Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview & Prediction | PFF

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview & Prediction | PFF

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We’re going to look at Justin Herb. You mentioned it hasn’t been pretty. It wasn’t pretty this past Monday. It hasn’t been pretty for the better part of the last month. You look at his last four games, Trevor. It almost sounds shocking to say for as big a fans as we are of Justin Herbert, but a 44.4 passing grade over his last four games. Now, a big part of this is the offensive line, the lowest graded offensive line in the league. Bottom four pass blocking grade, worst run blocking grade by a mile and all the injuries they’ve dealt with. And it’s really coming to a head now where Herbert looks like he’s rushed in the pocket. He looks he’s missing throws that he doesn’t usually miss. Air mailing balls. He’s dealing with injuries. Obviously, he’s out there playing with a broken hand. But you see that bottom number over the last four weeks under pressure on 46% of his drop backs for the season. Trevor, the only two quarterbacks on only two qualified quarterbacks under pressure more often are Shador Sanders and Justin Fields. Two guys who are very much known to hold the football way too long. This is on their offensive line. They have to find a way to find any sort of pass protection. And it felt like on Monday against the Eagles that Herbert was getting hit every single time he dropped back. I I think there’s a chance that Chris Jones could just have a field day on this team and Steve Spagnola with the blitz packages. It could really work this week. I know a lot about the Chiefs pass rush. They’ve been criticized and it’s just nothing other than Chris Jones, but they have an opportunity here to take this game over and Herbert looks rushed in the pocket. He’s been inaccurate lately. It has not looked good on offense. They found a way to scratch out ugly wins with the help of their defense, but I just don’t know that Justin Herbert can play at this level and beat this team, even though the Chiefs have been struggling on offense themselves. I’m curious about this. So, while I’m talking about the Chiefs side of things, I I was just looking at some of the numbers from that week one matchup that they had where the Chargers uh beat the Chiefs earlier this season. We’ve got passes or plays I should say to Maris Brown of 49 yards, Travis Kelce of 37 yards, and Taekwon Thornton of 38 yards. Could you look up for me really quick while I continue this what the target depth on those plays were? Because it’s very like that is a very interesting uh part of this matchup because we know that the Chargers and Jesse Mentor have been very very good this season at limiting those explosive plays deep down the field. So, I wondered if, you know, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Naggie, if they sort of got the upper hand on Jesse Mter because that’s going to be an interesting uh part of this game if they still think that they can get open deep because just not many teams have been able to get open deep versus this Los Angeles Chargers team. But going back to the the Chiefs offense overall, Chargers, they’re 20th in run defense grade since week 10. So, they haven’t been super stout against the run. We know that the big uh reason why the Chiefs offense has struggled as much as it has is because there’s just no complimentary run game uh for with their running backs out of the back field. Patrick Mahomes has been uh somebody who’s had to pick up a lot of rushing yards with his legs to keep things going. And we just have not had a really good onsched run game here for the Chiefs and it’s a big reason why they’ve been struggling. So, can they get a little bit more production now that Isaiah Poacho is back? Like, can they get more production out of him? Kareem Hunt? I I don’t really think that you can expect a big ceiling from him. Even a couple of weeks ago when he had his most productive day, it was a heavy volume day from him and that was the reason why you saw a lot of yards from him. It’s not like he was super explosive as he had been in his younger years in the NFL. And then ultimately, uh, Dalton, five drops for the Kansas City Chiefs against the Houston Texans this past week in their loss. And it was a variety of different players that were dropping the football. And unfortunately for them, it was a lot of key moments, a lot of third downs, a lot of fourth downs for them. And then the last drop that Travis Kelce had bounces off his hands, it’s intercepted by Aziz Alshshire. And that was basically game at that point. So for the Chiefs, I I think that I think we’re going to get a much more focused group this week. And so I I am taking Kansas City to win this game at home. The Chargers are just so beat up. They don’t look right on offense. I I loved what I saw from Omari Hampton. And so if Omarian Hampton has a really big game against the Chiefs, I think that they could certainly go in there and win. But outside of that, think that this Kansas City team is going to be still supremely motivated. And maybe not motivated, obviously, they can’t win the division anymore, so they’re not motivated for the division, but it’s more of a sense of like individual pride. I’ve always felt like this Kansas City team has played with a lot of that throughout the run of what is their their dynasty over the last five or six years. And I don’t think those players are okay with the way that they played and executed last week against even a really good Houston Texas defense. So I think we get a more focused, disciplined, motivated version of the Kansas City Chiefs as a whole this upcoming week. Um I don’t know if they’ll be able to run the ball better. You’ll let me know about the the the deep passing stats, but ultimately I just think that they’re going to do enough to win this game. I’m going to go 24 to 20. Kansas City wins this one. So Mahomes in that first game was four for eight on 10 plus yard throws. The three that you’re talking about and here’s the fun part. Of those four completions, three of them were in the fourth quarter. They only completed one pass over 10 airs in the first three quarters of that game. And that was an absolute laser beam to Taekquin Thornton on a deep corner route that actually there wasn’t that bad coverage on. The other two, Travis Kelce, there was a busted coverage on a run through and a screen that or I should say a run through on a fake screen that resulted in a touchdown and then he just Mahomes made a ridiculous crossbody throw improvising to Hollywood Brown. Just honestly, it’s one of those throws from Mahomes where you just go, what what are you going to do about it, right? It’s just a Mahomes throw. So, I mean, three plays, one was a really good play call, two to the other two were just perfect throws by Patrick. But, I I think this game I think it’s it’s going to be ugly. I think it’s going to be an ugly defensive game. You’ve got two struggling offenses right now. I’m going to take the Chiefs at home as well, 20 to 17. I I think Mahomes makes just enough plays here, but it’s more to me this Chargers offensive line. How many weeks can they continue to survive this and win ball games against good teams and they’ve got a really tough stretch to end their season here. I think Houston is on their schedule as well. I believe they have to play Denver again. You just look at this O line and you wonder when is the bottom going to fall out. I think they’re gonna have a lot of problems blocking Chris Jones. And then when Steve Spagnolo does bring the blitzes, man, Herbert’s got to be better. He’s got to get rid of the football a little bit quicker. Man, I thought I was gonna get you on this one. This This was a hard one cuz And you do you have both you have both teams with serious flaws in their offense right now cuz I I don’t want to pick the Chargers. I just don’t want to pick the Chargers. And maybe Chargers fans can come back and dunk on me if if they end up winning and and I let one get away with getting up on you on the scoreboard here. Um, I again I just I think we’re going to get a a very motivated and focused um prideful in a good way Chiefs team that that is not willing to settle on the mistakes uh that they made last week. So I think Chiefs win as well. So, we’re both picking the Chiefs

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema preview the matchup between The Los Angeles Chargers and The Kansas City Chiefs.

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