Bears vs Eagles Picks – NFL Week 13 Friday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Bears vs Eagles Picks – NFL Week 13 Friday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the Swiss NFL week 13 run of Friday. Oh, not Friday night, Friday afternoon. Bears are on the road to Philadelphia. Awesome game here. We didn’t think this would be a such a huge game in the NFC, but this is a big one. Uh, as far as Thanksgiving, I already lost the Lions. I ended up adding the Chiefs, too, which I didn’t even uh originally have. They’re losing right now. Looking like it might not be the best Thanksgiving for me. Run had to come to an end at some point, I suppose. Uh, but yeah, hopefully get the Bengals by the time you’re watching this. Bears, Eagles in Philly. Let’s talk about it. I mean, it’s Cooper Russ 2 and a half points. I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they had the one good game against Kansas at home. When Toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some earth is flat Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very ugly. buzz off. This is going to be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, Chicago at Philadelphia. This one was at 7. Pinnacles actually got this one up at 7 1/2 now at 50k limits. Most sports books still have it at seven though, but it looks like it is creeping up towards that 7 and 12. Uh, so let’s break this matchup down. Like I said, huge game in the NFC. Both these teams leading their divisions. And obviously it’s too early in the season to to say things like that, but if this was the last week of the year, this game would be deciding who has home field in the second round of the playoffs, assuming they both won their first round matchup. Obviously, you don’t say things like that in week 13. The Bears still have to play Green Bay twice. So there there’s a long way to go here for both these teams, but regardless, this is a huge game. Both these teams sitting at 8 and three. We’re talking about a Chicago Bears team that’s won eight of their last nine football games. Chicago Bears eight- one in their last nine. Five of these wins too came when trailing in the final two minutes of the game. So they won eight of their last nine and they were losing the game in five of them in the final two minutes uh in five of the wins by the way. So yeah, this Bears team not only winning football games but finishing games, which is an underappreciated uh skill set in the NFL. I mean, you could rack up stats, you could have awesome fantasy football numbers, you could blow teams out 49 nothing, but in these games that come down to the wire, are you able to make the plays and get wins? And and so far this year, the Bears have been able to. So, yeah, Chicago Bears, eight of their last nine. Interesting matchup in this one. The turnover battle between the Eagles offense and the Bears defense. Check this out. So, the Eagles offense best in the NFL this year when it comes to protecting the football. First in giveaways per game. the Bears defense first in takeaways per game. So, something’s got to give here. And this is actually a huge part of the game, too, because the Eagles under Serriani, check this out. When they win the turnover battle, since Sirriani took over as head coach, they’re 40 and2. Meanwhile, if they tie or lose the turnover battle, they’re 16 and 21. So, if the Bears are able to force turnovers like they have been all year, that’s certainly going to put the Eagles at a at a bit of a disadvantage here. But I think the main talking point in this game is Philadelphia’s offense. What’s going on here? In their last three games, they’re averaging less than 16 points per game, 5.1 yards per play, under 40% success rate. This offense has not looked good at all. Now, they did play the Packers, the Lions, two very good defenses, and then they played an upgraded Dallas defense in a game where Dallas was pulling out all the stops. That was the Super Bowl for the Cowboys. So, it has been a little bit of a gauntlet here schedule-wise. Uh, from what I’m reading, they’re not changing play callers. They’re sticking with Kevin Patulo. There was speculation that Siri might be calling the plays or or getting someone else to call the plays. I don’t know exactly what the solution was, but there was speculation that that they might be changing play callers. That is not true. They’re sticking with Patulo. So, same play caller here for Philadelphia. You look at the seasonl long numbers and I mean Chicago’s defense 25th in success rate, 23rd in EPA per play. Certainly not a defense that scares you. They’ve had all kinds of problems stopping the run. And if this was the 2024 Eagles offense, I would say, ah, Eagles are going to average seven yards per carry in this one. But, I mean, the Eagles offense is just not the same this year. They’re 23rd in success rate, 14th in EPA per play. That dynamic, efficient rushing attack we saw last year with Saquon Barkley and Jaylen Herz just hasn’t really been there. They’re 21st in success rate per rush, 18th in EPA per rush. We’ve got tons of injuries in this game on on both sides of the ball. Uh we’ll start with the Eagles offense. Looks like we’re not going to see Lane Johnson back at right tackle. That’s not been 100% confirmed yet. Uh he I think he’s officially listed as questionable. I put the doubtful logo on here because from what I’m reading, they’re not expecting him to play. So I do not think we’re going to see Lane Johnson. Landon Dickerson also on the injury report. So another Philadelphia offensive lineman. Although from what I’m reading, it looks like Dickerson is going to play. Uh Saquon Barkley, it looks like he’s going to play as well. And Devonte Smith was on the injury report, but he’s been taken off. So Devonte Smith is going to play. So based on what I’m reading, it looks like Lane Johnson is going to be the only player here that’s actually not playing in this game. Meanwhile, on the Chicago side. All right, so brace yourself. We need to talk about the the injury situation for the Bears defense. So first of all, no linebackers. They’re all out. And by the way, their fourth linebacker, whose name is Ruben Hippoly II, sorry if I’m not saying that correctly, he’s out as well, their fourth linebacker. Now, these three guys, TJ Edwards, Edmonds, and Su, they didn’t play last week against the Steelers as well, so it’s not exactly brand new or anything, but this is a defense that’s struggling to stop the run and all of your linebackers are out, all of them. That’s certainly a concern. Like I said, the the guys who actually played in their spots, um, Tamarco Jackson is the name of one of the guys, and I forget uh, Abbang, I don’t know how to say his name, but I think that’s the other guy who played and they actually combined for 16 or seven 17 tackles, and from what I’m reading, they played pretty well. But yeah, missing your linebackers is a concern here. That’s the bad news. The good news is despite losing Tyreek Stevenson, the secondary should actually be in better shape than it has been the last few weeks. So Tyreek Stevenson is out, but Jaylen Johnson, it looks like, is coming back. He hasn’t played since week two, I believe. I think it’s it’s been like three months since Jaylen Johnson’s played a game. And then Kyler Gordon has missed the last month as well. He’s set to come back. Both have been activated off the IR, I believe. And both are expected to play in this game. So the secondary is actually in better condition. Just the linebackers is definitely a concern here. And like I said, this is a Bears defense. There was a stretch where they were playing decent defense against the run. That was when TJ Edwards was on the field. Since he’s gotten hurt again, remember he was injured earlier in the season. Then he came back, got injured again, and since he got injured that second time, they’ve played three games without him. They’ve got consistently run on 5.3 yards per carry allowed, 47.4% success rate per rush. So, they’re definitely struggling to stop the run right now with the injuries at linebacker. I would imagine Philadelphia is able to run the ball in this game. We do have to mention, like I said before, the Eagles run game has been extremely concerning. They’ve struggled to run the ball at all in their last three games and and pretty much all year they’ve been struggling to run the ball. In fact, that one home game against the Giants, it’s really the only game I can think of where Philadelphia was successfully running the ball start to finish. So, this Eagles run game hasn’t been the same. In fact, there’s even talk of mixing in Tank Bsby more to spark something in the run game. There’s a sentence we didn’t think we’d be saying uh based on what we saw last year from the Eagles, the Super Bowl run, Saquon Barkley having a career year on the ground. They’re talking about mixing in Tank Bsby to to spark something in the run game for Philadelphia. That’s how bad it is. So, yeah, the with the injuries to the offensive line, this Eagles run game doesn’t look great. That being said, I do think they’re able to run the ball in this game against a Bears defense that’s basically missing their entire linebacking core. Now, as far as throwing the ball, look, on paper, it should be a good matchup for Jaylen Herz. Obviously, we know this is a Bears defense that struggles to consistently generate pressure. They do send a lot of blitzes, but they’re not very successful at it. In fact, as a whole, they’re one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. And regardless, Jaylen Herz has actually been great at reading blitz packages. So, Jaylen Herz should have some clean pockets to throw from, even with the injuries to the Eagles offensive line. I would imagine Jaylen Herz has clean pockets to throw from in this game. There are though a couple things that worry me a bit for Jaylen Herz in this matchup. First off, he hasn’t really played that well in the last few games. If you remember, rewind a month ago in terms of throwing the football. Jaylen Herz was playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL. There were four or five straight games where he had a 120 plus passer rating. He was really efficient throwing the ball there for a month, month and a half. Last three games, he’s got an 851 passer rating, an 80.2 pass rating from a clean pocket. Not that he’s been absolutely terrible, but we’re not seeing the efficient passing numbers from Jaylen Herz that we were seeing say a month ago. So, we’ve seen the efficiency numbers dip a little bit in the last three games for Herz. And on top of that, this is a Bears defense that has been stronger against the pass. Remember, they struggled against the they’ve struggled against the run. They’ve actually been pretty decent against the pass. I’m not going to say good, but they’ve actually been better against the pass. And in addition to that, we also need to consider the weather here. It’s supposed to be a pretty windy day in Philadelphia. 15 to 20 mph winds. We just saw Philadelphia play a home game in this same building against the Lions a couple weeks back. Same type of wind. Not a crazy windy day. Not 25 m an hour, but 15 to 20 mph winds. Jaylen Herz was really struggling to throw the ball in that game. He was 14 of 14 of 28, 135 yards in that home game against Detroit. And that was against a really injured line secondary. This is a Bears secondary that just got bolstered with two of their best starters. So, as much as I think Jaylen Herz should have time to throw in this game, I don’t know if I necessarily love the matchup for him. As a whole, I I think the Eagles will be able to run the ball. Like I said, I I I’m sure they’ll be able to move the football in this Bears defense, and I’m sure Herz should have opportunities to make throws, but this Eagles offense just hasn’t been that good recently. So, I’m not sure if I’m expecting an offensive explosion here. On the other side of the ball, we’ve got the Bears off of a Bears offense against the Eagles defense. And we’ve got a pretty good matchup. These two units are pretty much dead even on paper. Uh the Bears offense 15th in success rate, 11th in EPA per play. The Eagles defense 13th and eighth. Now, I’m not really panicking based on last week’s performance. They went on the road to Dallas and like I said before, that was the Super Bowl for the Cowboys. I mean, the home game against the Eagles, their last chance to save their season. Uh the Dallas offense at home is always pretty strong as well. Uh the 24 points, they allowed 7.5 yards per play. So they really couldn’t stop the Cowboys offense. In fact, if it wasn’t for some penalties and uh a turnover, a turnover on downs, they very well could have scored more than 24 points in the game. The Cowboys were were moving the ball pretty efficiently. But remember, in the three games before that, I mean, one of those games was against Green Bay, one of those games was against Detroit. So, it’s not like they played scrubs. One game was against the Giants, but they allowed 12 points per game, 5.3 yards per play, success rate under 41%. This Eagles defense looked great. So, my mic just got cut out there. I’m not 100% sure where the recording stopped, uh, but I was talking about how the Eagles defense looked great in the three games before Dallas, and now they’re going back outdoors into the wind, into the elements where this Eagles defense is more equipped to play well. So, I’m not worried about that one game against Dallas, one bad defensive game against Dallas. I am a little worried about the safeties though. Makuba’s out. He got banged up in the Dallas game. And Reed Blankenship also got injured in the Dallas game. Now, from what I’m reading, Reed Blankenship should be playing in this game, but he is dealing with pain. So, apparently, he was limping. He’s dealing with a quad soreness or something. I’m not exactly sure what it is. Uh, but it looks like he’s going to play, but he might not be 100%. And look, these are two of the team’s leading tacklers, two of the most important players on the defense in terms of limiting explosive plays. I mean, your safeties, that’s what keeps a six-yd play from becoming a 30-y play. If they’re missing one, the other one’s hobbled. The reason I’m bringing that up, by the way, surprisingly, the Chicago Bears, one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL this year. They’re actually sixth in the NFL in explosive play rate. And the Bears are coming into this one fully healthy on this side of the ball. It’s the defense that has injury problems. The offense is fine. Braxton Jones is still out, but he’s been out since like week three. and and the guy that got playing there at left tackle instead of him, he was banged up, but he’s good to go. Benedict, he’s not even on the injury report. So, Bears offense is in good shape. And if the Eagles are hobbled at safety, there might be opportunities for Chicago to to rip some big plays off like they’ve been doing all year. Now, we have seen this Bears offense come back down to earth a little bit now that they’re seeing some tougher defenses. There was a fivegame stretch where the Chicago offense, they look like one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. They played the Commanders, the Saints, the Ravens are okay. Uh the Bengals, and the Giants. So, they had a fivegame stretch where four of the games were against the some of the worst teams in the NFL. May have been juicing their numbers up a bit. In their last two games, they saw Minnesota and Pittsburgh certainly a step up in terms of defensive competition. Now, the offense didn’t look bad. 5.2 yards per play isn’t great, but success rate is still over 46%. So even when they saw some tougher defenses in Minnesota and Pittsburgh, obviously they won both of those games and they were finding ways to move the chains. So the Bears offense maybe not quite as good as their their year-long numbers show because they had a stretch against some really bad defenses, but this is an offense we need to respect. And look, we’re talking about the Eagles pass rush in Philadelphia. The Eagles pass rush also is much better than these numbers show since adding Jaylen Phillips and bringing back Brandon Graham. Although I don’t think Brandon Graham’s going to be available. He he got injured. I don’t think Brandon Graham’s playing in this game, but since bringing those two guys to the team and address their weakness was, which was the edge rush, this Eagles pass rush has been really strong. Caleb Williams, he is a guy that tends to hold on to the football. He’s also struggled with pressure. Although, we do have to point out he’s been much better with it this year. I mean, last year he was taking so many dumb sacks, making mistakes. I mean, he was extending plays, but he wasn’t doing anything with it. He would extend the play to make a mistake. That’s what last year Caleb Williams was doing. This year he’s extending place and actually making throws. So he’s been significantly better handling pressure this year. He definitely makes significantly smarter decisions. Without a doubt though, the Eagles pass rush is a really tough matchup for Caleb Williams. It comes down to this battle right here, the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball. The Bears offensive line against the Eagles defensive line. You you might not think it just by looking at the two team logos, but this is actually a close battle. The Bears offensive line, they’ve been excellent at generating push in the run. They’ve actually done a great job giving Caleb Williams time to throw. They’re actually first in the NFL in time to pressure this year. So, this offensive line has played great. I mean, on the road in Philadelphia, do I think they’ll have the same success against Jaylen Carter and the Eagles defensive line? Probably not. But, this Bears offensive line can put up a fight. Don’t be surprised if the Bears are able to run the ball a little bit in this game. Again, I’m not expecting an offensive explosion. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears are able to run the ball a bit in this game. Now, when it comes to Caleb Williams throwing the ball downfield, I mean, on paper, it’s a decent matchup. The Eagles have been vulnerable to downfield throws from time to time this year, and Caleb Williams has actually been excellent throwing the ball downfield. Over 14% of his pass attempts this year have gone downfield, and he’s got a great passer rating throwing the ball downfield, but I’m not sure how much the win plays a factor here. Also, the Eagles pass rush is certainly not going to give him a ton of time for downfield routes to develop. So, I’m not sure how much of this will be here for the Bears. I would expect a really conservative game plan here from Ben Johnson with the injuries to the defense. You got to think the Bears want to run the ball, hold on to the football as long as possible. Give that def give that defense an actual shot at playing a good game. So, I think we’ll see a pretty conservative game plan here from the Bears. I I did bet this game. I’m on the Bears plus seven. Full disclosure, though, when I placed this bet, I didn’t realize the Bears injury report was going to be this bad. I kind of hoped they were getting one of those linebackers back. I didn’t realize they were all going to be out and then another one was going to be out. So when I placed the bet, I didn’t realize it was going to be this bad. I took Bears plus seven. I was pretty confident that I would close at 66 and a half. But still, even with the injury report, I don’t think I’m in terrible shape here. I mean, how many games have the Eagles won comfortably this year? I mean, they’re sitting at what, eight and three. They’re towards the top of the conference. They’re one of the best teams in the NFC. But how many games have they won comfortably where you’d be completely cool laying seven with this team? The answer is one. Week eight home game against the injured Giants they won 38-20. Other than that, every single one of their wins was by seven points or less. Not that that’s necessarily an edge or really not that there’s necessarily anything to take away from that. I’m just saying the Eagles, even when they are the considerably better team, which we’ve seen several times this year, they’re still not really beaten up on teams. The Bears don’t turn the ball over. They’re going to run the ball. They’re going to do all the things necessary to to keep from getting blown out. Yeah, I I think this is a close game in the fourth quarter. So, I’m on Bears plus 7. I don’t necessarily love it, but I did bet it. Thanks for watching. Live shows at midnight Eastern time. As always, if you’re able to make it, would love to see you in the comments. Make sure you bet responsibly. See you tomorrow.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdown and picks for the Week 13 Friday Night Football game between the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles.

This is not betting or financial advice. This video is for analysis and entertainment only. If you’re gambling, please bet responsibly.

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