MLB RUMORS: Are the Mets FAVORITES for Framber Valdez? | Brewers Are Looking to CUT Payroll

There’s a rumor out there that the New York Mets are the favorites to land top free agent starting pitcher Frank Amber Valdez. You are Locked on Mets, your daily New York Mets podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. Hello to all you amazing Mets fans. You’re listening to Locked On. Mets, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Thank you for making Lockdown Mets your first listen every day and thank you for making Locked On the number one sports podcast network. On today’s show, we got a rumor to discuss or a couple of them. In the first segment, we’ll talk about the report that was out that the Mets are the favorites to land Framber Valdez. I’ll go through where that report comes from, if we should buy into it, and if Framber is a good fit for the Mets. Second segment, we’re going to talk about what is a fair contract for Framber. How far should the Mets be willing to go? Then in the final segment, we’ll talk about a rumor about the Brewers, who apparently are fretting over payroll, which could open the door for a team to trade for their ace, Freddy Peralta. Before we get to any of that though, I’m your host, Ryan Ficklestein. I’ve been covering the New York Mets on this show since the 2019 season. This is the number one daily podcast on the New York Mets. If you want to find any of my written work, you can do so over at justbaseball.com where I work as the editorinchief. Today’s episode is brought to you by Fanduel. Right now, new customers bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you already get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download Fanduel today. So, typically I would not do an entire show center around a report by Hector Gomez. No shots fired at Hector Gomez. He actually follows me on Twitter. I follow him as well because you never know. Sometimes Hector Gomez does have reports. Sometimes he does come out with stuff that is true and you can actually go to the bank with his information. A lot of times it might not be the greatest source of information, but I think it’s a great jumping off point here to get into a conversation about Fern Valdez, who right now is the top free agent starting pitcher. And this report that was out there is that the Mets are the favorites to land him. So what he says, he puts out a tweet about Framber Valdez and his place among starting pitchers over the last five years. First in wins with 68, fifth in innings pitch 92 and a3, fourth in RA 3.21. Somebody comments on it. I hope the Mets sign him. They need him. He then quote tweets that comment and says the Mets are the favorites. to sign Framber Valdez. It’s expected that they will sign him for six years and $200 million. So again, what is this report, if we’re going to call it that? It is reporting that the Mets are interested and perceived as the favorites and there is a contract figure that’s out there. How could Hector Gomez get that information? Well, Hector Gomez at times has some sources of course within the community of Latin American baseball players. Famber Valdez from the Dominican Republic. There could be a connection to Frambur’s agent and maybe that is what he is seeking on the market. Maybe he is seeking a six-year $200 million deal. But I want to focus on the contract more in the next segment. Is remember worth that? We’ll go through it. But first, should this be the pitcher that the Mets sign and make their top priority this off season to bolster that rotation? If you sign a top free agent, one good thing is you don’t have to trade for a starting pitcher and you can preserve some of that prospect capital. The Mets might now be in the market for an outfielder. So, if they do want to make one big trade this off season, maybe it’s a trade for a Jiren Durant or a Byron Buckton to complete their outfield and then they sign a starting pitcher. Maybe they think that the pitchers that are available in free agency are higher impact arms than what’s available on the trademark because if Freddy Peralta is not available, which he might be, and we’ll talk about that in the final segment, if Trick Scooble is not available, then you’re talking about Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantra, maybe Pablo Lopez, McKenzie Gore, and with those arms, there’s a lot of volatility. McKenzie Gore has been up and down. had a great first half, terrible second half. Pablo Lopez was hurt last year a little bit. Joe Ryan is going to cost an astronomical haul to land him. Saniel Contra is coming off a brutal season, a great second half, but largely a brutal season. And the Marlins right now are apparently one of those teams like the A’s last year who have to spend. The Marlins and the Pirates are both trying to spend to avoid grievances filed by the players union. And so are the Mars going to take the one real contract on their books and ship it out? I don’t know. So with all of that said, when you start to poke holes in the trade market and then you look to the free agent market, who would you like more than Framber Valdez? I’ve made a case already for Michael King. I think the upsides there. And what I like about Michael King is because he only pitched about half a season this past year, in my mind, he’s not going to get a five-year deal. In my mind, he still is going to want to hit the market again when he’s not encumbered by the qualifying offer after a full healthy season where he could get a contract like the one that his teammate or former teammate just got in Dylan sees. I don’t think there’s $210 million waiting for Michael King right now, but a year from now, if Michael King puts up a repeat of his 2024 season, and I’m sure he thinks if he’s healthy, he will, there could be that $200 million paycheck coming a year from now for King. So that’s why I like Michael King because I think you can get him on a shorter term deal. Zack Gallon is another option on the market, but he had a down year. Ranger Suarez, I don’t love in my eyes a little bit of a lack of upside. I don’t think he’s the innings leader that the Mets need. And so because of that and the fact that he’s going to get the five years, I think I’m not as in on Ranger. So once you start to, you know, knock down some of those free agent cases, you look at Tatsuya Eime, that’s another pitcher coming from Japan. You have to wonder about how he’s going to translate. Is he going to be able to step in and be a frontline guy immediately? Maybe not. And also, I think more people project him to be like a really good number three rather than an ace. So then you get to the case for Framber Valdez. Framber Valdez has been the Astros ace and he’s been a good one. Look at what he has done year over year over year. You go back to the 2021 season. Makes 22 starts. First time in his career that he actually made over 20 starts at 27 years old. Le bloomer in 134 and two third innings pitch. He had a 3.14 RA. The next year he makes 31 starts, gets over 200 innings. It was 201 and a third. Probably the best year of his career, a 2.82 RA. follows it up in 2023 with 31 starts, 198 innings pitched, 345 RA, misses a handful of starts in 2024, still makes 28, still gets up to 176 in a third innings pitched at a 291 RA. And then this past season makes all 31 starts, 192 innings pitched, a 3.66 RA. If you are looking for innings, which you think I would think the Mets are, big check mark for FM Valdez. If you are looking for run prevention, big check mark for Fiber Valdez. If you’re looking for a guy that complements this new infield defense you just built by trading for Marcus Simeon, how about get the guy that is consistently among the ma the best in Major League Baseball and ground ball rate. This past year, his ground ball rate was 59.4%. And if you’re almost rolling a ground ball 60% of the time, that is an unbelievable mark. And that is what Fran Valdez does. He has one of the best sinkers in baseball. And with that, he can just attack the strike zone. He’s not going to walk a lot of guys. He’s, you know, going to get his strikeouts. Not a ton, but he’s still striking out close to a batter per nine. It’s been over eight and a half pretty much every single season for the past four years. So eight and a half per nine is a pretty good strikeout rate. He’s just a good pitcher. And there was a streak last year, I wonder if I can find this really quick, where the Astros were just winning every single one of Framber starts. Like all every time Framber took them out at this point in the season where the Astros started to surge in the standings and get back towards if not to the top of the AL West after what I believe was a little bit of a shakier start. But Framber, who again started off the year and was just okay, but then he gets on this run. It was his a start of the season when it began. Look at the innings pitch. Seven innings pitch, eight innings pitch, seven innings pitch, six innings pitch, complete game. Seven innings pitch, five, six, seven, six. He’s just out there eating innings doing his thing. There was a run from May 7th all the way through until July 28th where he did not lose a game until he finally lost a a two to one game to the Nationals. And actually I don’t even think he lost. He gave up one run in a game and he did not he was not the losing pitcher of that game. His team won one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 13 games in a row when Fran Bber Valdez started and he earned decisions in counting here four, seven, eight, nine in 10 of those 13 games. He was 11 and four after that streak. And there was a run there where he actually himself earned a decision and won six consecutive starts. The more you look at it, more you think about it, who is the best pitcher the New York Mets could add for the upcoming season if Terrick Scooel and Freddy Peralta are not available? I actually think the answer probably is Framber Valdez. This guy is in a lot of ways exactly what the New York Mets want. But there’s a couple of things that you have to put in there as a caveat. For one, how do the Mets view what happened with this catcher? And I think this is why Framber Valdez had to go to the GM meetings this year. He went with his agent and I think it was just to get him in front of teams and say, “All right, explain what happened when you crossed up your catcher seemingly on purpose and drilled him in the chest.” What was that about? And who knows what his answer was and who knows how teams bought into that. But that’s one thing that is this little cloud that’s hanging over him. The other thing to mention is he has been a little bit of an inconsistent postseason performer. There have been good playoff runs, particularly if you go back to the 2020 season. In the postseason that year, 24 innings had a 188 RA. But in 2021, he made five starts, had a 778 RA. 2022, I believe the Astros won the World Series that year. He made four starts. He had a 1.44 RA. 2023 made three starts and an RA of nine. And then 2024 he had one start erra of 623 um on fang grass. It’s tough to find exactly how many earned runs that was. He gave up three earned runs in that start and four and a third innings pitched. Uh so he’s been in the postseason a lot. He’s had a couple of good playoff runs, but I wouldn’t call him maybe a great postseason pitcher like I think some might attribute towards him just because you remember, oh man, 2022 he was great. It’s been a little bit up and down. This is still a really good pitcher. I think it just comes down to years contract and other options that are out there. So, we’re going to talk about the contract and how else the Mets could spend if it’s not on Frambur. So, just kind of looking if that price tag that Hector Gomez, you know, tweeted out there, is that something the Mets should be in on? We’ll go through that in just a minute. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA’s back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. 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So, the contract that Hector Gomez tweeted out was a six-year, $200 million deal. Is that fair market value for Framber Valdez? I think it’s close. I do my own projections on every single uh free agent or all the top free agents in the market each year for justbaseball.com. I go through I have a couple people that work with me on the predictions overall, but we we look at we try to set different contract ranges first and foremost. And then I end up narrowing it down and trying to to get to what I think is a fair contract for the player. And then as free agency goes on, we update the predictions and I add free agents onto the list. But we start off with the top 20 free agents in baseball. and Framber Valdez, I believe, came in at number six, one slot behind Dylan C’s. If you look at our contract range that we had on the site, it was 28 to $35 million per season. Shorter term, you’re going to get more money on the average annual value. Longer term, that AEV is going to dip down because you’re getting a greater total amount of money. If Valdez was able to get a seven-year deal out of somebody, I do think that you’d be looking a lot closer towards that $28 million range. because he’s going into his age 32 season. I really don’t think he gets that long of a contract. And I personally predicted he would get a 5-year deal for 160 million, which came out to 32 million per. So, if this report was accurate, and this is, let’s just call it the asking price for Fiber Valdez. Maybe not what he signs for, but let’s say this is what his agent is floating out there to sign for. We want six years, 200 million. Somebody’s going to meet that price. He’s the top starting pitcher on the market. and Dylan CE just signed for 210 million. The difference was Dylan CE’s contract was over seven years and he’s a couple years younger going into his age 30 season, not his age 32 season. So that’s where I think it ends up falling back to a five-year deal. But if it is a six-year deal, I don’t think that him getting 30 million per over six years is crazy. I think him getting $33.33 million per over six years is a little bit steep when you look at the rest of uh the starting pitching contracts out there and you compare Frammber to some of these guys. Zach Wheeler has the highest AV right now at $42 million per. I think that was a three-year extension he signed with the Phillies. Jacob Deg Grom 37 million per. Uh pretty crazy. the the two highest paid pitchers in baseball next season. Wheeler Deg Grom, how about that? Uh Blake Snell 36.4 million. Garrett Cole 36 million. Corbin Burns 35 million. And then you drop to Dylan CE at 30 million. Then you have a bunch of guys in that 27 to 28 million range with Garrett Crochet, Tyler Glass, now Max Freed, Yoshino Yamamoto, and Carlos Rodon all sitting uh in between those numbers there. Now, the top fridge starting pitchers last year were Snell and Burns, and they both got over 35 million, but Snell got that over five years. Burns got his over six, and they were, I believe, both younger than Forever. So, I don’t think they quite get over 35. That’s why I think that over 30, but under 35 does make sense. I I just stop short at the six years. Honestly, the AAV of 33 million per or 33.33 million per, that’s really not bad to me. It’s just the six years. So, if you told me you can get Framber for five years at 33 million per, so let’s just call it uh 165 instead of the 160 that I projected, I think that that’s fine. It’s just a matter of committing a sixth year to Framber that I would be a little bit hesitant on. To me, fiveyear deal is perfect. you’re talking about age 32, 33, 34, 35, and 36. Doesn’t feel like too long of a contract. And I do understand the value in what Framber brings when it comes to just the sheer workload that he’s going to take on. Uh the fact that he has maintained an erra under four for this many consecutive years. And this stuff is not taking back whatsoever. His velocity has still been there. He averaged 94 miles per hour on the sinker this past season. He still has a really good curve ball and he mostly works off of those pitches with a good change up mix in as well. And then he has a slider that he’ll occasionally throw in a four seam. He’ll also occasionally throw. But mo most of the time you are looking at sinker, curveball, change up. When he faces lefties, it’s more just sinker, curveball. Righties get all three pitches that that are mixed in there. He’s a really good arm. I I I think even if you signed him to the six-year deal, I’d just be happy that he was part of the Mets rotation in 2026. He wasn’t my top free agent target. He wasn’t a guy that I was looking at as a clear-cut fit for the Mets because I personally have always felt that it was going to come through Trey that the Mets were going to pick up that starting pitcher, whoever it is that signed into the rotation. And I just thought they’re probably going to spend on keeping Diaz, filling out that bullpen, resigning Alonzo, and then they will take the prospects and get a starting pitcher. But you can hold on to your prospects, use those prospects to address your roster in a different way, and you can just sign the best starting pitcher that’s left on the market. And I do think again, if you are trying to find the most dependable arm that you can add to this rotation for the upcoming season, it is Framber Valdez. It is it’s it’s a guy that is going to make his starts. He’s going to get his ground balls. You have a defense behind him that can really support him, which is key. And he has the postseason experience where he’s not going to be phased pitching in a big game. Is he the best option to pitch in a big game? Do I think that if everything was equal and they’re both 100% healthy and at their best in October, who would I rather have on the mound for me, for Amber Valdez or Michael King? I might take Michael King. I think that the stuff might be a little bit better, but there is something to be said about the guy that’s been durable, the guy that is the type of pitcher who should age relatively well when you just consider the fact that he’s a lefty with a great sinker. and that typically is going to play for a long amount of time. I I don’t hate the idea of the Mets being in on a forever whatsoever. I hate the idea if I hate the idea, but I don’t like the idea of them signing him to a six-year deal. But if I’m okay with a five-year deal, then should I lose too much sleep over a six-year deal when it’s not my money and the Mets can always get out of any bad decision they make because they have Steve Cohen? I I think that that is true where you know what’s that old selling the old saying, right? Who said it? Was it what GM was it? Was it Theo Epste? I think I’m probably attributing to somebody else. Him Bloom. I don’t know. There there was some executive that said uh you know if you’re realistic with every free agent, you’re going to finish third every time. That might be the case here. It might take the six year to get it done. And if you believe for Valdez is the pitcher that can lead you to an NL East title in 2026 and potentially beyond that, then maybe that’s the guy you invest in. I I think it’s going to be interesting to see how his market develops now that CES has gone. Is it a quick ramp up where he signs this week or is that just a Hector Gomez tweet on Thanksgiving that we never even think about again and then four weeks from now he signs with the Giants or something and there’s never any inkling that he’s going to the Mets. I thought it was an interesting enough report or rumor because it allowed us to talk about Ferra Valdez, who’s the one of the top starting or the top starting pitcher left on the free agent market right now, who clearly would fit the Mets in, you know, a couple different ways where it would make sense that they would go after him. I just think if you’re going to invest in one contract, one guy is going to get the long-term deal from the New York Mets to be a part of this rotation as you build a young core around him with your top prospects. I don’t know if that’s the guy that I want to be all in on for the next half decade or even beyond that. Instead, I might want to be looking towards Milwaukee with with Freddy Peralta. We’re going to talk about the report that’s out there that they are not as comfortable with their payroll as maybe they suggested at the beginning beginning of the offseason. So, we’re going to go through that to close out the show in just a minute. If you’re an everyday that always tunes into the show, make sure you become a Locked on Mets insider. This is our texting service where we get updates from me anytime news breaks on the Mets. You can ask me questions anytime, take part in our locked onto Mets sign photo giveaways and a live graphic sent to your phone each day so you know the starting lineup without ever having to go on social media. You want to be a locked on Mets insider, find a link in the episode description or you can go to subtext.com/lockedonmmets. Now the athletic posted a notes column uh the other day that actually the headline was the Mets. Uh the headline is how the Mets could replace a neosiz hole or neosized outfield hole and more. The second story is about the Brewers to just tell you what the Mets story was about. And this notes com was written by Will Sammon who does cover the Mets, Ken Rosenthal, who covers all of Major League Baseball, and Katie Woo, who covers the Cardinals. There’s some notes about the Cardinals at the end with the Sunny Gay trade. if they’re still gonna try to move Nolan Aronado. Not really stuff that pertains to the Mets. But when it comes to the section on the Mets, what they’re talking about is if the Mets would really dive all in on a corner outfielder in free agency like a Kyle Tucker or a Cody Bellinger. I’ve already talked about this on the show, how I’m not entirely sold on the idea of the Mets actually splurging and getting into another very long contract with an outfielder when they just got out of one. Part of me thinks that they might prefer to leave that playing time open for their top prospects and that’s sort of what they talk about in this article. Also, you know, they mentioned that they could explore trades and we’ve gone through the names there. Jiren Durant, Byron Buck, guys that only have three years of control that are a lot more affordable than what it would take financially to sign a Bellinger or a Tucker. They mentioned in this piece that the Mets could consider stop gaps um high upside stop gaps, whatever that looks like to the Mets in left field um or in a corner outfield spot. Regardless, I want to get into the Brewers side of this thing. This is pretty fascinating. So, how the Brewers could create payroll flexibility. They mentioned in this story that the Brewers are fretting are starting to fret over their payroll because if you look at their projections uh through fan graphs, their projected payroll for this upcoming season is $136 million. Now that is not unheard of for the Brewers because in 2022, which I believe was David Stern’s last year running the team as the president, they had $138 million payroll. But you look at where they’ve been the last couple years since then. 2023 the payroll dropped to $126 million. Believe that would probably be that would have been the final year they had Corbin Burns. They traded Corbin Burns before the 2024 season. I guess maybe they got off of hater. I’m not even entirely sure where that money um disappeared from their books and and allowed them to drop $12 million. But then you get to 2024, the payroll dropped to $160 million. That is when they were out of the Corbin Burns business. Um, and then they also were able to drop a bunch of money from Woodruff because Woodruff was hurt. So they non-tendered him and then ended up resigning him to an affordable deal. Then you had this past season, $123 million was their payroll. So it seems like they’re more comfortable in the $120 to $130 million range rather than being beyond that. If you have a projected payroll of $136 million right now, but you still have some needs on your roster, you want to bring back the exact same team that didn’t put up much of a fight against the Dodgers. Well, then what do you do? There’s a couple of things. One, they can take Brendan Woodruff, who is making 22.025 million, and they can extend him for a lower average annual value. So maybe Brandon Woodruff wants to spend the rest of his career with the Brewers, and they can give him a four or fiveyear deal. Maybe he takes a team friendly discount. Maybe he takes $18 million per or $16 million per because he wants to stay with the Brewers. He wants more total guaranteed money and he’s willing to take a contract below what his market value could be if he went out, had a good season, and then hit free agency next year. But he is a little bit older. I think he’s going into his age 32 or age 33 season. But they can’t trade him because he signed a qualifying offer. You can’t trade a player who signed the qualifying offer until the middle of the season. So that makes it a little more complicated trying to slash this payroll because there’s not a lot of guys that are making a ton of money. It’s just Christian Yelich and Brandon Woodruff and then it is Freddy Peralta at $8 million. You have Andrew Vaughn projected to make $7.8 million through arbitration after a big year. Jackson Churio signed a pre-arb extension. He’s going to make seven and a quarter this upcoming season. and Aaron Ashby. They’ve also signed a pre-arm extension. He’s making 5.7. You have your closer or previously their closer because they might go with Arib as their closer now. But Trevor McIll, Tyler McIll’s brother, he’s making 4.2 million or projected to through arbitration. William Contrera is projected to make 11, although I think that is a bargain for one of the best catchers in baseball and probably not a guy that actually is on the move. So you start to go through the names and the guys that could fetch you the most that cost the most quote unquote is Freddy Peralta and Trevor McIll or I guess theoretically Aaron Ashby. But Peralta only making 8 million. They can keep them on their books and they’re going to get way more value out of that $8 million financial slot than they could possibly get in any trade. I mean, even if the Mets put together a package of great prospects, are any of the pieces the Mets will give back going to give them the present- day value this upcoming season of what Freddy Peralta could provide as their ace? And the answer is no. With that said, could they get six years of team control on someone like Brandon Sprro? Could they get a top prospect that can slot into their lineup for six seasons like a Jet Williams or an AJ Ewing or Ryan Clifford? That’s where a trade starts to make sense. I think the Mets could put on the table right now Brandon Sprro and Ryan Clifford and say here’s our trade offer. And I think that that is more than a fair deal. Ryan Clifford could be their first baseman of the future. Andrew Vaughn had a great sort of fever dream of a season once he made it to Milwaukee. He’s projected to make a lot of money in arbitration and he’s got only two years of control left. So, he’s not their long-term answer. He’s a stop gap. A good one for them if he can keep hitting the way he did at the end of this past season, but an unreliable one as well. And you have Ryan Clifford who in AAA at the end of this season fared pretty well, very close to big league ready. he can make his way up and be your first base of the future on the cheap and then mid-season you could get rid of some salary and potentially trade Vaughn if Clifford can actually come up and make that quick of a big league impact. Maybe they don’t love Joey Ortiz after a really down season. Maybe they want a better fallback plan. They do have one prospect and they have Jesus Mate who is 18 so he’s far away one of the the top prospects in baseball. But they have another shortstop prospect that I believe is pretty close. I think he’s in double. I think it’s Cooper something. Yeah, Cooper Pratt. 21 years old. He is Oh, he’s actually in triple A. Finished last year in triple A, but Jet Williams is better numbers than Cooper Pratt. Jet Williams is a better prospect than Cooper Pratt. So, if you had Jet Williams in the deal instead of Ryan Clifford, that’s a guy that can make an a big league impact in 2026. He can be your shortstop. He can be and not their second baseman because that Bryce Tang, but if Terrain went down, he could be your insurance policy there. He could help out in center field or in any of the outfield spots. And Jet Williams is a prototypical Brewers player. Scrappy, hard-nosed ball player, fast, going to steal bases, going to do things well, going to be a pesky at bat. They love him. Same goes with AJ Ewing. He’s another guy that sort of fits a Brewers mold. So, the Mets have these position player prospects that I think the Brewers would be all in on, and they can make Brandon Spur a piece of the trade, giving them a guy that slapped into the rotation immediately. The only problem with that is then the Brewers are going to next season where they’re hoping to win a World Series with Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury plague season and then a lot of question marks when it comes to young pitchers in the rotation. Jacob Mizeri has a stuff, but is he going to put it all together? Who knows? Quinn Prester had a good season, but you don’t really feel great about him starting a playoff game. Chad Patrick had a good year, but again, don’t really feel confident with him starting a playoff game. And then again, it’s it’s Brandon Sprro potentially going over. He’s just in that same bucket with all those guys. So, it’s an interesting one. Long term, it is a good trade for the Brewers to deal Peralta, have those two guys potentially come into it. But they might need some more present-day big leaguers that can help them right now in a trade so that they can address more offseason needs while they’re shedding salary. Maybe in that instance, I’m trying to think of like what piece fits for them. They don’t really have a, you know, their utility infield spots not great with Andrew Monasterio. So, do they view Akuna as an upgrade? I don’t know. It’s a weird one. It’s a weird one where I think the Brewers honestly their best bet to contend this upcoming season. Do nothing. If you can’t spend, just do nothing. Just keep Freddy Peralta and do nothing. Keep Migill. Keep Peralta. your bullpen’s great, your rotation’s good enough, when you got Peralta and Woodruff leading it with all the young guys behind them, you have a good lineup, just do nothing. But if the the payroll is too much again, maybe they make a trade and the Mets should be all in on Freddy Peralta because you could either extend him with his one year left of team control and maybe lock in a little bit of a better deal now than it would take to sign him after this season or you ride out the one-year rental. You tag him with a qualifying offer. you still potentially could resign him in free agency, but you have all of your spending available in that rotation to make that pursuit to sign TKO next offseason. So, that’s where I’m at with Peralta. But, it’s just interesting to see that they might be shedding payroll. That does open up some possibilities. The other one, training for Tyur’s brother, Trevor McIll, who has been a very good reliever. He’s 32 years old. He’s got two years of team control left. He could replace Edwin Diaz as your closer or be a high-end setup man. He has saved 51 games over the past two seasons. His career is 3.98, but you look at what he’s done the last two years. 249 RA in 47 innings last season, 272 RA in 46 and a third innings the year prior when he has been in that primary closer role for the Brewers. So, another interesting name. not making a ton of money, but maybe they just want to downgrade that salary slot, get more team control. So, a type of trade where maybe you send a Dylan Ross the other way for Trevor McIll. It might take a little bit more than that for a guy that’s been a closer, but the point is if they get somebody like a Dylan Ross or a Ryan Lambert who they can envision high leverage upside on and full team control on the cheap, that’s the way that you can pick up a reliever in Miguel that really could help the Mets. We know there’s going to be a good working relationship and a trade there between the Brewers and David Sterns. So, you can’t rule them out. And the fact that they are potentially looking to shed salary, it’s just something that could stand to benefit the New York Mets. They try to get in on some of their pitchers. So, that is the latest update on the rumors going around Major League Baseball. Day after Thanksgiving today, Black Friday shopping. You never know, things might start to pick up again on the market. And I think it’s been a pretty quick moving market compared to years past. Just the fact that we’ve gotten some big signings and some big trades so far. Of course, the NMO Simeon trade was huge. The Sony Gray trade was pretty big. You had Josh Naylor signed super early with a team that he obviously wanted to go back to. And then you had the biggest fringe starting pitcher already off the board. So, I think we could be in for a decent amount of movement between now and the winter meeting is that I’ll be covering all of it here on Locked on Mets. probably not going to do a show for Saturday, but if some type of a news item breaks or there’s a juicy rumor, you never know if I might decide to pop on. So, make sure you follow, rate, and review wherever you get your podcast. Subscribe if you’re watching on YouTube. Thank you for making Lockdown Mets your first listen every day. And thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network.

New York Mets emerge as frontrunners to sign top free agent pitcher Framber Valdez, sparking debate over his fit and potential contract demands.

Is a six-year, $200 million deal too steep for a proven innings-eater with dominant ground ball skills?

Host Ryan Finkelstein weighs the Mets’ rotation options, comparing Valdez’s track record and market value to contenders like Michael King, Ranger Suarez, and Tatsuya Imai, while raising questions about Valdez’s recent postseason inconsistencies and off-field controversies.

Key topics include the Mets’ strategic approach to building their roster, trade alternatives such as Freddy Peralta from the Milwaukee Brewers, and the impact of payroll constraints across the league.

Can New York land an ace without mortgaging the future—or will a bold move reshape their World Series hopes?

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43 comments
  1. No way 6 years or 5 for that matter. I see no free agent pitcher this off season, I would give a long tern contract to. I know that is what they need but they have to many starters already. Granted they are all 4 or 5's. [Except for McLean]
    Sign a King and make a trade for another pitcher, if possible. Peralta is making nothing why would the brewers trade him

  2. The problem with Valdez is age. Valdez is 33. It is just so predictable for pitchers at that age to drop off the cliff. Hey, give Valdez $80 million for 2 years. I know that sounds crazy, but Cohen has unlimited $$$ . And Valdez would be a great counterpart with McLean in the next two years. I’d like to see the Mets go all in now. I think locking down starting pitching is more important than position players. Bring back Diaz, re-sign Alonso, and find some competent OF, and add Valdez to the rotation. That is a dangerous team.

  3. The one that needs to be DFA"D it's Stearns, guy reminds me of the Wilpons with an extremely stiff elbow. He's gol to go…..period. This maybe my last season as a Met fan. I'm going to Opt Out and go Free Agent. If we don't win in 2026 I'll be testing the Free Agent Market for a team that wants to win.

  4. The price for a #1 was always going to make us wince.
    The evaluation, Cohen can always buy his way out of this—doesn't feel right. If Valdez's arm goes on OD and he's done, that's 200m that isn't going to be spent on other players.

  5. I like Michael King.. the problem is he is NOT a workhorse. we needed a workhorse deperately last year to save the pen. Ive been saying on here and every podcast and sny for a MONTH that framber valdez is the number one fit. Its ok to have a pitcher with balls.

  6. Ryan ive been saying in the comments for a month that framber is the best solution and fit much better than a trade for skubal where you give up Tong for 1 year of skubal or peralta. You and everyone else made the catcher incident overblown and said you didnt want him. Now all of a sudden that stearns is rumored to want him… now you think hes the best fit?

  7. Michael kings high innings was 173 and then he was injured the next year. i like him and he would be a good addition.. but he is NOT consistant like framber valdez

  8. Milwakee will want Mclean or Tong for 1 year of peralta. So shortsighted on the mets. Tong can be a 1 or 2 for 6 years of control as a 22 yr old on a cheap contract. Him and Mclean paired with framber.. and then NEXT offseason you go all in for an actual ACE in skubal or peralta.

  9. milwakee had the best record in NL… they would be stupid to trade their Ace!!! If they do.. then baseball has a big problem that they need to fix in the collective bargaining agreement.

  10. There is NO WAY milwakee takes Sproat a 5 with upside to be a 4 o 3 and ryan clifford who cant field for an ACE. They will want TONG and Benge, Jett, Baty or Sproat and maybe more.

  11. Valdez would be a phenomenal add to the rotation. The question is what the rotation behind him would be. You’ve got McLean for sure, maybe Sproat & Tong, Senga, Peterson, Manaea, Megill, Holmes, etc.

  12. I would love having 3 lefties coming at you. Especially one who is well established as a top arm. Pairing him with Manaea and Peterson who also have the upside to be dominate and stuff that plays for the defense. That would be pretty nasty but we shall see

  13. Last year was Valdez's worst season by far. He did not pitch like an ace. Trade for a younger pitcher with more upside. The Mets have the trade chips to make a big deal.

  14. I
    This should not be the concern. It should be Pete and Diaz period. That’s a lot of money for Valdez! Steve needs to focus on these 2 players! Many Met fans will be watching!!!!
    The THUMB TWIDDLER DAVID STERNS ONLY LOOKS FOR BARGAINS period! He’s a waiter waits waits etc. Steve, you need to get involved like you did with Juan Soto. I do not trust this guy David Sterns many MET FANS will be watching to see if you let BOTH PLAYERS go to another team as well as Diaz. You are the richest man in baseball David Stern, looking for bargains how does that make any sense? AND HOW CAN YOU LET OTHER TEAMS GET THE BETTER OF TRADES WAKE UP STEVIE PLEASE WAKE UP DO THE RIGHT THING HANDLE THE SITUATION ITS YOUR MONEY SIGN BOTH Pete and Diaz period!

  15. No way Stearns added a guy who could be toxic!?!? Throwing at his catcher?!? I don't buy it & I don't want it! This guy doesn't know what he is talking about. Until Jeff Passan says so, it means nothing. 4 yrs for king. No more. No less, imho.

  16. Mets front office is as leaky as an old thatched roof. That would be a fitting place for pos Valdez to go to. Trade away nice and likable Nimmo and sign 200 mil for a selfish pos

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