Can The Houston Texans SHATTER The Chiefs Playoffs Hopes? Preview Of Texans vs. Chiefs

Can The Houston Texans SHATTER The Chiefs Playoffs Hopes? Preview Of Texans vs. Chiefs

All right, we get to this time of the week and there’s a lot of things during the week that I realize I probably neglected a little bit. You get hyperfocused on a few specific parts of a matchup. This is a big deal for the the Chiefs and the Texans this week. Obviously, every week the Texans feel like they’re in a must-win situation because they’ve been hovering right around the eighth or ninth seed in the wildard round for weeks now as they continue to win games. They’re seven and two in their last nine games and yet they just they can’t punch through. This is the week where they can a punch through for themselves, but also the Chiefs are in a position where they might have to win out to make the playoffs. And uh we know that we know that Andy Reid is not going to stop fighting as he said earlier this week. Well, we’re going to try to tickle your tonsils on every every play, every game. And uh um but that’s that’s the attitude. I that that’s a ringtone on my phone. If you guys think I’m ever going to stop playing that, uh I will never stop playing that for the rest of my life. There’s a few clips in here that I’m going to play again tonight just because uh I enjoyed them so much. But the the one thing that I probably neglected during the week was to talk about Travis Kelce. I think because the because the Chiefs are struggling by going 500 compared to what they’ve been in the past. I think people have almost overlooked the fact that the Chiefs offense really isn’t all that much different than they’ve been, especially since Rasheed Rice came back. So, we’ll hear a lot about Rasheed Rice and he is a very potent threat. Travis Kelce is averaging 12.2 yards per carry. That’s back up to where he was a few years ago. He’s on pace for 1,000 yards. Um, he’s he’s played by and large a lot the same way he was before last season. We know the Texans had some trouble with him last year. Here is Matt Burke on Travis Kelce this season with some Travis Kelsey highlights. That’s a very unique uh relationship and I think you talk when you talk about the offset plays and the and the scramble drill and those sort of things like I don’t know how to like sort of classify it. It’s just different and it’s unique because like like sometimes you can’t even tell what routes that are being run. You know what I mean? And so like when you’re breaking games down, you’re saying, “Oh, they run these routes and these concepts like and and uh Kelsey’s got such an innate ability to uncover and get open and to have that paired up with a quarterback that can find them and understand where those pockets are going to be is is is like very very unique. there’s I don’t think there’s anyone else in the league that operates the way they do when that when that happens when the when the play gets going and play breaks down like the receivers’s ability particularly Kelsey to find the spots and then the fact that Mahomes can can find those throws and know where they’re going to be like it’s just it’s it’s hard in terms of how you’re trying to like get attached and get on guys because they’re just not like in the common spots and and how they have that connection to say like I know he’s going to be there and I can make that throw or I know this is where it’s going to show up or where this receiver is going to be like uh We got to really work to to get attached when we’re in those situations. Yeah. And look, everything that he said there, obviously we know, but it is it’s hard to game plan for. He’s a wild card. And we’ve seen this last year in the playoffs as Elshshire was playing but injured. And over the middle of the field, Travis Kelce really did some damage when Justin Reed was talking earlier this week. I think he was on NFL Network. And look, Justin’s got experience with both of these teams. has a lot of respect for Demo Ryan. Um, and not that he played for Demo Ryan, but the uh the the one thing he said was, “Hey, with their backs against the wall, wounded animal, expect Andy Reid to pull out all the shots.” One thing that I know people have said that this is what shows up in the playoffs is when they start doing things like sprint outs and backfield action. You look at the backfield there and it looks like something out of the old uh like the old Wishbone era. I know that’s not wishbone the wing tea and whatnot. Um backfield action do something to take some juice out of the pass rushers. Get guys ball eyes in the back field and then there you there you go to Travis Kelce. The other big thing is always just when Travis Kelce is the third option on a play. Mahomes starts off to the right, works to the left, works up in the pocket. Boom, there he is. Like you just have to stay attached the entire time. When it comes to the dynamic between Rashid Rice, obviously the biggest threat, he’s their leading receiver despite played in playing in his half as many games as everybody else. He’s played in six games so far. Um, yes, 100%. People have asked, is Derek Stingley going to travel with Rasheed Rice? And is Kamari Lasser going to play? I I’m I I shouldn’t say I expect Kamari Lasser to play. If I had to gamble on it, I think there’s a greater than 50% chance unless I miss something in the last 12 hours or so. So, he’s got this foot injury. We know that Kamari Lacier has to be dragged off the field if uh you know, whether it’s whether it’s staying in to play his final bowl game in college or whatever. Kamari Lasser is going to try to be out there. Stingley has stayed pretty much planted on the left side of the field for the better part of the season. There’s three games where he’s moved from left to right, but he’s down been down in the slot very rarely. So, I don’t expect them to move Derk Stingley around unless Kamari Lasser is really banged up. Um, and they feel like it’s affecting his play or something. Kamari’s played well enough that I think they trust those guys to stay planted on either side. Kamari’s obviously a huge X-factor in this game. By and large, a lot of people still don’t realize how good Kamari Lacer is outside the city of Houston. Certainly Andy Reid not knows it and they’re going to be eyeballing that really soon. I, you know, they’ll probably test Kamari Lacader very early in the game. The um the one big matchup that I know John Harris said was, “Hey, Ed Ingram and Titus Howard and uh the the interior offensive line versus Chris Jones.” Chris Jones hasn’t been himself, but Chris Jones is also under fire and making comments about how, you know, like they’re they’ll be back to themselves, all of that. Chris Jones is another wounded beast category type of guy. I I would never count him out because I’ve done that too many times in games where Chris Jones will be silent for three quarters and then all of a sudden goes off in the fourth quarter. by way of just showing and I think I showed this graphic earlier in the week, but the the Texans offensive line has improved partly because a the fundamentals are better, b the um the ball’s coming out a lot faster, way faster than it did in the last couple years, but they also just have better players in there. When Ed Ingram and Titus Howard are there at the guards and Jake Andrews is steadily just playing more solid football, I feel better about their ability to handle Chris Jones than I have in the past. The interior offensive line as uh as Daniel Orlovski gives his Daniel Orlovski look pointed out that plays pressure this year drastically down at this point in the season compared to this point in the season last year. Sacks allowed 14 compared to 25. I I’ve seen people online get into arguments about I guess some people saying, “Look, the Texans offensive line is awesome.” And other people say, “Well, no, they’re not actually good at all because they’re just getting the ball out quickly.” It’s it doesn’t have to be binary. It’s somewhere in between. The Texans offensive line has improved. I would point to just the success rate in the run game. They’re not running the ball particularly well, but they’re having successful runs where they get four yards on first down or they’ll get four yards on a second and six. Like th those the success rate is better than it was last year. That allows you to stay on schedule. That allows you to get the ball out quicker on third down because you don’t have to be throwing past the sticks on third and 15. That has gotten better by and large and it’s complimentary. And a big part of it has just been that the receivers have also gotten better. The the young receivers like Jaden Higgins have gotten better. So, as they go against this Chiefs defense, one thing that’s different this year compared to last year, remember last year in the playoffs, it was Nico Collins and a bunch of guys this year. It’s Nico Collins, it’s Dalton Schultz playing more like 2023 Daltton Schultz, but it’s also Jaden Higgins. It’s also Christian Kirk. And I think Steve Spagnolo, the defensive coordinator for the Chiefs, said something very accurate. I don’t think he was just trying to butter up the Texans or something. This is just what we’ve seen from the the Texans offense right this moment. Listen, they all of a sudden it’s all clicking in my opinion. Getting the quarterback back. This may be one of the best overall receiver groups that we’re going to see. Uh they can run the football and they got a quarterback that’s, you know, dynamic with his feet and getting out of trouble. So, it doesn’t get any easier. There’s no, you know, soft pitches in this league. Uh, we need to play better defense. Hopefully, being at home, you know, we can kick it up a little bit. Last three, Sam. Listen. Yeah. And, um, so like things clicking right now. A lot of it has to do with a young wide receivers playing more like veteran wide receivers, but also b I think just all of the players being more comfortable in the system, including CJ Stout himself. They’ve got to do it really. The the big test will come in the playoffs versus better defensive lines. So far this year, the te the the Chiefs defensive line is not what they were last year. Uh Caroftus isn’t winning his one-on- ones the same way he did last year. He’s not going to be facing Blake Fischer one-on-one nearly as many times as he did last year. If he did, it’s going to be when if he does, it’s going to be when Blake Fischer is the sixth offensive lineman instead of the right starting right tackle. I mean, just having Arante Ursery at left and being where he is now compared to where he was in weeks one and two and having Trent Brown at right tackle just makes it that much solid, more solid and stable. And the Chiefs defense just isn’t what they were last year. The Chiefs defense is still a top scoring defense, but they’re just abysmal at taking the ball away. They haven’t been sacking the quarterback, and it’s really when they blitz has been one of the most shocking things. I can’t remember if I played this the other day or not, but here’s Mina Mina Kims on the uh CH Chiefs blitz success rate this year. When they blitz, they are 28th in pressure rate, 31st in yards per play, 25th in success rate. 2022 through 2024, so the previous three years, they were first in yards per play, second in pressure rate, third in success rate. So, they’ve gone from being one of the best and most effective blitzing defenses to one of the worst by a pretty significant margin. Yeah. And I know uh I I know a lot of you got you’ve seen various stats when it’s EPA, when they blitz, all of those things. They’re just they’re they’ve gone from being one of the scariest blitzing teams in the league to one of the easiest to defeat versus the Blitz. Now, the Cowboys really gashed them versus the Blitz a couple times. Some of that was with Dak Prescott buying time and scrambling. We saw CJ get more comfortable with that as the game went along and we’ve seen that he’s been very effective at times with that this year. Um but the like if we watch Straoud versus the Blitz and this is another one the Colts I don’t think do as much of a a sim blitz. Nico Collins coming into his own. We talk about things clicking. If you look at Nico Collins and his targets in the last five games, he’s had five or more targets. Uh I think in in four of those five games or five or more targets and yeah, he had four targets in one of them. Um but in all the previous games before that he was it’s in the last six games I think he’s had five targets or more five times. The previous games there was like one instance of having him having more than five targets. So that includes games with both CJ Stout and Davis Mills. It’s just been he’s been much more consistently targeted. Jaden Higgins, likewise, you look at his targets early in the season compared to now, it’s gone up. Dalton Schulz’s receptions, they’ve gone up. I think they’re just much better equipped right now than if they had faced the Chiefs early in the season. I wouldn’t have felt nearly nearly as good about it. Texans defense uh versus the Chiefs offense. Obviously, it’s Will Anderson into Neil Hunter versus their backup offensive tackles most likely. For those of you who don’t know, likely to be three offensive linemen injured for the Chiefs and uh like it’s in the Texans defense is playing as well as they have. I’m going to play this again because I watch it in my spare time. So, I think that maybe some of you guys haven’t gotten sick of it. Uh this is JJ Watt on the Texans defense and what makes them good. I mean, the number one thing you see about this defense is just pure intensity and violence. the way that they attack people. They have such strong bull rushes, speed to power, which then opens up all their speed rushes, their spins, everything else that comes along with it. And they do it together as a group. They never really let the quarterback slip out or they never both get behind him or both get in front of him. They don’t give escape lanes. They keep them bottled up. And it’s very difficult for quarterbacks to play against that. Yeah. Uh simple as that. It’s it’s really really difficult. Um the the one thing man Oh, I don’t think I have it here. It was a It was a graph that showed the pre-nap operation of the pre-nap operation of um various defenses in the league. I might have to show this just to uh I might have to bring this up. It’s the pre-nap operation of defenses in the league and how much they blitz and how much they disguise their blitzes. And if you look at what the Texans do, it’s it’s a lot of fun because it’s Let’s see if I have it. Yeah, here we go. Um, how often defenses blitz and how often they disguise coverage pre- snap to to post snap. So, the vertical axis is disguised coverage rate. The Texans are down there near the bottom. They just they say, “Ah, we’re lining up in cover two or cover three or cover four and good luck.” Um, their blitz rate, it’s interesting because I I think I’ve seen the Texans at more of like the median for blitz rate. This graph has them pretty low. And some of that might come into how they define a blitz. Like I personally I back in the day and I still think a lot of defensive coordinators would call a blitz is if you bring six guys. If you bring five guys, it’s a dog. The Texans will bring five guys um with somewhat regularity. six guys. They they do it very selectively and there’s kind of an ambush factor to it when they do it. But I do love that by and large the Texans defense just lines up and say, “Look, it is what it is. You know, good luck.” And then they bludgeoning you over the head. Okay, they not the the Chiefs right now are a fish you just pulled and you’re going to keep it because it’s a big fish. I’m not throwing the Chiefs back. I don’t care that they’re a 500 team. You see that logo? I want that up on my wall. Bam. Little miniature baseball bam. Bam. We club in an extra time just to be sure. Okay. The league will thank us for it.

Former Houston Texans player Seth Payne takes a final look at the Texans vs. Chiefs game, as Houston Travels to K.C. to play the Chiefs in Week 14 of the NFL season.