The Biggest Mistake of the Season..

The Biggest Mistake of the Season..

Four months ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs made arguably one of the biggest, loudest, most franchisealtering decisions in their modern era. They let Mitch Martner go, shipping him off to the Vegas Golden Knights. And sure, nobody was blindsided by this move. Everyone knew Mner was going to get traded eventually. The writing had been on the wall for months, maybe even years. But even with that, this was the kind of move that was either going to age like a masterpiece or blow up right in their face. And so far, it is exploding. Toronto gambled that moving Marner would free up flexibility, change their identity, and open the door for a new version of this team. Instead, Vegas is looking like a contender again, while the Maple Leafs are one of the worst teams in the entire league. And here’s the part that might be a little bit tough for Leafs fans to admit. Their biggest weakness right now is keeping pucks out of their own net. And Mner, he was pretty good at preventing that. One of the best defensive wingers in the league. Toronto didn’t just lose a 90 to 100 point guy. They lost transition control, clean exits, and one of the smartest defensive forwards in hockey. And you can feel that absence on every single blown coverage, every late collapse, every game where they generate enough to win, but don’t defend well enough to finish the job. If there’s one area where the Leafs are really feeling that Mitch Marner absence the most, it’s the power play. For years, this unit has been one of the best in the league, and it’s been their security blanket. The thing that stabilized games when everything else went sideways. They finished first, second, seventh, and ninth in power play efficiency over the last four seasons. And even during scoring slumps, the man advantage usually saved them. But this year, it’s completely the opposite. Toronto sits at the bottom of the league at just 15% and has scored only eight power play goals and has somehow surrendered to short-handed along the way. For a roster built around elite finishers, those numbers are awful. The collapse on the power play really starts before they even get set up. Their zone entries look disjointed and without Mner and recently without Matthews there’s almost no one who can reliably skate the puck in. Knander is the only consistent entry threat which makes everything predictable and easy to defend. And when they do finally get possession, it turns into endless perimeter cycling. There’s no interior threat, no hashmark touches for Tavverar and almost zero passes that actually beat coverage or force defensive rotations. The biggest problem though is losing Mner as the quarterback. He was the one who could actually manipulate defenders buy time under pressure and create many two-on-1s inside the zone with deception alone. Without him, the Leafs are trying to transition Austin Matthews into that role. But that’s not his game. Matthews is a finisher, not a distributor, and playing him high on the wall takes away a scoring threat while giving them none of Mner’s vision or timing. Right now, the Leaf’s power play isn’t a weapon at all. Despite not being able to score on the power play, the Leaf’s 5v5 scoring is still among the best in the league. Surprisingly, they’re putting up 3.3 goals per game at even strength, good for seventh in the NHL right now, and their top guys are still producing. Offense just isn’t the issue. It’s far from it. Everything else is. Defensively, the Leafs have turned into a complete disaster, sitting near the bottom of the league in goals against and giving up chances in ways that just are not sustainable for a team that calls themselves contenders. Pretty much Toronto’s entire defensive structure is collapsing. And on top of that, the defensive zone mistakes are piling up. brutal turnovers, soft plays under pressure, blind passes, panic clears, it’s all happening at once, and it’s no good. And there isn’t a single defenseman right now you could say is playing confidently. The entire blue line looks slow, sloppy, and old. They can’t handle a forch check. They’re getting pinned in their own end, and every puck retrieval almost turns into chaos. Their breakouts are just as bad. They cannot move the puck cleanly out of the zone, and every failed exit results in another wave of pressure against them. And this is where they miss Mitch Martner the most outside of the power play. his two-way presence, his ability to disrupt plays in transition, and the way he killed rushes before they even became dangerous. Their transition game isn’t completely gone, but it’s nowhere near as stable or controlled as it used to be. Every opposing rush feels more dangerous. Every broken play turns into chaos, and the Leafs don’t have that extra layer of insurance he used to provide. It’s a big reason why they keep blowing leads, collapsing late in games, and why every mistake ends up in the back of their net. There is no structure behind anything they do, and the moment they’re all pressured, everything falls apart. But like I said, there are some bright spots on offense. Knander has been the Leaf’s best forward this season, hands down. He’s driving every play every night, scoring at an elite rate, and hasn’t slowed down one bit after his contract year. If anything, he looks even better. With 31 points in 20 games, he’s sitting third in the entire league in points per game. And he’s been the one constant Toronto can actually rely on while everything else around him has been pretty chaotic. And right behind him, one of the biggest bright spots has been Matthew N. He’s taken a real step forward this year, winning board battles, finishing chances, and showing massive growth in his overall game. With 23 points in 20 games, he’s on pace to smash every career high he’s set so far. And he’s evolving from a promising young piece into a legitimate top six power forward. And then backing them up is John Tavvar, who’s having an amazing season of his own. He’s completely defying the aging curve and producing at a top six pace despite shifting roles and tougher matchups. With 28 points in 23 games and leading the team in goals, he’s been one of the most reliable finishers on the roster and a huge part of why the offense hasn’t completely fallen off a cliff. But on the other end of the spectrum is Austin Matthews, who has had a strangely quiet start by his standards. Sure, some of it is injury related, but even when he is in the lineup, he hasn’t consistently generated the same high danger looks that we’re used to seeing from him. And not having Mitch Martyr feeding him the puck definitely plays a role in that. From 2019 to 2024, he scored 257 goals in 350 games. Basically, a 60goal pace over 82 games. Over the last two seasons, 42 goals in 85 games, which is still good, but closer to a 40 goal pace, not the automatic elite level that he had established before. The finishing hasn’t been the same either. Obviously, his shooting percentage from 2019 to 2024 sat at 16.3%. But since then, it’s dropped to 12.8%, 8% which is a noticeable dip for a player known for his scoring efficiency. And this year, Matthews is generating just 3.78 shots per game, his lowest output since the 2018 2019 season. He’s still dangerous, still impacting games, and he’s still someone that defense is playing around, but he hasn’t shown the same unstoppable goalcoring form that defined his prime years. And the lack of Mner’s playmaking touch is unquestionably part of that picture. The Leafs kice has also been an absolute joke this season. They’ve already used four different goalies due to some injuries and nothing has really been too promising. Anthony Stolars went through a rough stretch filled with soft goals and visible confidence issues. Primo and Hillbe were thrown in out of necessity, but neither of them looked pretty NH already. Both were uncomfortable, overwhelmed, and clearly not the long-term answer. The only bright spot is Joseph Wall, who returned from LTIR and immediately looked like the most reliable option they’ve had. In limited games, he’s posted a 921 save percentage and a 2.74 goals against average. He’s picked off right where he left off after last year’s playoff run. Right now, Wool might legitimately be the only chance that the Leafs have to stay afloat. If he doesn’t stay healthy or he cools off, things could get pretty ugly for this team. But the road for Joseph Wall is not going to be easy as the Leafs get outshot pretty badly every night. They give up the 10th most shots in the league and sit at a negative 3.6 shot attempt differential per game, 29th in the NHL. You see it on the ice, long stretches without the puck, defending non-stop, and always reacting instead of driving the play. A huge part of that collapse traces back to losing Mitch Mner. He was one of their best possession and transition guys, extending ozone time, killing plays in the neutral zone, and turning chaos into clean exits. Without him, Toronto can’t hold the puck and can’t break out cleanly, and they face constant waves of pressure. Now, obviously the Maple Leafs are in a pretty bad spot considering they’re sinking to the bottom of the standings, but we’re only 25 games in, right? Well, since the NHL moved to the wild card format back in 2013 2014, 77% of teams in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving end up making the postseason, obviously excluding co years. Every season falls between 11 and 13 teams, which means the standings at this point in the year usually hold up for the most part. And for a team like Toronto, that is bad news. The Leaf course still has strong individual pieces, but as a group, they’re showing real limitations. Paired with uncertain goalending and poor shot suppression, and it creates the problem that scoring alone can’t fix. Matthews is looking more human than usual only adds to the pressure. Joseph Wave is a bright spot, but he’s just one part of the equation, and he can’t cover for everything happening in front of him. At the same time, the Eastern Conference is getting better. Several young teams have taken noticeable steps this year, making the race even tighter. If this continues, the season could shift from a slow start into a larger question about management and whether the roster construction actually works. If this is the direction the Leafs chose without Martner, the results so far are making it very clear. They bet big and they bet wrong. [Music]

The Maple Leafs traded Mitch Marner hoping it would fix everything. Instead, Vegas is thriving and Toronto is falling apart. The powerplay collapsed, the defense looks broken, and even Auston Matthews is struggling without Marner’s playmaking. Joseph Woll is the only thing keeping this season alive. How bad has this really gotten… and can the Leafs recover?

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