STUNNED: New York Mets LOSE Edwin Diaz to the Dodgers | Where Do They Go From Here?

STUNNED: New York Mets LOSE Edwin Diaz to the Dodgers | Where Do They Go From Here?

Well, the Mets lost them. Edwin Diaz is signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers. [Music] You are Locked On Mets, your daily New York Mets podcast, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Hello to all you amazing Mets fans. You’re listening to Locked On Mets, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Thank you for making Lockdown Mets your first listen every day. And thank you for making Lockd On the number one sports podcast network. On today’s bonus breaking news edition of Locked On Mets, we got to talk about Edwin Diaz signing with the Dodgers. I’ll break down the deal in the first segment. In the second segment, I’ll talk about what’s next for the Mets building out their bullpen. And then in the final segment, we’ll touch on Kyle Schwarber signing with the Phillies. Before we get to any of that though, I’m your host, Ryan Thicklestein. I’ve been covering the New York Mets on this show since the 2019 season. This is the number one daily podcast on the New York Mets. If you want to find any of my written work, you can do so over at justbball.com where I work as the editorinchief. Today’s episode’s brought to you by FanDuel. Random new customers can bet just $5 and if your bet wins, you’re going to get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download FanDuel today. Wow. Edwin Diaz is a Dodger. Now, if Diaz was going to sign anywhere else, the Dodgers were the team I was the most concerned with. I didn’t necessarily expect him to sign with the Blue Jays unless they came over the top with a five-year deal. The Dodgers were always the team that was lurking because what do they need? Just their bullpen, their starting rotation set. I mean, sure, the Dodgers could get greedy if they wanted to. They had the prospects to trade for TKO. They could, but they don’t have to. They got Snail, they got Yamamoto, they got Glass. Now, there were some reports that they’re actually shopping Glass. Now, maybe because they want to trade for somebody else. Who knows? Or sign somebody else. But regardless, between those names I mentioned, Roki Sasaki, all the different young pitchers, EMTT Sheen, I mean, they just have a a embarrassment of riches when it comes to starting pitching and their lineup is pretty set. So, there was one area of need, the bullpen, and of course, they were going to set their sights to the best reliever available, and that was Edwin Diaz. Edwin Diaz is signing a three-year, $69 million deal with the Dodgers. And here’s the part that I think frustrates Mets fans. It’s a three-year deal. The Mets were always saying that they didn’t want to go beyond three years. The market kind of spoke to them on that that they were correct on that because no team went beyond three years for Edwin Diaz, but one team went to $23 million per. And from everything I’ve seen so far, there are no deferrals in this contract. This is just $69 million straight. $23 million per season for Edwin Diaz setting a new benchmark for relievers. The highest AAV ever was actually Josh Haters deal because Edwin Diaz’s 5year $102 million deal with the Mets had a bunch of deferrals in it which took the present day value down a peg. So it actually came in a little bit under what Josh her got with the Astros where he makes $19 million per. Edwin Diaz blows that out of the water with $23 million per because you don’t see relievers get paid like this. This is starting pitcher money that Edwin Diaz is getting. And you might say, well, it’s Steve Cohen. Why couldn’t the Mets get there? Apparently, according to reports, I’m in my car and I don’t have any any internet on my laptop and I’m using my phone to record. So, I can’t pull up exactly who had all the reporting. I know Wilson was the first that that had the deal. Anthony Doma, I believe, is the one who reported that the Mets final offer was 3 years, 66 million with slight deferrals. And they let Edwin know they had wiggle room to go beyond that. And according to Anthony Nomo, the perception is Edwin Diaz never brought it back to the Mets. And they’re a little blindsided right now. I think they expected the ability to match the final offer and Edwin didn’t give it to them. So, which side are you mad at? And I feel like that’s where fans always go to at a time like this. It’s am I am I mad at the player or am I mad at the team? And I think more often than not, we get mad at the team when it was the players decision. Not to defend the team because personally, I don’t see the harm in going to a four-year deal, right? Go to a four-year deal. You don’t want to go to five, fine. Would four years 80 have gotten it done? That’s $11 million more guaranteed. Four years 84 million have got it done. I mean, if you tack on an extra year, the AAV is going to come down. If you were comfortable going and do 22 million per with deferrals, why couldn’t you take that exact same contract, give them a fourth year, and roll? That part I could understand getting frustrated with just the apprehension to go longer term. At the same time though, you’re also protecting yourself against potential mistakes. It’s it’s a really tough game to play right now of who to get mad at because again every right to be pissed off that the Mets just didn’t do whatever it took to get Edwin Diaz to come back. If you had Edwin Diaz and Deon Williams in your bullpen, you were set. You were set at the back end with two of the best closers in baseball. And we’ll talk about Deon Williams probably more in the next segment because I don’t think that this is as much of a step back as fans are assuming. I think that Devin Williams is a lot closer to Edwin Diaz than people are giving him credit for. But I wanted both of them in Mets uniforms next year. both of them working together at the back end of that bullpen because Edwin Diaz throughout pretty much his entire Mets tenure was always dealing with a lack of viable setup men bridging the gap to him. So, I didn’t want Devin Williams to have that same problem, which now we’ll see if the Mets can reinvest that $22 million they’re about to spend on Edwin Diaz and invest it the right way so that they could build that bridge to Devin Williams. But honestly, when it comes down to the difference between those pitchers, I I don’t think it’s that drastic. But having both was was really going to give you something special. And that’s gone now. And instead, you’re left with Devin Williams. And it’s a perceived step back, even if it isn’t an actuality that much of a step back. I’m sure in the front office, they don’t think that it’s that much of a step back, but still, it hurts. It’s the perception of the deal, too. is the fact that he goes to the Dodgers, the Goliath that you’re chasing, the team that’s at the mountaintop that you’re going to have to get past. Now, you have to get past Edwin Diaz. You could be sitting in a great spot in a series and Edwin Diaz can be the guy that is the game changer. Or you could be trying to claw your way back into an NLCS and you’re in game seven and you’re down by a run and who’s waiting for you in the ninth? Edwin Diaz did a good job not cursing there. But Edwin Diaz didn’t come back to the Mets. How do we know the Mets would not have said, “Oh, you got a three-year, $69 million deal with no deferrals from the Dodgers. We will do that, too.” He did not give the Mets that option because who knows, maybe when you actually start to get those meetings from the Dodgers, when you start to envision yourself pitching in LA, great place to live, pretty much a guaranteed chance at a ring or multiple rings across a three-year deal. Yeah, Edwin Diaz is always going to be a great Met, but if you want to win a World Series and you want to get paid more than anywhere else, the Dodgers aren’t a bad option. I I think it goes both ways here. There’s there’s responsibility on every side of it. Edwin Diaz could have came back to the Mets and they probably match it and this never happens. So, in that sense, this is on Edwin. It was his decision. He’s a free agent. Has every right to do whatever he wants. but he chose to leave the Mets. It’s not like they were incredibly far off with their offer. It’s a million dollars of difference per year. 1 million. And they said they had wiggle room, so they could have got there. Now, maybe he didn’t like the approach from the Mets. Maybe he didn’t feel the love from the Mets like he did from the Dodgers. Maybe he didn’t like that they signed Devin Williams before they signed him and they maybe prioritized somebody else. But at the same time, aren’t you glad they did? Cuz imagine they didn’t sign Devin Williams first. Deon Williams market was moving and it was moving fast and there was more teams in on Devin than on Edwin Diaz because the price was, you know, easier for other teams to reach. There’s pretty much two teams in baseball that could have afforded the contract that Edwin Diaz just got. the Dodgers and the Mets. There’s not another team, even the Blue Jays, couldn’t have justified giving a reliever $23 million per season. It’s ridiculous. It honestly is. You Edwin Diaz hasn’t even pitched. I mean, we’ll see with the Dodgers, but I don’t even think he’s gotten to, you know, 70 innings in in a season from the Mets. He’s not one of those guys that’s out there all the time. Part of that is because of the role, but let’s just say it’s what, let’s even call it, you know, 60. Actually, there’s a chance. There’s a chance. How about this one? There’s a chance that Edwin Diaz is the closer of the Dodgers. What if he only pitches 46 innings? You’re paying what, like half a million an inning, you know? So, when you put into context, and obviously he’s probably going to pitch more than that, but he’s going to be getting when it’s all said and done hundreds of thousands of dollars probably for every inning that he pitches, which is crazy. And that that’s the value of a closer, the value of the back end of games. But this is a ridiculous contract at the end of the day. And I I do think that there is a way the Mets come out of this with a better bullpen than they would have had if it was just Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams and they had gone to such an extent to get Edwin that they were just filling the rest of the gaps in with just marginal, you know, signings to to try to make the rest of it work. So that’s what we’re going to go through next. What is next for the Mets bullpen? We’ll talk about it in just a minute. First, today’s episode’s brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA is back. 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You also get membersonly Discord access and more. All for just $5 a month or $50 a year. Go to lockedonmets.supcast.com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. All right, so let’s now look at where the Mets bullpen is going. And obviously the Devin Williams signing looms large now because he is your closer. And I will tell you this, you give me the option, I can I I have the ability to rewrite history. I can go back and I can rip up the Devin Williams contract and I can get Edwin Diaz on the three-year $69 million deal. And I’ll tell you what, I wouldn’t do it. I would not do it. The Devin Williams contract is much better than the Edwin Diaz contract. You’re talking about a three-year deal worth 51 million with deferrals to take the present- day value to 15 million. What does that mean for Steve Con and the New York Mets? as a repeat tax offender, he’s pretty much paying, you know, a hundred. He’s paying double on everybody, right? It’s 110 cents on every dollar, but let’s just call it double. So, for Devin Williams, he’s going to cost the MS this upcoming season 30 million, not 15. When you look at the present day value of the contract, the average annual value, that’s the number that he’s taxed on. So, right now, Devin Williams contract is worth $45 million because a lot of it’s getting paid out a decade from now. So, $15 million per year. Edwin Diaz, $23 million per year, no deferrals. That would have cost Steve Con and the Mets $46 million. So, a $16 million difference when you factor in the luxury tax penalties. And that’s just one year of it. over three years, is it really worth paying close to $50 million more for Edwin Diaz compared to Devin Williams? Where if you look at these two guys over the past five years, it’s pretty much the same production. Now, Edwin Diaz was much better last season. I get it. and Devin Williams’s first year in New York was bad. But it just makes me laugh that so many Mets fans who are living in in recency bias are looking at Devin Williams, looking at his RA this past season and saying, “We can’t possibly get this guy who can’t pitch in New York. We have to get Edwin Diaz.” Because he’s always been able to pitch in New York. Ignoring the fact that Edwin Diaz’s first season with the Mets was a train wreck. A train wreck. worse than Devin Williams by a large margin because at the end of the 2019 season, Devin William, excuse me, Edwin Diaz couldn’t pitch in the seventh inning, much less the ninth. It was Seth Lugo and Justin Wilson, if memory serves, but Edwin Diaz, every time he pitched, he was giving up a home run. That was the juice ball season and everything else, but you could see it. He just could not handle New York. 2020 comes around, doesn’t have to see fans, has a good year. 2021 an okay season. It was good but it wasn’t great. 2022 best reliever in baseball. 2023 out lost year because of the knee injury. 2024 a good season and he was really good in that playoff run. Then you get to 2025 he was elite again. But Devin Williams outside of this past season has largely been elite. So to put yourself in this position where you are paying a reliever $23 million per season when you had the avenue to buy low on Devin Williams instead of buying high on Edwin Diaz. And if you’re front office comes to the analysis or comes to the conclusion through your analysis that these guys are pretty much the same pitcher. They’re going to give you close to the same results. Devin Williams is the contract you signed knowing that you could still potentially get Edwin Diaz and that didn’t work out. But you know what? Now you have a lot more money to play with to build out your bullpen. It’s just going to be interesting to see what the Mets do with it. Again, I would prefer the Devin Williams contract to the Edwin Diaz contract. I’d rather have both, but it’s not my money to spend. And as much as we can all say it’s Steve Conn, who cares? It’s Steve Con, who cares? The Mets have had a very consistent payroll the last three years. You’re talking about $340 million is their sweet spot. That that’s where they’ve been year over year over year. Well, if that is where they’re at or that’s where they’re going to need to get to and they’re currently sitting at about 275 million, if you give almost a third of what you have to Edwin Diaz, well, now what’s left for the other guys? I know the Mets can go beyond it. I know that penny pinching for Steve Con is ridiculous. I understand the frustration. To me, I just get back to the point of Edwin Diaz chose the Dodgers, but the Mets did not get caught with their pants down because they got Devin Williams beforehand. So, they have a closer. They’re good. They have to get some setup men and they have $22 million that they’re about to give Edwin Diaz that they can spread around. And so the question then becomes, what do they do next? Because if they go out and for that same amount of money that the Dodgers spent, for the $23 million, if they get Robert Suarez and they trade for Trevor McIll, their bullpen’s going to be better than if they just got Edwin Diaz because it’s three arms, not two. You just have to trust the front office now to figure out the back end of the bullpen and to find a couple set of men that make sense. Whether that is now being the team that spends on Suarez, though I think the Blue Jays will still be in the market for that one. So, I don’t think that they’re just the only team in on it as the other finalist for Edwin Diaz that that now they just get handed the Robert Suarez consolation prize. I don’t think that’s going to be that easy. And I don’t even know if that’s the best way to spend your money. Honestly, I I I could make an argument you’d be better off signing Tyler Rodgers and trading for Trevor McIll, but the Mets have their work cut out for them. There’s no doubt about it. I I mean, I’m not going to say that this is not a loss. It’s a loss. It’s a big one. Edwin Diaz was a huge part of the Mets and he had a chance, when you talk about legacy, to go down as the best Mets closer ever. I don’t even know who that is. I don’t know if you say John Franco. I I I don’t know. I don’t know where people uh put, you know, that that recognition. I don’t know who gets that honor. Is it Jesse Arasco because of of 86? I don’t know. the legacy side of stuff, it it is getting tired and it’s getting it’s getting frustrating as a fan because the sentimentality of it, you want to see Edwin Diaz stay in a Mets uniform, close big games in the World Series as a Met. You want to see Brandon Nemo get to finish off his career in number nine, get in their rafters. But at the end of the day, if the only thing that you ultimately care about is getting that World Series and finally seeing the Mets win it all at their 40 years, then you know what? Trust the guy that’s getting paid to do the job. Trust the team that is assembled that is uh, you know, some of the most wellrespected baseball minds that we have. Trust that that front office is not just stupid and that they know what they’re doing. Because I’ll tell you what, if you pulled 30 GMs right now and said, “Which contract would you rather have, Devin Williams or Edwin Diaz?” There might not be a single team outside of maybe the Dodgers that says Edwin Diaz. The Mets got a better deal. The Dodgers though got the closer out the better season. And if trends continue from last year, yeah, it’s going to look bad. But if the trends of the last five years repeat themselves out over the next three, I bet you that Devin Williams and Edwin Diaz are very close to each other when it comes to production and you are probably sitting in pretty much the same space that you would have been as a team overall if you had just signed Edwin instead of Devin Williams. Again, both would have been amazing. I wish it happened, but now you got to pivot to other things. You got to look at other options in the bullpen. You got to look at improving that rotation. There’s still bats that have to be considered. It’s big news though. It’s big news. That’s why you’re getting a little bonus episode here where I break it all down for you because I felt like I couldn’t wait until the morning and I’ll still give you guys a show for the morning as well. We’ll see if any other news breaks. But I want to do one final segment here because Kyle Schwarber signed. So, we’re going to talk about that to close out the show here in just a minute. The World Cup is coming back to North America for the first time since 1994. And the 48 teams for the first time ever. It’s going to be massive. But let’s be honest, getting tickets is usually the hardest part. That’s why Game Time is clutch. The Game Time finally gives fans a real advantage when it comes to snagging seats. With Game Time, you can track you can track price drops in real time and get alerts when great seats open up and you can buy tickets the moment they hit the app. It puts the power back in your hands and makes going to the World Cup realistic instead of impossible. All you’re going to do is you’re going to pick a game, tap a section, and you can have your ticket locked in within minutes. No confusion, no hunting through the fine print. Plus, prices include fees upfront, which I love. So, you’re not going to get that last second surprise at checkout. And you can set alerts for teams and matches to make it easy to grab tickets the moment they drop instead of missing out. Take the guesswork out of buying World Cup tickets and every match, every concert or event with Game Time by downloading the Game Time app. Create an account, use the code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, download the app, make an account, and use the code locked on MLB for $20 off. Swipe tap ticket go game time. [Music] For an everydayer that always tunes into the show, make sure to become a Locked on Mets insider. It’s our texting service where we get updates from me. Anytime news breaks on the Mets, you can ask me questions anytime, take part in our locked on Mets sign photo giveaways, and get the line graphics sent to your phone each day so you know who’s in the starting lineup without ever having to go on social media. If you want to be locked on Mets insider, you can find a link in the episode description or go to subtext.com/lockedonmets. Last little bit of news in this show. Kyle Schwarber resigns with the Phillies. Five years $150 million. Wow. I’m pretty sure for just baseball I had Schwarber I want to say four for 120 or maybe I had like three for I certainly didn’t get five years. Let’s just start there. So a incredible deal by Philly. Apparently the Mets offer according to Michael Morano uh Marino. Regardless, he’s reporting that the Mets had a 4-year 120, excuse me, a three-year $120 million deal on the table for Shoreber, which would have been 40 million per. If that’s the case, can you just sign Pete Alonzo and stop messing around? That’s my ultimate thing through all of this. Give the fans a bone. It’s okay to do it. Get them off your back and just sign Pete Alonsozo. Just do it. If you were gonna give Schwarber 40 million per, you can give Pete Alonzo 30 million per. Give him four for 120 and call it a day. I feel like he takes that. If he doesn’t, go to a fifth year, take the AEV down. But if that that reporting is true and they really did offer Schwarber 120 million over 3 years, that’s just crazy. It’s hard to connect everything. It’s hard to connect the Diaz contract. Not that it’s different markets entirely, but just like why were they so keen to go that far in on Schwarber unless it was just to drive up the price for Philly. But I don’t know. It’s crazy. It’s crazy if that’s true. If it if if they really offered 40 million per over three years, then to me there’s absolutely no excuse not to sign Pete Alonzo, unless you just drastically value Schwarber more. But I I I don’t I get that Schwarber had a better season. I get that he plays in a different ballpark than Pete Alonzo. Not that that accounts for all 56 of the home runs that he hit, but it helps. If Pete Alonzo is an assistance, bank to be hitting more home runs. I look at the bad ball data, I don’t see a drastic difference. Pete Alonzo is going to actually hit for a higher average. Shorbber’s going to get on base at a higher clip. Neither is going to play a defense. Um, but Pete Alonzo will play bad defense at first. Shorbber, no defense at all. But if you’re that in on Shore, you got to sign Pete. And part of me just thinks that this was driving up the price on Trober and the Phillies went to 5 for 150 for a 33y old. So I mean it is what it is on that one. But it’s just interesting. The Mets sort of need a move now. And I don’t think it it’s just to satisfy fans. I mean that that would be nice and would go a long way, but I don’t know. They they they need to make sure they don’t miss too much more cuz they missed on Edwin Diaz. They did. You know, they they they clearly wanted him and they weren’t able to get the deal done. If they put three for 66 on the table, so $66 million, $22 million per regardless of the deferrals. if they put that contract on the table, they were not signing Devin Williams and then just sort of waiting it out on Edwin and not really being aggressive and just letting it pass by. They tried. They did try. They really if they did give that three for 120 deal to Schwarber, that offer, they really did put a a full court press to steal Schwarber from the Phillies. So now what do you do? Diaz went somewhere else. Schwarber returned to Philly. So, what’s the next priority? Is there time? Pete Alonzo is still in Orlando. You want to meet with Pete and get a little something done? How about that? You going to sign Robert Suarez? You’re going to trade with Freddy Peralta and Trevor McIll in the same deal. What are you going to do? Because if you come out of the winter meetings and you don’t make any other moves, Mets fans are not going to be happy. That’s going to be all though for this little bonus edition of Locked on Mats. Going to try to get this thing up here pretty soon so that you guys hopefully can have this for your drive home for those of you uh listening to the show on your commute and I’ll have something for your morning drive tomorrow. I’ll do some type of a show. If there’s more news, that’s obviously the ideal thing to react to, but if not, I’m sure there’s plenty of other ways we can cover this on tomorrow’s show. I appreciate all of you for tuning in. Make sure you follow, rate, and review wherever you get your podcast. Hit that subscribe button if you are watching on YouTube. Thank you for making lockdown match your first listen every day. And thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network.

New York Mets lose Edwin Diaz to the Los Angeles Dodgers as a dramatic free agent move shakes up the NL landscape.

Are the Mets’ World Series dreams slipping away, or is there a silver lining with Devin Williams taking over the closer role?

Ryan Finkelstein breaks down Diaz’s $69 million contract and analyzes how the Mets’ bullpen strategy pivots after missing out on their elite closer.

Key discussion points include Devin Williams’ value compared to Diaz, potential replacements like Robert Suarez and Trevor McGill, and the impact of luxury tax concerns on Steve Cohen’s roster decisions.

Plus, the Phillies successfully retain Kyle Schwarber, leaving fans wondering if it’s finally time for the Mets to lock up Pete Alonso long-term.

The Mets face mounting pressure to make a splash—will they respond before fan patience runs out?

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