Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview & Prediction | PFF

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Preview & Prediction | PFF

The PFF Plus holiday sale is going on right now. Use the promo code holiday30 to get yourself 30% off a PFF Plus subscription. That means that you get everything. The grades, the premium stats, all of the fantasy tools, all the betting tools, all the draft tools. It’s everything a football fan could want year round. Holiday 30. That’s what gets you 30% off that year-long PFF plus subscription at subscribe.pff.com. [Music] The Colts and the Jacks. all of a sudden a massive matchup. Well, I say all of a sudden, I I feel like this division was always going to come down to the wire. It maybe didn’t look like that early on when the Colts were rattling off win after win after win, but they’ve slowed down a little bit. And uh now Jacksonville with tiebreaker top of this division. Both of these teams eight and four. So, this is a massive game here. Dalton, what do you think about Jacksonville’s side of things with Trevor Lawrence coming off of a really big game last week? So, the Jaguars are going to present a different look than what the Colts have seen for most of the season. So, on defense, the Colts have seen 12 personnel at at the second lowest rate in the NFL this year, right around 15% of their plays. That’s it. And the Jaguars, we’ve talked so much about how Brettton Strange, the tight end, is really the key to their offense and their their ability to change personnel packages, right? and get into 12 personnel. Two tight ends on the field with Strange out there, Hunter Long out there, Johnny Munt could be one of those guys as a really good blocker out there. So, when you look at what the Jags are doing this year in 12 personnel, without Strange, they were running it at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. With him, it’s at about a league average rate, and I could argue they should ramp it up even more so because it’s been their best offensive package by far in team offense grade. In 12 personnel, they rank seventh, fifth in EPA per play, seventh in yards per carry because the blocking has been so good. and Travis ET and Bashel Tutin have been running so well this season and 11th in yards for pass. It just feels like those play action opportunities especially for Trevor Lawrence have been more optimal for him and he’s been able to get bigger throwing windows to throw into I think it’s something that is very interesting. The Colts at times will go into a fiveman front but when the Jaguars see fiveman defensive lines they don’t care. They’re just going to run through it anyway because they believe they can physically win that battle up front and run right through them. So, I think the Colts are going to have to make some adjustments when they see Strange out there on the field with either long or months and the Jags are getting in these heavy sets. I’m curious to see one, how physical they’re going to play up front, especially without DeForest Buckner, and two, how they’re going to react in the passing game and how the Jags are going to attack them in the passing game if the Bills get in or sorry, if the Colts get into a base defense with three linebackers out there or possibly with five defensive linemen out there. There’s a fascinating personnel battle to me. But again, I showed you seventh in offensive grade and 12 personnel. They’re in the low 20s when they’re in anything else. This is their ideal set. I think Liam Cohen should go to it more with Brett and Strange healthy, and it could cause the Colts a real problem here on defense. Yeah, I I see in the chat uh somebody saying the Jags need to be talked about more. I mean, the Jags have we’ve talked about the Jags plenty this year because when it looks good, man, it looks really good. They’ve got a lot of different ways that they can attack you. They feel good about both of the running backs out of the back field. You mentioned how important Brenton Strange is them to staying multiple, getting Brian Thomas Jr. back, but Parker Washington being a player for them throughout the season. I think a lot is at Liam Cohen’s disposal. And when again, when it has looked good for Jacksonville, they are a really tough team to prepare for and to defend. Now, on the Colts side of things, I talked about this in the review show that we did on Monday, but I just think that it’s paramount for everything that they’re doing. weeks 1 through eight when the Colts were absolutely dominant this year, almost a 0.20 EPA per play on early downs. That was one of the best marks in the NFL. I believe that would have been top five, if not top three, when it comes to how well they are moving the ball on first and second down. So, we talk about the Colts being a heavy run team, that rushing is in their identity. Getting Jonathan Taylor started early and often is very important for them. They were able to do that at will on first and second down in the early parts of the season, but as of late, weeks 9 through1 13, they have a negative EPA per play on early downs, which is probably, I would assume, bottom 20 in the league, I don’t have that list up right in front of me, but that’s just such a difference to go from being a top three team when it comes to efficiency and moving the ball in early downs, and then being a bottom 20 team in that regard. So, they’ve got to be able to get back to the run game. They’ve got to be able to have confidence on first and second down to be able to do that at will. And it’s not exactly a good matchup for them because over the last five weeks, the Jags are ninth in PFF run defense grade overall, not just on early downs, overall. And they’re 14th in EPA per rush allowed. So, it will really be the Colts getting back to this being a strength, not necessarily them taking advantage of an inferior opponent. You know, I think that when we do these previews, oftent times it’s what we’re looking at, right? Where are the areas of weakness that teams can exploit against one another? This one to me is just straight up the strength for Indianapolis and what made them so good early on in the year has to just shine brighter. like it has to truly be uh something that they can go to and that they can execute every single week. So, this is less of a oh, the Jags aren’t good in run defense. The Colts will have a bounceback game. And I’m taking Indianapolis in this game to say I think they get back on track. They’ve been in a funk over the last monthish in that regard. And I think they get back on track. I think they give Jacksonville their best here knowing everything that is on the line. So, this one’s going to be a lot of fun to watch. Obviously with these two teams being tied at the top of their division and then of course with Houston sitting right there ready to pounce when one of these teams falls or if both of these teams fall uh for the top of that division. So it’s an important one but I think the Colts get back on track here and I’m going to take Indianapolis to win 23-20. I am actually going to go the other way here. I’m going to go with the home team and the Jacksonville Jaguars. A team with the momentum. The Colts have lost three of four and they’ve rushed for under a 100red yards in each of those three losses. And I think that’s the big problem here is if the Jaguars are going to load the box like Houston did last week and just fully commit to stopping Jonathan Taylor. What is the Colts answer? And they couldn’t get it done enough in the passing game last week. Even though Daniel Jones made some really good throws, it just wasn’t enough against a really good Houston defense. Jacksonville’s defense, especially the coverage unit, is back with their momentum now. They look outstanding. They’ve been one of the best coverage teams in the league over the last few weeks. And I think this game for Jacksonville, if they’re going to win, it falls on three guys. Number one, obviously, is Trevor Lawrence. He’s got to come through in a handful of big moments. You mentioned all the receivers before who have been playing well. Brettton Strange at tight end. Jacobe Myers has been an outstanding addition to this offense as somebody who can just reliably move the chains. And then the two guys on defense I’m looking at Devin Lloyd and Foyer Aluakan at linebacker. Those are the two guys that have to finish tackles, have to finish plays in the run game and dominate this game. You’re right, the Colts offensive line most likely is going to beat up the Jags defensive line a little bit even though that’s a pretty solid unit. If those two at linebacker don’t get washed out on the second level and they can make tackles before Jonathan Taylor can get free, I really think the Jags can make Daniel Jones try to beat them. And I don’t know that he can beat that secondary the way he’s playing right now. I’ve got the Jags 23 to 20. Yeah, and as as simple as is, because I agree with all the points that you just made there, as simple as it is, this really could come down to Daniel Jones has been a turnover machine with fumbles and interceptions over the last month, month and a halfish here. and Trevor Lawrence when he turns the ball over the Jags often lose. Like when when you get a bad Trevor Lawrence game, it’s really hard for this offense to overcome it. And obviously it’s this is a cliche. I think it’s easy to say that it goes as the quarterbacks go. But to me, whoever takes care of the football better, I think probably wins this game. And I think that it’s going to be as simple as that. So very very eager to see which quarterback um is able to help the narrative around them in that regard because if Daniel Jones has another multi-turnover game and he can’t get it done, I think the momentum for this Colts team is really going to start to sputter down the rest of the season and then if if Trevor Lawrence has another game where he throws, you know, too many turnovers and the Jags fall just short, are we then going to be forced to look at the Jags? is just a team that, hey, they might get hot week to week, but it’s not really a team that you can expect to sustain success throughout a playoff run if they end up getting there. I think this game uh will mean a lot towards the narrative on both of those sides.

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema preview the matchup between The Indianapolis Colts and The Jacksonville Jaguars.

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