prison Blues, that is the one pick. If we were dying in a gutter and we could only pick one game this weekend that we were sure would win straight up, who would it be? Well, who are you going to take? What’s yours going to be? Well, I’ll go Seahawks. I think I will take vote. Eat it. Vikings, you’re officially a a loser that we pick in the Falsam County Prison Blues Stadium to lose a football game. Guaranteed. That makes me very sad. Yeah. Good. I mean, why should it make you sad? You wanted to leave them for the Eagles. You wanted to leave them from the Cowboys. How about them Cowboys? Damn. How about them Cowboys? You’re at the glory hole with Jerry Jones. Glory hole. See you. See you next time. [Music] Yo yo yo. Thanks for watching homies. We are now in the NFL season here on Chris Sims Unbutton. Hit subscribe to get our weekly picks, game recaps, film deep dives, and much much more. Thanks again for watching. Subscribe, rate, review. Peace out. You know where to find us.

A week after all his needle-threading worked out for him, Florio goes right back to predicting some close scores. And a week after Chris scored a big upset, he rides the same tough defense to pull off another. Plus, will the Seahawks dominate the Sam Darnold Bowl? And can the Bills rebound in Pittsburgh? PRODUCER’S NOTE: For those looking for our Thanksgiving & Black Friday picks, we released that as a special pod on Wednesday. #NBCSports #NFL #ChrisSimmsUnbuttoned

Chapters:
(0:00) Chris is looking forward to a day off.
(2:25) SUNDAY EARLY: Rams at Panthers
(6:25) 49ers at Browns
(9:15) Texans at Colts
(12:20) Saints at Dolphins
(13:55) Falcons at Jets
(16:15) Cardinals at Buccaneers
(18:00) Jaguars at Titans
(20:55) SUNDAY LATE: Vikings at Seahawks
(25:35) Raiders at Chargers
(28:10) Bills at Steelers
(31:45) SNF: Broncos at Commanders
(33:55) MNF: Giants at Patriots
(36:15) Best Bets & Folsom Prison Blues

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Week 13 Picks, Best Bets: Texans upset again? | Chris Simms Unbuttoned (FULL Ep. 794) | NFL on NBC
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