Reaction to Orioles signing reliever Ryan Helsley | Banner Baseball Show

Reaction to Orioles signing reliever Ryan Helsley | Banner Baseball Show

from the Banner offices along the inner harbor. It is the Banner baseball show. Paul Manano and John Mioli live on a Monday in December. Can say that for the first time this year. It is December 1st. We are in the Christmas spirit. I’ve got a a green sweater here. I was thinking about adding some red, but staved off the uh the full Christmas look. I think at some point I’ve got a couple Christmas jackets, some stuff that we could wear. I think at some point, John, we should probably really dive into the holiday spirit. Like do a festively dressed episode for for the I mean, why not? There’s like hundreds of thousands of people watch this. So, a lot of people will see. Some would say millions. Exactly. That’s what you millions of viewers have to look forward to at some point. Yeah. At one point. Yeah. Uh today’s show is going to be be about the Orioles new addition to the bullpen. Ryan Hley signs a two-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles. We’ll break down that signing. We’re also going to talk about some free agent outfielders that the Orioles could add this winter and uh we’ll tease a certain top 30 prospect list that is coming very soon. But first, John, let’s talk about Ryan Helley because the Orioles got their closer. 31 years old. The Orioles signed him to a 2-year deal worth $28 million with a player opt out after the first year year. Helley is 31 years old. He is a two-time all-star 2022 2024. Seven seasons in the big leagues career 296 RA with 105 saves. He was one of the best closers in baseball for a good stretch of time with the Cardinals. And then he struggled a bit in 2025. His platform year did not go particularly well. He was traded to the Mets at the deadline and then struggled even more. A 720 erra in 22 appearances down the stretch with New York 0 for four on save opportunities. But John, there is still a lot to like. He was still one of the top closers on the market. We know the Orioles needed a closer with Felix Bautista being sidelined for at least a while per perhaps all of 2026. They went out and got a guy who is regarded as for a while at least. We’ll see if 2025 was a blip. One of the best closures in all of baseball. Yeah. And and the the thing with signing someone like Ryan Hley is like I think there’s it’s among the most excusable like two month struggle stretches in baseball. Like when a reliever gets traded to a new team, sometimes it just doesn’t go well. relievers are finicky. It’s a finicky existence. A like one bad outing can can tank what a season looks like. And I don’t think Ryan Hley is the type to like dwell on a bad outing, but they do a certain thing or two things or three things incredibly well. And if any of those things get changed at all, whether it’s p pitch mix, whether it’s how sequencing, whether it’s how someone wants you to approach things, it’s a kind of a delicate equilibrium. And when it gets off, it can just get off. I mean, Ryan Hley’s expected stats weren’t as bad as the real ones with the Mets. Maybe this is like a little bit of a buy low opportunity for the Orioles, but not really. I mean, there might be there might be two relievers that get more money this off season than him. And and as far as signing somebody for this role goes, Ryan Helley is probably as good of an option as the Orioles could have got. I think Edwin Diaz will probably get the most money. Yeah. And then you can probably think about Robert Suarez and in the mix with Ryan Hley. The Orioles have wanted to trade for Ryan Hley for a really long time. Now they don’t have to give up players. They just give up money and now they have Ryan Hley and I’m pretty sure that’s a good day for for them. Yeah. Among the guys who were available, you mentioned Edwin Diaz, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams is also out there. Pete Fairbanks also out there. Kenley Jansen is also out there. I think it’s pretty clear Edwin Diaz is the top guy and then maybe Robert Suarez is the second guy. But then that next group, you could probably throw Helley in there and and he would fit in with Fairbanks and Williams and Kenley Jansen and you might have him above them. And you look at the the struggles that he had at the end of the 2025 season. You mentioned how finicky closers in particular can be. I mean, think back to a few years ago when Josh her got traded at the deadline to the Padres’s and he went from being one of the best closers in baseball to absolutely awful in the final two months of the season and then bounced right back and had a 128 erra in his first full season with the Padres’s. Devin Williams, the Yankees traded for last off season. Looked like a home run. He had just get blown a couple saves in the playoffs, but other than that, he’s no big deal. Two-time all-star for the Brewers. He was terrific. gets traded to the Yankees and really struggles with an erra close to five. So, it happens a lot when it comes to closers. Unless you are Mariana Rivera, you’re going to have a season or two that is going to look like a total anomaly. And there are certain reasons to expect why Ryan Helley might bounce back. The first is that he may or may not have been tipping his pitches. Yeah. Down the stretch with the Mets. It was reported in August that the Mets coaching staff certainly thought that was happening. Ryan Helley was working on a new change in his mechanics that uh he added when he came over to the Mets. And they were of the belief that he was making it clear when he was throwing his fast ball and when he was throwing his slider because those two pitches on their own should be dominant. The fast ball averages 99.3 mph. He is an absolute flamethrower and it would have been one of the best four-seater to go along with that. That one-two combination is absolutely deadly for a closer. His velocity didn’t drop at all in 2025. It went down 0.4 m an hour on average. That shouldn’t be enough. And the vert induced vertical break dropped a little bit, but about an inch or two. That shouldn’t be the difference between players having no chance to catch up to his fast ball and hitting his fastball with a 422 opponent batting average. So perhaps the solution is Yeah. He was making it clear to to opposing batters when the fast ball was coming and when the slider was coming. Yeah. And I think I saw a tweet. I can’t I didn’t bookmark it. I can’t tell you what it is or if what I’m saying about the said tweet is even true, but it seems like there’s there has been some inconsistency in like his release point and his fastball shape over the years. And that’s something that can be concerning. But how does that happen? How does and the answer to that question is how does somebody end up in the bullpen? They have trouble repeating their delivery. They have trouble being consistent in how they command their pitches. And things can get out of whack a little bit. And that’s broadly okay when you’re throwing 100 miles an hour with a wipe out slider, but it’s harder to do over five innings. So you go to the bullpen where over the course of time, more often than not, you’ll be at your best because you don’t have time to to fall out of your delivery, fall out of your your routine, stuff like that. Um, I think that when we talk about in this specific case the this pitch tipping stuff and and why it didn’t work um the way that it did for most of Ryan Hell’s career once he got to the Mets is that it I think there’s probably something to the physical tips and there’s also something to the fact that this is somebody who throws two pitches. He throws his fast ball and slider like 90% of the time combined and mixes in a change up sometimes curveball cutter sometimes. sometimes sometimes not nothing he’s super you confident in throwing obviously because a because he doesn’t have to be and b probably because those are you know clear lagards as pitches. So there are only you can develop tendencies and those tendencies can be really easy to exploit over the course of time when you only throw two pitches primarily for years and years and years and years. If we did one of those, they have those on baseball savant. Those like Plinko charts is like what count, what pitch, lefties, righties. I’m sure they would look pretty consistent from year to year for Ryan Hley. And I think that is something that is I don’t even want to say correctable. I don’t want to say I just want to say it’s just kind of not a big deal, right? It’s a big deal when it’s not working out, but over the course of time, if the fast ball is working and the slider is working and you know that one of the best sliders in baseball is coming, more often than not, you still can’t hit it. So, and that’s how he’s gotten his success over a number of years. So, I think when you look at it through that lens, it’s it it’s not not necessarily explainable or like okay, but it’s it feels like it’s acceptable to me. Yeah, absolutely. It’s It’s still a guy who’s 31 years old, who still throws 99.3 miles an hour, who still has these two pitches that have been dominant. You’re getting him for two years, 28 million. He’s one of the best closers in baseball for the last several years. Like, there are a lot of reasons to like this signing. And you hope that the 2025 that the end of the season was more a blip than it is a some kind of trend. But the Orioles clearly see that this is something somebody that they want to work with. They have the opportunity now to have a full winter with him, a full spring training with him. This to me feels like a very very middle of the road, like hit a double right up right in the gap kind of signing. You’re not swinging for the fences like you would be for Edwin Diaz, but I think for what you need, which is a closer for at least one year and maybe two if he opts in, this is a perfectly acceptable deal. Yeah. Yeah. I would I would probably characterize it a little above that. And I only say that and and I guess what I’m about to say is kind of it’s I I don’t think it’s not I don’t think it’s there’s any it’s definitely an extra base hit. Yeah. Um it is definitely and I don’t think there’s any competition for this and I think this kind of sets the stage. Um we’ve we’ve gone into step on the column segment of the podcast. Step on that column. This is the standard for everything the Orioles do this offseason has to be like is this the best thing we’ve done doing like we’ve done this before. Have we ever done it better? The answer is clearly no. Like we’re talking about like Nate KS and Michael Given and Greg Kimber and Nate. Remember Nate K? I do. Um he pitched twice for the Orioles I believe. Um one of them was an incredibly memorable game. Um Jordan Lyles, all these guys. Yeah. No, but for relievers specifically, like is this the best they’ve done at that? Yeah. Yes, absolutely. And like that is the standard that we’re holding this team to. It’s not a high standard, but it this need everything they do. They can’t they could have if they really wanted to. I don’t think you really I don’t think it would be a good idea to to do what they did last time. Felix Batista was basically was set to miss most of if not all of a season. They said, “We need a closer for one year. Who’s the best closer we can get for one year?” which diminished who they could have gotten because not every good free agent closer is gonna be like let’s sign up for one year. Let’s people want to get money. I think that was a year that Josh her was a free agent if I’m not mistaken. Um I think it was he obviously signed for an incredible amount of money with the Astros and I’m not sure you want to do that but you could have you could have you could have gone above Craig Kimell in that situation. I don’t feel great about handing any reliever anything more than two years. I really don’t. it it’s just such a difficult position to predict from year to year. Yeah, there’s a handful of them that are elite and I think maybe Josh her is in that category, but I’m of the opinion don’t go handing out three four-year deals to closers. Yeah. And like this could theoretically this could effectively be a one-year deal. I don’t think it really will matter to the Orioles too much if it is because then they could just go out and do this again with someone else. But if you were saying we only need maybe Felix’s shoulder is going to be perfect after surgery and he’s going to be our closer in 2027 and and we’ll pay him 5 million bucks because he’s not going to pitch this year. He’s going to have no counting stats and arbitration and hooray for us. We have a We They could say that. They shouldn’t. But if they wanted to be like we only need a closer for one year, they could have and they wouldn’t have Ryan Hley. Right. And they would have somebody who’s worse than him. Exactly. And there might only be I don’t know if we’re counting on, you know, we definitely don’t need a second hand to count the options that would be better than him. And I think that is what this offseason has to be. If they want people to look at this roster in February and say this team can win this division now, nobody’s going to say, “Well, who’s going to close?” Yeah. Nobody’s going to say, “Ah, they didn’t do enough in the bull.” They might still not do enough in the bullpen. You can always not. No one ever does enough in the bullpen. But they did enough in the ninth inning. They answered that question. So the first thing they’ve done this off seasonason with all apologies to Leodyis and trading for Taylor Ward. First thing they’ve done free agency that means something is to throw money at a real problem with a real solution. Yes. And it’s I’m glad you bring up the Craig Kimbell signing by talking around the Craig Kimbell signing from few years ago because that signing was what one year 15 million I believe to get Craig Kimell and like you said John they kind of limited their options because they were looking for a closer for just one year because they knew Felix Bautista was set to come back the following year. And when you do that, you have to settle for a guy who’s 36 years old at that point. And just trying to rack up some counting stats so he can get into the Hall of Fame. That signing made me a lot more nervous because You don’t say. Yeah. Yeah. You don’t say, Paul. Greg Kimbell was coming off a very bad postseason with the Phillies. There were a lot of reasons to believe that his play was declining. I don’t feel that way about Ryan Helley. and and maybe the the end of his his run with the Mets is a sign of bad things to to come, but this is a much much safer, better bet. He’s got postseason experience, too. Some pretty good postseason experience. Ryan Helley does with the Cardinals. There’s a lot of reason to believe that this signing will work out better. It’s just a bigger swing. It it’s like you’ve said, John, they’re doing a lot of the same things that Michaelas has done in previous offseason just with more resources to back them up. So, you’re just shopping in the higher priced aisles, but you’re still looking for the same type thing. And that just affords you the better the chance to get better players. Yeah. Yeah. And looking back at what happened with um in the Craig Kimber off, Josher was the top free agent, of course. Um David Robertson was in the mix. He could have p he had oh gosh a three RA in in 68 appearances for for Texas that year that would have been more useful than and I believe he signed super late too. Um Araldis Chapman uh that’s you know who really wants to deal with that but he’s on the mound. He was a one and a half four pitcher with 14.3 strikeouts for nine for the Pirates in that that season. I would have been critical of that signing, but for other reasons, I would have too. And that would have been, you know, and I’m glad that didn’t happen. Ronaldo Lopez signed with the Braves that year 1.99 RA. He was a starter. So that I don’t know why he’s classified as a reliever. We’ll change that. Uh just edit this out and post. But all he was a reliever and they kind of like signed him. He was a reliever and they started that’s exactly what happened. There were options. They could have gone longer years. Path. Yep. Joe Jimenez got longer years. Uh, Amelio Pagan got years. Guys got years. Yeah. And if they wanted to do something different, they could have. They did something that was they were they I’m trying to think of analogy in real time. They were only looking at the space they needed to fill. They weren’t looking at the big picture. And the big picture for this team right now is like let’s use our resources and let’s use our our in both money and talent. Let’s use what we have to get as good as we can right now. And I think that I think that feels like a clear difference. You’re right. Yeah. Uh that does not mean that the Orioles should be done with their bullpen. And I don’t think that they think that they’re done. No, they’re the trade deadline deals left them very very thin in the bullpen. They did uh offer tender contracts to Yen Canó, to Keegan Aken. They brought back Andrew Kitridge, but they just have so much that they still need to add to that bullpen. And I think the bullpen could be a nice home for a lot of these guys that came up as starting pitchers that the Orioles will not have room for in their rotation. Think of somebody like Kade Povich, like Chase McDermott who was converted to a reliever at the end of the season with Triple A Norfolk. So there there might be spaces there in the bullpen for these guys to come up who are young and the Orioles want them to pitch. Think DL Hall from a few years ago, but there’s not a spot for them in the rotation. So those kind of guys might fill in in the bullpen, but you still need high leverage guys who have done it before. This is your ninth inning guy. The Orioles still probably need to go out and get another high leverage guy, eighth inning, seventh inning, whatever it is, because they still are not done in the bullpen. Yeah. And and this is going to be an interesting area of how the Orioles kind of look at look at this situation. I don’t think they could have said we don’t need Brian Hley, we have Cage Straoud or they you can’t say anything like that. But I I think there’s continues to be a demonstrated ability for them to get get you 30 fine innings from somebody in the bullpen who’s free. Yeah. Or not expensive. And how many spots they leave for that versus how many spots they fill with somebody who you just know what you’re going to get. And if you’re paying $6 million for a for 50 good innings from somebody who’s, you know, who’s done it a million times before, there’s nothing wrong with that. No, you can you can absolutely do that and say, “We’re going to create innings for Kate Straoud. We’re going to have opportunities for Anthony Nunes who they have kept in the organization. Cam Foster to a lesser extent. I think in terms of near-term opportunities, but they’re going to they’re not going to stop thinking the way they’ve always thought about that type of stuff. The difference is that you need to you can’t rely on it when you have these high of expectations. When you think about when you think about the 20 22 or three whenever Felix Bautista just showed up and was just a dominant reliever and Jorge Lopez all of a sudden became a great closer and CN Perez out of nowhere, Waver Claim all of a sudden good. Brian Baker shows up really good. Um you know that was possible because they h created a bunch of opportunities for those types of guys. remember they traded Tanner Scott and Cole Sulzer before that season even started. Um, you can’t do that. You can’t do that when you want to win the division, when you want to get back to the playoffs. You can still do that conceptually as an organization. You can still claim guys off waiverss and fix them and make them better. And you can still have guys that you bring through your system that and acquire in trades that can help. But you can’t go into the season thinking that’s all going to work. That needs to be gravy. That’s not the That’s not the meat. That’s not the turkey to use a a a Thanksgiving pod. We’re We’re past Thanksgiving. Ryan Hely, you are a turkey. You were a turkey. You are the turkey in a in the best way. Yeah. In a positive way. You were not overly dry. Uh I think Yeah. I had great turkeys. Did you? Yeah. My wife’s Uncle Hank made some great turkeys. Uncle Hank. Yeah. Nice. Yeah. Uh I made the gravy this year, so that was that was a big first step for me. That’s good. That’s You’re not really a savory. No, I’m usually the sweets guy. And yet, uh, I think it turned out pretty well. That’s great. Um, yeah, I you also can’t be in a position where you’re comfortable not losing games, but you’re, you know, you you can’t just hover around 500 for the first couple months of the season. You can’t you can’t obviously go off get off to the kind of start that they had last year. And so, you can’t just sit on your hands and wait for these guys to figure it out and be like, well, let’s let’s hope some of these guys develop. The bullpen’s blowing us some games, but you know, by the end of the year, they’ll figure it out. You need to be great out of the gate, as we’ve seen, or else you’ll dig yourself a massive hole, and then you’ll have to fire manager on PNS day in May, and then everything just goes terribly. Um, I’m not going to be available that day. They’re not going to do that. We’re not We’re not doing that. I’m not doing that. Um, all right. Let’s talk about some free agent outfielders that are out there. And I know what you’re thinking. The Orioles just traded for Taylor Ward. Why do they need more outfielders? Well, John, you wrote about on the banner.com where people can subscribe. $1 for nine months. How long does that deal last? $1 for at least six months. I don’t know how long the deal lasts specifically, but it can’t last longer beyond today, which is Cyber Monday. Cyber Monday. Exactly. Well, anyway, you’re getting a bargain. Uh, you wrote about how the Orioles may not be done in the outfield after acquiring Taylor Ward because the picture doesn’t seem complete. Why is that? Well, it’s it can be, but this is there’s a there’s way too many questions still. The only thing there’s not really questions about is Taylor Ward, and his questions are small. Like, is he going to be able to hit in this ballpark? No big deal. It’s only what he’s been acquired to do. Um, small questions. So, yeah, who knows? Um, but when you think about, you know, I have fewer questions probably than most about Colton Cowser. I think Colton Cowser when he is out there for six months He is going to be like a two, three win player at first and it’s going to be good and he’s going to probably frustrate you by striking out too much and swinging missing too much, but over the course of a full season, you’re going to get some good stuff from Colton Cowser. Dylan Beavers avoided the first, you know, the the toe stub that happens when you are a great Orioles prospect recently and comes to the big leagues. He was able to hit. There are many many smart people sitting at computers right now trying to figure out the best way to get Dylan Beavers out and every single team the Orioles play in April will use that specific way to attack him until he figures out either it works or so that is just something that’s going to happen. There are qu that means there’s questions there. Hston Kers said there are always questions at this point. Tyler O’Neal. You think that there wouldn’t be questions based on what happened this year, but he has a lot of proving it to do. And he certainly does. Then that’s it. That’s a really interesting mix where if everything goes perfectly, you have a really like diverse and impactful outfield. And the Orioles aren’t really in a position to to see if that Jenga Tower stays up. Yeah, it’s just not really a thing that you feel like you want to do, even if you can do it, even if you are in that position. So, with all that said, and we said this from the moment the trade happened on this podcast in this room with Andy Kaskka, that this doesn’t I didn’t I didn’t think it felt done then, and I have I’ve nothing has happened over the last couple weeks to to make me think that it’s done now. Yeah. The what concerns me when I look at this outfield group is I don’t see many center fielders. Yeah, Colton Cowzer is your center fielder. He did a fine job there last year. You have Leodyiver who you just signed to a two-year deal. He can play center field. He is not the best hitter. Other than those two guys, Dylan Bevers is not really a center fielder. Tyler O’Neal is not really a center fielder. Honest certainly is not a center fielder. aren’t a whole lot of options that you feel great about in center to the point where if Colton Cowser goes down like he did for stretches of time in 2025. Yeah. You might be in trouble. Yeah. And I should mention too that, you know, I don’t think you’re planning around or for Jeremiah Jackson, but yeah, he was brought up to try out for the Ramonas role after they traded Ramonas. And he played a lot more outfield by need, I think. But even when that wasn’t a need, he still played a lot more outfield. And I think he was better in the outfield than he was on the infield. I think that was kind of the perception from from from the club at the time. So you’re not could he be the you know backup infielder outfielder type? But yes, but that’s not so again that’s not somebody you’re counting on to be able to play center field. That’s not somebody especially with Taylor Ward and Tyler O’Neal in the mix as right-handed hitting outfielders and Leo Tiveres as a switch hitter. There’s not an obvious role for him and it only he doesn’t really add to any of the clarity. Yeah. Jeremiah Jackson played 34 games in the outfield. None of those games were in center field. Also played one game at second, 13 games at third. And he’s to me I’m in the same boat as you, John. Would be great if Jeremiah Jackson in his age 26 season is a is a nice utility player for this team, but I’m not banking on it. It it’s a very small sample size. a guy who kind of floundered in the minor leagues before he really found his footing in 2025. It’s it’s an awesome story and I hope he succeeds, but I’m not banking on anything. Yeah, I’m not sure that I think the Orioles when they went out and acquired Taylor Ward, I don’t think they felt like done and dusted. This is the one guy that we wanted to get for our outfield and we feel great about it and we’re done and we’re moving on. I think last year they felt that way about Tyler O’Neal. I think when they signed Tyler O’Neal at in addition to getting Raone Lauraniano and Delin Carlson, they felt like, “All right, we we’re good enough. Tyler O’Neal is going to solve enough problems on his own and we feel good enough about everybody else around him.” I think right now there are legitimate questions about everybody else in that outfield. Like you said, John, nobody you feel great about and you can write in with in pen. I think maybe the absence of Cedric Mullins is just reminding us of just how valuable he was for so many years in Baltimore. because you could just put him in center field and he you felt phenomenable about his defense. You felt pretty good about his bat. You felt amazing about him on the base paths and it was just a nice easy solution to a position that the Orioles right now are probably looking to uh to add some depth to in center. Yeah. And and not the devil I don’t think this is a devil’s advocate thing, but last week we talked about the opportunity cost of having Ryan Mount Castle and Kobe Mayo both there and that like if that’s that’s how you’re using a roster spot, so you can’t use it on anybody else. The Orioles tremendously benefited from having such a settled outfield for so long with Austin Hayes and Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santon there basically for the first half of this decade locked in. Y Austin Hayes gave way to Colton Cowser and that happened because Colton Cowser was ready and he was there. There was not the opportunity. There didn’t need to be the opportunity. Anthony Sansandere had hit 40 something home runs. Cedric Mullins is is a consistent presence. But last year turned into you know there was as these opportunities emerged the the solutions like the Coltton cows cool you just get to be the left fielder now thing didn’t happen again. It might have happened with Dylan Beavers. I think it’s a little bit early to say that. But but as we’re talking about all these questions emerging, I just don’t think last year was an answer. There were it didn’t provide answers that made this no that made this an easy conversation. And Tyler O’Neal was the solution to the problem that they had last year. I don’t want to I don’t want to I’m not like setting down the foundation on Tyler O’Neal Mountain, but I think that I’m just going to say enough that people will think I’m a Tyler O’Neal guy that I will say enough that he will just he’s going to be better this year. He’s probably going to hit like 20some home runs with like an eight something OPS and be good. Play more than 54 games. Play more than 54 games. When he played in the second half, he was good. I think I I believe that to be true because I think I looked it up recently and I was like, “Oh, wow.” He had like a 780 OPS in the second half. It didn’t feel like it. It was mostly driven by like that two week stretch where he just hit a bunch of home runs. But this is all this is not stable ground that we’re having this conversation on, which I guess is the whole point of what we’re talking about. This is not anything that a team that wants to be able to show up in Sarasota in the first week of February and say this is a team that’s going to go and win this division. This is not what that outfield looks like. Yeah. And and it’s interesting because there are a few guys on the free agent market who fit that bill who you can write in with pen and they are answering all of the questions. You don’t you don’t have to worry about splits. You don’t have to worry at least historically about injuries. You feel great about these guys. Two guys at the top of the list, I think, for just about every team looking for outfield help are Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger. Kyle Tucker is going to be 29 next year. It’s from the left side. Had a quote unquote down year for him, but that his down year would be a lot of other players career year. Hit 266 with 22 homers, 25 stolen bases in 136 games for the Cubs. He is a very good defender in a corner. He played center earlier on in his career, but he’s probably relegated to a corner from now on. But he is a power hitter. He is a threat on the base path. He does just about everything well you can possibly ask for. There’s the connection to Michaelas. He was a firstround pick by the Michaelas Houston Astros front office. There’s a lot to like about Kyle Tucker. And there’s a lot to like about Cody Bellinger, another left-handed hitting outfielder. We all of course remember his uh MVP season for the Dodgers and then it all went downhill very quickly. He gets non-tendered by them. He has just been a very good outfielder the last couple years. His first year with the Met or with the Mets with the Yankees last year. Sure he benefited from that short porch in right field. But still he was outstanding. 272 batting average, a 125 OPS plus hit 29 dingers, 13 stolen bases. He can play center, he can play left, he can play right, he can play first base if he’s needed to. Cody Bellinger, who’s going to be 30 next year, makes a lot of sense. Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger, are going to get a lot of money. Do you think the Orioles would be willing to pay either of them what it’s going to take to bring them to Baltimore? Yes. Okay. I do. I Because what is the what does what does no mean? Like what does saying no to that mean? that they wouldn’t want to sign really good players who can help them for the foreseeable future in a circumstance when money doesn’t mean a lot or so we hear. So, so saying that’s what they tell us. So, saying no would be would mean that they don’t think that those guys can be upgrades and that they don’t think that there’s value to having them on the 2026 Baltimore Orioles. So saying no would be to also say that they feel good about what the outfield looks like right now and that they are to the point of our previous conversation limiting their view of the market to what they need right now versus what they will need in two and three years and what they need just talent-wise overall. which is to say that they only want to sign someone who can maybe grow into a bigger role or be a good value because they have Dylan Beavers and Colton Cowser and they just traded for Taylor Ward and maybe in a couple years Nate George’s, you know, bursting onto the scene and and this and that and Nike Irish and we can just go that is a way that they have thought and to say no would be they’re kind of still thinking that way. You know what you can do? If you have Kyle Tucker on your team in three years and you don’t have enough spots for like the young outfielders, you could trade somebody like doesn’t really make a difference to the Baltimore Orioles right now. So, I think yes. I think that’s I think those are the types of and I’m only using the answer key that I was given. You know, if I’m if it feels like I’m just repeating answers and like cheating on the test, it’s because Michael said he wants people to think this team can win the division when spring training starts. That means you have to do stuff like sign Kyle Tucker or sign Cody Bellinger because everyone outside of like the city of Baltimore and maybe outside of this chair would look at Colton Cowser as your everyday center fielder and say, “I don’t know.” Yeah. Anyone who saw Kyle Tucker as your everyday center fielder would say, “Oh, wow.” So, if that’s what you’re trying to do, then that’s what you need to do. Do you think Kyle Tucker can play center still? I’m sure he can. I don’t know. Um I should have said everyday outfielder, but like that is an easier if he is batting fifth for the third, fourth, fifth for the Baltimore Orioles in the projected lineup. If I was going to say in like Sports Illustrated, which I don’t believe is a thing anymore in the way that it used to be when that would come out, people would flip to that page and go, “Oh, wow.” Yeah. And with the three outfielders, they would say, “Okay.” Yeah. And you want the Oh, wow. You don’t want the Okay. And that’s what we’re talking about. Yeah. I I he is one of those guys and I think Cody Bellinger is too where if you have the chance to sign him, you do so and then you worry about the rest of the roster later. Those are questions that you answer later. You say, “We’ll sign Kyle Tucker. You you want to come to Baltimore? Yes, please sign on the dotted line. Don’t worry about the fact that you would be overlapping with Colton Cowser. Don’t worry about any of that. We will figure it out.” And whether that means trading somebody, whether that means reshuffling guys, whatever it means, you do what you can to get those two players. And I think the way that Michaelas has looked at the off season in the last couple years, it has been box checking. It has been, all right, we need a right-handed hitting corner outfielder. Tyler O’Neal is that. Check that box. We need a backup catcher who hits from the right side, mashes lefties. Gary Sanchez is that, check that box. Yeah, it seems like this is how it should be approached in my mind, is this team better? Does this player make this team better? Does Kyle Tucker make this team better? Does Cody Bellinger make this team better? Yes, check. Does it matter that they hit from the left side? Does it matter that they would be an overlap for guys that you already have on the roster? Yes. But who cares? Just make the team better. Don’t look at such a through such a confined narrow viewpoint that you need guys who are going to fit your perfect world of of a player and and it’s going to fit your roster perfectly. You rearrange your roster around the players that are star players. And if you have a chance to get a star player like Kyle Tucker, you go out and do that. I I thought of my analogy as you’re talking about this and it’s exactly what you’re saying. This is not like we need a new end table for our living room. Like we have our couch, we have our we have our cozy chair. Like the TV’s here, the TV stand is here. We put our shoes in this, you know, over at this spot. It’s it’s not so like what they had been doing is like, oh, okay, what’s the best end table we can get for our room laid out with the stuff we have right now? And you know what? That’s a fine way to go about life. What you can do if you really want things to look nicer is say, “Do we love this couch? Do we love this chair?” Right? Do we want to keep this layout the way that it is? Do you go out? Do people do most people often say, “We have this couch. We don’t have an end table, but maybe I’m just going to go buy a new couch anyways.” No, that’s not typically how things go. Usually you like plan it out and you have a plan A and you’re like, “All right, if we get this couch, we got to do this and that and the other thing.” But like this would be saying, “This is a fine couch. I’ve sat on this couch a lot. I believe that I could be happy with this couch, but this other couch is better and I don’t really care about anything other than this couch is better than the couch that I have and I want this better couch.” That’s what this would be. And once you have a couch that you like that you know is better than the couch that you have, you can figure out the rest of the things later. You can figure it out later. Now, like as I’m saying all this, I’m thinking about like a person who lives in my household who I love dearly who would be listening to me say this and be like, “You don’t want a new couch. You don’t want a new anything. So, how are you how are you using this to describe a baseball team?” Shout out Merryill. Yeah, shout out to Merryill. Um, but this this would be that kind of thinking and like I understand why you wouldn’t do it, but if you don’t care about spending money and you just want to be as good as possible right now, you go buy the best couch you can. Yeah, well said. Uh, we are live on as we are every week on YouTube X and Facebook and I saw a comment from one of our viewers, one of the millions as we would say and millions. Oh, the rock. Millions of followers. Steve asks the he says the only issue I see with signing somebody like Tucker or Bellinger is what it would mean for guys like Gunnar, Westber, Holiday. I understand that line of thinking. Those are three guys that you want to keep in house. Those are three guys that are currently represented by Scott Boris. Scott Boris doesn’t like his clients to sign extensions, which mean you could be waiting until their free agency years from now to try to sign those guys and hand them the hundreds of millions of dollars that they could be getting. Gunnar Henderson isn’t going to be a free agent until the 202829 off season. Mike Elias, if the next few years don’t go great, he might no longer be the president of baseball operations by the time Gunnar Henderson gets to be a free agent. Absolutely. He he needs to have a long-term view in mind. That’s what he’s always worried about. That’s what he’s always said. But they need to win baseball games in the short term. and he can’t be worried about the free agencies of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westber, Jackson Holiday 3 years before they’re going to be free agents. That’s a problem that they will have to figure out down the road. And and the thing is, if you if you build a World Series winner, like if you really build a great team in 2026 and 2027, 2028, guess what? You get more money from fans. You get more money from MLB for winning the World Series. Everything is great. like he can’t be worried and Gunnar Anderson might want to resign because you have a three-time World Series winner. Like yeah, focus on the here and now. Worry about those guys free agencies when you get to that. So that would be my answer to that that uh issue. Yeah. And and you know, again, we’re only going by what you know what they say and you can scrutinize that and not believe it to the extent you want to. I think until it proven untrue, you have to kind of take these things as they’re presented. If this team really doesn’t, you know, have a budget and doesn’t they can pay more than one player $35 million a year. You could probably pay like two or three. I’m looking at the top salaries of of, you know, from last year around baseball. The Rangers had two players making $30 million. The Mets, the Yankees at least. U there’s three Mets on there. There’s a bunch of Dodgers. There’s a Cardinal or two. Blue Jays. You can do this if you want to. And I think that is what they would have to and you know if you hold on to your money to sign players who might not resign here, you might just end up with money that you didn’t spend. Yes, you might not resign them anyway. Um all right, a few more free agent outfielders that I want to mention who are not in the category of Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger, but might be worth worth a look anyway. Harrison Bader, I thought from the start of this offseason made a ton of sense. plays center field, hits from the right side, coming off an outstanding year with the Twins and Phillies would be kind of a perfect fit in center field for this team because of how much they need right-handed hitters because of the defense that he brings in center field. He’s 32 years old. It’s 17 homers last year. The question for me would be, do you buy the 2025 season? Uh Stackcast doesn’t love his underlying metrics. thinks he got perhaps got a little bit lucky, but the counting stats are there, the defense is there. There’s just a lot to like about Harrison Bader. Yeah. And that this feels like something that would have been a little more of a conversation before the Taylor Ward Yes. trade. But it kind of goes to what kind of team is this going to be? I don’t want to say that they’re going to, you know, be back on the platoon train, but they could. It’s part of their DNA. It’s It’s part of their I don’t think Craig Albernaz is opposed to that. Um I think he probably will want to put the best lineup out there. He’s somebody who says he wants to know all the numbers and he wants to make the best decisions possible. Sometimes, not every time, but some of the time, probably a smaller percentage than people think, the numbers don’t bear out the left right advantage that teams go with anyways, but more often than not, they do. Is this roster built to have a third right-handed hitting outfielder? I’m not sure about that, but he would be the top option if we were going to do that. But one of those guys you can’t count on healthwise. You count on Taylor Ward healthwise because he’s been very healthy in his career. Count on Harrison Bader healthwise, you hope, but you just can’t count on Tyler O’Neal. And that’s why I also listed a couple other right-handed hitting outfielders because I think that there is a chance that the Orioles still try to trade Tyler O’Neal if there’s a team that is willing to take it. Yeah. For the final two years of his deal. Uh he’s owed about $35 million, I believe, for the the final two years of that deal. Maybe you can. Maybe you’re in a position now where if money is truly no object for this ownership group, you can, as you put it, John, last week, strap a bunch of cash to him and put him on an airplane. Yeah. Um, pay another team to take him off your hands because you just don’t feel good about him healthwise. If this team didn’t feel good about Grayson Rodriguez longterm healthwise, they certainly can’t feel good about Tyler O’Neal. Exactly. Uh, so if you do trade Tyler O’Neal, I would look at one of these two guys as well. Adoleis Garcia was non-tender guy by the Texas Rangers. He was phenomenal in 2023. That year the Texas won the World Series. He just has been not as good since. His his free swinging nature has finally caught up to him. He hit .227 this past year with uh still hits the ball really hard, 19 homers. When he gets a hold of it, he just whiffs a whole lot. Uh still plays very good defense in right field as well. So still a somewhat valuable player. And then here’s kind of a wild card out there, but Rob Refner, if this team really does want to lean in back into the platoon, if they could just can’t shake this part of themselves and if they trade Tyler O’Neal, Rob Refder does some of the things that Tyler O’Neal does and he’ll be a lot cheaper. He’s old. He’s 35 years old. Old relative baseball speaking. Sorry. Sorry. Um, but hits from the right side. Had a 131 OPS plus last year. He doesn’t bring the same kind of power, the same kind of thump that Tyler O’Neal does. had just nine home runs. Uh but if you need a right-handed hitter to play sparingly, especially against lefties, he mashes lefties. Rob refer the Tyler O’Neal replacement and so could Adi Garcia. Yeah. And I I think this will come down to this will come down to again the opportunity say, you know, Ramon Lauraniano was was very good. Tyler Tyler O’Neal insurance. He cost what $5 million. It was basically a two-year whatever it was $5 million. This again comes down to do the Orioles look at what they have and say, you know, we could ride we could they could very easily be counting on Jeremiah Jackson being being the, you know, the thatch underneath the Tyler O’Neal stilts. I don’t know. I’m mixing metaphors, but they could say, you know, if we need somebody to play like be our right-handed hitting right fielder half the time and and Tyler O’Neal can’t be that, can Jeremiah Jackson do that for 800 grand and then we can use the money elsewhere. Do you want to think like that? Is that something you want to be thinking about? is somebody who, you know, that role specifically, like Raone Lauraniano was coming off a couple good months and had to wait a while, but got a pretty decent contract to do what he’s doing. You can if you are Rob Reed or somebody who’s in that like platoon outfield bucket, you can hold off to get a good deal if you want to. are you going to sign here for what is even if you are not counting on Tyler O’Neal to it’s still not a huge role that you are signing up for right and I think that will be the challenge there is that as things as as things are shaking out slash until they do shake out with other shoes dropping you can offer as much money as you want but somebody’s gonna have to think they can play and especially on that kind of short-term deal, play enough to earn another deal. And that is where I think they’re going to run into a little bit of an issue here. And I wonder if this might be a situation where they do say, “Well, we can maybe just plug this in for now, right?” Um, all right. One more guy that I think we should talk about that doesn’t really profile as an outfielder or a DH. Played just eight games in the field in 2025. That’s Kyle Schwarber. Going to be 33 years old, hit 56 home runs. He is a designated hitter. I mean, he should be viewed as ADH. He really can’t play the outfield a whole lot anymore. This fit is a little bit tougher to figure out because you already have Adley Rutman, Samuel Bisio. We’re going to be rotating through that DH spot. Maybe you have H Kirstad. Maybe you have the Kobe Mayo, Ryan Mount Castle tandem, but at the very least, you’re counting on Basio and Adley to take up a lot of those DH spots. And you want Kyle freaking Schwarber in your lineup as many times as humanly possible because 56 homers is 56 homers. He is a superstar player. I know I just went on this big rant about getting superstar players is worth it. This one’s just a little bit tougher for me to explain away. Yeah. Yeah. If we wanted to stick with the living room, like this would be to buy something with no plans to get rid of. It would be to say let’s get another couch. Yeah. Which is something that you do which is big and heavy and we need movers to get in here anyway. Yeah. And like you know it ends up looking like you know you know your buddies who had like a house instead of like their dorm room in college where they just had every random piece of furniture they could find so everyone could sit around and watch football. All of a sudden, you have a bunch of couches and you’re like, “Well, I’m glad I have this couch to sit on, but like you’re not thinking about how it looks at that point and you don’t really I was just trying to do the math in my head and I’m sure it would be a fascinating exercise. Like, how can you get 450 nailed on plate appearances for these seven guys?” And I’m sure that you could, but I’m not sure that you should. The juice is worth the squeeze. Yeah. Um, you were so worried about whether you could, you didn’t think about whether you should. Yeah. Um, all right, those are the free agent outfielders that are out there. Whether the Orioles signed one of those guys or not, we’ll see. We have plenty of coverage at the banner.com uh throughout the offseason. One more topic I do want to touch on briefly. Baseball America’s top 30 prospect list coming tomorrow. Correct, John? Is that when that comes out? Yes, tomorrow. Um, you work very hard on this. Incredibly hard, Paul. Thank you for saying that. Uh, I don’t want to give it away, but what were some of the things that you learned while while putting together this list? Um, I think, you know, I think we can give away the Samuel Bose prospect. Yeah. Breaking hashtag breaking. Um, what did I learn? I would love to super cut me saying, you know, Baylor on this pod, whether it’s in writing, whether it’s on on the verge, our our boys over there, um, who I will be chatting with this week and do so every week when this list comes out. I think what is challenging every year is like a fitting people into the top 10 because you do a top 30 and the top 10 comes out and then the 30 comes out later and and you’re concerned about who’s not on top 10 rather than who is in it. And I feel less bad I feel pretty strongly about we have the right 10 this year. Um a lot more pitchers than typically is the case. Um, I think I was surprised by how many people were bullish on some of the pitchers that are there. You know, Esma Mahia like shot up through the rankings based on a look that Baseball America got in Sarasota and it’s a big arm, but you know, Trey Gibson came away as everyone’s clear like this is the dude on the mound in this system inside outside and I think that’s pretty cool. um you know there are other really good pictures and I think that when you see the top 10 you know tomorrow or whenever you see it there’s there can be fluidity within that and that extends to the rest of the list as well. Um, you know, the when I was doing it, I like to talk about all the top 10 candidates first, which basically means you’re talking about like realistically like 15 to 20 guys with every person you talk about and then you talk about the rest of them in a second call when you have kind of put that top 10 aside. But you can write all those earlier like the 10 11 through 20 reports and figure out that order based on the earlier calls. And what becomes pretty clear is that all those guys could be in the top 10 too. And I that’s the thing I say every single year and like you know, oh so and so could have been here and like but I think for various reasons that is more true this year than it is in in past years. I mean the names that are not in the top 10 are 20 year olds who got to double A this year which is a thing that when you do that that means something. you know, they’re they’re high profiled trade acquisitions who are important to this team’s future. They are the next tier of pitchers who are probably could have been in the mix with the first group. They’re real they’re real prospects, too. And I think and I think that is, you know, I think that is always the takeaway is that, you know, and once you got to like 20 to 30, there was, you know, those could have been in any order and you just kind of put in names. So I honestly decided on like I don’t want to be wrong by not having this guy in. I would rather have them in and be wrong than not have them in and be wrong, right? Um, but I think the top 10 specifically is a pretty interesting mix of what this organization really is like. Yeah. is really like, you know, where they’re at. We there’s not 15 like there’s not three guys at the top of every draft who are just automatically top 10 prospects because they sign and then end up in AAA a year after they’re drafted. Like that’s not what the Orioles are doing anymore. But there’s good drafted hitters, there’s international hitters, there’s pitchers. It’s it’s a little more of a diverse mix. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, I don’t want to in any way insinuate that the early years of the Michaelas top prospect list was had anything to be critical about because I mean, goodness gracious, the amount of talent that it turned out. But if you could bring one level of criticism against it, it was just that it was very one note. It was very highly drafted position players. Yeah. And that’s that’s a note they were playing. That’s the note they were playing. And yeah, hey, it’s a good note. Let’s not let’s not kid ourselves. They haven’t stopped doing that. They haven’t stopped doing that. And you know, there are people from this year’s draft who could have been in the top 10. And it’s no not that they’re not. There’s just other candidates in there. I bet if this if the Orioles had the 2025 draft in 2022, all five all four of the first day picks would be in the top 10 because why not? Yeah. Um also, they would have had like four guys who were completely like studs that whole minor early season. And I think the 2024 draft not producing as many obvious like dudes impacts this list and makes it a little more diverse. And I think that the trades they made out of the 2023 draft al also make it a little bit of a different look. But all the things that they did well I think remain the case. And this is just kind of a demonstration. They’re starting to do other things well too. Yeah. and the international free agency is is the final piece of that. It’s the trades, it’s the lack of, you know, the so far perceived failures of the 2024 draft class and the international free agency that that kind of add to the diversity of that list, but I’m excited to to see it tomorrow. Um, we have so much more coverage as well on the banner.com.joli is John’s handle. I’m Paul Manobannerports. Subscribe to his newsletter inside the dugout. We’ll be at Winter Meetings a week from today. Yeah, don’t need to dress in our Christmas clothes for that. I don’t know. Uh down in Orlando. Going to be exciting times. I don’t know where we’re going to podcast from. Perhaps a hotel room. Danielle Alantuck and I did it from a a hotel room last year, so maybe we’ll be back and doing it again. Yeah. From there. Yeah. Should we try to get like people to come on it? That’d be sick. I don’t know if they’d come up to room 415 or whatever, but ask nicely. I’m sure we’ve got enough contacts. We shall see. Thanks so much for tuning in for John Mioli. I’m Paul Manano. We will be back next week unless something crazy happens. We’ll see you next time.

Ryan Helsley’s 2025 season could have gone better. The two-time All-Star failed to convert a single save after being traded from the Cardinals to the Mets at the deadline. But his new two-year, $28 million contract makes worlds of sense for the Orioles.
Banner Baseball Show co-hosts Paul Mancano and Jon Meoli break down the signing and run through some free agent outfielders who might interest Baltimore.
Tune in live at 9:30 a.m.

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