Week 13 Recap

The Texans got their 4th win in a row, and it was a huge one! With a victory over the Colts, the AFC South is up for grabs for any team that’s not the Titans.

On a related note, the Jaguars currently sit atop that throne thanks to their win over the Titans.

We got some help from the Cowboys to keep the Chiefs in check, meaning they are pretty much fighting for their playoff lives at this point. Unfortunately, that begins with our matchup on SNF…

Elsewhere, the Broncos and Patriots still maintain a healthy separation as the 1 and 2 seeds in the AFC, and the wildcard race remains quite tight.

As a reminder, the ESPN Playoff Machine is live! You can use this to play around with all sorts of game result scenarios and see what the playoff matchups and seeds can look like.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

NOTE: For a more in depth look at the full AFC Playoff Picture, check out my other post here

1. New England Patriots (11-2)
2. Denver Broncos (10-2)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

7. Buffalo Bills (8-4)

8. Houston Texans (7-5)

The Texans are currently one game back from a wildcard spot, and 1 game back from the division lead.

Best possible position by end of week:

• 5th Seed

Worst possible position by end of week:

• 9th in AFC

According to the NYT Playoff Calculator, if everything goes the Texans way this week, they would end the week with a 88% chance to make playoffs.

If everything goes against the Texans this week, they would end the week with a 39% chance to make playoffs.

So somehow, some way… this week seems even more important than last for our playoff hopes.

Key Games:

Texans @ Chiefs

• Desired Winner: Texans

Phew- this one is important y’all. First and foremost, if we win this game, we will officially be in the playoff picture. This also happens to be an opponent who seems to find another gear in playoffs and is right by us for the wildcard race. Whoever wins, steps ahead in that race, and with only 4 weeks left in the season afterward, it would be a challenge to get back on top.

As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs are going to be fighting for their lives, treating this like a playoff game. Let’s the hope the Texans match that, and be forewarned, that if they do, the Texans will be responsible for crushing playoff hopes for one of the most popular teams in the league, and doing so by putting them at a record of 6-7. So just be ready to see that meme everywhere if we win is all I’m saying.

Colts @ Jaguars

• Desired Winner: N/A

This is the game that allows us to for sure take a playoff position if we win. Both our division rivals here hold an 8-4 record, and this game will determine who sits atop the AFC South for next week. We don’t have a desired winner as we hold the tiebreaker over both teams. Still a key game to know what the journey to the AFC South crown will look like.

Bengals @ Bills

• Desired Winner: Bengals

With the right setup, the Texans can overtake the Bills in playoff positioning due to their tiebreaker over them. And while the Bengals have not performed well this season, they have Burrow back, and the Allen/Burrow rivalry has always maintained its fireworks, and can absolutely go either way. This should be a great game- watch it if you can and root for a Cincy victory.

Eagles @ Chargers

• Desired Winner: Eagles

Here’s another team we can step above in the rankings if we win and they lose. Chargers are a wildcard team, and for any wildcard team playing an NFC opponent, the NFC opponent is always the clear desired winner.

Steelers @ Ravens

• Desired Winner: Toss-up, lean Steelers

The Ravens and Steelers both sit at 6-6. One of them will come out on top of the AFC North at 7-6, and the other memed for the week at 6-7. Whoever loses is our wildcard competition, and that means we benefit regardless here. The reason to lean Steelers, is that we know we hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens, meaning if they become a wildcard race threat instead of sitting atop the AFC North, we have an advantage of beating them out if we end with the same record.

Other Relevant Games

Dolphins @ Jets

• Desired Winner: Jets

5-7 certainly isn’t ideal for Miami, but it also isn’t that far removed from the wildcard race. Hope that their long shot becomes even longer and clears out the wildcard race a bit.

Broncos @ Raiders

• Desired Winner: Raiders

The Broncos have a pretty healthy lead amongst the top of the AFC, so we always want a team that’s not in the playoff hunt to take a playoff contender down a peg

Recommended Viewing Schedule

• Sunday Early Game: Bengals @ Bills (FOX)

• Sunday Afternoon Game: Broncos @ Raiders (CBS)

• Sunday Night Game: Texans @ Chiefs (NBC/Peacock)

• Monday Night Game: Eagles @ Chargers (ESPN)

tl;dr, Who do we want to win?

• Texans over Chiefs
• Jets over Dolphins
• Bengals over Bills
• Raiders over Broncos