SHOWDOWN: Buffalo Bills vs Bengals – Can James Cook & Josh Allen FEAST on Shaky Cincinnati Defense?

SHOWDOWN: Buffalo Bills vs Bengals – Can James Cook & Josh Allen FEAST on Shaky Cincinnati Defense?

Week 14 presents a high stakes clash between the Bills and Bengals. A game both sides need to win. I’ll tell you how Buffalo can come away with a victory today on Locked on Bills. You are Locked on Bills, your daily Buffalo Bills podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. What’s up, Bills Mafia? It’s Joe Marino, author of the Herd Mentality Substack, co-host of the Locked On NFL Scouting Podcast, co-host of the NFL First Read Podcast, and I’m your host of Locked On Bills. Locked on Bills is a proud part of the Locked On podcast network, now the number one sports podcast network. Want to thank you for making Locked On Bills your first listen every day. And a big welcome and shout out to our everydayers. You know who you are. Those of you who never miss a single episode, I appreciate y’all being here very, very much. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. Well, folks, welcome in. It’s time to get ready for the Bills week 14 matchup, the challenges, and what the Bills need to do to win the game. So, let’s dive into it. The Bills are at home in week 14 to host the Cincinnati Bengals. The game will be played on Sunday, December 7th at 100 p.m. Eastern time at Highark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. You can watch this game on Fox. Joe Davis is on the playbyplay. Greg Olsen is the game analyst. Greg Olsen is the best. He is the best. It’s not close. Love listening to him talk ball. Pam Oliver is your sideline reporter. This will be the 35th all-time meeting between the Bills and the Bengals. And what’s interesting is that the Bills and Bengals have split the 34 previous matchups. The Bills have a 17-7 record against Cincinnati. Now, of late, Cincinnati’s been winning these games. They’ve won six of the last eight, but the Bills from 1989 to 2010 won 10 in a row, but then the first 16 matchups, the Bengals went 11 and five. And so, someone’s going to have the all-time series lead by the end of Sunday. The Bills do enter this game at 8-4. The Bengals are 4-8, but obviously it’s been a journey for Cincinnati this year as they’ve only had Joe Burrow for three games. And they’re three-0 in the three games that they’ve had Joe Burrow. They’ve had Jake Browning, they’ve had Joe Flacco, but Joe Burrow is back. And those three wins came against the Browns, Jaguars, and Ravens. And the Bengals have a real shot at the AFC North. I know they’re four and eight, but the Steelers and Ravens are 1 and2 in the division and they’re both six and six. They play each other this week and they play each other again. The Bengals remaining schedule is at Buffalo this week. Then they play the Ravens. Then they go to Miami and they finish with two at home between the Cardinals and Browns. They got a shot. They got a real shot. And obviously for them, winning in Buffalo on Sunday is going to improve their chances of claiming the AFC North. The head coach of this Bengals football team is Zack Taylor. He’s 42 years old. It’s his eighth season with the Bengals and he has a 5060 and1 record. Made the playoffs twice in his seven seasons that he’s completed in 2021 and 2022. They did not make the playoffs in any other season. Of course, they won the AFC in 2021, but lost the Super Bowl to the Rams. Prior to becoming the head coach for the Bengals, Zack Taylor was an assistant under Shawn McVey with the Rams for two seasons and then he had a run in Miami as their quarterback’s coach under Joe Filin. The quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals is Joe Burrow. 28 years old. He actually turns 29 next week. Was a first round pick number one overall in 2019 by the Cincinnati Bengals. Of course, he played his he played his last couple of seasons at LSU or his last season at LSU or his last two at LSU. And he started his career in college at Ohio State. 6’4, 215 pounds. He started 72 career games, has a record of 41, 30, and one. So far this year, he’s only really played two and a half games. So, he’s 45 of 82. That’s a completion percentage of 55%. And of course, that’s not very good. But keep in mind, Joe Burrow is the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage at 68.2%. He’s thrown for 450 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. Let’s dive into his metrics. And when I do this part of our primer episode, I normally give you these metrics and it’s out of 32 and I pick the 32 quarterbacks with the most drop backs in the NFL. Well, because Joe Burrows only played two and a half games, he only has 91 drop backs. So these metrics when I tell you where they rank, I mean out of the top 43 because we had to go 43 deep to get 91 to get the players that would qualify for the 91 dropbacks that Joe Burrow has. So keep that in mind. His EPA this year not so hot minus.02. Uh that would be 21st in the NFL. He throws deep 13.4% of the time at seventh highest. He’s two of nine for 72 yards and a touchdown on deep throws so far this year. Yards after catch not a big part of the formula here. 37% of the passing yards to date have been after the catch. That’s 42nd out of 43. He throws to his first read 66% of the time. That’s 20th. His average time to throw is 2.62 seconds, which is 22nd. His catchable ball rate is 73% which is actually not very good. That’s 31st. You could tell last week uh in his return against the Ravens that the accuracy piece wasn’t quite back. Um you know, I think he’s still working through the the toe injury obviously and you could tell that there just was some spotty throws last week against Baltimore. His turnover worthy throw percentage is 0%. Has not yet this year thrown a pass that was turnover worthy. And of course that’s the best in the NFL. Drops have been a bit of an issue. 6.1% drop rate. That’s 11th highest. He has a 30% pressure rate. That’s not very much. 40th out of 43 in terms of the qualified quarterbacks here. They don’t run a lot of play action or screens. 19% play action rate. 4.3% screen rate. And that’s kind of been the thing with Joe Burrow under Zack Taylor in Cincinnati is that it’s pretty much pure drop back passing. And they don’t do a ton of screens. They don’t do a ton of play action. In fact, I’ve I’ve heard Zack Taylor talk about how Joe Burrow, they want his eyes on the defense the whole time because of his field vision. You know, how he sees coverage rotations. He’s a very, very good anticipatory thrower. They don’t want his eyes off the defense, so they don’t run a ton of play action. And so, you know, Joe Burrow, I think the world of him. I think he’s an awesome player. I love the way he plays the game. He’s accurate. He plays with great timing, great anticipation. He’s a really, really good quarterback and he just knows where his answers are and he gets there and he throws an accurate football. And so, he’s outstanding. I think he’s the quarterback in the NFL that I think executes a passing offense at the highest level of any any quarterback out there. Now, obviously, these are unique circumstances. He’s only played two and a half games pretty quick in his return uh back from injury and uh we’ll see what type of performance he can deliver on Sunday. All right, we’re going to talk more about this Bengals offense here on the other side of it and of course my keys for the Bills defense to limit this offense. So, we’ll do that all here next, folks. Be sure to stick with me. NFL Sundays move fast. One big play and suddenly everything feels different. That’s what makes live betting with FanDuel so exciting. You’re not just watching the game, you’re reacting to it in real time. With FanDuel, you can place bets as the action unfolds. Every drive, every momentum swing, every highlight moment. Live betting is the best when the game starts to shift. The receiver gets hot, a defense tightens up, or the momentum flips after a turnover and FanDuel lets you jump into that moment. They have live spreads and money lines that adjust instantly. The player props update as guys heat up and you can bet on who the next player to score a touchdown will be, what the next drive result will be, totals, everything. It just keeps you more locked into every snap, every drive, and every possibility. So, if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your live NFL bets all season long. FanDuel, the game moves fast and so can you. Welcome back, folks. Let’s keep talking about this Bengals offense. The coordinator is Dan Pitcher. He’s 38 years old. He’s actually a native of Courtland, New York. Perhaps you’re from that area. Thought I’d share that with you. Uh, Zack Taylor is the play caller for the Cincinnati Bengals. Metrically, look, they’ve only had two and a half games with Burrow. So, these these metrics include the whole season. They are 20 They score 23 points per game on average. That’s 16th in the NFL. They pass the ball at the highest rate in the NFL, 66%. They run the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL, 34%. They’re 26th in EPA per play on offense, 25th in EPA per pass, 11th in EPA per run. They convert 40% of their third downs. That’s 12th. They’re 54% scoring red zone touchdowns. That is 18th. Let’s talk about their personnel. And of course, it’s about their superstar wide receivers, Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. Jamar Chase is really special. He’s unbelievably physical. He has elite play strength, really good hands, really good with the ball in his hands, really good body control and ball skills. You know, I I don’t think he’s like an elite route runner. I think he’s a perfectly fine route runner, but the physicality that he plays with, a lot of corners can’t deal with it. And so, he’s a big big challenge. They throw the ball to him a ton. He’s got 131 targets this year already. That’s a lot. And I think he missed he missed the game. And so, that’s a big assignment for the Bills. Obviously, Christian Benford likely to draw that one and it’ll be a great test. You’re not going to shut Jamar Chase down, but can you limit him? That’ll be a big challenge. His running mate is T. Higgins, who missed the last game with a concussion. Feels like he’s on track to play. And T. Higgins gives them a lot of size, wingspan, above the rim ability. He’s very dynamic in terms of how he can push defenses vertically and make plays. And then uh Andrew Yosvas is their slot player. Sometimes they’ll play Mike Caseeki in the slot a lot too, but Yosi Vas is kind of a heightweight speed guy. That gives them another big play guy. So Jason Higgins are obviously the the dudes here, but Yosi Vas is not a guy that you can sleep on. At tight end, Mike Caseeki is back from injury. He’s only played in eight games this year. You know Mike, you know Mike Gaseki. He’s uh big, tall, wingspan, body control, can go high point the football. You know, he’s not going to do everything as a route runner. He can’t block, but he can be that big power slot type player. Then they also have Noah Fant. Um former first round pick has kind of bounced around lately. Very, very athletic and he gets some run in this offense. So, he’s a guy that you’ll have to be mindful of as a move piece at the tight end position. And then Drew Sample is more their traditional inline player. They drafted him several years ago. Pretty high, I think, a second round pick. He doesn’t get a lot of volume in the passing game, but he’s the the player that handles a lot of the inline work. At running back, they got a good young back in Chase Brown, 510, 210 lbs, runs 443, really dynamic athlete. I thought he was awesome in college at Illinois. And he’s become the feature back for the Bengals. He has six consecutive games with 100 yards from scrimmage. That’s a Bengals record. And he looks like a good young player. He’s very competitive runner. You’ll I mean, if you you like football, I know you don’t want him to do well against the Bills. I certainly don’t either, but stylistically just a really enjoyable football player to watch. His running mate is Sam Perine, veteran in the league, big body, downhill, pass type back. uh that can relieve Chase Brown. When it comes to their target distribution, Jamar Chase, like I said, 131 targets this year. Number two is T. Higgins at 70. Isn’t that crazy? That’s like 61 more targets for Chase than Higgins. And 70 is a healthy amount of targets, too. Then it’s Chase Brown with 64 targets. They will throw the ball to the running backs out of the back field. Number four is Yosi Vas with 44. Then it’s Noah Font with 37. Micah Siki with 26 in eight games. Let’s talk about their offensive line. Their left tackle is Orlando Brown. He’s humongous and he’s got a lot of length. He doesn’t have a lot of foot speed, right? He’s a guy that is going to win with with his length and size and he’s just a lot to get around, but he’s not a guy with a ton of movement skills. but he’s uh been a longtime starter in the league that’ll hold his own there at left tackle. Their left guard is Dylan Fairchild. That’s a player they drafted this year and uh out of Georgia. Looks like a a guy that’s going to be an answer for them at guard and has had a pretty solid rookie season. Their center is Ted Carris, a veteran in the league. You remember him from his time with the Patriots and Dolphins. He’s the the Bengals center. He’s a sufficient level veteran starting center. Their right guard is Dalton Risner, who has at one point was a a good guard in the NFL. He’s kind of fallen off, has had some injuries, has been more of a backup of late. In fact, he’s been a backup for Cincinnati up until the last couple games. They were playing uh Jaylen Rivers in that spot, and now Risner has come in and I think kind of elevated the group. Then their right tackle is Amarius Mims, their first round pick last year out of Georgia. A guy that didn’t have a ton of playing experience at Georgia, but just an unbelievable ceiling in terms of the size and athleticism and what he did display during his time at Georgia. I mean, just one of the most physical blockers I’ve ever seen. And he’s a heck of an athlete as well. And so, he’s still stabilizing. and he doesn’t have a ton of experience, but there is a a raw talent wi within Amarius Mims that has him capable of achieving a lot in the NFL. So, a decent offensive line. I guess you look at the the young player at left guard, a young player at right tackle, a guy that’s probably more of a backup at right guard. So, you have some opportunities, but obviously we’ll see we’ll see what this Bills defensive line has um in terms of their performance on Sunday. So, what are my keys for the Bills on defense against this offense? Uh, number one, I think you I think you got to play a lot of twoman coverage. Uh, so you’ll have two split field safeties that have half the field and you play man coverage underneath it. Um, I think it’s the what you got to do. I don’t think you can play a whole lot of zone against Cincinnati. Joe Burrow is too good too good at anticipation and understanding where space is going to be and making accurate throws. I remember Shawn McDermott after the Kansas City loss in the playoffs two years ago and the Bills went to this very heavy man coverage scheme. Maybe it was actually last year. It was last year’s playoff loss because I remember Demar Hamlin was out there covering Xavier Worthy in the slot and Kyrie Elum was out there playing man coverage and it got goofy but Shawn McDermott said the right thing after the game. He’s like we didn’t want to die a slow death in zone coverage and I think that’s what you’re signing up for. You are signing up for Joe Burrow just finding completion after completion after completion. I think you have to ramp up the man coverage. I think you got to take the air out of it. You can’t just be playing with cushion and think that you’re going to play from depth and top down and trigger and just drive on throws. I think you’re going to get in trouble with that. I think you’re going to have to play a decent amount of man coverage and then leverage two safeties over the top. Number two is you got to find some ways to manufacture pass rush. You’ve heard me talk extensively about the Bills pass rush and how it has disappeared over the last four games. You got to figure something out. And I don’t think the Bills are going to have Joey Bosa for this game. So, how you going to affect Joe Burrow with your pass rush? Well, blitzing is pretty risky. He kills the blitz. So, what can you do? Can you manufacture some pass rush through stunts, uh, through simulated pressures? How do you figure this out? Because if if Joe Burrow is not going to be pressured and he’s just going to sit in the pocket and survey and make throws, it’s going to be a long day. I think you got to figure this out. That’s a big task ahead for Bobby Babage and Shawn McDermott and Ryan Nielsen this week. You know, you’re also keeping in mind that Joe Burrow is is probably not at a point where he should be playing. He’s wearing a specialized shoe. He can’t bend his toe. You know, that the initial timeline was mid December while he played in November. That left foot that left big toe that’s, you know, been surgically repaired. I mean, with all due respect, how do you how do you make that a problem for him? What can you do? How do you attack him in ways that maybe force him off his spot and makes it a requirement for him to move, right? I think you want to try to get him in as many situations like that as you can. And then number three in terms of my keys for the Bills defense against this Bengals offense is the Bills offense. The Bills offense has to show up. They have to score. They have to keep the pressure on. The best way that the Bills can help their defense is to score and and handle their business offensively, sustain drives, finish drives, and keep the pressure on Cincinnati. All right, we’re going to focus in on the Bills offense against this Bengals defense that has struggled a lot this year. We’ll tell you about those struggles and maybe some of the opportunities for Buffalo to exploit on Sunday. So folks, be sure to stick with me. Welcome back. Let’s talk about this Bengals defense that is coordinated by L Golden. 56 years old, he’s in his first season as the Bengals defensive coordinator. They dismissed Luan Rumo and they brought this guy in and uh prior to that, he was the Notre Dame defensive coordinator in 2022 through 2024. Prior to that, he was in Cincinnati with Zack Taylor as the linebacker’s coach uh for two seasons. And then, you know, I think El Golden is probably most known for his time as a college head coach at Temple and Miami. Bengals defense has really struggled this year. They’re uh dead last in scoring defense. They allow 31 points per game. They’re 32nd dead last in EPA per play. They’re 31st in EPA per pass. 31st in EPA per rush, 31st in third down rate at 44%. They’re 28th in red zone defense, 65% conversion. And so this is a defense that has just not played well. Now, they’ve made several lineup changes to be mindful of at corner and in the slot and at linebacker this year to to find some answers. and their results have been a little bit better the last few weeks, but a defense that has not played well. Now, one of the big changes that they’ve made is outside of like personnel changes is they’re playing significantly more man coverage over the last three weeks, which is out of their buy. And when they really kind of made some lineup adjustments, they became one of the most heavy man coverage teams in the league. 42% man coverage. That’s third highest in the league over the last three weeks. And it’s a 20% jump from where they were in the first like whatever 11 weeks of the season. They run a ton of uh one high middle of the field close coverage concept. 61% that’s fifth highest. They run the highest rate of cover zero. They run the third highest rate of cover one. They’re going to play man coverage. And so the Bills have got to be prepared to deal with that. They don’t blitz. They’re 19% blitz rate. That’s the lowest in the NFL. They’re 19th in pressure rate, but 27th in pressure rate over expectation. They have a 4 and a.5% sack rate. That’s 22nd. And they’re 27th in time to pressure. So not a very effective pass rush. Let’s talk about their personnel. At defensive tackle, they got a couple of veterans, big dudes, BJ Hill and TJ Sllayton. BJ Hill has been there for a while. Uh pretty good player. You know, he can rush a little, can defend the run, uh but he can’t do it alone. And they signed TJ Sllayton a few years ago away from the Packers in free agency, I think he’s been pretty disappointing. Just a big dude, 6’5, 330, doesn’t move well, and and for a guy that’s as big as he is, you’d expect him to be a lot better against the run. He just hasn’t really provided that. Then they have a couple of young players uh as their backups. Chris Jenkins, who they drafted in the second round two years ago. He has not really become the player they envisioned. And then McKinley Jackson, third round pick, who is on his rookie contract and requested a trade if I’m not mistaken, hasn’t really proven much. And so I think they’re pretty underman there outside of BJ Hill. Uh at defensive end, they won’t have Trey Hendrickson. I think he’s making a business decision right now and not not wanting to play. And so that leaves Joseph Assai and Miles Murphy as their starting defensive ends. Joseph Assai’s been their best defensive end, young player out of Texas that I think has incrementally improved throughout his career. He had a tough injury a few years ago, but I think he’s a a solid player, at least a good depth player. And Miles Murphy was their first round pick a few years ago out of Clemson. Just has not turned into an impactful player. It’s probably more of a depth player, but of course he has to start for this team. Then they have Cam Sample who I think at one point was a good um you know like rotational inside outside player but he had an Achilles injury a couple years ago that is kind of taken away from him. And then Cedric Johnson who was a day three draft pick in 2024. Um that factors into the rotation as well. At linebacker they’re starting two rookies. Neither one has been very good this year. Barrett Carter uh who is out of Clemson. Demetrius Knight who’s out of South Carolina. That’s their linebacker core. They’ve really struggled. Uh they look like a couple of guys that are rookies playing behind a suspect defensive line. At corner, I think they found a couple of answers here. Uh DJ Turner, who they drafted in the second round, I think two or three years ago out of Michigan. He looks really, really good. I think he’s one of the better young corners in the league. His running mate is Dax Hill, who they drafted in the first round several years ago. and they played him all over the place in the slot at free safety and now they’re playing him at outside corner like over the last three or four weeks and so he’s still settling into that spot in the slot. It’s Jaylen Davis. And Jaylen Davis is a an eighthyear player who’s been on the practice squad that just got signed to the active roster. Has mostly been a special teams player and now he’s the starting slot player for the Bengals. Their safeties, Gino Stone and Jordan Battle. They signed Gino Stone in free agency a few years ago after he had a bunch of interceptions for the Ravens. And Jordan Battle is a good-looking young safety out of Alabama. And so I think they’re uh very much like two sufficient level starting safeties and they’re interchangeable. They play a lot of that one high middle of the field closed and they’re pretty interchangeable about who that middle third player is or their their one high over top and then who they’re kind of ratting the whole player is that the player in lower alignments and even sometimes in the slot. So not I mean just look be honest about it. There’s not a lot here personnel wise. I think their best player on defense is DJ Turner. Couple of good safeties, a couple of new players in the slot at the other corner spot, two struggling rookie linebackers, and respectfully maybe one starting caliber defensive lineman. So, what are my keys for the Bills offense against this defense? Number one is finish drives. You got to finish drives. This is not a game where you settle for three. If you got chances to score six, you got to score six. And finishing drives means not turning the ball over, too. Like, you got to take care of the football and finish drives. Number two is you’re going to have to attack the middle of the field in some ways. I know that they play some safety presentations that are one high, middle of the field closed, uh, but they will play a lot of zero as well. And they have been susceptible to slots in tight ends. And that’s really where the Bills best passing production comes is when they target slots and tight ends. And I think you got to find ways for this to be a Khil Shakir game, a Dawson Knox game, assuming Daltton Concaid doesn’t go. If it Daltton Concade can’t go, you got to get some targets for him. I think you want to take advantage of some matchups and move some receivers and play them inside. whether that’s Keon Coleman, Brandon Cooks, if you get chances to go at Dax Hill or or uh Jaylen Davis in kind of their new spots, I think you have to do it. And so I think there’s going to be some the really the key that I’m looking for there is working the ball to your tight ends in slots in the passing game. And then number three is let James cook. Let him cook. It’s a bad run defense. The Bills are a good run offense. I think the Bill’s best opportunity to stay consistent on offense, to finish drives, is to make sure that James Cook is pretty heavily involved. I I’m hoping for every bit of 25 touches for James Cook in this game. But ultimately, like whatever the Bills want to be offensively, they should be it against Cincinnati. You want to be run heavy, you want to be pass heavy, you want to be two-dimensional play, whatever it is, whatever you want to do, you should be able to do it. Don’t be the team that can’t score against a team that’s given up 31 points per game this year. Don’t be that team at home in Buffalo. Go be whatever offense you want to be. Real quick on special teams or kicker is Evan McFersonson. Fifth season 85% kicker for his career. He’s having a good season. 23 of 26 this year. and is only he’s only missed two field goals inside of 50 over the last two seasons. Their punter is Ryan Reco, secondyear punter. He looks good. He replaced Brad Robbins. They drafted Brad Robbins. Remember him with the Bills and then they cut Brad Robbins. They got this guy. Secondyear player. He looks really good. Then their kick returner was a good one as well. Charlie Jones. He’s in his third season and he already has three return touchdowns. three kick uh two two kick returns, one punts. He has not muffed a punt return yet. He’s a good He’s a good guy in terms of handling the ball and producing as a returner. So, there you have it. Bills, Bengals, my primer, it’s really going to come down to which defense can get it done, right? I think both of these offenses are going to have a lot of opportunities to move the ball and score points. Which defense can get a couple of really big stops in big moments? Which defense can hold him to three instead of giving up six? Which defense can get a a takeaway or two? We’ll find out. Thanks for being here, folks. We have one more conversation for you where I’ll give you my final thoughts. We’ll talk to Dr. Kyle Trimble of Banged Up Bills about the injuries and of course my five predictions for Sunday. So, don’t miss it. Make sure that you’re subscribed. Would love it if you took a second to rate, review, and share the podcast. Have a great rest of your day. Go Bills and I look forward to catching up with you again real soon.

High-scoring offenses collide as the Buffalo Bills face the Cincinnati Bengals in a must-win Week 14 showdown. Can Josh Allen’s Bills outpace Joe Burrow’s Bengals, or will Buffalo’s defense find a way to contain Ja’Marr Chase and a suddenly dangerous Bengals attack? Playoff hopes hang in the balance as both teams fight for division leads and postseason survival.
Joe Marino breaks down the key matchups, spotlighting Joe Burrow’s elite anticipation and field vision, Ja’Marr Chase’s physical dominance, and the Bengals’ evolving receiving corps. The conversation explores Buffalo’s best defensive strategies—ramping up man coverage and manufacturing pressure—as well as how James Cook can exploit Cincinnati’s struggling run defense. Will Buffalo’s offense capitalize on red zone opportunities, or does Cincinnati’s shift to heavy man coverage create new challenges? Don’t miss the comprehensive preview of both squads’ strengths, vulnerabilities, and what it takes to secure a pivotal AFC victory.
Visit https://www.thejoemarino.com/ for details on Substack, Subtext, Merch and more!

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