Eagles vs. Chargers Statistical Breakdown (Monday Night Football Week 14)

Eagles vs. Chargers Statistical Breakdown (Monday Night Football Week 14)

Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, Monday Night Football, everything you need to know in 15 minutes. If you’ve never been here before, welcome. My name is Max. I make these for every prime time game as well as every game on Sunday to give you a unique edge looking at run scheme metrics, coverage data, and overall trends nobody really talks about because it relates to the scheme behind the game instead of just the numbers you see on the screen. Without further ado, let’s get into this. As always, in the description are links to my socials, Instagram, Tik Tok, Twitter. Make sure you are following on there for some additional content. Let’s look at this Eagles defense to start. The bottom line is they are great against the run, but they’re very susceptible to big plays from wide receivers, especially on the outside. They’re giving up the ninth most quarterback rush yards. We talked about it with Caleb Williams a few weeks ago. They’re also giving up 152 wide receiver receiving yards per game as well as the 10th most yards per carry and the ninth most rush yards per game. Where they’re really good is against tight ends. Minimal tight end production against them in the past. You can go look at whatever your favorite tight end is that played them. Nothing really. Obviously, Cole KT scored. The end zone production is not that bad, but in terms of overall yardage, you can scroll back up through these game logs. You got Jake Ferguson with 60 yards. You got Travis Kelce with 60 in week two. And that’s really it in terms of actual signature game. So, I like Aronda Gadson, maybe not as much as in this game. In terms of coverage trends, they’re above average in mantoman rate. So, they’ll do a bunch of different things, but when push comes to shove on third down, whether they’re sending four, five, or six, they’re probably going to play some type of man, some type of cover two man on a fourman rush, maybe a true cover one with a post safety and a fiveman rush. They like to play cover, they like to play man-to-man. That’s the bottom line. When Herbert sees man-to-man, he’s looking a little bit more at Lad McConi. He’s the leader in targets per route run, yards per route run, and he sees a solid uptick in target percentage. basically how often he’s targeted versus a specific coverage. The highest target percentage on the Chargers against man-to-man though is Keenan Allen in terms of most explosive, sorry, second most explosive beyond Lad Mankey is Quinton Johnson and that is their main out wide guy. What’s really interesting to note with these wide receivers is Lad McConi is the true slot guy, Quinton Johnson is the true outwide guy. Keenan Allen kind of does a little bit of both. And that to me scares me off of Keenan Allen this game because we don’t know where the production is going to come in terms of where he’s running his routes from. When you look at quarterback target rates, this is assuming Justin Herbert’s playing right. He’s listed as questionable. We have very minimal data with Tre Lance here. And truly, I I’ll get to my game pick at the end. If Tre Lance doesn’t play, I don’t think the Chargers win this game. Sorry, if Tre Lance plays, I don’t think the Chargers win this game. But Herbert is top five in slot target rate, which again, number one is Lad Makkey. But number two is Keenan Allen, but it’s also top 12 in outwide target rate, which leans more into Quinton Johnson than anybody else, but also Keenan Allen. So you can look at this as if it’s the best of both worlds for Keenan Allen. For me, I can’t confidently lean into him because of, you know, where he’s running his routes, how often he’s running his routes from the slot versus out wide. There’s no true trend that makes me feel really confident in him. When you look at the other side though, the Philadelphia Eagles, they are targeted outwide at the highest rate in the league, which is really interesting because you go look at some of the game logs against the Philadelphia Eagles, there haven’t been a ton of dominant outwide performances as the year has gone on, but the true number ones who get pumped the football outside like George picking CD Lamb, they had plenty of outwide targets when they played two weeks ago. Uh going back up guys like Jameson Williams who’s a true outwide guy whereas Aman Ross a St. A Brown slot guy had 12 targets but only caught two balls. You scroll back up to the bigger games that uh CD Lamb had in week one right CD Lamb seven for 110 in week one and that’s dropping some leaving some on the field. Puka Nikua 11 for 112. Acha Ibuka who again runs his routes a little bit diverse if you will in terms of where they are. Chris Goblin though when he plays takes the slot role where a megaooka had 101 yards and a touchdown against them. Courtland Sutton 99 yards against them. Uh Jordan Addison Justin Jefferson kind of also intermix in terms of where they run their routes but 128 for Addison and 179 for Justin Jefferson. The bottom line is out wide wide receivers, guys who truly run most of their routes from the outside, who get pumped the ball there, whether it’s comparatively frequent in terms of like Herbert’s, let’s say, throwing 30 times a game, but is only throwing uh or is thrown out wide at a higher percentage or it’s just a pure volume with a guy like Dak who’s throwing 40ome times a game and he’s pumping it out wide just because he’s throwing that many times. Teams who feed the ball out wide, guys like Quinton Johnston, will have plenty of opportunities and Keenan Allen should. I’m just not convinced it’s going to be as much as Johnston will. Everywhere else the Eagles are targeted is actually below average, which is interesting to note. In terms of the run scheme metrics, they’re getting Omar Hampton back this game, which is huge to note. It’s a very man gapheavy team. They’re a little more frequent in terms of man gap versus zone, but they’re much more efficient in man gap. They’re actually top 10 in man gap efficiency, the Los Angeles Chargers, and run the ball really, really well in those schemes. Here’s the interesting thing, though. When you go look at this Chargers offense, Kimani Vidal has been really good, but when he was playing with Omar on Hampton, it was a little bit more of a committee as the year went on, right? You look at Vidal and Hampton, the couple games that they had played together and or sorry, sorry, excuse me, Hampton and Naji Harris, not Hampton and Vidal when there was another counterpart in the backfield, right? It was more of a committee. You had eight and eight. You had 19 and six where Hampton started to take over and then the backfield was his for a week. He had a great game against the Chargers and then Washington he gets injured. How much do you believe in Omar Hampton taking over the backfield the first week he’s back after not playing since week five? I am not convinced it’s a super super great fantasy start or or pick to lean into. Like the matchup is there. I’m not convinced he’s going to have let’s say 15 carries. Like I’m not I’m not convinced it’s going to be like that for him. Especially when you look at last week, like Kamani Vidal, I know was a blowout last week against Vegas, but Kamani Vidal 25 for 126. Jarrett Patterson got a little bit more involved. I’m just not convinced in the Greg Roman offense that him coming back is going to be an immediate spark plug for this offense. I think absolutely think it will down the line, but I say all that and then say this run matchup is actually pretty solid. Like I I don’t hate this run matchup for the Los Angeles Chargers because again this Eagles defense 10th most yards per carry allowed, ninth most rushing yards per game allowed. Schematically they’re a little bit better against what the Chargers are also good in. So it’s a decent match there, but I almost don’t care. I’m watching Omar Hampton for sure. I’m not really leaning to Vidal even if the matchup’s good. Lad Man in the slot just because of the frequency against man-to-man. But Quinton Johnson’s the guy I’m watching on the outside. That’s the main guy I’m watching on the outside. On the other side, the Chargers defense, they tend to benefit from time of possession, but they’re really good against the pass, like awesome against the pass. My question becomes, can the Eagles get back to that 2024 mode where it’s Squan, Squan, Saquon shot down the field, Squan, Saquon? If they do, I think they have a great opportunity against this Chargers defense because they’re really good pretty much everywhere. They’re solid against the run. They’re solid against wide receivers, solid against quarterbacks, but they are giving up the ninth most yards per carry. does not translate to yards per game because they are good against the run. Again, they love that time of possession battle, but they’re giving up the ninth most yards per carry. They’re giving up the fewest pass yards per game in the NFL though. That to me is very interesting note. If you guys watch my Sunday breakdowns, you’ll watch me say the same thing about the Buffalo Bills. I’m recording this right after the Buffalo Bills just got ripped apart by Joe Burrow. So, they now the Chargers now allow the fewest pass yards per game in the NFL. They’re also top five in zone coverage rate, top three in middlefield open coverage rate. When Hertz sees these, it’s pretty similar across the board. Zone throwing a Saquon Barkley. You go look at Saquon’s game logs against some of these more zoneheavy teams and the proof is in the pudding for how often he will be targeted again in the pass game. In the pass game, you look at Dallas, one of the most zoneheavy teams in the league. The Duke caught seven balls, three catches against Green Bay. Chicago a little more zone he or sorry Chicago a little more middlefield open heavy but they’ve been playing more man. He didn’t catch a ball against them. Giants kind of all over the place. Minnesota middlefield open heavy. So he only had one catch there. But outside of that no true heavy heavy zone teams outside of Dallas again in week one where he got four balls. I think Saquon can make a huge difference in this game in the run game again because I do think there’s a small advantage there. But in the pass game, AJ Brown, oddly enough, has the highest uptick in target percentage against zone. That has been something that I literally blow blew my mind up until a couple weeks ago, too. The data didn’t love AJ Brown there. He’s seen the highest uptick in zone. And you look at his recent games, he’s getting fed the football more and more and more. 7 for 49, 8 for 110. Again, that’s a zoneheavy team. Middlefield open heavy team here. 10 for 32. AJ Brown is being utilized a little bit more, but then middlefield open Squan Devonte Smith steps up. That to me is where I’m really looking in the pass game. I’m looking at Dvonte Smith to have a bigger game this week and AJ Brown and got it tied for the third most or highest target run against middlefield open. Herz is throwing it out wide at a top 10 rate and he’s below average everywhere else. The Chargers are targeted out wide at a top 10 rate and targeted from the backfield at a top 14 rate. Right. They’re bottom 12 between the hashes, which is really interesting because as a team, again, when you play middlefield open, literally the middle of the field is open, between the hash is open, but they’re clo Well, closing is not the right word. They’re stopping production in the middle of the field, which is really interesting. Or at least stopping targets in the middle of the field. They’re bottom 12 in slot target rate. They’re bottom 12 in inline tight end target rate. So, I look at this Philadelphia Eagles offense with a true opportunity on the outside for AJ Brown, Devonte Smith to make a big difference in terms of the run scheme metrics. They’re balanced. The Eagles are in terms of production, how it relates to attempt percentage. There’s no true tip there. And I hate to do this, but on the Charger side, there’s also no true edge. Like, there’s no big stat. There’s no big schematic lean in the run game where I’m like, “Yeah, the Eagles have a big advantage or the Chargers have a big advantage.” Your guess is as good as mine. The Eagles haven’t run the ball super well. The Chargers have been holistically good against the run, but the efficiency numbers do not support how good the defense has been. Right? Teams are effectively running the football on them, but they’re getting blown out by the Chargers or the Chargers are winning the time possession battle so much that you don’t run the ball as much. So, I’m watching Devonte Smith and I’m definitely watching Saquon Barkley. In terms of the red zone edge, it’s Philly. Philly has the best red zone offense in the NFL, scoring on 75.86% 86% of their trips into the red zone, whereas Los Angeles Chargers are only scoring on 51% of theirs. It’s a big big difference in terms of red zone defense. Both of them are actually pretty good, right? Phillies stopping or shutting the door on half of them. The Chargers are right behind them at 55.26 percentage uh percent, but I really like Philly in the red zone. Interestingly enough though, I trust the Chargers on the line of scrimmage. They’re not protecting Justin Herbert as well, which is interesting, right? You would think Justin Herbert, this offensive line, it’s the pride of what they what they do, what they want. But Rashan Slater’s been injured since what, late August. Joe Walt’s been out for about a month now. They haven’t been protecting Herbert as well. You can see 3.3 sacks per game allowed. Whereas Philly is only allowing 2.3. But they’re really getting after the quarterback. You can see it. 2.8 sacks per game. That’s top 10 in the NFL. Whereas Philly, who has been a little better as of late, still only getting two sacks per game. I think the Chargers have a have true edge in the run game with Omar and Hampton coming back with how bad this Eagles defense has been against the run really all year long and I think the Bears expose something last week with Mungai Swift and the misdirection in the run game. Oddly enough guys I do think the Chargers win this game. I think assuming Herbert plays they have enough on the ground. I think defensively they can stop this Eagles pass and if they truly truly commit to stopping Saquon Barkley they have enough of a pass rush to affect Jaylen Herz. So I do think the Chargers pull off the upset. And if you guys did enjoy this video, make sure to leave a like. And if you are new, make sure you subscribe.

Here is everything you need to know, for your Fantasy Football Teams and your Player Breakdowns, about the statistics behind the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Chargers Monday Night Football Game (Timestamps Below).

Follow on X: https://x.com/loebsleads
Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/loebsleads/?hl=en
Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@loebsleads

Content provided for entertainment purposes only. @loebsleads picks and predictions are only opinions and not financial or other professional advice. No outcome is guaranteed. Viewers are responsible for knowing the laws in their respective states related to fantasy contests.

NFL picks, NFL predictions, NFL picks, NFL pick, NFL picks today, NFL predictions, NFL prediction, NFL prediction today, 2025 NFL, 2025 NFL, 2025 NFL picks, 2025 NFL picks, 2025 NFL predictions, 2025 NFL predictions, NFL predictions 2025, NFL predictions 2025, NFL picks 2025, NFL picks 2025, free NFL predictions