URGENT: Buffalo Bills PASS RUSH Has Disappeared—Is Blitzing the Only Hope Now?

URGENT: Buffalo Bills PASS RUSH Has Disappeared—Is Blitzing the Only Hope Now?

With the Buffalo Bills pass rush in a major slump, it’s time to dial up the blitz. I’m breaking that down and more today on Locked on Bills. You are Locked on Bills, your daily Buffalo Bills podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. What’s up, Bills Mafia? It’s Joe Marino. author of the herd mentality substack, co-host of the locked on NFL scouting podcast, co-host of the NFL first read podcast, and I’m your host of Locked On Bills. Locked on Bills is a proud part of the Locked On podcast network, now the number one sports podcast network. Want to thank you for making Locked on Bills your first listen every day. And a big welcome and shout out to our everydayers. You know who you are. Those of you who never miss a single episode. I appreciate you all being here very, very much. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. Well, folks, welcome in. It’s time for Herd Mentality, the weekly episode where you control our discussion. And we have some great things lined up to discuss today, including some thoughts on the style of offense that the Bills run, a good question about Ray Davis, some Shaq Thompson, Terrell Bernard conversation, but we start with a couple of questions that are rooted in the Bills defense and the pass rush. So, let’s talk about that. Justin says, “How do you weigh the performance of the defense along with the running game?” I am asking how you feel the defense played maybe even over the past two to three weeks given that they have been on the field less based on the run game’s success. It’s a good question and I will say this. Outside of the Steelers game, I don’t believe the run game has really contributed to helping the defense. And I’d say that the offense has actually put the defense in some really, really bad spots over the last four games. And the defense has overcome quite a bit of it. And they’ve found ways to get stops. They’re winning situational football at a much higher rate than they were earlier in the year. They’re getting takeaways at a higher clip. They have multiple takeaways in four of the last six games. And I do think that Shawn McDermott’s involvement with the play calling has mattered a ton. Now, we don’t know to what extent, but we know that he’s more involved. That has helped. Getting Taylor Rap out of the lineup has mattered. and getting Jordan Puyer into the lineup has mattered. We’ve seen Taylor Rap, Tradavius White, and Christian Benford play drastically better once Taylor Rap was out of the equation. But I will say there’s still plenty to be concerned about with this defense. Now, we all know that the run defense is shaky. They’ve certainly had some good moments really the second half against Houston, the entire Steelers game. They’ve fared pretty well. But my biggest concern with this pass rush is with the defense. My biggest concern with the defense is the pass rush. It is cold. It’s in a big slump. Let me give you some metrics. Over the last four games, so since the Kansas City game, the Bills have a 1.8% sack rate. Dead last in the NFL over the last four games. They have two sacks in four games. They’re 30th in pressure rate at 26.4%. They’re 31st in pressure rate over expectation at minus 6.61%. You might be asking, what is pressure rate over expectation? It’s the amount of rushers you send at the quarterback and how long the quarterback holds onto the football and then an expected pressure that would come based on those variables. The Bills are 22nd in average time to pressure. So when they do get pressure, it doesn’t really get there fast. The average is 2.64 seconds. 22nd in the NFL. And the average time to throw against the Bills is 2.62 seconds. It’s not a good math equation there, right? When you’re pressure doesn’t get there until 2.64 64 seconds on average, but the average throw gets off in 2.62 seconds. Well, you’re not getting pressure fast enough. You’re not getting sacks. You’re not getting pressure. It’s a major concern. So, I’m optimistic about a lot of things with this defense. I think they’re playing some good situational ball, but they’re gonna have to find some pass rush if they’re going to win these big games down the stretch. and go on any type of a meaningful playoff run. Bill’s WZA says this. You mentioned the importance of the Bills pass rush improving, but how other than the improved use of simulated pressures and stunts, I’m struggling to see a path. Here are the possibilities, but they all have holes. And Bill’s WZA gives five different possibilities. Number one is Joey Bosa gets healthier. Well, it’s got a hamstring. I think the the benefit if he does miss a game or so with the hamstring is maybe it does help that wrist get right. Number two is Ed Oliver comes back which is a big unknown. I still think that’s aggressive to consider before the postseason. TJ Sanders makes a big jump which seems unlikely. Well yeah especially with them playing defensive end mostly. Number four is a practice squad defensive end makes an impact which seems far-fetched. And number five, we can blitz more, but I think we will see this week how a quarterback like Burrow kills the blitz. Any other ideas? Well, I I have some ideas that I’ll share. I do think that Morgan Fox is a player that interests me off the practice squad. Now, look, I agree with you. It’s a little farfetched. We’re talking about a guy that’s been on the couch for several months and is now in Buffalo. Now, he’s been at times an effective pass rusher in the NFL, but I think the Bills got to figure out if he can help. And he’s been around for a couple weeks now. If he can help, they got to get him in the lineup. You mentioned growth from TJ Sanders, and I think if you have him rushing more inside, that could happen. But I’d extend that to Deion Walker. You know, he’s still obviously he’s a rookie, and I think the splash plays have kind of diminished a bit from him. If he can recapture some of that and and show some timely pass rush, that would be helpful. How about more from Larry Aenjobi? I think he’s been very disappointing. He’s supposed to be a guy that can help with pass rush in this style of defense. More from Greg Russo, more from AJ Aanessa, maybe Javon Solomon, although boy, they phased him out in a big way, right? Hey, they gave him a few weeks where they gave him some chances and lately he’s not really been playing. I think the answer is you got to blitz. You got to become a more blitz aggressive defense. Let me give you some metrics on the Bills when they blitz over the last four games. So, this is in concert with the pass rush slump that I’ve been talking about and didn’t improve at all against Pittsburgh. Of course, they got the big play with the Bosa strip sack, but that’s about it. The last four games when the Bills blitz, opposing quarterbacks are seven of 18 for 94 yards with two interceptions and one sack. It’s a passer rate. It’s a passer rating of 16.7, which is by far the lowest in the NFL. They have by far the best adjusted net yards per attempt when blitzing. third lowest completion percentage over expectation, fifth fastest time to pressure. So, you have some good things going. Now, here’s the other side of that. You’re not actually getting a lot of pressure. The Bills pressure rate over the last four games when they blitz is 31.6% which is 28th in the league. And you’re 30th in pressure over expectation. So you’re blitzing but not necessarily getting pressure but you are affecting the quarterback because obviously there’s not a lot of good results for those quarterbacks when the Bills do blitz. So I think they got to look into this. They got to do something to help. I think in some ways the coverage improving is very very helpful but you got to complement that with some rush. And boy this pass rush is just not there. So, I’m hopeful that some of this can come together, but I think you make a good point. I mean, how does it really improve? Hopefully, it’s some of those things happening. Hopefully, Bosa can get healthy, but I thought this pass rush was going to be really special with that Oliver and Michael Hoy. And boy, it has just not been that way over the last four weeks, which is crazy because the the defense feels like it’s had some really good moments, but not because of pass rush. So, we’ll see. We’ll see what this group can get done. And I think for the questions we have about the inconsistency of the offense, which is pretty obvious to to see, can they get pass rush? Can they get run defense? Right? It’s it’s it’s an inconsistent football team. It’s a very capable football team. We’ve seen all of the elements come together, just not at the same time. Can it happen down the stretch? The Bills have been a pretty good December team. Have some good tests. Obviously the Bengals. Bengals and Patriots the next two. Find out some stuff. You get the Eagles in there. Let’s go. Let’s find out. Let’s find out if they can put it all together here for a run in December. All right. Coming up next, I have some pretty direct obvious numbers to share with you about how good this Bill’s defense is with Shaq Thompson on the field compared to when he’s off the field. We’ll do that here next, folks. Be sure to stick with me. The holidays are here, which means gift hunting season is on. 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For a limited time, save on the perfect gift by visiting aura frames.com to get $35 off Aura’s bestselling Carver Matt Frames, named number one by Wire Cutter by using promo code locked on at checkout. That’s a frames.com. Promo code locked on. This deal is exclusive to listeners and frames sell out fast, so order yours now to get it in time for the holidays. Support the show by mentioning us at checkout. Terms and conditions apply. Welcome back, folks. Next question today comes from Cole. Cole says, “You’ve said, and it’s plain to me as well, that the defense looks better with Shaq Thompson in at Mike linebacker. I have to assume the Bills see it too. When both are healthy, will they go to Shaq or stick with Bernard? seems like they might stick with their guy to a fault as they tend to, but the defense is just better with Shaq. I’m with you, Cole. It’s clear as day to me. And this defense is better with Shaq Thompson on the field. Shaq Thompson’s a better player than Terrell Bernard. He is. Now, there’s youth and upside with Terrell Bernard. And he is their guy. Although, you know, McDermott and Bean were part of the regime that picked Shaq Thompson in the first round when they had Luke Keequley and Thomas Davis. So, yeah, look, there’s a little bit of that for sure. And I give some grace to Terrell Bernard because he’s been battling through some injuries. There’s no doubt about it. But even in his best moments, he’s not a great downhill player. Now, when he can process fast and trigger, you know, he can shoot some gaps and make some plays. But in terms of consistent read and react downhill linebacker play, taking on contact, deconstructing blocks, taking on blocks with the right leverage, tackling, those are not strengths of Terrell Bernard. And you can live with some of that because of what he brought in coverage, but with the coverage decline, it’s like, boy, this is just not a player that’s helping this defense. You hear Bobby Babage and Shawn McDermott talk about the leadership components of Terrell Bernard, and we see him, he’s a very big-time communicator. He’s involved with getting guys lined up, but I’m not even sure he’s always right about that. He’s communicating a lot of times and the ball’s about to be snapped and I think it throws off the defense and the rhythm of just playing it down. I think all of that’s more clean with Shaq out there. It’s pretty clear to me. But I always like to back up any opinion that I have with some data. So, let’s give you some data. EPA, you heard me talk about this all the time. I think it’s a really meaningful metric in the NFL. expected points added. When Shaq Thompson is on the field, the Bills defense has an EPA per snap of minus.141. Without him on the field, they are plus.065. Now, look, I know that those are not very familiar numbers for a lot of people. So, let me make this very practical for you with Shaq Thompson on the field. That minus.141 in defensive EPA is would be fourth in the entire league this year, which and it’s the same number that the Broncos are, the Denver Broncos in defensive EPA. That’s the Bills defense with Shaq Thompson on the field has an EPA that is the same as what the Denver Broncos have been this year. And everybody loves that Broncos defense, right? Without him, that minus.065, that would be 28th in the NFL and the same EPA that you have for the Tennessee Titans defense. Now, look, it’s it’s not perfect. It’s not a perfect way to to truly say, hey, the Bills are a top five defense with Shaq Thompson on the field and they’re a bottom five defense without him, but it is telling, right? It’s there’s different variables that matter that you got to be mindful of, but it’s telling. And the Bills have run 171 more plays without Shaq Thompson on the field. Now look, Shaq Thompson’s on the wrong side of 30. He’s had injuries, you know, significant injuries the last two years. He’s obviously had stuff that’s forced him to be in and out of the lineup. But that type of guy is something I crave for this defense. And look, you see these linebackers like they kind of age well, right? Like Bobby Wagner still going, Deario Davis, Levante David. Boy, I’d keep Shaq Thompson around because at a minimum, he’s a heck of a depth player and the leadership feels awesome. Listening to some of the comments that were made by Shawn McDerman and Bobby Babage about him. And then, you know, Mcderman even said he addressed the defense this this week. And then when Shaq Thompson was asked about addressing the defense, he said, “No, we keep all that stuff in house.” Man, this guy’s a dude. He didn’t want anybody know that. I’m into Shaq Thompson for sure. Andy says, “What are your thoughts on moving Terrell Bernard to Matt Milano’s spot at some point in the future?” I recall folks putting him on the outside when he was first drafted and perhaps a necessary adjustment for him to have success going forward. Love the idea. I absolutely love this idea. I want to go on my Terrell Bernard journey with you right now. And you you may have seen my reaction to the pick of Terrell Bernard. I was on a live stream and I reacted to that pick and I had a lot of criticism for the pick. And a big part of the reason I was critical of the pick was because I viewed Terrell Bernard as a Matt Milano replacement and not a Tummaine Edmonds replacement. And at the time that Milano just signed an extension and Tmaine Edmonds was up for a contract after the season and I didn’t think they would pay them both and I was right about that. And so I looked at Terrell Bernard as a guy that would succeed Matt Milano, not Tummaine Edmonds because I thought he was best suited to play weak side pursuit style linebacker, not downhill Mike. And then after the Bills let Tummaine Edmonds walk, they talked about their desire to switch from having a more traditional Mike linebacker and weakside linebacker to having two matchup style linebackers. They wanted two Milanos. They didn’t want Edmonds and Milano. They wanted two Milanos. And so I was like, “Okay, well that’s helpful in understanding the reason for the pick. I don’t really like the idea of Terrell Bernard playing Mike linebacker and I think the concerns that I had with that have absolutely manifested in the way he’s played. And so I am hungry for the Bills to go back to a more traditional Mike linebacker and a weak side linebacker and go ahead and get Terrell Bernard on the weak side. I think that’s how you can maximize him. You’ve made a commitment to him. I think he can help this defense, but not not as much as a Mike. Like him more as a weak side pursuit style player. Now, I’m not talking about the Bills getting Jeremiah Troder or Leavon Kirkland to play Mike linebacker or Brandon Spikes or Preston Brown. That’s not what I’m talking about. But look across the league. Some of my favorite Mike linebackers right now. Let’s start with Jack Campbell with the Lions. Remember when I yearned for him in the first round where the Bills picking 30th overall or something the year he came out? Boy, people had some fire for me for thinking, why would you want Jack Campbell? I mean, he’s throwback linebacker. He can’t play in coverage. Well, this guy’s about to get paid like $20 million a year on an extension with the Lions. And he didn’t even make it to the Bills. I’d love to have Jack Campbell. Jordan Brooks with the Dolphins. Robert Splain with the Patriots. Carson Schwinger who the Browns just drafted. looks awesome. Devin Lloyd, Aziz Al Shier with the Houston Texans. Get one of those type guys. It’ll make the defense better and you’ll get more out of Terrell Bernard. So, I am here for it for sure. All right, we got more to do. We’ll get into this Ray Davis question and then we’ll talk about the Bills style of offense here next. Folks, be sure to stick with me. NFL Sundays move fast. One big play and suddenly everything feels different. That’s what makes live betting with FanDuel so exciting. You’re not just watching the game, you’re reacting to it in real time. With FanDuel, you can place bets as the action unfolds. Every drive, every momentum swing, every highlight moment. And live betting is best when the game starts to shift. The receiver gets hot, the defense tightens up, or momentum flips after a turnover and FanDuel lets you jump into that moment. Just think about that Bills game, right? Bills are down seven to three coming into the third quarter. Joey Bosa strip sack. Christian Benford scoop and score. The game completely flipped upside down right there in that moment. And you can get in on that action over at FanDuel. They have live spreads and money lines that adjust instantly. Player props update as guys heat up. You can bet who scores the next touchdown, drive results, totals, and more. It keeps you locked into every snap, every drive, and every possibility. So, if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. FanDuel, the game moves fast and so can you. All right, let’s get to this Ray Davis question here from Ryan. Ryan says, “Primarily, what scheme was Ray Davis behind against the Steelers? He had some impressive runs and I’m concerned with Cook’s workload as the season progresses. So against the Steelers, Ray Davis had five zone runs and four gap runs. And real quick, zone runs and gap runs are different styles of runs. Uh gap runs, there’s a predetermined track where the running back’s supposed to go and the blocking scheme is designed to create a hole. With zone runs, the offensive linemen block a zone, right? They block a direction and then the running back’s job is to make the blocks. Right. Right. So, they’re very very different. One is the gap runs are are predicated on vertical push, right? And the zone runs are more predicated on horizontal push and then you let the running back figure it out. They’re very different. Ray Davis is a better gap runner. He just is. It’s been pretty clear if you watch him in college, if you watch him in the NFL, he’s just a better gap runner. And so against Pittsburgh, he had five zone runs, four gap. James Cook had 16 zone runs, 15 gaps. So they were very balanced with their zone and gap distribution, but the success rates are really, really different. And so for the season, not just against Pittsburgh, Ray Davis has a 38% success rate when executing zone runs, 53% when executing gap runs. So you might be asking like, why is this the case? Well, it just comes down to vision. Ray Davis doesn’t necessarily have that ability to anticipate where those holes are going to be to put his foot in the dirt and get downhill. He’s not that elusive, right? He doesn’t have that cut back ability that you see with a James Cook where that allows James Cook to be really special with the zone runs. And again, with zone runs, you got to make the blocks, right? Puts a little bit of stress on the vision. Not saying that Ray Davis has bad vision, it’s just not the type of vision that’s super successful with zone. And it’s not just like your ability to see it. You got to be able to to press the line of scrimmage. And and a lot of times with how you manipulate that those initial few steps, that’s going to allow those those lanes to widen. It’s going to influence a second level. You know, there’s a lot of nuance that goes into it. It’s not just like, hey, here’s the ball, go run, right? There’s a lot that running backs do to help create the space for themselves, right? It’s not just blocking, right? They got to make those blocks, right? And and a lot of times they can help those blocks with the tracks they take. And so, you just don’t see that skill from Ray Davis at a very high level. Now, when it’s a predetermined track and he can, you know, get the ball and go and, you know, run run the grass obviously, but, you know, it’s not as much nuance involved with it. It’s it’s a better fit for what he what he does. I I think the best example I can give you that explains what I’m talking about, if you remember the sequence with Ray Davis against Pittsburgh specifically where the Bills ran the ball three times in a row and the first two runs with Ray Davis were awesome. I think he got like maybe 10 yards for each run. Then that third run it was like a negative two and then the next play was a false start and the the the drive was derailed right there. On that third run, everyone’s thinking, “Ah, Joe Brady ran the ball too many times in a row.” Not really. Ray Davis just took a bad track. If you watch that play, and I put this in the all 22 clips, I’m pretty sure. So, if you’re part of the Subtext or the Substack, you saw this play and me kind of talking about it. Ray Davis is pressing to the left. And he continues that track to the left despite the edge being set firmly. And then Cam Hayward leveraged I think the B gap like, and Ray just he’s just continued to go that way. Like, no, dude. Like, you got to you you’re that’s what you’re reading that you got to see that and get your foot in the dirt and work back the other direction. And he didn’t. And it’s a minus two yard run and everyone’s mad at Joe Brady because he ran the ball too many times in a row. It’s like, no, Ray Davis needs to take the right track with the ball. So, hopefully that kind of helps you understand. I think that’s always going to be a bit of a limiting factor with Ray Davis. they give be a good depth back, but you know, I think I just I haven’t seen the growth with zone runs in the NFL and and that parallels with some of the warts that I saw in college. Bridget says, “How much input do you think Josh has on the offensive scheme scheme with Joe Brady?” his what are we doing comment plus the all 22 that you shared showed options has me wondering if he’s just following instructions and getting frustrated or if he has any input and they both planned wrong. And so this was a question that Bridget sent in over after the Houston game. Josh is heavily involved in the architecture of the offense. He talks a lot about his communication with Joe Brady and how he shares with him what he likes and what he doesn’t. Now, it’s ultimately Joe Brady’s call, but Josh absolutely has ownership in what is happening. And so, I’m not trying to like deflect blame from Joe Brady to Josh Allen, but he’s got he’s got a lot of say in what’s going on, right? Got a lot of say in what’s going on. Nicole says, “How much of the transition into a run offense is a result of Shawn McDermott and his focus on being conservative?” We have Josh Allen. I know you need a good run offense, but seems that the Bills went away from what made the offense special. Now, I don’t want to repeat what I just said, but I I want to address something that Nicole said here about Shawn McDermott being conservative. That that’s just not true. That’s just not true. whether it’s going for it on fourth downs, um you know, even defensively being aggressive in some high leverage moments. Like Shawn is very much an aggressive coach and there’s like years of data that fir that makes that very very clear. Shawn McDermott talks about being two dimensional and the threat of being two-dimensional. He was the head coach when Brian Dball threw the ball 20 times in a row to start a game. So for all the things that made the Bills offense special at one point and Shawn McDerman was the head coach too. He’s just not he’s not a conservative coach. He was actually asked about this. He’s like he’s like I cut my teeth coming up under Andy Reid. Andy Reid gets yelled at all the time for not running the ball. I think what we have to be mindful of with some of the direction of the Bills offense is the sustainability conversation. Josh Allen is going to be 30 in May. For years, the conversation was Josh Allen cannot sustain the style of play that he has. He needs more help. He can’t always put the the cape on. He can’t always be the superhero. He needs a run game. Well, now the run game’s here and has been here for the last two and a half years. And now it’s like, wow, what happened? It used to be so special and look different. It’s really an important layer for for Josh Allen’s longevity. Now, here’s where the Bills have failed with this. You got to give them some receiving talent to maximize the passing opportunities. I’m not saying that you you should ever be like extremely runoriented to the point where, you know, you’re not passing the ball enough. Josh Allen, your quarterback, that should always be a huge part of what you do. I think the Bills should pass the ball a little bit more. But I think we have to be mindful of this needle to thread. It’s really real. This run game is important for the longevity of Josh Allen’s career. I don’t think we could watch 2020 or 2021 Josh Allen into his late 30s like I hope to. I think this is part of the the the evolution of where it needed to go. And and the Bills are really good at running the ball. Like, do you remember the Denver playoff game last year? That was awesome. James Cook was awesome against Kansas City in the ASU championship game. It’s a huge part of like winning football. They just have to be better when they do throw it. And that starts with getting him some weapons that you get excited to throw the ball to. And so, I think there’s there’s a lot to it. And You know, I Josh, I think he’s probably aligned with a lot of this. I think he understands this. I don’t want him to be Cam Newton. I don’t I mean, the Cam Newton career was I mean, it was quickly over with, right? Like, he had that MVP season in 2015 and they went to the Super Bowl and then it’s like, is it, right? Like, that was kind of it. And so, I want to see Josh Allen. I want to see him play into his 40s. I don’t have any interest in seeing someone else playing quarterback for the Buffalo Bills. And so if this is part of preserving that, all right, and they’re good at it. It’s not like they’re running the ball and they’re not good at it. That would be a a different conversation. That’s just not the case. So, I think it’s important for us to be mindful of that in how we react to and consider the style of play that we’ve seen the Bills kind of evolve into here over the last two and a half years. All right, folks. That’s going to do it for us here today on the podcast. Looking forward to starting to focus on the Bengals. Uh crossover Thursday with James Rene of Lockdown Bengals is coming up and we’ll have Bill Squad on Thursday as well. I have my primer. We’ll do the things that we do to get ready for a football game. Obviously an important one. The Bills need to stack some wins and obviously the the Bengals feel like they got a shot to win the AFC North, so will be a high stakes football game. It’s December. These ones are big. We’ll find out. All right, folks. That’s going to do it for us here today on the podcast. Thanks for being here. As always, I kindly ask that you share, subscribe, rate, and review. Have a great rest of your day. Go Bills and I look forward to catching up with you again real soon.

Buffalo Bills’ pass rush sputters as Joe Marino urges a blitz-heavy approach to spark the defense’s playoff hopes. Are personnel adjustments and tactical shifts enough to overcome recent struggles and make Buffalo a contender down the stretch?
Joe Marino dissects the Bills’ slumping pass rush, revealing startling stats and the critical need for more blitz packages. The conversation covers Shaq Thompson’s game-changing impact at linebacker, Terrel Bernard’s ideal role, and how scheme decisions might affect Josh Allen’s longevity. Listeners get an inside look at Ray Davis’ fit as a gap runner versus zone concepts, plus how McDermott’s purported conservatism shapes Buffalo’s offensive identity. With AFC rival Cincinnati Bengals looming, Buffalo faces key decisions to reclaim defensive dominance and offensive balance.
Don’t miss this sharp analysis of the Bills’ midseason adjustments, roster debates, and what needs to click for a successful December run.
Visit https://www.thejoemarino.com/ for details on Substack, Subtext, Merch and more!

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