What Does A SUCCESSFUL Off-Season Look Like For The Chicago Cubs?

What Does A SUCCESSFUL Off-Season Look Like For The Chicago Cubs?

What does a good off season look like for the Chicago Cubs? And I’m not just talking about the players that they get. You are Locked on Cubs. Your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team every day. You are Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. We are your team every day. I’m Sam over. I’m a lifelong fan taking my passion into a discussion with you on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app. Create an account and use code lockdown MLB for $20 off your first purchase. Uh fun show for you today on this Friday. We got best and worst. We’ve got how the Cubs can get to where we want to go. what what players can they get? How can they get to where they want to go? But the first segment is where do the Cubs want to go and and what does a successful off season look like in terms of the the end result, right? So before we talk about players, that’s what we’re going to talk about in the second segment. I want to talk about where the Cubs need to finish this off season in terms of where they stack up against the rest of the league and the rest of the NL Central and then we could talk about how they get there players wise if that makes sense. What I mean by that is I’ll just come out right now and say it. My concern about this off season is that the Cubs go get a good pitcher whether that’s via trade or via free agency. They go get some sort of bench bat and then they fill in their team with the rest of their holes with their relievers. The overunder the day before opening day for the Cubs is at like 84 and a half or 85 and a half, right around where Milwaukee will be, right around s Cincinnati will be. And we’ll all go into the into the 26 season with all the experts saying the NL Central is a three team race or a two team race. That’s a failure if that’s the case. A failure where I believe I’m just going to answer the question right now. What does a good off season look like for the Cubs? Forget players for a second. It it looks like by opening day they are the clearcut NL Central favorites. Okay. And I’ll give them some credit. They did that last season. Um it didn’t work out. The Brewers performed at a level that nobody would expect to. The Cubs won 92 games, but going to get Kyle Tucker, even though you can make the case they should have added more pitching, they could have done a lot more. They didn’t spend the Bellinger money, at least going out and getting Kyle Tucker, in my opinion, made the Cubs the favorites. And and I I don’t want to get too technical with the gambling part of it. Um, but I I I think they should be minus favorites on opening day and I believe they were last year. Like – 115, -120, and whoever’s behind them is, you know, 3:1 or 2 and a half to one, whatever it is. Clear-cut NL Central favorites. That’s what this off season should accomplish. But here’s what we’re what we’re looking at right now. Okay. Um, last year you went out and got a guy like Kyle Tucker. It felt like the missing piece. We’ve sat there, we’ve debated almost, you know, to to to a point, well, what is he worth it or is he not, whatever. But you still got that guy and that gave you credibility. It gave you a a really good chance and he performed the first half of the season and everything was great. You’re now basically guaranteed to lose that guy and there is absolutely no insinuation around the league that you are trying to replace him externally with a player of that caliber. you are pitching the fact that you’re going to replace him internally with Bisteros and Casey, which we’ll talk about in the second segment. But for this part of it, I just want to say this. You could sit here and pitch me and tell me that that’s the right thing for the organization, but in the back of my mind, a and this is me coming to you as a fan as much as a podcaster, I also know it’s the best thing for the organization financially to save money. And that bothers me. And I I think there’s a a a big market path to build this off seasonason and make yourself the clear favorite, which is of course the easiest way. You just go get stars and go get good players. And then there’s the the midmarket way. And the midmarket way is, yeah, we’re going to go get a guy here as a starter. We’re going to get a guy there. And then we’re going to build internally. And if that works, great. If that works, great. I’ll be the first one to say great job. But I still can’t overlook the fact that it’s also best for the baseball budget. And that just bothers me because the the division, it shouldn’t be a a really close race outside of the fact that the Brewers are so great at developing players. You should be able to go spend enough money not just to be in the race, not just to be an 85 86 win team, but a team that that is the clear favorite. Now, if it doesn’t work out that way, that’s fine. But but the purpose of this episode is what looks like a good off season on opening day, the Cubs are clear-cut favorites. And I don’t think that’s going to happen. And it’s not going to happen because of the money situation. And look, I I I’ll just say this. I was listening to Max Kellerman and Bill Simmons on on the Bill Simmons podcast on uh on Wednesday and Max Kellerman’s a a diehard Yankees fan and he was talking about how Hal Stein Brener, you know, came out and said, you know, they’re, you know, trying to break even, whatever, whatever the quote was. I don’t remember what it was. And he he made a really interesting point and he said that in today’s age, Hal Stein Brener, and I’m not quoting, I’m paraphrasing, he’s worth like $2.5 billion. And believe it or not, that’s actually not enough to to run the Yankees the way Max Kellerman wants the Yankees to be run. And you know, Tom Rickettts, I think, is worth about three, whatever it is. And you you you just you feel the same way, like if you can’t go out and get the guys that you need to be clear NL Central favorites, nobody is asking you to be the Dodgers, that’s not realistic. That’s not fair. That’s not possible. I’m not even asking you to be one of the main favorites in the National League. I’m just asking on paper to be the clear favorites in the NL Central verse a small market team like the Brewers and a small market team like the Cincinnati Reds who as of recording time right now have real interest in Kyle Schwarber. If you let that happen, that’s when you have to start, you know, you know, looking at things a little bit deeper and re-evaluating things. But, but I think going into this CBA, there’s so much unknown. Why do we have to treat the unknown as, oh, we got to save money or do this and that? Go take this division and build off your 92 win season. Uh, and and spend some money and act like a big market team and get yourself to the point where it’s like, hey, it’s the Cubs division to lose. I’d be really surprised if they lost it. And if the Brewers have another 97 win year, then there’s nothing you could do. Bravo to them. But there’s a a clear path this off seasonason to make a statement in the division or or or even in the league. And to me, that’s the goal. And and I just don’t think you could sell fans on, hey, you lose a guy like Kyle Tucker who you traded the farm for. You’re not going to resign him. If you want to say, hey, and again, it all goes back to the two things that are true part of this perspective that’s so difficult. I wouldn’t give Kyle Tucker 300 plus million dollars. I don’t think he’s worth that. But it also doesn’t excuse the Cubs for not replacing him or spending money elsewhere. You know, when the Cubs got Matthew Boyd, it’s a great acquisition. I was a huge fan of it at the time, but you also know that they’re going that route because they don’t want to go after the big fish because of finances. You always have to acknowledge both sides. And I just think I’m getting tired of it. And I think this off season, more than any other one, would really emphasize how much the Cubs are trying to save money if they just don’t go out and and and say, “Hey, the NL Central is ours. We’re not going to let Cincinnati go get the guy that we non-tendered that became the best guy out of the core by far that now could go right across the road and c cost us a playoff spot.” There needs to be emphasis. I know we talked about Marquee. I know we talked about the Cubs losing money. They have to put out a product and take some risks and show these fans that the 92 win season was not a an exception of the rule but the expectation because right now they are not close to a 90- win roster and I and I believe going to get get one starting pitcher doesn’t do that either. Now they may overperform to get to be a 90- win roster that’s not enough. This needs to be a 90 win roster on paper opening day over under on FanDuel in the 87 to 89 and a half range because they’re always going to be a little bit conservative with their projections. Um at least two three wins ahead of any team in the Central and a minus favorite. They they need to do that. And if Tom Ricketts and Jed Hoyer can’t do that, then find somebody who will because the fans, especially going into a a weird year in 27, they deserve a team that isn’t middling a and going the mid-market way. So, the big question is is how can the Cubs do that? So, coming up next, we’re going to talk about the the big market path of of, you know, going out and taking this division. It’s easy. We’ll take two minutes. And then we’ll talk about the path the Cubs probably are going to go, which is frustrating, but still what’s the mid-market path to still be the favorites clearly in this division. We talk about all those scenarios coming up next. This episode is brought to you by Game Time. The World Cup is coming back to North America for the first time since 1994. And with 48 teams for the first time ever, it’s going to be massive. But let’s be honest, getting tickets is usually the hardest part. That’s why the Game Time app is clutch. 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Thank you for making Locked On Cubs your first listen of the day and thank you for making Locked On the number one sports podcast network. Okay, so we have the goal now. The goal to me is to be clear favorites in the NL Central over the Milwaukee Brewers. All right, with that being said, how do we get that done? Well, there’s the big market way and there’s the midmarket way. And you know the way I would describe the difference between the two just in terms of of you know how it would look is you know to use one of my boxing analogies if you were a let’s say a a pretty good heavyweight boxer and you were to get in the ring with Floyd Mayweather right a welterweight you know one of the all-time greats but a welterweight right you know would you want to try and outbox him out tactic him out think him and see if you could out counter punch him. Uh um or or would you just use your your weight, your size, and your strength to to overwhelm him? Because that’s why there’s weight classes in boxing. The way I would relate that is is take weight classes to to salary to market. That’s what the Cubs and Brewers are. The Brewers are are like a Mayweather or like a very intelligent, you know, welterweight or whatever weight boxer, right? They’re they’re very shrewd. They’re very smart. They they get every bang for their buck. You don’t want to play that game with them. And that’s not to say it’s not important. You want to be you want to be good on the margins. We’ve talked about that for years on the show. But that’s not what you’re best at. what you’re best at is being the Chicago Cubs and using your market, using your status, using your fans um to be able to to generate more revenue, more interest than a team like the Brewers, which should result in getting higher priced, more talented, better players in free agency than the Brewers. And if it doesn’t, then that’s when ownership has to look in the mirror. And I I I understand that the Cubs have spent $90 million more than the Brewers or $85 million. I get it. It should be more than that. Okay. So, the big market path for me, and I’m going to be realistic. I’m not not sitting here saying go be the Dodgers or, you know, get every single great player out there. To me, the big market plan here would be simple. Go sign either Michael King or Amay. The Cubs have had interest in both of them. Um, you know, and and I I think Michael King’s probably the more likely at this time, but go sign either one one of those one of those, no trade, and then go get another big-time bat. Sahadv Sharma reported, John Haymon reported, um, as of Thursday, the Cubs do have interest in Alex Bregman. They’re on the list. Um, are they the favorites? We don’t know. Uh, but go at another bat. I would prefer Bette or Schwarber. I’ve made that very clear. It doesn’t seem like that’s realistic. So, I’m going to drop it. I’m going to drop it. You guys know how I feel, but I’m going to drop it. So, let’s go the Let’s say they go the Bregman route. That’s good enough. If you sign Bregman, so at least you have another good solid bat coming in as Tucker goes out. And then you sign a guy like Michael King. Let’s just hypothetically say that. It feels like it’s either that or my from the free agency pool. And then you fill out the rest of your team with bullpen signings, maybe a couple other utility utility, you know, guys, whatever. maybe a bigger bullpen signing. You’re sitting there at $245, $250 million on opening day over the CBT. I’m good with that. And you you have that mix with the young guys because in this scenario, you hold on to Bayister. In this scenario, you hold on to uh Owen Casey and then you have the flexibility with those guys to, you know, play them. You don’t have to put as much pressure on them. Same with Matt Shaw. You also have the ability if you’re on a 100 win pace or 95 win pace at the deadline you want to run away with this division and go for a championship run, maybe you move him at the deadline. That’s the big market way of doing it. The mid-market way of doing it would be maybe you sign Michael King, maybe you trade for a pitcher, one of those two things. You don’t do anything significantly offensively and you roll out the red carpet for all the young guys and you hope that they succeed. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Like I’m okay with the two timeline situation, meaning you want to develop young players right now and win right now at the same time. But I think when you’re the Chicago Cubs, you should have the luxury of being able to do both where you can be a 95 plus win team and have Moises Bisteros hit 195, you know, or have Owen Casey be a non-factor or or something like that. And last year’s a great example of it, right? They did it last year. They had Tucker. Now, Pete overperformed. You know, Matt Shaw really struggled for a long time, but it didn’t ruin their season because they were built to be a really good team and they got some overperformance. But I just think the mid-market way of doing this is to just hope that Pete Carl Armstrong can repeat what he did last year. Hope that Michael Bush is legit. Hope that Matt Shaw takes a big step forward. Hope that one of Bisteros or CA or Casey can stick in the lineup every day. And that’s just a lot of hope. That’s just a lot of hope. Whereas, if you add a guy like Bregman to that, I I know it’s like, Sam, come on. Is it really just one move? It just takes the pressure off everybody else a little bit. Now Shaw can become a utility guy or a piece in a trade. Now, Byisterero, sure, maybe he’s the everyday DH. He earns that job, but the lineup’s not really centered around him. He doesn’t have to be great. You know, Casey gets an opportunity. Whatever it is, you know, if you want to load up on pitching, I’ll be honest with you, I still think even if they add Bregman, the offense still just has a lot of holes because I’m a little bit more what’s the word? A little bit more concerned about the the repetition uh uh from to 26 from 25 for some of these guys. Mainly Pete. Uh ma ma honestly mainly Pete. I think Pete’s the big one because as much as we talk about Tucker when he started to struggle, the offense started to struggle. You know, Pete really his offensive numbers fell off a cliff in the second half. And you know, the amount of variance that he gave, if you get first half Pete, this team’s going to be really, really good regardless of what they do in free agency. If you get second half Pete, this team might struggle regardless of what they do in free agency. I mean, that’s how big of a difference it was. It’ll probably be somewhere in the middle. It always is and that’s why adding a guy like Bregman would be great. Um, but the reports are the Cubs do have interest in Bregman. I’m for it because I just want to add another bat to take the pressure off these young guys. Um, sign one of these pitchers. Um, whoever it is, you know, we we’ve talked extensively about King. We’ve talked about Amay. I I got to now that the Cubs seem a little bit more serious about Amay, I got to do like my second or third deep dive and really dig in um to it. it seems like he’s definitely the higher upside um selection there. Although Michael King at his best was was had had a really high ceiling as well. Um but really the difference between going big market and mid-market is how much you are relying on outperforming expectations. You know, how much are you relying on that? Every team relies on it a little bit, but in the mid-market scenario, without adding really a big bat, you’re just putting a lot of pressure on guys who are unproven. Matt Shaw, unproven. Uh, uh, Moises Bisteros, unproven. Owen Casey, unproven. And as amazing as Pete was, I don’t think there’s a bigger fan of Pete on this planet than me. You can’t go into 26 and go, that’s going to be a 3030 guy. You just can’t do that. Um, you know, I think Michael Bush’s numbers are the most interesting because he had such a big year and Wrigley was so unfriendly that I’m not even going to out of respect to him because I think I haven’t shown him the respect that he’s deserved on this show. I I haven’t done a good enough job of that. Out of respect to him, I’m not even going to put him in the can he repeat or not. I think when you look at the underlying stats, he’s earned earned that respect that I I expect him to be an 800 plus OPS guy. I expect him to be a 30 plus home run guy next year. he’s earned that. Um, but the other young guys, it’s it’s it’s just there’s just a lot of questions and I think if you go the big market route, you can really um make things easier on yourself. A and it it goes back to the first segment. Bregman at third, Dansby at short, Nico at second, Bush at first, Kelly Amaya catching, Bisteros DH, Seiya and right, Pete in center, Ian in left. uh uh pictures of just the hypothetically, let’s go the King route. King, Horton, Boyd, Steel, Shota, Tyone, rebuilding the bullpen. I think on paper that’s the favorite in the NL Central and I’d be good running out there with those guys. I’d be good going to battle with those guys. Um it it really comes down to just that that offensive ad um that I think that could put them over the top. And listen, Milwaukee is a great organization. If you go out next year and you win 92 again and they win 97 again, is there something that you need to look inwards with Jed and and the developmental stuff on why you can’t catch them? Yes. But is it also kind of like, hey, back-to-back 90 plus win seasons. I’m not asking you to win a 100. I’m not asking you to repeat as champs as the Dodgers. I’m just asking you to be a 90 plus win team uh um in that realm each year, which I think especially going into this year with the Peralta situation should be good enough to at least be favorites on paper in the division. And then we let the season play out uh uh as it will. Um coming up next, we’re going to talk about uh some really fun stories, some really not fun stories, best and worst of the week. Uh, we do that next. This episode is brought to you by a FanDuel. NFL Sundays move fast. One big play and suddenly everything feels different. That’s what makes live betting with FanDuel so exciting. You’re not just watching the game, you’re reacting to it in real time. With FanDuel, you can place bets as the action unfolds. Every drive, every momentum swing, every highlight moment. Folks, the Chicago Bears go to Lambo Field on Sunday afternoon and probably the biggest game that they’ve played in uh since the double doink uh uh parky game against the Eagles in the playoffs. Uh it doesn’t get any more exciting than this. Um I’m not a huge fan that the line is at 6 and a half. Uh I think it opened at six, it went down to five and a half, now up to six and a half. Maybe some sharp action on Green Bay. Um this team deserves respect. Uh we we’ll see what happens. It’s not the end of the world if they don’t win the game, but u everybody’s going to be watching and uh I I can’t wait. So if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanduel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. FanDuel, the game moves fast and so can you. All right, shout out to the everydayers. And you can become a locked on cubs everydayer by joining us for every episode throughout the week. And if you are an everydayer and you have been for a while, you know that on solo shows on a Friday, I like to do my best and my worst of the week. I’ll go two bests and one worst. Um, one of them is is what I just read for the FanDuel ad. just the best of the week just the the Bears. Uh the Bears actually being in first place in the NFC uh in December. I know this isn’t a Bears show, so I won’t go too long on it. Um I’ve doubted this team. I’ll hand up. I I I really doubted them. Um and I still am not sure Super Bowl wise or whatever, but you got to live in the present moment. And what they’ve done has just been um extraordinary. and and they’ve earned the right, as I always talk about with the Cubs, they’ve earned the right to have a special moment against their rivals up north uh on Sunday. Hopefully, they have better luck than our Cubbies did uh uh when they face the Brewers there in the postseason. Uh my other best of the week, this one’s probably going to be an eye roller, but especially after I just did this whole episode on ownership and stuff, but I am encouraged uh uh Sahadav Sharma, Patrick Mooney, North Side Territory, really good podcast, really informative. Um, you know, they were talking about the Cubs being in on C’s and and I know everyone’s like, well, we’re really tired of everybody of of the Cubs being in on guys and not getting them, but like if they are willing to spend three digits, if they are spending nine figures on a pitcher, like they’re going to get one of the good ones and they haven’t spent that type of money on a pitcher since you Darvish, right? And so that that should be good enough to land somebody that they want, whether it’s King, whether it’s a my I I’ll be honest. I mean, I’ve said it on the show, I really thought that they were going to get priced out of the starting pitcher market, end up probably trading for a big arm. And it sounds like they’re really in that race. Um and and that that is exciting to me. And as I just said the last segment, if they could pair that with a guy like Bregman or one of the other bigger free agent bats to round up this team, you know, with their bullpen, I would feel pretty good going into the year. I’m not asking the Cubs to spend 290 300 plus million dollars. I’m just asking them to go over the CBT at 245 250. I don’t think that’s crazy. and and and the fact that the Cubs at least are in on those guys, it’s at least an encouraging sign that the budget’s a little bigger. It it’s an encouraging sign that the Bregman story came out. I didn’t do a direct story covering that yet. Maybe Matt and I will do that for Monday if there’s no action because, you know, the Cubs are in on Bregman. Okay, let’s see what happens. You know, that that’s that’s really the story. uh they were in on him last year as well. But um you know, it’s it’s it’s exciting to me that they’re at least entertaining that because I I really did have some concerns that they wouldn’t be entertaining anything but, you know, one pitcher at an exact price that they like and then rounding out on the margins. So, good sign that the Cubs are interested in Bregman. Good sign that they would spend three uh uh nine figures. I keep saying three digits, it’s ridiculous. Nine figures on a uh on a starting pitcher. Now, let’s see it in action. Okay, now let’s see it in action on paper. Uh, my worst of the week has been discussed already on this program and Matt and Joe uh discussed it yesterday, but um the Kyle Schwarber of the Red Stuff, I just want to give my full take on that. It was my worst of the week. Uh when Matt sent it to me and then I heard about it, you non-tendered Kyle Schwarber for financial reasons. It turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. If I remember correctly, on Cap’s podcast, Jed Hoyer giant uh joined Cap and said that that was one of his bigger regrets. If I remember correctly, I might be wrong on that. If I am, I apologize, but I’m pretty sure he did that. And then I think there was like some Verlander old stuff he talked about, but the but the Schwarber thing was definitely on there. Um, and if that was the case and you regret that, that’s why I’ve pounded the table. I I know it might not make the most perfect baseball sense, but who cares? Sometimes, like, I get it. The goal is to win, but it’s not like this team h has this unbelievable track record of winning all the time. The second goal after winning is to please fans and to keep fans happy and to put out a product that your fans are proud of and want to pay for. And so, like, I just I just think bringing Schwarber back is such the perfect ending and the perfect fix it for this. Even though it might not make baseball sense, that’s not going to happen. So, like I said, I’ll move on from that, but to have him potentially go to the Reds, which in my opinion would make the Reds serious NL Central contenders last year, I never viewed them as that. Matt can Matt can attest to that because we talked about it off the air. Um, I was solely concerned about the Brewers. I really wasn’t worried about the Cardinals a lot for a while either until they rattled off a bunch of wins and then they faded. But the Reds just never had my attention because their offense was so mediocre at best. If you have Gavin Lux hitting cleanup, you are not a division contender. You put Kyle Schwarber in Cincinnati for a reunion and going up against the Cubs 13 times a year with his pedigree. I mean, when’s the last time Kyle Schwarber’s been on a really bad team, you know, the Nationals? I mean, th this guy’s a winner. I mean, Tim talked about that on our show. He goes to Cincinnati. It would be really It would ruin my off seasonason. Even if the Cubs got Bregman and got King and added a really good another eighth, ninth inning guy, it would still ruin my off season if Kyle Schwarber put on a Cincinnati Red uniform. That’s how serious I feel about that. I just It would be It’s like, “Okay, Jet, I get it. You made a mistake. Mistake happens. Mistakes happen. Now the mistake just keeps revealing and getting worse and unraveling and unraveling. I want to be done with that already. Uh you know you non-intendender the best guy of the core Rizzo in terms of the future. Bryant Rizzo Bayzer Schwarber you know who’s who’s had the best career and now he’s going to go to Cincinnati. Contras going to the Cardinals. That was a different that was a different thing. I I with all due respect I don’t fear Wilson Contrarus at all. I fear Kyle Schwarber. Absolutely fear Kyle Schwarber. So hopefully that doesn’t happen. Hopefully you guys enjoyed the pod. Just wanted to basically emphasize how important it is this off seasonason because you know we sit here we talk about all these names names names names names names. But sometimes I think it’s good to to to step back a second and go okay with all these names what are we trying to accomplish going into opening day? And I I firmly believe forget winning a World Series right now. Obviously that’s the big goal. You got to get there first in baseball. I want to win the National League Central. I am tired. It’s been since 2017, not counting the COVID year. I’m tired of losing to the Milwaukee Brewers. It’s time to win that Central. Be the clear favorites a and and dominate that division wire towire. I’m Sam Ober. This is Lockdown Cubs, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day. Have a great weekend everybody.

Sam discusses at length his goals for this off-season for the Cubs. He talks about where they need to be expectations wise when opening day comes along and the different paths they can take to get there. He then wraps up with Best and Worst of the week.

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