The trade seems to be reasonably fair, but when I say "fair", remember that there are two ways you could take that. Is it fair in the sense that we got fair value for a young controllable pitcher with nasty pure stuff and middle of the rotation upside? Or is it fair in the sense that we got fair value for an older pitching prospect with an injury history and certain poor peripherals that point toward a future in the bullpen? Both takes could be said to be true. So let's set aside the trade and discuss Garcia. I am not a scout and I don't have any personal observations to make. I'm just going to repeat things I've read from scouts.
Garcia's carrying traits appear to be his power and his arm. His arm gets a 60 rating from milb.com and he gets a 55 for power. He is not a particularly fast runner but he gets good marks for his defensive skills and it is thought that he may be able to be an adequate defender at CF early in his career. He is expected to have to shift to a corner eventually but he could be a plus defender on either side. You shouldn't expect a ton of defensive value but it's fair to say that he should be a net positive. That defensive value sets up a bit of a performance floor for him but you could make the same argument about Jack Suwinski. Garcia won't be starter quality unless the bat plays.
The good news is that he has good bat speed and there is a lot of power in his swing. The bad news is that there's also a lot of swing and miss. The advanced stats websites aren't as optimistic as you might have hoped – with projections of an OPS around .680-ish. It might be fair to suggest that their algorithms are giving more weight to his results in the lower minors than they should, and not enough weight to what he did in AAA, but I think there's also a chance that he doesn't make enough contact.
If you look at trade values – he's got about the same projected trade value right now as Nick Yorke and Rafeal Flores. That might make you feel better or it might make you feel worse. In this case I think that's just a suggestion that these are three young players who might turn out to be good at hitting baseballs. Flores gets extra value because there's a C after his name and Yorke gets a bit for the 2B after his, but Garcia is usually listed as just an OF. I do feel that Garcia is the most interesting player of the three, but I don't think he's a sure thing. Red Sox fans often discussed him as if they expected him to be a fourth OF or a platoon option.
I may not sound all that optimistic about him, but I do think that you should be glad to have him. Most prospects aren't sure things and the organizations that seem to have good prospect depth aren't necessarily achieving that depth in the most obvious way. You can never be sure that Jhostynxon Garcia will work out, but if you give enough opportunities to enough players of his caliber then you will increase your odds of finding prospects that stick. You'll be happier in the long run if you put more trust in the averages and less trust in the individuals. Garcia is a candidate in a pool of candidates that got stronger because he's been added to it.
If you want to evaluate the trade through my lens, I think the other prospects are very important. Oviedo is not a prospect, he represents the performance floor that the Red Sox wanted. Well… he and Samaniego I should say. Our side took on significantly more risk I would say, but there is also more potential upside for us. If Garcia becomes a 30+ HR starter then we're good. The pitcher that we acquired is just a lottery ticket, but if you go back to what I was just saying about candidates. If you add enough tall and projectible pitching prospects to your organization then you're increasing your odds of finding the next Oviedo.
4 comments
I have no clue how anyone feels the need to overanalyze this trade. The Pirates are very deep with SPs and are very thin at OF. They traded a spare #4 starter for a MLB ready top-100 OF prospect. It’s a complete no brainer of a move.
Oviedo was made entirely redundant by Burrows. They can run with Skenes, Keller, Jones, Burrows and Chandler and have a terrific rotation. Plus they also have Ashcraft in the bullpen and Barco as basically MLB ready as a lefty starter too. If anything they could likely afford to trade another SP for an outfielder, although the uncertainty around Jones makes me hesitant to do that.
The power intrigues me. When it comes to runs scored as a team, slugging percentage seems to matter more than just about anything else. And we need more. I would be happy if he just turns out to be a role player and not a main centerpiece of the offense which tells me they need to make some more moves. But, in a vacuum, I like this trade. Because we do need guys like that if that’s what he turns out to be and he’s got the potential to be an above average every day player. Oviedo might be the better player and it could still be a good trade because we need hitters and have pitching even without Oviedo. I do believe our pitching is weaker now without him, but possibly more, much more, than adequate. It depends on how some of the young pitchers work out.
Sure it’s a risk to your pitching, but you need to take some risks if you want to get better.
I’m not reading all of this but I think it boils down to the Pirates needing young, controllable talent offensively. Password fits that bill. Oviedo is a nice arm who has struggled to stay healthy.
The reality is there’s probably 2 years left before trading Skenes to maximize return. Setting the organization up to compete with his return when that happens needs to be the ultimate goal. If we can win more than we lose the next 2 seasons that’s a cherry on top.
I like Oviedo but he’s thrown over 70 innings exactly once in the majors and ended up needing TJ after the season ended. I do hope he returns to form because he’s got great stuff but it would have been irresponsible to hold onto to him with a top-100 prospect on the table.