TNF & Black Friday:

  • The Cowboys & Bears winning did not help.
  • However, the Lions loss allows SF to create some distance from them. It also helps that Dallas & Detroit play each other next week (TNF).

NFC-West Reminder:

  • For tiebreakers between NFC-West teams "Common Games" comes before NFC record.

Clinching Scenarios:

  • SEA loss to MIN = SF clinches at least a tie in NFC record vs SEA
  • SF win vs CLE = SF clinches common games victory over GB
  • SF loss to CLE = DET wins common games tiebreaker
  • MIN loss = SF clinches NFC record tiebreaker
  • SF Win or MIN loss = SF clinches at least tie in Common Games
  • SF Win + MIN loss = SF clinches Common Games tiebreaker
  • Additional scenarios for ARI, WAS, & NO on their summaries.

Seeding Implications:

  • SF win + SEA loss = SF becomes the #6 Seed
  • SF loss = SF remains the #7 Seed

Playoff Odds:

  • Odds of making the playoffs currently sit at 88%.
  • SF win at Cleveland increases the odds to 94%.
  • SF loss at Cleveland decreases the odds to 78%.
  • Max Outcome at the end of the week: 95% chance.
  • Min Outcome at the end of the week: 76% chance.

If you spot anything off let me know and I'll add it to the notes here.

Enjoy!

12 comments

  1. Appreciate the effort that goes into this! I’ve been referring to this to decide how much to root for/against teams in each game in the playoff hunt. Super helpful!

  2. So much greatness in these analytics- thank you for the hard work as we head into all the possible scenarios late in the season!

  4. What messed us up was GB winning. Could have jumped up a spot if lions beat them on Thanksgiving. Not worried about Dallas (we have much higher conference record). All we control atp is the 7th seed, which of course means playoffs, but could have been much better. I see us getting no higher than the 6th based on how the other team’s schedules play out.

  5. So our game is all that really matters this week, although I’d love to see a couple of our divisional opponents lose.

  6. For an “easy” schedule, we get slugfest after slugfest resulting in further injuries and losing 1 or 2 games kicks us out of the post season while our divisional rivals with “tougher” schedule get easy cakewalk games which all but assures their place in the playoffs and seemingly not losing any major players unlike us.

  9. Detroit might be out with the rest of their schedule.

    Ideally, you want them to win next week against the Cowboys to take Dallas out and for the Lions to lose a few more games.

    Chicago and GB are most likely in.

  10. I knew that it was better for us if the Cowboys and Bears didn’t win but damn if I don’t like seeing the Chiefs and Eagles going through it right now

  11. So funny how so many niner fans were rooting for the Cowboys to beat the Chiefs, meanwhile they forget that the Cowboys play in the NFC and that win might have playoff implications. Especially with how hard our schedule is after the next two weeks.

  12. I’m pretty happy that it’s very unlikely we play either hawks or rams in wild card round when we make it

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