DK’s Daily Shot of Pirates: Kelly vs. analytics

DK’s Daily Shot of Pirates: Kelly vs. analytics

[Music] [Applause] It’s been really entertaining, I’m not going to lie, to parse some of the statements that Don Kelly’s made in various sessions over the off season related to the coaches that he’s brought in because there’s a very obvious pattern that he doesn’t apparently want anyone to know. while at the same time advertising it. Good morning to you. Good Thursday morning. I’m Dan Kvachovic of DK Pittsburgh Sports. This is Daily Shot of Pirates presented by the Northshore Tavern. It comes your way bright and early every weekday if you’re into football andor hockey. I also offer daily shots of Steelers and Penguins in the same place that you found this. Guys like Tony Beasley have been added to the staff. Beasley, for anybody who doesn’t know, his previous stints with the Pirates. First off, just a great great guy. One of those coaches who everywhere he’s been, including in Pittsburgh, including in Altuna, where he was the manager, has just been beloved by his players. also and relevant here, just kind of an old school baseball guy. Now, not as old school as Gene Lamont, who’s almost certainly not going to be back in the 2026 season. He showed up to help Kelly out when he initially was promoted upon Derek Shelton’s firing. That was never intended to be some permanent or even long range arrangement. But what Kelly has persisted in doing throughout all of this is making clear what he actually values in the people around him at field level. And he does so in the best way. If you’re a high school or college student and they tell you that you need to write an essay on the importance of studying turtles in the Galopagos and you begin your essay, first sentence, topic, sentence. It is of course important that we’re all aware of all there is to know about the turtles and the Gopagos. That’s what Donnie does. That’s what he’s been doing. He’ll begin every assessment of any of these guys by saying, you know, the analytics and the stats, they they mean a lot. They really help me. At which point, he’ll come up with some instant dot dot dot, but to resume describing whoever it is that he’s talking about. And this shouldn’t surprise anybody. I I reported last July, it was meaning this past July, this summer from Seattle, in extensive detail, what Kelly and his staff would talk about as it related to this sort of thing and how they felt, and this was of course without giving their names or anything, that they were being to an extent preached down to from above, meaning Ben Cherington and management, meaning the analytics army, the five gazillion people that Cherington has hired to treat us to real excellence, which by the way is not to be confused with more excellence. That’s next year. This year’s excellence, this year’s who knows how much money Cherington put into these guys that he could have put into real life baseball players. the results of a lot of their work, and I have no doubt they were doing actual work, was to be treated and handled, I wouldn’t say so much with disrespect, but with a a lack of priority, lack of urgency. They’re down there. They’re living it. They’re standing behind the cage. They’re watching every millimeter of every movement that every pitcher makes. and they’re not going to be all that receptive to someone telling them what to do from a cubicle. The information is legitimately welcome. The information gets put to use. The instruction, according to them, takes it too far. And that storyline that I’m describing for you that I began laying out in Seattle, that’s not going away. That’s not going away. That’s not going to go away. Even if things go well this off season and this coming spring training and even into actual games, if anything, it’ll get heightened because the people at field level are going to be emboldened because again, they’re the ones physically out there doing it. They’re the ones communicating with the athletes. They’re the ones who are seen and heard. I once observed a former manager of the Pirates, a very recent former manager who remains quite popular in the city and should tremendous human being sit in his office at PNC Park. He and I were just having a casual conversation in there and one of these types, these analytics types, just kind of trapes into the office, which was fine. The door was open, obligatory, white collar, perfectly ironed pants, perfect hair, all this stuff. You can just picture, right? and silently approaches the desk and sets down a compendium of 8 1/2 by 11 paper that had to be half as thick as an old school phone book. I don’t recall exactly what the manager and I were talking about. I wish I could cuz it would make the story better. But what I do remember is that this amazing man never broke stride in his sentence on this totally unrelated topic while he picked up that giant brick of papers, held it vertically, and allowed it to plunge to the bottom of the waste basket that was to the right of his chair. Boom. Oh god, I love that so much. When we come back, J1Q If you’re looking for a great dining experience, look no further than Northshore Tavern. Located directly across Federal Street from PNC Park, next door to Mike’s Beer Bar, Northshore Tavern is Pittsburgh’s home for steak on a stone. Enjoy your steak finished on a hot lava stone in front of you, where you ensure each piece is cooked to exactly your liking. or try their rotating selection of entre, hot sandwiches, salads, and burgers, all while enjoying the ambiance dedicated to the great players and history of the Pittsburgh Pirates all around you. Come see why everyone’s talking about Northshore Tavern and Steak on a Stone. It’s Gun Storage Check Week. Help prevent unwanted access to your firearms. No one wants their unsecured gun to be used in an accident, a suicide, or a crime. Use lock boxes, safes, and locks to secure your firearms. Learn more at gunstoch checkck.org. That’s gunstoch check.org. Brought to you by NSSF, the firearm industry trade association. [Music] Today’s J1 Q comes from Mitch who asks, “So DK, you’re saying there’s only going to be a $20 million difference between the salary cap’s ceiling and the floor. The Dodgers payroll just now was over 300 million and the Pirates were at 87 million. How do they close that gap? I always welcome these because it gives me a chance to explain stuff that really is just not common knowledge and I don’t know that it should be among baseball fans, among people who are principally baseball only fans. the $20 million difference that I cite between the ceiling and the floor. I do that in pointing toward the NFL and the NHL. Now, that sometimes goes to 25. I’ve never seen one hit 30. So, that’s the generally accepted range. That’s where you need to have teams getting in. And of course, because of the expanded revenue sharing that follows, being able to fit there comfortably. Anytime the transition to a salary cap system comes up, I feel obligated to first point out that all players have gotten paid. Nobody in the NFL, nobody in the NHL ever got hosed. It won’t happen in baseball either, if only because it would not pass muster if that team were to be sued. However much money, put it another way, that the Dodgers owe Shoi Otani for his current contracts, for his deferred payments or whatever, he’s going to get it. The numbers that I keep throwing out there, and they’re not based on anything other than me just making stuff up. So, please don’t take this as actual information is that you could have a $200 million ceiling and a floor at 180. So, there’s your range. There’s your 20. Now, that means, of course, that the Dodgers would have to come down from 300 and the Pirates would have to come way up from 87. Each one of them would have to move about a 100. I know that seems like a lot. It actually isn’t in either direction. What was Clayton Kershaw making this past season in Los Angeles? Depending on bonuses and so forth, he was going to get anywhere between seven and 16. He’s not coming back. There are other examples, other contracts that have expired or about to expire. And for the record, according to no less in authority than Spotrak, the Dodgers projected payroll for the 2026 season is 240 at the foundation. It could go as high as 262, presuming no moves. Okay, this is just looking at what’s there right now and what’s still in line to be there next year. Plus, to this latter figure I’m about to mention, arbitration raises and stuff like that, it could be as high as 262. So, all of a sudden, you’re not talking about 300, you’re talking about 262 or 250 or whatever it is, you got to come down 50. Well, one of the things that I’ve acknowledged about the Dodgers for a long time, and I think it’s a fair thing for anyone to do because it’s accurate, is that they’re very, very good at the amateur levels as well at the developmental levels and on up through the system. Yeah, they go and they make their ridiculous splashes, but they also have young players coming up. They benefit from both streams. Right now, according to people who know the game and who know that organization, Dodgers have some young guys they need to start playing. So, they could theoretically cut payroll. This is kind of just happen stance here. It has nothing to do with the salary cap thing, but they could cut their payroll to 200 million and be a better baseball team. Certainly a better one for the longer run. And I I don’t think I’d have to explain to anybody how easy it would be for the Pirates to get from 87 to 180 or for that matter to 200. And for anyone who’d struggle with that, here’s how it goes. Sign yourself a couple of free agents. Sit down with Paul Skins and his agent. Lock the door. Don’t let him out until you give him whatever it is that he wants to stay. And if you want to bring Connor Griffin into that same room and take the same approach, do that. That’s some really well-invested money. It’s not impossible. And more relevant to any of that, Mitch. It all comes with precedent. All of these sports have already been through it. This idea that there’s something, anything that makes baseball special when it comes to avoiding a salary cap system is pure bunk. And I got to be honest with you, I don’t think there are many things that I would enjoy more than if after the fact, after the cap system goes in, after the Dodgers whack their payroll, they go right ahead and win another World Series solely because they’re well-run. Nothing wrong with that. It’s not about parody. It’s about fairness. It’s about a fair beginning, a fair foundation for every franchise in your league. from there. If you suck, if you have no idea what you’re doing, if you waste your money, you deserve to be exactly where you are. And uh I don’t think I need to tell anybody here, that’s exactly where the pirates would end up if they keep this GM. Salary cap system isn’t going to save the Pirates. It’s not even going to help them unless they have somebody in charge who knows what they’re doing. I appreciate the question. I appreciate everybody listening to Daily Shot of Pirates all week long. They’re 4 days a week this time of year. So, we’ll be back with another one of these on Monday. [Music]

Don Kelly vs. the GM’s analytics army.

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