Week 14 Recap

Victory Number 5 in our current streak! After starting 0-3, the Texans have gone 8-2, and this latest dub was a critical and well-earned one, with Houston taking down Kansas City in Arrowhead. The game was the definition of a defensive slugfest, with our offense barely having breathing room, and our defense legitimately traumatizing Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Thanks to some pretty poor choices on 4th downs by Andy Reid, the Texans were able to get the step ahead they needed to come away with the win.

Elsewhere in the AFC, the Jags fully took advantage of the Colts being down Daniel Jones to cement their current position atop the AFC South, the Bills eked out a close win against the Bengals, and the Chargers managed an OT win against Phily. Nothing really went our way outside of our game, but that's alright because the Texans gained a significant boost in playoff chances with the win over KC.

As a reminder, the ESPN Playoff Machine is live! You can use this to play around with all sorts of game result scenarios and see what the playoff matchups and seeds can look like.

Current AFC Playoff Picture

1. Denver Broncos (11-2)

2. New England Patriots (11-2)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

6. Buffalo Bills (9-4)

7. Houston Texans (8-5)

The Texans are currently in the 7th seed playoff spot, and remain one game behind the Jaguars for the AFC South lead.

Best possible position by end of week:

• 3rd Seed

Worst possible position by end of week:

• 8th in AFC

According to the NYT Playoff Calculator, if everything goes the Texans way this week, they would end the week with a 97% chance to make playoffs.

If everything goes against the Texans this week, they would end the week with a 75% chance to make playoffs.

What the Texans really need to essentially secure a playoff spot, is a win vs either the Chargers in Week 17 or the Colts in Week 18, coupled with one other win (either both of those games, or one of them plus a win against AZ or against Las Vegas).

Key Games:

Texans vs. Cardinals

• Desired Winner: Texans

The Texans have gathered up some genuinely impressive wins during this run, beating many opponents who fans had penciled in as losses before the season even began. Now we get to an under-performing Cardinals team, who many may view as the quintessential "trap game". I don't really believe in trap games as much as I do "any given Sunday", so I fully believe the team will be prepared for this. Historically, the Texans have not exactly wowed us when faced with teams who on paper look like an "easy matchup". But historically, the Texans have also floundered in games like this last week's matchup vs the Chiefs. This would be another welcome indicator that things are truly changing for the better here if the Texans can show us a dominant win that they should be capable of.

Jets @ Jaguars

• Desired Winner: Jets

Short and simple reasoning on this one: If the Jets win, and the Texans win, Houston will be on top of the AFC South and in the 3rd Seed. The Jets have not done much to show this is likely, but to echo the above, any given Sunday…

Colts @ Seahawks

• Desired Winner: Seahawks

We've witnessed the Colts experience literally the polar opposite trajectory from us this season. Now they're down their 1st, 2nd, and possibly 3rd String QBs, and are ready to bring Philip Rivers back into the fold. Root for the Seahawks to put the nail in Indy's coffin in the playoff race. This will not only clear space in the AFC South Title hunt, but also make even more buffer room for the wildcard spots in the AFC.

Other Relevant Games

Ravens @ Bengals

• Desired Winner: Bengals

Ravens are in the wildcard hunt at 6-7. Getting them to 6-8 won't be a death sentence for their playoff hopes with the AFC North underperforming, but it would be a huge hit to their wildcard chances, which helps our playoff hopes.

Dolphins @ Steelers

• Desired Winner: N/A

The Dolphins, somehow, remain in the playoff race, and the Steelers have recently taken a temporary hold of the AFC North crown. If the Steelers win, they threaten the AFC South champ with possibly worse seeding, but also clear out a team from the wildcard race.

If the Dolphins win, they significantly reduce the threat of the AFC North topping the AFC South in seed positioning, but there's another team in the playoff mix in that case.

Chargers @ Chiefs

• Desired Winner: Chiefs

Chargers have a game up on the Texans as of now, but we matchup with them in Week 17 to directly control that positioning. In the meantime, it still would benefit us to have a potential wildcard team to get knocked down a peg, which will happen either way. Overall, the Chargers are the bigger threat by a decent amount, but I don't think anyone would be upset to see the Chiefs truly out of the playoff hunt all together.

Bills @ Patriots

• Desired Winner: N/A

As of right now, the Texans could still technically take the #1 seed in the AFC. It would require at least 3 losses by both the Patriots and Broncos, but it is a possibility. Because of that, a Bills win comes with benefits, but the flip side of that is the Bills are in a similar position of being a game ahead of us in the wildcard race. Matching their record while holding the head to head tiebreaker over them would be beneficial.

Recommended Viewing Schedule

• Sunday Early Game: Cardinals @ Texans (FOX)
• Sunday Afternoon Game: Colts @ Seahawks (CBS)
• Monday Night Game: Dolphins @ Steelers (ESPN)

tl;dr, Who do we want to win?

• Texans over Cardinals
• Jets over Jaguars
• Seahawks over Colts
• Chiefs over Chargers
• Bengals over Ravens