An exchange on X/Twitter got me thinking about when have the Cardinals ever made that free-agent splash. So I looked through their free agent history (Darrell Porter to Sonny Gray), and it illustrates so much of what’s been discussed. The above scribbles show how each free agent did (by bWAR) but also how it ended — and much it cost the Cardinals in trade.

What do you make of the Cardinals and free agency? Can they compete if they avoid the big spending on free agents?

9 comments

  1. Because they don’t want to spend high end money on stat free agents.   That leads them to trading assets, which can blow up in your face just as terribly as a bad contract.

  2. I think they have proved, over the years, that they are more than capable of competing without spending on big free agents. In reality, the biggest name on that list is Holliday and even he was initially traded for (giving him a taste for the organization prior to signing with them long term during free agency).

    With that being said, they can’t have their cake and eat it too. If they aren’t going to spend in free agency, then they HAVE to have success in development. It’s not like the organization hasn’t had good talent in the pipeline. They just haven’t been able to develop it at all. Walker has floundered, O’Neil never met expectations outside of one season, Carlson floundered. Knizner was supposed to be a bat first catcher and never developed any skill well. Gorman has flopped after showing promise, Baker was a second round pick and couldn’t consistently hit at AAA (which is a whole different topic to talk about as there seems to be a trend of hitters that fall flat on their face once they hit AAA in this organization). This isn’t even all of the batters but if even a third turned out, the organization would be in a significantly different place.

    With pitching, they stuck to their weak contact approach which worked GREAT when they had a high end defense and were allowed to utilize the shift. When that went away, we immediately started seeing the soft contact guys, such as Mikolas and Hudson, fall apart. I legitimately can’t think of the last starting pitcher outside of Adam Wainwright or Jaime Garcia that has consistently pitched well for this team (that was developed by the team).

    Not going after big contracts is a fine approach. Teams like the Rays have been doing it for decades now with continued success. You CANNOT avoid those contracts and not develop your own players though. That is what gets an organization to where the Cardinals are now.

  4. Ugly list. Holliday was worth it but the actual underrated signing on here was Beltran, dude was awesome

  5. Interesting. Thanks for posting.

    List seems incomplete. I believe Ryan Ludwick was signed as a Free Agent.

  6. I think some of their bigger moves were made through trades. Like with Goldschmidt and Arenado. We traded for Holliday and then resigned him as a FA.

  7. They *can* compete without big free agents if they really get the farm system rolling and enough prospects pan out at once/there are enough to trade for what they don’t have. Truth is, they have to do that part regardless of their approach in free agency. Ideal would be a complete end to spending on mid-tier free agents while building a core with the farm and breaking the bank on one or two top tier free agents when that core is ready to compete.

  9. It’s helpful seeing it laid out this way because we’re probably more inclined to think of the misses than we are the hits when it comes to free agent signings in STL. A wrinkle worth exploring beyond WAR is how impactful was that player on overall team success? Think Eckstein on the ’06 team, Beltran & Berkman on the ’11 team, etc.

    Also, how “good” are other teams at getting value out of FA signings? The Yankees and Dodgers spend tons of money, but does it translate to wins and championships? Recent history for LA says yes.

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