Seattle Mariners acquire Jose Ferrer from Nationals for Harry Ford: Analysis

Seattle Mariners acquire Jose Ferrer from Nationals for Harry Ford: Analysis

So, the Mariners have made a trade. Sorry, I’m recording this a little later. I was really hoping to with all transactions to get it up just right then and there, but you know, I have real life responsibilities every once in a while. Had to wait till those were finished. And I’m kind of glad I did just because it gave me some time to process, some time to think about it. It also gave me time to kind of look at what the reaction to the trade has been. And I’m burying the lead a little bit here. The Seattle Mariners have traded Harry Ford and Isaac Lion to the Washington Nationals and acquired Jose Ferrer. I think I’m pronouncing that right. If I’m not, I apologize. It’s It’s one of those names there’s actually a lot of different pronunciations for. Some people pronounce it Ferrer, some people do FR, some people do it farer. Jose Ferrer is my understanding. And if I’m wrong, I apologize, but Jose Ferrer has joined the Seattle Mariners bullpen. And in return, they give up one of their most famous and one of their best prospects. Let’s start with Isaac Lion. He was their 10th round pick, I believe, out of Grand Canyon. Should have this up, but I don’t. an organizational depth guy who might develop into a back-end starter or a useful bullpen piece. Hard to imagine he’s anything more than that. Um the type of guy you move and it’s just like okay, you don’t give them away. There’s a reason why the Seattle Mariners wanted him. They wouldn’t have drafted him if they completely just didn’t think he was any good. His numbers with Modesto stunk, but it’s a four start sample, so it’s hard to be too harsh. But because someone will ask, hey, is Lion a great prospect? The answer is no. Does Isaac Lion have a chance to be an MLB pitcher? Maybe someday, but it’s going to be a few years, and I doubt it’s going to be anything of real significance. Go ahead and clip this and play it if I’m wrong. The big give here is Harry Ford. And there’s a lot of angles that we can go here. First of all, if you’re a Nationals fan, you’re getting a good prospect. You are getting a guy who made his MLB debut in 2025, who put up solid numbers in Tacoma, an on base percentage of over 400, a slugging percentage of 460. a athletic catcher who has an excellent approach at the plate, who is a flawed but solid enough defender behind the plate that he should be able to stay there. You’re not looking at a future um elite defensive back stop. What this really comes down to is the upside of Harry Ford verse the floor. Because I think we know what the floor with Harry Ford is. He’s a catcher who should get on at a decent clip. Sometimes on base percentages don’t translate. We’ll see what happens when Harry Ford goes through real struggles in the majors. Whether or not he keeps that approach, whether or not there’s a reason for pitchers to not throw him a ton of strikes. We’ll see. We’ll see. There is raw power there. I have my doubts that he’s ever going to reach it enough to be anything more than an average catcher. And what this also comes down to is uh ceiling versus floor, which we just talked about. Reality verse perception. So, I have a lot of respect for all prospect writers, all of them. Anyone who does minor league writing, it’s a chore. And the really good ones do a ton of research. I don’t get to do it as often as I like. I start It’s how I started. Started. I’m not going to do a Drake song. I don’t like him. Um, but it’s how I became known. By the way, Molly is snoring right now. Nothing I can do about it. She says hello and happy holidays. Um, I have a ton of respect for all prospect writers and putting yourself out there and making lists. the perception from prospect writers and therefore fans who follow prospect writing. And again, I’m not poo pooing it. Major League Baseball teams had a different vision of Harry Ford and I think today was proof. I don’t think most major league teams viewed him as an actual top 50 prospect because I don’t think you see the trade that happened today if he was respectfully. He’s not one of the 10 best catching prospects in baseball right now. He is a good catching prospect, a legitimate top 100 prospect, but closer to the back end than the front. Does that mean that he can’t have an excellent career? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. He has a chance to be a very solid player. And if that power does come and if that approach translates, if he is that type of guy who can draw 80 to 90 walks, then you’re talking about a lot more than that. I have my re I have real doubts about whether or not he can draw that kind of walk total at the highest level. in part because in order to do that you have to have some sort of fear and I don’t think Harry Ford is going to strike fear in pitchers. Does not mean I think he can’t be a starting catcher and it doesn’t mean that I don’t think the Nationals did well in this trade because Jose Ferrer just isn’t part of their long-term plan even as a guy who is costc controlled. Okay. So Harry Ford is a nice prospect. Harry Ford is someone that you’re not just giving up, but Harry Ford was I don’t want to say never, but Harry Ford is not an elite prospect. Harry Ford is the type of guy that the Seattle Mariners should have been exploring trades with and they did and they end up getting someone really interesting in Jose Ferrer. and I’ll talk about him more in a second. But first, I do want to give a shout out to Simply Seattle. Guys, this shirt is so good. And I don’t think they have it for sale right now, but this is an example of what you can get from Simply Seattle. The very best in Seattle sports gear. Great stuff for the Mariners, but any Seattle sports team you’re looking for. And guys, it’s holiday season, guys and girls. You’ve got to go get your shopping done at Simply Seattle and use code Molly Watt 15 to show that you support the show and to save 15% off your order. So, already great prices, take 15% off them. Bada boom, bada bam, bada bam. To quote my good friend Peter Pablo. A lot of hip-hop references in this video so far. Um, please check out Simply Seattle. There’s a link in the description. We’d really appreciate, and by we, I mean me, Simply Seattle, and whatever person you’re getting the presents for, or heck, shop for yourself. I’m certainly not going to tell you not to get stuff for yourself. It’s important to uh treat yourself. It’s kind of a hip-hop reference. Okay. Jose Ferrer, a left-handed pitcher. He is 25. He will turn 26 on March 3rd. Very happy early birthday to him. in 142 career games, all with the Nationals. He has a 4.36 ERA. He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 121 to 35. That is a strikeout to walk uh rate of 3.46. 3.46 strikeouts for every walk. Um he has saved 12 games, 11 of those last year, 72 appearances in 2025, 11 saves like I just mentioned. Uh 4.48 erra, we’ll talk about it. 71 strikeouts, 16 walks, his RA plus of 92. It’s worth pointing out in a smaller sample in 2024 he had a 3.38 erra, a 25-6 strikeout to walk ratio in 32 innings. The year before that, 39 appearances, a 5.03 erra, 25 strikeouts in 34 innings. Those numbers aren’t awe inspiring, right? You hear those numbers and you think you’re giving up a top 80 prospect and to some people not as many as you might think but some people a top 50 prospect that’s what you’re giving up him for guys I I know I have talked to you guys a lot about that as you see me typing up to pull up his savant page we’ve got to just ignore really Molly just told you what she thinks of reliever RA. It’s not a good stat. Now, the great ones are awesome because it’s like, holy crap, this guy appeared how many games and he gave up that few runs. Sure, but reliever is so flawed that I almost struggle to bring it up. The indicators of what type of pitcher Jose Ferrer is aren’t based on erra. Okay, here’s what Jose Ferrerero does. Joseé Ferrerero Ferrerero Rocher Chocolate, by the way, has been stuck in my head for at least four hours now. I want one so bad. Okay, here’s what he does really well. He throws a gosh dang bowling ball. And for those unfamiliar, a bowling ball is a pitch that is very difficult to square up and basically impossible to lift in the air. Impossible is wrong, but 64.3% ground ball rate. That’s borderline. The fact that’s not in baseball is pretty crazy. He throws an absolute bowling ball of a sinker that you cannot hit in the air. He has a barrel rate of 4.8%. That’s in the 93rd percentile. And he does not walk batters. 4.9% walk rate. He throws hard. He has a 94.4 4 mph fast ball and he does an okay job of generating swing and miss. This is my ultimate concern though with Jose Ferrer. Everything I just said to you I can say about Gregory Santos becoming a Mariner. And that’s not an insult to Ferrer. That’s not really an insult to Santos. It’s an insult to relievers. I think you’ve got to have to be an elite reliever, you have to have more swing and miss. And yes, according to the metrics, there was a lot of bad luck here. An expected batting average of three or excuse me, an expected erra of 3.61 compared to the 4.4. FIP, a stat that has its flaws for sure, 3.03 compared to that number that I’ve given you. He’s he’s had some bad luck. But one of the reasons that you kind of you don’t ignore it, but the kind of one of the reasons why it doesn’t matter as much for a reliever is because not to go fold Billy Zayn on you, but you kind of create your own luck when you are a guy who doesn’t miss a ton of bets. Uh whiff rate of 24.8% 8% is slightly below average. K rate of 21.9 is slightly below average. And by that I mean using the 48th percentile on generating whiffs and the 45th percentile in generating strikeouts. Does get hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone 28.6% of the time. And like I said, he does have the ability to initiate that weak contact. an average exit velocity of only 89.1%. His hard hit rate, however, is 42.2. And I think some of that has to do with the fact that as a reliever, who doesn’t miss a lot of bats, especially throwing a ton of sinkers, and by the way, he throws his sinker 71% of the time. 71%. He throws his change up 22%, he throws his slider 7%. What’ll be really interesting for me is seeing whether Seattle lets him do that. Lets is kind of a weird term for it, but if Seattle wants him to use his slider more, just such a sliderheavy organization. Uh let’s take a look at the stats per pitch type. Like I said, he throws that fl he throws that sinker an awful lot. 70.6% to be exact. Hitters hit 309 against it. Um and they slug 420. That’s not great. It’s um it it expected batting average of 285 against it is lower, but not substantially lower. expected slugging percentage of 398 lower but not crazy lower than the 420 hard hit rate of 44.8 the slider. And this is one of the reasons I bring this up because hitters were uh struggled against the change. 221 average, 324 slugging percentage. Hitters really slugger. Hitters really struggled. They were not sluggered. They were not slugger build against him. 105 batting average, a 158 slugging percentage, a 52.5% whiff rate. There seems like the Mariners are going to ask him to throw that pitch more. And he generates a very large amount of movement. Large amount of movement just always sounds weird, but he generates plenty of movement with both the change up. Obviously, the sinker sinks. The slider is not a pitch that generates a ton. It’s It’s cut-like, but he gets results. He absolutely gets results with it. It’s an interesting profile, too, because he’s not a guy who generates a ton of extension, so it’s not really on top of you, but the effectiveness is what the effectiveness is. And let’s take a look at 2024 to see if there’s a massive difference between the two. Um well he only had seven played appearances in 2024 against him. Um but he generated an 87.5% whiff rate. I think you might see more sliders from Jose Ferrer. Now, left-handed reliever. And I think we’ve all we’re all well aware of the fact that the Caleb Ferguson thing, while not the disaster that some people pointed out to be, didn’t go great. Didn’t go the way that I think if you even ask Caleb Ferguson, the way he wanted it to go. And again, I should have had these windows open, but let’s take a look at the splits because the Seattle Mariners are going to probably task Joseé Ferrer with facing left-handers an awful lot. Molly, wake up. You’re just killing me. I love her to death, but that snoring is just too much. This is your first video. I apologize. Okay, right-handers got him pretty good. 192 played appearances. And it’s worth pointing out 192 played appearances compared to 102 against lefties. So decent size sample size against both. Against righties 323 380 422. That’s an 802 ops. Right-handers got him pretty good. Lefties did not. 186 217 304. That’s a 521 ops. strikeout to walk ratio of 26-2, 45 to 14 against righties. So again, he pounds the strike zone. Left-handers have a real tough time against him. And I don’t think it’s like really an arm angle thing. I just think it’s hard to hit lefties and it’s hard to hit lefties who have pitches that have so much movement on them. even the slider, you know, it’s more of a cutter, but like that’s the type of pitch that can be really effective. Uh he also outside of Well, let’s go over the months. In March, he has an RA of nine. Two appearances, two runs allowed. In April, he gives up 17 hits in 12 and two/3 innings and 10 runs. That’s a 7-Eleven RA. May a 3.52 ERA in 14 appearances. June 5.02 was really good in July and August. In July in 10 appearances a 2.16 ERA in August a 1.46 ERA. September not so great. This is worth pointing out. He takes over as the closer uh I think right after the trade of Kyle Finnegan and did okay. He did okay. He definitely will not be the closer for the Seattle Mariners, barring things that I cannot foresee. I just it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to be the closer, but he has a 5.84 RA. Seven of those saves in nine appearances. He did blow four saves of the 13 chances that he got uh excuse me, he blew he two of those chances. I went to the last 15 and last 30. Sorry about that. But he mostly pitched well in the second half. Mostly pitched well. He also didn’t like pitching at home in Washington very much. A 6.82 erra there compared to a 2.57 erra when he was away from whatever Washington Nationals Park is called. I can’t remember. It’s not important. So I like this trade. I don’t love it. I don’t think that uh Jose Ferrer is elite, but I do believe Jose Ferrer is good enough to really help this bullpen. It gives him that second solid lefty. And a bullpen of Andre Munoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Spire, Jose Ferrer, Eduard Bazardo, that’s a pretty solid five. Is it the best bullpen in baseball? No. Can it be good enough to help you win a World Series? I do think so. The ultimate question that a lot of people have is, is this good value for Harry Ford? I think it is. I personally believe it is. And there’s a lot of talk about, oh, why are you making this move? Couldn’t you have gotten a lot more for him at the deadline? I asked some people about this and and their answer was no. Now, there’s a lot of talk about the fact that the Mariners fairly publicly now came really close to getting Yanderon and I know some things. Well, I don’t know them. I was told some things. Here’s what I’ll say. This was not Harry Ford straight up for Durant. And I think whether you how much you believe in Jerry Dotto as a executive, you know, Jerry Dotto, if he’s making this deal, would have absolutely made that deal at the time because the value that you’re getting for him being a part of that postseason push, blah, blah, blah. There’s a chance that Harry Ford was involved in a package for Duron, but it wasn’t straight up. It would have been Ford and a couple of other very nice pieces that he ultimately didn’t feel comfortable getting. It’s totally fair to wonder what the Mariners are with Don, how much better they are, and whether or not they get that win, whether or not they can procure those final eight outs. Yeah, it’s definitely worth wondering. But it wasn’t just Harry Ford just gets it done. It’s a tough one. So, personally, I’m fine with this trade. I’m not in love with it. I don’t think it’s the steel of the century. I think that because Ferrer doesn’t miss many bats or enough bats to be an elite reliever at this stage, it’s tough for me to go gaga over it, but I think he’s really good and much better than his ERA suggests. You tell me what you think. Please hit like. Please hit subscribe. Please get me a sleep apnea machine for my dog if such a thing exists. Wow, 23 minutes. I talked for a long time. Welcome to Seattle, Jose Ferrer.

The Mariners acquired Jose Ferrer from the Nationals in exchange for Harry Ford. Was this good value? How does Ferrer help the Seattle bullpen, and why would Seattle give up on one of their top prospects?

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