Giants vs Patriots Picks – NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Giants vs Patriots Picks – NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the SWAS. Finishing up NFL week 13. We’re on to Monday night. Giants are on the road in Foxboro. As far as this weekend, I had a very nice college football Saturday. Uh, yeah, it was a great rivalry Saturday for me. Things went pretty well. Uh, as far as NFL Sunday, as of right now, I am profitable on the day. But the key part of that sentence is as of right now because if I lose the Commanders, I actually slip into the red for the day. So, if I get washed in plus 6 and 1/2, nice little NFL Sunday. If I don’t get washed in plus 6 and 1/2, which you’ll know by the time you’re watching this, then actually slipped into the red for the day. So, that’s how the weekend went. Fun Thanksgiving weekend. A lot of good football. Let’s finish it up with Giants Patriots. I mean, it’s Cooper Russ two and a half points. I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they have the one good game against Kansas at home. When Toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some Earth is flat Andy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very ugly. I think this is going to be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, the Gmen on the road in Foxboro. And before we get into this one, weather is fine. Well, not fine. It’s going to be cold as balls, but in terms of football weather, it’s fine. mid to high 20s, no wind at all. So, should weather should be fine. Shouldn’t affect the offense at all. Uh, Giants Patriots. Giants have had the Patriots number four and three in their last seven matchups against New England. Yes, that includes the two Super Bowls. They’ve only played seven times in the last 20 years. 6-1 against the spread. So, betting the Giants blindly whenever they play New England has been profitable over the last couple decades. That’s the good news for the Giants. The bad news is this game is on the road. The Giants 0 and7. They haven’t won a single road game yet this year. They’ve actually lost 12 consecutive road games dating back to last season, which is a franchise record. So the Giants, if they lose this game to New England, that will be 13 consecutive road losses. Now, despite losing seven games on the road, despite being 0 and seven, they are 4-3 against the spread. So, despite being completely winless on the road, betting the Giants on the road has actually been profitable this year. Uh, anyway, let’s break down this matchup. Obviously, it was a lot of fun. We always love a a good Jameus Winston era, just two games, but we saw some fireworks. 2720. They had a fourth quarter lead against the Green Bay Packers, and then they take the Lions to overtime in Detroit. Yeah, every time we see Jameus Winston, it’s always a lot of fun. Giants played well in both these games. Uh, but we know it’s over because Jackson Dart is back at quarterback for this one. Obviously, still no Malik Neighbor, still no Cam Scatteraboo, that’s not new. Offensive line is completely healthy. And this Giants offensive line, I mean, doesn’t really get talked about that much cuz what? They’re 2 and 10. The Giants offensive line has played well. In fact, the entire Giants offense has played well with no neighbors, no Scataboo. We kind of all perceive the Giants to be a bad football team. And I mean, they are a bad football team, but look at their offensive numbers from their last seven games. The New York Football Giants have scored 20 plus points in seven consecutive football games. That’s the first time they’ve done that since 2011. Eli Manning was throwing passes to Victor Cruz and Hakee Knicks that season. So, the Giants have scored 20 or more points in seven straight games. They’re sitting at 2 and 10. They’re one of the worst teams in the NFC. They are scoring in their last seven games. They’re averaging over 25 points per game. 6.2 yards per play is excellent. Over 47% success rate. So, we kind of all perceive the Giants to be this terrible team, and again, they’re not a good team, but this offense moves the ball. Like I said, this offensive line has played pretty well. So, when we look at this matchup against New England’s defense, you look at the Giants year-long numbers, 21st and success rate, 12th in EPA per play. I think we have to evaluate the Giants offense as an average to even an above average offense. The offensive line plays well, they’re able to run the ball. This offense is pretty good. Now, New England’s defense 19th in success rate, sixth in EPA per play. But what is going on with this New England defensive front? We’ve got some injuries and out of nowhere, this team can’t seem to stop the run. And I was talking about it a couple weeks ago. We were talking about how New England had one of the best run defenses in the NFL. And one thing I pointed out was they played most of their schedule against teams that can’t run the ball. So now that they’ve seen a few teams that are capable of running the ball, Jets have a decent offensive line. The Bengals have been efficient on the ground all year. Even the Bucks run game has come around. Uh so now that New England has started to see some offensive lines that can generate push, we’re seeing this team get run on a little bit. In their last three games, they’re allowing over 5.1 yards per carry. Over 52% success rate per rush. So maybe this is a little bit concerning here for New England. This was the strength of the defense earlier in the season. All of a sudden, this team is getting run on and they’re playing a Giants offensive line that’s been pretty solid when it comes to creating space on the ground. And you look at this Patriots defensive front seven. We’ve got injuries popping up here. Milton Williams is still out. He’s on the IR. Uh good news, Christian Ellis is back. He actually came back last week. Uh so he’s not just returning this game. He’s been back. Tonga on the defensive line is questionable. Harold Langi III on the defensive line is questionable. He’s been dealing with an injury. He’s playing through it, but we’ve seen his production dip a little bit. So this Patriots defensive front might be a little vulnerable here. And with the Giants offensive line completely healthy, you’d have to think Jackson Dart might have some clean pockets to throw from in this game. And Jackson Dart, yes, he struggled a little bit under pressure in his rookie season, but 108.1 passing when given a clean pocket. So, I don’t think it’s crazy to say the Giants can run the ball in this game. I also don’t think it’s crazy to say that Jackson Dart will have a successful day throwing the ball. Like we just pointed out, this Giants offense has been working. They’ve actually been extremely efficient on the off on the offensive side of the ball. They keep losing games, so it’s not really being talked about. This Giants offense has been pretty good. So, yeah, I think the Giants offense is going to move the ball and score points like they’ve done for seven consecutive games. The question is on the other side of the ball because this Giants defense just wow. 30th in success rate, 32nd in EPA per play. With Cincinnati’s defense starting to trend upwards, we need to start having the discussion of is New York the worst defense in the NFL. Uh Kfka just fired the defensive coordinator. So, they made a well, they fired Dayball, then Kfka took over, and then Kfka immediately fired the DC. So, there’s I think there’s a new defensive coach calling plays. Correct me if I’m wrong, Giants fans. I don’t know if that’s new this week or was new last week. Regardless, they had to do something. this defense against the run. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen anything this bad. So, they’re dead last in both categories. Success rate, e pay-per-play. They’re the worst run defense on paper in the NFL this year. And the crazy part is they seem to be getting worse. Look at their last six games. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a six-game stretch of run defense this poor before. They’re allowing seven yards per carry, not in just one fluke game. They’re allowing seven yards per carry over a sixgame sample. That is so beyond crazy. They’re allowing over 186 rushing yards per game, 50.2% success rate per rush. The gap between the Giants and the next worst run defense is huge. This Giants run defense is the worst in the NFL by an actual mile. Now, New England doesn’t run the ball at all. They haven’t been able to run the ball all year, but since Henderson took over as RB1, it’s still not efficient. Just 30.3% success rate per rush in their last six games. That’s kind of when Henderson took over as RB1. Uh Stephvenson was actually hurt and then Henderson has kind of won the job since then. But in their last six games with Tvon Henderson as the main back, we’re seeing some explosive plays. 4.6 yards per carry, over 135 rushing yards per game. So, they’re racking up some raw stats. It’s really on a few explosive plays. The efficiency numbers are still terrible, but regardless, it’s still better than what it was the first half of the season. I mean, when Stevenson was the main back, they were getting held to under 30% success rate per rush, 3.7 yards per carry. They couldn’t run the ball at all. They still can’t really run the ball at all, but at least with Henderson back there, they’re capable of ripping off big plays. Regardless, I don’t even think it matters. They’re playing the Giants. I I honestly think a Mountain West team, a Mountain West offense, Boise State could probably run the ball on this Giants defense right now. They’re that bad against the run. Now, what do we think about this matchup for Drake May? Do we think Drake M can have a successful night throwing the ball on this Giants defense? Well, good news for the Giants. Couple pieces of the secondary coming back. Adibbo’s back from injury. Tyler Newman at safety is also back from injury. So, that’s huge. Uh, still no Tippido. In fact, I read something that was saying there’s a chance Tibido is done for the year. I don’t think that’s confirmed or anything, but I read an article that was kind of pointing at uh I believe the exact phrasing was the Giants didn’t indicate if he’d be back this year. So, it went from like, “Oh, he should be back any week to all of a sudden, I I think there’s a slim chance we won’t see Tibido again this year.” Don’t quote me on that. I’m just going based on off something I read. Regardless, he’s not playing in this game. But the thing is with Brian Burns and they’ve also got Abdul Carter there. Remember their first round draft pick. This Patriots offensive line is banged up. So, even without Tibido, I mean, this Giants pass rush hasn’t been good. We’ll look at the numbers in a second, but the entire left side of the Patriots offensive line is not playing in this game. So, that’s definitely a concern. This Patriots offensive line is not in good shape right now. The question is, are the Giants capable of exploiting it? The Giants pass rush, I mean, it’s not one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They don’t blitz a lot, and they’re still 23rd in press rate, 19th in time to pressure, so they’re a below average pass rush. Without Tibido, you you’d have to think they’re slightly worse than that. Uh, but with the Patriots missing the left side of their offensive line, I think we can count on the Giants generating a little bit of pressure in this game. The thing is, does it matter? Drake May, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against the Blitz, but the Giants don’t blitz. Drake May, one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at handling pressure. 90.2 pass rating under pressure is amongst the best of the NFL. 8.2 yards per pass depth under pressure is amazing. Drake May has not had problems handling pressure this year. So, part of me wants to say I don’t care about this offensive line. Drake May’s been great under pressure. He can handle anything. The Giants defense sucks. He’s going to have run support. And I don’t think that’s a crazy stance to take based on the numbers we have and based on what we’ve seen so far this year. But we do have to point out that Drake May starting to struggle a little bit recently. He hasn’t been bad. He’s been under a lot of pressure. Still averaging over 281 passing yards per game, but a 947 pass rating in his last four game his last three games, I’m sorry. That’s significantly lower than the stretch he was on. He his pass rating was up close to 120 for like a six game stretch there. So Drake May hasn’t been quite as efficient in his last few games. Now it’s the Giants defense. Henderson should be running the ball. I I don’t want to overreact big, ah Drake May is going to struggle against the Giants. And I mean it is a really good matchup for Drake May on paper. Uh Giants run a ton of man coverage. Drake May 126.2 pass rerating against man coverage. 10 yards per pass attempt. That’s the best in the NFL. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL so far this year against man coverage. Giants almost 40% of their defensive snaps are in man coverage. So, it’s the Giants. He’s going to have run support. He pieces up man coverage. And this Giants defense against the pass at a quick glance, it kind of looks like they’ve been doing a decent job in their last five games. They saw Jaylen Herz. That’s supposed to say M. Jones, not Daniel Jones there on the graphic. Uh they saw Caleb Williams, uh Jordan Love, Jared Goff. So, they’ve seen good quarterbacks and they’re holding those quarterbacks in their last five games to under 219 passing yards per game. So, at a quick glance, you’d say, “Hey, this Giants defense has been pretty good against the pass.” But if you take a closer look, that’s not the case at all. Look at their average pass rating in those games. A 114.6 with a success rate per drop back over 57%. The reason they’re only allowing 218.6 passing yards per game in their last five is because teams don’t need to pass the ball. We just looked at it. They’re allowing seven yards per carry. Why would teams ever drop back to pass against the Giants? You look at these last five games, you’re like, “Oh, Giants aren’t getting thrown on.” Well, they’re not getting thrown on because teams don’t need to drop back against them. They’re handing the ball off and getting seven yards. So, that’s why they’re only allowing 218.6 passing yards per game. So, even though you look at the numbers and you might think, “Oh, the Giants aren’t getting thrown on. Maybe they can keep they can hold Drake May in check.” I don’t think that’s really the case. I think the Giants defense against the pass might be just as bad as their defense against the run. Maybe not just as bad, but I don’t trust this Giants defense against the pass either. So, I’m on the over in this game. I took it early. I’m a little worried about the Patriots offensive game plan missing the two offensive linemen. I’m a little worried that this Giants defense is so bad against the run that New England might be really conservative and just run the ball and exploit that weakness. So, I’m a little worried about that. But based on how these two teams have played so far this year, definitely seems to point towards a higher scoring game. Both are top 10 in passing frequency. These are two offenses that like to throw the ball. And the Giants since they fired Dayball and KFKA took over the team. We’ve seen them really aggressive going for it on fourth down. We just pointed out that they’re playing non-stop highscoring games. And I mean, they’re 5-1 to the over. In their last six games, Giants are 5-1 to the over. New England is 4-2 to the over themselves in their last six games. So, I’m on the over. It’s at 46 1/2 now. Honestly, I don’t hate the Giants at plus 7 and a half. They’ve been competitive. I think they can score in this game. So, as far as a side, I didn’t bet the Giants, but I think the number should be 6 1/2 seven. So, at 7 and 1/2, it would be the Giants. But, as far as the bet I actually have, it’s over. I actually forgot to mention that I got a bad number in this one, too. Couple of those this week. Uh, I’m on over 47 and a half. Uh, I don’t remember if I bet the look ahead. Forget exactly when I got it, but yeah, I’m on over 47 and a half. You can get over 46 and 1/2 right now. So, yeah, I’m on the over. Lean towards the Giants. Thanks for watching. We’ll be doing live shows at midnight Eastern time all week talking college basketball. I’ll be talking some NBA at some point this week. Give me a day or two to get my spreadsheets up and running. I’ll be talking NBA. If you’re able to make it, we’d love to see you in the comments. Let’s have ourselves a good week. Remember to bet responsibly.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdown and picks for the Week 13 Monday Night Football game between the New York Giants and New England Patriots.

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