Locked On Guardians 2026 MLB Draft Lottery Live Stream

Locked On Guardians 2026 MLB Draft Lottery Live Stream

Hello and welcome to a special live edition of Locked on Guardians. Justin will be joining us. Uh while this is locked on Guardians, we are live for any fan base honestly who is confused, needs information, wants to know how the MLB draft lottery works. It is a relatively new system. This I believe is our fourth year having a draft lottery and there is a lot to learn every single year. So with the lottery um you know we will explain what happens. We will talk about the ramifications and paying attention to who moves up and who moves down and the why of it. Uh big thank you already to uh Pat Binger and Gray Kids who are already making comments and to the 28 of you who are live as we prepare to see what happens. I’ve got uh hello George. I’ve got, sorry, my cat is biting me. Uh, for attention, we have I have the uh the lotto live so I can make sure that I am hearing it. That’s why I’ve got the weirdness going on in my ear uh on the one side, but you know, I want to make sure that I can see what’s happening. So, some quick notes on the draft. One, Colorado, Washington, and the Angels cannot move up in this year’s draft. Uh they had high picks for Colorado uh two years in a row, top six picks uh for Angels and Washington, they can only have a top six pick every other year than them being higher revenue teams. So those three can’t move up. As a matter of fact, if you go back to when Cleveland won the lottery, technically they didn’t win the lottery that year. And you’re saying, “Wait, yeah, they did. They drafted Travis Bazana.” Technically the Washington Nationals won and they had to redo it because Washington wasn’t allowed to win. Cleveland won in the redo. So, in this case, Colorado, Washington, Los Angeles, none of them can move up. They are picking 10, 11, and 12. Um, I guess I should uh Yeah, don’t forget to like the stream. That helps us out. Uh, I know you’re joking, but there’s actually quite a few quarterbacks. And last year’s draft had a left tackle in it that I talked about. Um, who was a gosh, who was the guy? Alabama had a player who was a left tackle. So, that is Why does my phone keep turning off? I want to keep up to date on the draft. Um, but we have had every year there’s quite a few quarterbacks honestly and then we have uh, you know, a multiple, like I said, one left tackle a year ago. It’s going to bother me. It was maybe he wasn’t at his brother played tackle for the University of Alabama and I can’t think who it is now. Um, the joys of getting old. Uh, you can watch it on the MLB site. uh you go to the article on it and there’s a little streaming video that for some reason my phone keeps timing out on. It’s not viewing it as as being in use because the MLB site likes to not work properly. But uh to go back into it, talked about the three teams that can’t move up. There is one team that has desperately to move up or they’re going to fall back and that’s the New York Mets. They are currently slotted to pick 17 unless they win the lottery and move in the top six. If you move in the top six, you are protected. you cannot move down. You have nothing happen to your pick. So, if the Mets somehow vault themselves all the way up into the top six, then they’ll keep their pick. Otherwise, because of all their spending, they have to fall 10 spots down to 27, which is an interesting year because lots of teams have to fall this year. Toronto, the Dodgers, the Mets, the Phillies, um, are all moving backwards. That is why Cleveland, which again, this is mostly a Cleveland thing. If there’s, if you’re not a Cleveland fan, ask questions. We’ll still answer. This is for everyone because the draft lottery is not well explained. It is not well represented. It’s not well done. We started doing this a few years ago and realized people need it. They want it. And that’s what we’re here is to provide that information. But if you are a fan of, you know, one of the other teams, um, ask those questions. But for Cleveland fans, if the Mets move up, Cleveland will pick 20th. If the Mets don’t move up, they will pick 19th. And then Cleveland is also scheduled currently right now to pick 29th no matter what because the Mets pick moving up or down will not affect that. And then basically the only reason um the only reason the um is is if Zack Allen signs for more than 50 million, then Cleveland’s pick would instead of being 29 would be 30. So, they’re going to pick either 29 or 30 with their competitive bounds pick and then they’ll pick either 19th or 20 with their main draft pick. Um, George, which team uh are you a fan of? I have the percentages pulled up over here. Uh, the Mets have a 67% chance. So, if you are a Mets fan, then that’s low. Astros 34 is the lowest. White Socks have the best chance. Twins, Pirates, and Orioles. I’ll drop into, sorry, I’m trying to have the stream on my phone so I can keep you all up to date. Cardinals. Cardinals have a 2.35% chance to move up. Um, but didn’t they move up last year? Where was that two years ago? That might have been the Weatherhole draft or they got a slight bump. But if you’re curious about some of the names, I did a way too early mock draft that I will drop here in the chat. Um, you can get look at some names. This was based off of just odds to pick high and I will put that here in the chat. So if you want to look at some of the names for this year’s draft class. It is a free article that uh yeah it’s just you know when I get the time to write I write for fun. So I did a for fun mock draft. Uh Rockch Chilowski is far and away the stud of this class right now. um you can come up with all of your jokes um in terms of you know yeah we’ve heard them all through the years in terms of uh funny witty little comments of uh I’m trying to think where where did it all start like you know I think about hockey with fail for nail because that comes to mind but what was the first one of those first one of those to come up and make one of those statements um but Rockchowski is is you the player in this class right now. You know, he was a guy that I thought, you know, could have been a firstrounder out of high school. Um, you know, he was a football a quarterback in football to go back to Bubba’s question and he has just dominated at UCLA. Now he’s facing lesser competition um in terms of you know who uh he’s facing lesser competition in terms of who he faces in the Big 10. Okay. Suck for luck. Yeah, that’s probably the beginning of it. But um I will bounce back in one second everyone. I just have to do a quick pause. Um I think my kid is locked outside. Give me one second everyone. [Music] Okay, sorry. I won’t be right back. But sorry about that. my daughter managed to find her way inside in spite of the million doorbells that I’m not sure if people could hear or not. But at this point in time, we’re all kind of waiting and seeing how they’re going to announce this. And the first kind of heads up in terms of if it is if the Mets will fall backwards is who is picking at pick. um when we find out who is is picking, not necessarily at the first selection, not at pick se uh 18, though that might tell us too. If pick 18 is Cincinnati, then the Mets fell backwards. If pick 18 is another team, uh it’s either going to be So if it’s if it’s Cincinnati, the Mets are falling back. If it is hu um if it’s Houston, then the Mets went forward. It’s starting now for someone asking who it is. They’re bringing out the uh notification now. Guardians can’t move up. Uh playoff teams can’t move up. Um so, but they can move up if the Mets fall back. The Mets as long as they don’t move up in the draft will fall back 10 spots due to them being over the luxury tax spending limit. So, um, the Guardians can technically move up from 20 to 19 if the Mets fall, which is expected. Any insight in the Dodgers deferred money again for Edwin Diaz? I mean, they’re allowed to do it, so they’re just going to keep doing it because deferred money um, flattens the curve of your total cost and it makes it so your luxury tax payments are less. So deferring money lowers luxury tax payments and it low lowers, you know, what it’s going to cost you to in terms of having to pay luxury taxes. It’s a way of circumventing and avoiding some of the luxury tax costs. So it’s a way for the rich to stay rich when it comes to the Dodgers. Excuse me. But yeah, we will uh you know, pretty soon start getting some of these picks going in. If you’re Guardians fans, by the Guardians fans, if you’re a Guardian fan, by the way, if uh the Edwin Diaz deal did slightly affect Cleveland because Edwin Diaz means that the Dodgers are giving up their second and fifth round picks and the Mets are getting a fourth. So, Cleveland is now moving up in the third and fourth rounds. And uh so they’re going to have a little bit more pool money thanks to that. And they move up one spot. So, it’s about 15,000 extra in pool money. And as people who follow this team in depth know, um the one thing they do is spend just about every dime of their draft and and the money they get in the pool. That is one area that they will always spend right up to the limit. And Arthur has a good point here as oh here as well. Um inflation means the money they pay later is worth. Yeah. So it’s also too every the inflation always exists. Uh, you know, I the thing I’ll say is when he because he’s he’s a draft eligible sophomore. So when a draft eligible sophomore has a bad year, he typically falls down even further. So it’s like if he has a really rough year, he probably turns into more of a second rounder because there’s just not as much data to back it up um when you have a draft eligible sophomore. But it’s possible. You know, guys slide every year. There’s always a few players when you look at it um who end up going much later than we projected them. I I mean they do it almost every year. The only time they had leftover money was in 2020. And when they did in 2020, it was a weird draft and just a weird year. I can get behind that. I got nothing against the Cardinals. So, we are here. Here we go. So, it’s going to start here at 18. And again, depending who we see here, if it is Houston, then the Mets moved up. If it’s the Reds, then uh Cleveland’s picking 19. So, it’s the Reds. So, the Mets are moving down. The Mets have to drop 10. Oh, the Mets would have been 14, actually. So, they’re going to move down to 24 for the Mets. So, the Mets are moving down. So, the Mets officially are 24th instead of 14, which means Cleveland is officially picking 19th in this year’s draft. So, Cleveland’s first rounder is now officially 19. So this would be Houston if things go according to chalk with Houston being 17. Houston is 17. They stay at their spot. No moving up for the Houston Astros. They I mean they move up one spot because of the Mets sliding but other than that it is the same. Uh yeah it is the Reds and the Guardians picking back to back 189. Cleveland is they have picked 19. It was not a very strong pick. I want to say 20th was where they took CC Sabathia. So, Cleveland has some history at at 20. Uh, next up should be Kansas City. And if we don’t see Kansas City with this pick, then they moved up. Kansas City has moved up and so is San Francisco. So, we have two teams moving up here already. Kansas City and San Francisco are both rising because Texas was supposed to pick after them. So, this means we have two teams in the top six we know now already, which is San Francisco and Kansas City. So, two teams have jumped up, which is really bad when you’re the Mets because you have two teams that moved up right in front of you. So, Arizona is what you’d expect at this situation due to those teams that moved up. We knew that San Francisco and Kansas City had moved up. Um, you know, that was the situation. So, teams are going to be sliding down. Every year there’s a team in the teens that jump. Uh it’s, you know, nice if you’re a Kansas City fan. They’ve had a few jumps. Uh they’ve had some good lottery luck, honestly, over the course of their career. So, we’re now going to see who is here at 14. This should be the Angels, right? No, not necessarily. Okay, cuz uh yeah, the Angels will be 12 basically. So, this is Miami. This is according to chalk again, Miami Marlins should be right here. This is the team that has uh and this is what stinks for Miami. Miami would have picked ninth, but because two teams moved up and then there’s the block of three teams, they have to pick 10, 11, and 12. Miami fell from 9 to 14. That’s a huge drop. So, Miami is paying a big cost in terms of a drop down. If this is St. Louis and St. Louis is also getting massively hosed with those two teams jumping up and then the block of three teams that can’t move up in the draft. It is say St. Louis and Miami both dropped five spots. Very bad luck for St. Louis. Sorry team uh Big V. Also bad luck for St. Louis. They went from 8 to 13. That’s a huge drop. So, the Cardinals and Marlins are both paying uh the price for where they aligned because we know the next picks are going to now be the Angels, the Nationals, and the Rockies. Those teams can’t move up and they can’t move down. Uh so, they are just in these spots. That means the Cardinals. And with those two teams going up, the big cost for the the Marlins and the D, no, Marlins and the Cardinals. Marlins and um so for those three teams they can’t pick high in the draft. Uh they if you are a smaller market team you can only pick in the top six two years in a row. If you are a larger market team it can only be every other year. So when you immediately get eliminated or so when they can’t pick in the when you can’t win the lottery you automatically get shunted down to the 10th 11th and 12th picks. There’s three teams this year. So those three teams that cannot win the lottery were automatically uh given 10 11 12. And that’s we already know that 11’s Washington, 12’s the Angels, and 10 is Colorado. No matter what, those three teams are there. They can’t move up, they can’t move down, they’re stuck in place, which hey, you would say, well, maybe that’s good for them. But the other side is like Colorado had the worst record in baseball and they’re picking 10th. Washington was supposed to have a top five pick. They’re at 11. The Angels would have also been a top five pick and they’re at 11. So, uh, Colorado as we knew. So now it gets I I appreciate that Jordan that uh I mean give me Brendan Donovan any day. I would love to see Brendan Donovan go uh in that Cleveland lineup. But now now we’re back to where it gets interesting. So this should be Tampa. If this is not Tampa here, then Tampa has also moved up. So we’re looking to see if it’s Tampa here at nine. So, Atlanta, so Tampa has moved up. We now know three teams in the top uh six. So, Tampa has moved up. San Francisco has moved up. Kansas City has moved up. The Braves drop. And for a team that’s projected to pick six, they’re now picking ninth due to the three teams moving up. That sinks again. That’s top 10 going from more the middle to more the back is it’s quite a bit of loss of pool money. That’s one of the other things. It’s not just that you’re losing out on the chances to draft players. you’re losing that pool money that allows you to maneuver and sign, you know, a larger group of of people. The athletics here, that means this is chock. They move down. Um, at this point, Baltimore would be the next selection. So, if this is Baltimore, then we know that the the top is set. Baltimore is supposed to have the fourth pick. We know that if Baltimore moves into this spot here, um, then we we have our top six. So, whoever you see here is kind of the one team that gets left out of the top six. Uh, essentially, it’s either Baltimore or Pittsburgh, probably. I mean, I guess the Twins maybe. I think Chicago is guaranteed. So, it is Baltimore. So, the top three teams made it. Chicago, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh in terms of of record. The next the three teams that jumped up was number 13 Kansas City, number 12 San Francisco, number seven Tampa. To give you an idea, the odds of Kansas City moving up were 84.84 Giants 1.01 they both jumped the Rays 3.03 and I believe ninth overall pick I’m trying to remember I think the year Cleveland picked they were slotted to pick eight when they won the lottery so very low chance at that top pick. We have three teams that have moved up so far. Uh which also means top six picks will have three American League Central teams. You’re going to have the White Socks, you’re going to have the Twins, and you will have the Kansas City Royals. Three of the top six picks will be in the American League Central. I believe that has not happened since 2024 where it was the Guardians, Royals, and White Socks who all had top six selections. So, yeah. Um, Kansas City, I think, in particular, stands out for just the level of jump. Um, and for a team that has kind of a weaker minor leagues, uh, it’s nice for them. Now, of course, they can’t really do anything with that pick. You know, if anyone’s out there like, “Oh, can they trade the pick?” Nope. But they could trade their competitive balance pick. Um, it also sets up a situation where, you know, they they just being able to get a top player. I I got to be fair, though. Uh, with the Royals being a near playoff team, I I’m really hoping they don’t end up I’m hoping they’re sixth here. No knock. um on on that fan base. Um but yeah, right now uh we have a commercial timeout. We’re kind of waiting to see what is going to happen. Where are we at, Jeff? What’s going on? Uh we have finished off the initial batch. Um top six is there. The Royals jumped into the top six from 12. The Giants jumped in the top six from 11. And the Rays jumped into the top six from nine. The biggest losers so far are the Marlins and Cardinals who both fell five spots because they were right before teams that can’t move. So they each fell down from one from 8 to 13 and one from 9 to 14 which is a lot of pool money lost. So uh Marlins and the Cardinals are kind of the teams that get massively hosed. And your big winners so far are the Giants, the Royals, and the Rays. But we’ll have to see. You know, big winners right now don’t really matter until we see what the top six is. in a draft specifically that has kind of one star and then some good players, but one player that we’re all kind of drooling over. So, the Mets haven’t come up yet. So, that means they’re going to fall, right? At this point, they already announced that the Reds are 19 or 18. So, Cleveland is 19. We know that. So, be falling to 24. So, we uh we’re just kind of waiting to see on, you know, what’s next, who who is sixth, who is lower than that. Um, yeah. Yeah, the the Twins have have won the lotto before, but again, they just had the second overall pick. So, we’ll have to see. I mean, they moved up when they got um the last time the Twins got helped out in the in the lottery. They got Walker Jenkins. So, I’d like to not have that happen again for the sake of the Guardians. So, someone mentioned this here. Uh, the Mariners are not at 24. They have to move. They’ll move up one spot is what’s going to happen because everyone moved down. Um if they were supposed to be actually I don’t think they would be 24 because they made the the championship series, but that might be after teams move down. Um I’d have to look at exactly the order, but the Mets now fall back um from 14 to 24. They have to pick 24. So I’d have to look and see where the Mariners would be, but the Mets are guaranteed 24. And now we’re going to find out who’s six. So we don’t know. This could be any number. Kansas City Kansas City Royals are sixth. So I’ll uh you know, hey, they moved up. That’s great. I’m kind of glad a division team does not have a higher pick. There’s some good talent. Um if I looked at my way too early mock here, I had six being uh Tyler Bell, the shortstop from Kentucky with Gio Rios, left-handed pitcher, being my sleeper pick at six. Um Pirates or Pirates land at five now. Pirates at five. So Chicago, Minnesota, the Rays, and the Giants are still on the board. So the Pirates had the third best record. So third best chance. So they they do slip here to five. That’s a two spot drop for them. San Francisco and the Rays still on the board. Teams who had very low chances could jump higher. The Giants got fourth. Giants got fourth. So I think you were slightly ahead of me. But the Giant, I mean, heck, if you’re a Giants or Royals fan, you’re got to be happy you moved up high. Uh to me, the fourth player in this draft I had in my original mock being Drew Burus with Justin LeBron as a sleeper. You know, there’s two really standout prep guys and Grady Emerson and Joe Lombardi Lombard whose brother is, you know, top prospect with the Yankees whose dad played pro ball. And then, you know, depending on your view on AJ Garcia, Justin LeBron, Drew Burus, like those are really interesting guys. So, nice jump for the Giants. Giant Twins are third. Interesting. So, we got White Socks and Rays. Yeah, I don’t like the idea of Rock Chilowski going to the Rays or the White Socks because A, he’s in division or B goes to Tampa who will definitely benefit him a lot. Yeah. So, just with this comment here, they’re they’re they’re wrong. The the uh the Mets were slotted to pick 14th, so they fall 10 spots. They have to be 24. That’s the rule. So, I don’t know what they did wrong. Uh but now we’re going to find out who’s the top team here. I’m rooting for the Rays. It is going to be the Rays are number two. So Rock Chilowski is going to be Chicago White Sock. So the team with the best odds got him. Um so we’ll get to see a lot of Rock Chilowski. Uh but the Rays, what a you know going nine to2 is still nice. They’re going to get their choice of prep. They’re going to get their choice of you know it’s it’s a good year to pick at the top of the draft. So, it’s White Socks get Rock Chilowski. Um, and they can still screw that up. Oh, yeah. They can 100%. I mean, that’s the thing. I’m looking forward to whoever gets Rock Chilowski in five years and fixes him. Um, it’s been a really bad development for the White Sox like to the point that we joke about like take every guy that the White Sox cast off because you’re you’ll be better uh able to fix them. But yeah, so we have this situation um where the White Socks kept the first overall pick. We saw the Rays and the Giants jump up. The big winners, of course, the White Socks as they got the top overall pick, the Rays, the Giants, and the Royals. And your big losers are the Marlins and the um Marlins and the Cardinals because they fell back five spots. I don’t count the Mets as losers because they they knew that’s what was going to happen when they spent all that money. So Cleveland what could have been 20 if uh if the Mets move top six. Yeah. Okay. So the only the only difference was could have been 19 or 20. So you they’ve never picked 19 before, right? Uh I believe so. Yeah, they had picked 20. That’s where they had taken Seatheia. Um, so yeah, I was just trying to pull up the I’m going to pull up the competitive balance piece that had the Has anything changed in the competitive balance piece at this point? Uh, well, it’s just that with Edwin Diaz going, it means that there is a uh the Dodgers lose their second and fifth round picks, but the Mets gain a pick after the fourth round. So for a team like Cleveland, their third and fourth rounders move up. So, it’s about 15,000 more in spending than there would be normally. Um, I’m just trying to pull this up. So, the the Mariners should be 23rd now for the person asking and talking in chat instead of 24 because they were scheduled to be 24th, but the the Mets would fall from 14 to 24. So, the Mariners move up one. So, the Mariners are 23, the Cubs are 22, Tigers 21, Padres’s 20th. Wait, okay, no, this isn’t right. So, this is already assuming the Mets move down. That’s weird. Why does it have the Mets going to 27? Drawing 17. They fall 10 spots. No, this Yeah, but you don’t draw a number. So, this is weird because in my mock I had them at 17, but the today on the board, their little MLB draft board had the Mets at 14. So, maybe the Mets are 27th. Okay, so maybe I’m wrong here. The reason I assume they’d be 24th is because the little uh MLB Lotto board had them at 14. I had them at 17 originally. So, um you know, I think that I, you know, now I believe I could be wrong because it would mean I was originally right in this and their competitive balance uh board was wrong. So, I’ve been reading a a book and the funny thing about the previous number one overall picks, Harold Baines. Harold Baines, the White Sox took number one in 1977 as a uh basically he was cheap to sign. He turned into a great player, but they signed him significantly below what everyone else would sign someone for in 1977. If you go back and look at the money, he got a big discount. So, I think what we’re seeing here, honestly, is I think the match should have been 17. Yeah. So, that’s weird. So, I think I know why the board was all messed up because their MLB board online was listing at 16, 17, and 18, the three teams that couldn’t move up at all. So, they moved them down to the bottom slots, which is why the Mets were listed at 14. So, that is what happened. So, the Mets are picking 27th. Um, that’s where they’ll pick uh in this draft. If the Astros will pick 28th because a Hunter Brown and if Zack Allen goes back to the Diamondbacks or signs for less than 50 million, Cleveland will pick 29th. If Zack Allen signs for more than 50 million, then Cleveland will pick 30th. Um, so we got a question here. With a full season of baseball before the draft, one-third of a college career, can a player outside the top 100 move up to the top 100s? Absolutely. Uh, a guy who comes to mind, uh, is is Andrew Benitenny of the White Socks because he was a draft eligible sophomore who people really kind of slept on, didn’t talk about, and he ended up flying up draft boards that year to be, I think he was a top 10 pick in the end, maybe like ninth or maybe he was like 12th, but either way, we’ve seen guys really move up boards. Um, you know, players have transformed themselves. um put up huge seasons, kind of made themselves I don’t know if anyone’s like shot themselves so far up to like the number one overall pick from outside the top 100. I’d have to look at that. But, you know, Andrew Benenny was not on any top 100 before his draft year. Nothing’s changed. Guys who are draft eligible sophomores definitely get a little more attention than they did then. And by a little more, I mean a lot. But yeah, there’s definitely someone who we’re not even talking about right now who could go uh 19. Um Jeff, I’m going to jump. I’ll catch you later when we record tomorrow’s episode. Yep. We’ll talk some rule five. Uh I got my list already for that and I’m sure we’ll talk about this and I’ll make a comment I’m sure at the end about the Guardians getting 15,000 in pool money today. Uh technically a little more. Um I’ll discuss that here with these guys though. Cool. All right. Catch y’all later. Catch you later. Uh, so what I want to pull up really quick is the draft tracker because technically now we can say for sure that they are 19th and a year ago the difference between picking 19 and the difference between picking 20th was a difference again because it’s not just about where you pick it’s about the pool money because the pool money the more money that is in your pool that’s how much money you get total and you can spend up to 5% minus one penny and when that happens you know that’s how much money you’re allowed to spend and a team like Cleveland always spends to that and then over. So last year difference between pick 19 and pick 20 was the equivalent of uh $150,000. Uh so how much did the Cardinals lose? I I I don’t want to do this to you, bud, but 6.18 to 5 point they lost basically a million dollars in pool money, which when you add in the 5% it’s, you know, it’s even more in that regard what they could spend, but they lost a million um going up from the Royals were set to be 13th and they went from 13 to six. So the Royals got up to 7.56 a year ago. So the Royals gained $2 million. So, the Cardinals lost a million. Uh, 2 million gain for the Royals going 9-2 for Tampa. They went from Tampa gained Tampa just gained about $4 million. So, Tampa had just a phenomenal move up. And then the Giants, I believe, are picking four, right? Um, so with the Giants moving up to four, they gained from, let me look, they gained 2.7 million. So, yep. The Royals gained about 2 million 2.7 million to the uh uh 2.7 to the Giants. And the big listen, the White Socks are the big winners because I Rock Chilowski is about the highest rated guy I have had in a few years as the top overall pick right now. Things can always change. Um but he just seems to to do it all and I I was going to look that up earlier. I believe, you know, he is a he’s just a guy who’s grown up in the game. His dad, I think, is a coach. Um or maybe um Dan Chilowski. Um he his his dad was a minor league baseball player. His dad was a first round pick in the 1991 draft, as a matter of fact, um by the St. Louis Cardinals. So, there we go. 1991 catcher uh sorry, pick 39 overall. So that wasn’t a first rounder even though that uh they UCLA’s site wants to tell me that he was. But his dad um is a scout for the Reds. So he is his dad was a major leager. He’s a scout for the Reds. He’s the top overall guy um who uh probability of an outfield impact outfield bat. So, I you know it in my mock I had them going with a prep arm uh because they’ve gone a little bit more that way. If I was looking at my mock, which again, you know, I have to update and change. Uh the top hitters, uh Von Lackey, the catcher from Georgia Tech who doesn’t have power but is a supreme athlete. Blake Bowen. Blake Bowen can make some sense. Um you know, he he he started to show a little bit more power. He was previously kind of a four tool guy. Hey, Jay Sarah is about as good of a high school program as there is in this entire country. So, Blake Bowen could be a guy to watch. He’s I mean, then again, I also feel like that dude is raising so quickly that I don’t know if he’d be here just based on my mock. Um, you know, he’s a guy I’d look at at that pick. Uh, if they liked older brothers, Eric Becker, shortstop of Virginia, is kind of in that range. Brady Harris has a lot of interesting tools if they want to go with a a prep outfielder, but they love California kids. So, if I’m redoing my mock, which hopefully I can get done before Christmas, uh Blake Bowen would be the guy I would probably pencil into Cleveland. Um they like younger brothers, but not as much as as I almost said I do, but I don’t want that to get clipped. Uh Trevor Condan is very different than his brother. His speed over power. Um also in this class in that range is um I’m going to get it wrong because I I easily confuse myself is Jiren Evanula. uh whose brother uh is you know in Cleveland system so they could get you know his younger brother who’s got some Sal Frilic vibes to it. There’s a lot of younger brothers in this class. Um there’s a lot of guys who kind of stand out in that regard. Um you know there’s there’s even I in my mock I had the Dodger sleeper pick being Matt Patansky who’s a shortstop from Archbishop Moulder High School in uh who’s committed to Kentucky both as a quarterback and as a shortstop. So you know there’s some Ohio kids. It’s It’s going to be interesting. Cleveland again. Uh I hope Zack Allen goes back to Arizona uh just to help uh Cleveland get a little bit of a higher pick. Uh here’s the problem. He lost all of last year. He didn’t have a very good year last year. There’s a lot of swing and miss. I mean I would think I would think Lavallet is going to be I I I would bet due to some of his struggles trying to rebuild some confidence. He starts a year in lowe. if you’re maybe he touches high A, but then I think there’s a good chance that he doesn’t get up to double A for two years and they like to guys to spend I mean I think he is three like the end of three years to four years away from the big leagues. Three to four years like they’re going to slow play him. You know, he had the injury. There’s he’s they got to work on his swing. Um, people got really mad at me, but it’s just the plain simple truth. Like, I don’t have a single success story of a guy in college with a 25% K rate as a hitter. Um, people like to bring up Aaron Judge. His was 21 at his worst. Or they’ll bring up like Mark Reynolds. Mark Reynolds was was had a lower K rate in college than Jayce Lavallet. It’s it’s a hard thing to overcome. So, he’s going to take some work. He is not a fastmoving pro prospect. He’s not a guy with that strong hit tool. Great traits, great power. um he can probably make it work even if he is like a a 30 grade 35 grade hitter, but it’s going to take a while. Um you know, it’s typically guys who are more hit over power who move quicker. So, um yeah, that that’s where I kind of see him being that’s why he’s not a top 10 prospect to me. just um yeah, I just I I don’t I don’t have one example of a guy who had his K rate as a in their draft year um successfully transitioning to the to major to pro baseball and that just made him kind of a guy that I I had as is significantly lower. But I get I get it at the same time. If you just want to throw down a lot ticket and bet on ceiling, if you’re playing some out of the park baseball and you’re just clicking on potential and seeing who’s got the highest potential, he was one of the three highest potentials at that point in the draft. A lot has to go right for it to work. But like if you’re just going to, you know, bet all of it on, you know, 21 and a roulette wheel instead of trying to bet on a red or black, that was Jayce Lavallet. Um, so they went big. There’s no doubt. And with him and Schubart in particular, they went very big both on power and size. Yeah, it’s, you know, I I thought that that was an interesting deal. And like I said, if you’re a um if you’re a Guardians fan, it meant your third and fourth round picks move up relative to all other things. So, between that and the Mets officially moving down, Cleveland gained about $165,000 in pool money. And again, I know people love to focus on the negative, but all the things you can criticize this organization on, and there are many things you can, uh, one the one thing you can’t do is the draft. They always spend not just the full pool, but they go beyond and spend that 5% extra. If you’re like, well, it’s only 5% because if you spend more than 5%, you lose your first round pick the next year. So, it’s I would love to see a team go crazy. Honestly, I would. I would love to see a team. I think one could made a case the year Cleveland had the top overall pick, there was a lot more depth in that class. Like in the next year’s class did not look as good. I can take off my headphones because I’m not listening to the draft anymore. So, um, you know, I I could see here if you look at the draft, I don’t think anyone’s going to ever do it because you’re never that confident in how a draft looks, but if you see a draft that doesn’t look as strong, I would love to see a team go crazy and just spend like mad in the draft and not care if they lose a first and sign multiple players who have first round value by floating them down the board and just completely disrupt the system. Like, if you’re in the Mets, go wild, you know, do do that situation. I would love to see a team actually do that because I think you could really in some respects dominate a draft year so much it doesn’t matter if you lose picks the next year. You have a lesser dra you have a lesser class. Who cares? You you signed five first rounders this year. Who cares if you lose three first rounders, you know, three picks next year? So, I’d love to see a team do that. Uh in terms of Diaz, I’m kind of surprised he just didn’t get more years. Um I thought like I was like, “Oh, I’m surprised he only got 69 million. Didn’t he opt out of like 101 million?” It is the highest average value for a reliever. I get it. He was going for a I actually don’t Isn’t he in his 30s? I was kind of surprised that, you know, he didn’t want more long-term, but you know, I I I understand it is a big thing to set the highest ever um average uh salary at a position. So, I get that. That is certainly something that matters to players. So, I’d be kind of curious um you know, between that and Schwarber. It was we had some some movement today and then see what shakes loose. And then we also have to, you know, tomorrow will be the uh the draft lottery. Uh not the draft. Today was the draft lottery. I’m tired. Uh tomorrow is the rule five draft. And you know, I think I think there’s a lot of interesting names. I think it was kind of fascinating to see the Von Gryom deal with the Red Sox because the Red Sox went out and traded Von G. I like Isaiah Jackson who they got in that trade. I think that’s a good value for them because I’m not much of a Von Gryom guy anymore to begin with, but they opened up a 40man spot unless they typically, you know, you make those moves after you’ve signed someone to make it preemptively makes me think like the Red Sox see someone they’re going to get. And I’ve got my somewhere around here. I have it when we do the show. I’ve got a list of seven names I’m going to talk about tonight. So, the rule five in Cleveland, you know, that’s where they got Eric Sabowski in the minor league section. The major league section of the rule five draft. I don’t know if I have time tonight. Cleveland has been awful. They’ve lost, you know, um, Hector Rondon. They’ve lost Anthony Santandere. They’ve lost Willie Tvaris. They also made a trade to make that happen. Um, they’ve lost, and I’m forgetting names. They’ve lost so many good players. And Trevor Stefen or Tom Wendell, pick your choice. Switch reliever is the single greatest rule five selection they’ve made. They’ve had no luck in the rule five. They’re due for some good luck. So, I hope we see some with that. It’s it’s it is what it is. But it looks like I appreciate the 70 or so of you hanging on while I just ramble. Um yes, Trevor. That’s why like Trevor Stefen is their most successful rule five pick. Um it’s it’s him or Tom Wendell who was born in Scotland. Believe that was his name. Um let me just double check that. uh a Scottish pitcher who they took. They have they have just struck out constantly in the role five draft. U no Tom Wendell is not born in Scotland. So this isn’t the right guy. I’m trying to think a pitcher in the 80s who was born in Scotland who was their um their best pick. Tom Wendell is a weird grab for a guy who uh he never even made it to the big leagues. So that’s that’s okay. I I’ve spent too much time uh covering the draft. That’s the guy who was a a second rounder back in 2013 and that name apparently stuck with me. But yeah, Trevor Stefen and then it’s going to bother me. Um another reliever. They just have not ever had any success. I mean, Eric Sabowski is probably at this point had more value than either of them. And he was the minor league section in the rule five draft. Um but it’s a pretty good rule five draft year. There there’s hitters, there’s pitchers, there’s a lot of interesting players. We’re going to get into all of that today. Um, I’m sure we’ll do a little bit of recap on the draft just in terms of things have shuck shook out for the Guardians. We now know they’ll pick 19 and we know that third and fourth rounders have moved up. Um, you know, and the division got so much better. Um, just in terms of their own draft position. No, thank John’s one of our everyday, so I appreciate that. Um, I I’m sure I could bother John. He got to see a lot of these some of these guys in the Cape. Uh, but yeah, that’s why we do this, right? It’s it’s I feel like my goal with the podcast is always the why. Like why is something happening? Um my analysis can be hit or miss. That’s that’s anyone. Like no one’s batten a thousand at this game. Uh but it’s always to explain the why. Like why did those teams move up? Why did teams fall backwards? And then when I get it wrong, like I messed up the Mets pick. Mike is probably gone. I owe an apology. I wanted to figure out the why of it. And I was like, “Oh, it’s because they shuffled their board in a weird way.” But my job is always to explain the why first and then give my random thoughts analysis. Um I I think I think he’d take a bit. Isn’t he only in double A? I mean he’s a great I also don’t think the Dodgers would be willing to trade him. I got to be real honest. Um he’s one of the top outfield prospects in baseball. I saw someone mention like trying to get um Depala for um is this an outdated list? I’m looking Oh, this is the because I’m not looking at the draft. Um, you know, uh, I think Justin said he would drive Steven Quan to the airport to get him. Well, I got it wrong, Mike. I always like to apologize and figure out why I get things wrong. That’s that’s always the thing. Thank you, Disco Golf Dom. Another one of our everydayers, but yeah, it’s it’s the job is to explain the why and the understanding of it. Um, and you know, I I want to make a game that I’m always trying to to learn more and share that. It’s it’s I’m a teacher by day, so I’m trying to kind of bring that to the podcast as well. Um, and hopefully not be annoying in doing it. Um, so yeah, I’m going to go see why it sounds like my my daughter is coming through the floor. I want to thank you all for joining us for nearly 45 minutes, even though the guardians were only temporarily to the side of it. And in the past, we’ve gotten more fan bases. We only had um a few Cardinals fans in here. So, thank you to those who joined us um in that way. And again, thank you to everyone who joined us tonight. Uh I appreciate you jumping in and having fun. I love the draft. It was like one of my first passions in life being a kid of the 80s. You know, Cleveland sports teams were often not good into the 90s. The drafts were where you got talent. And it’s it’s something that has just stuck with me my whole life. So, thank you for joining me on something that is kind of a flight of fancy and uh appreciate each and every one of you. Thank you so much. And go go Guardians Go.

The MLB 2026 Draft Lottery is live at 5:30 PM ET at the Winter Meetings. Tune into Locked On Guardians as we breakdown the lottery and impact for the Guardians draft and MLB overall in real-time.