Per the NYT’s playoff simulator, the Bengals have a 76% chance of making the playoffs if we win our remaining 5 games. It’s unlikely we can make it as a wild card, seeing that multiple teams would need to implode weeks 13-18. Therefore, our best bet of making the playoffs is for us to win the AFC North.

For the Bengals to win the AFC North, the following would need to happen:

  1. Bengals finish the season 5-0 (obviously);
  2. Steelers finish the season 3-3 (one of the losses must be a divisional game); and
  3. Ravens finish the season 3-2 (one of the losses must be a divisional game).

In the screenshots above, I’ve highlighted in red the games that I think the Steelers and Ravens are most likely to lose.

Assuming this all happens, the Bengals/Steelers/Ravens would all be tied at 9-8, but the Bengals would win the tie-breaker based on a division record of 5-1, with the Steelers and Ravens both finishing with a divisional record of 4-2 respectively.

In terms of “must lose games” for the Ravens and Steelers:

  1. the Ravens must lose to the Bengals week 15 (to knock their divisional record to 4-2); and
  2. the Steelers must either lose their week 14 game against the Ravens, their week 17 game against the Browns, or their week 18 game against the Ravens (to knock their divisional record to 4-2).

No doubt, the Bengals going 5-0 in the last 5 weeks of the season is going to be the hardest stipulation to accomplish. That said, our Bengals have pulled similar rabbits out of the hat in the past (ie., winning our last 5 games last year in 2024).

What are your guys’ thoughts?

31 comments

  4. If we tie the steelers and both have 5-1 divisional records how does that get figured? Strength of wins or?

  5. Excellent breakdown. Assuming a win out on the Bengals part the more doable part is getting the Ravens knocked out with another head to head win and they lose one more with a pretty tough remaining schedule. A lot is riding on the Steelers and Bills game this weekend. If the next two weeks everything falls into place I think it’s a real conversation the last 3 weeks they can pull it off. Going to need the Bills and Lions to come up in the clutch against the Steelers.

  6. https://preview.redd.it/hut168xhi14g1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d005112e8086841104e334010c094508723285ee

    Just to confirm, per the NYT Playoff simulator, if the following happens:

    1.) Bengals finish 5-0 (*beating the Ravens and Browns in the process*);

    2.) Steelers finish 3-3 (*losing at least one of those games to a division opponent [Ravens or Browns]*); and

    3.) Ravens finish 3-2 (*with one of those losses necessarily coming from the Bengals week 15 and another from elsewhere*)

    …. we will have a 99%+ chance of making the playoffs 😎.

  7. This is like the reds all over again.  If a team can’t really make it into the playoffs, and somehow they do, they are out in the first round.  

  9. Aside from the Bills I genuinely do think we have the easiest schedule in comparison to the Steelers and Ravens.

  10. I always loathe this time. Month straight of losses then the team figures it out for one game and the road to playoff predictions starts.. then the cycle starts again.

  11. Bills are wishy washy right now. That’s kinda the thing about this conversation because the AFC is in complete disarray

  13. If the Bills beat the Steelers on Sunday this immediately becomes a lot more viable IMO. If we get all of: Bills over Steelers, Bengals over Bills, and Ravens over Steelers (IMO, but this one can be debated) by the end of next Sunday, I’ll start to let myself seriously believe

  14. Assuming we win out, Ravens losing one more is all but guaranteed with their schedule, so it’s really all on the Steelers. One game back and we already have hope again I love life

  15. We have won our last two against the Bills, and Burrow is on an 8-0 winning streak in games in which he was the starter dating back to around this time last season.

  19. 4-8 one of the worst defensives of all time and yall are trying to make a playoff run. Every year this fan base never gets it. Every single year. Yall are going to finish 8-9 bring every single person back in the organization use the record down the stretch and injuries as excuses and next year yall are going to be 4-8 and in the same exact situation. Bengals need to tank get a top 10 draft pick put pressure on the organization to make changes in management not hang around mediocrity while the owner gets even richer. Btw the most profitable record for a franchise is always around .500 keeps the fan base involved don’t have to pay out of pocket for playoff games. Speaking as a former bengals fan.

  21. That Jets loss will be like the week 1 Patriots loss last year, it will haunt us the entire season.

  22. I want to believe, but do we really think this defense can handle Allen? Lamar clearly is playing hurt and gave away the game last night.

  24. What gives me hope is that nobody has won the AFC North 3 times in a row in the history of the division…so based on that it really comes down to the Bengals and the Steelers and technically the Browns…

  26. Win out is the only true option, and hope there’s some chaos around the rat birds and Steelers

  27. If the Bengals make the playoffs with this dog’s hit defense (I’ll take the auto correct) then they should be handed the Lombardi trophy.

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